metaforecast/data/metaculus-questions.csv

"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).
How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:
""Multimodal Machine Learning”, ""multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning"", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---45 for the calendar year 2017 
---71 for the calendar year 2018 
---91 for the calendar year 2019 
",99,3
"Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:
Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.
Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?
This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.
",20,3
"Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),
Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]
Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.
There remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a ""termination shock"" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. 
There are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). 
Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?
Given the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:
Large scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.
",35,3
"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.
",319,3
"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:
The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.
--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)
CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.
The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.
As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.
Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?
This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.
The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.
In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.
",174,3
"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","[]","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).
In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. 
Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).
But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?
For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.
",292,3
"As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/","Metaculus","[]","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.
Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. 
One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. 
What will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?
This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.
[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:
For these purposes we will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.
--- 
Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). 
--- 
Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [""Winogrande"" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%
--- 
Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)
--- 
Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) 
By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)
",129,3
"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. 
The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. 
The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. 
What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?

Data
====

Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).
",22,3
"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).
The proposition in question will be taken as: 
The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.
That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:
--- 
If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)
--- 
Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)
",2621,3
"On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","[]","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.
As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.
On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?
[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)
Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).
If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.
",230,3
"What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus","[]","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) 
In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. 
The next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.
What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?
The question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. 
In the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.
If the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. 
If the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.
If the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. 
A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. 
",40,3
"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.
A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).
What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.
",59,3
"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:
---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. 
And:
---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. 
The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:
There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. 
",138,3
"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","[]","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.
What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.
",232,3
"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","[]","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.
The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high.""
On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?
The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low.""
If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.
",11,3
"How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.
You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.
Foreseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.
The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).
How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.
",114,3
"When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/","Metaculus","[]","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.
Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. 
New Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. 
New Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. 
In addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket ""Vulcan"" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.
In short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).
But first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.
And there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.
When will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?
This question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.
",80,3
"Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.
Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).
Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.
Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022
This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.
This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.
This question resolves negatively otherwise.
",229,3
"Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)
The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?
This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.
",123,3
"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.
In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.
Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).
",238,3
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?
This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. 
",115,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
",35,3
"What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","[]","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).
The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). 
[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.
The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).
[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.
Although seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.
What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?
Resolution
This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.
In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.
",70,3
"By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. 
I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. 
Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. 
Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.
",95,3
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. 
The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. 
",104,3
"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.
Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.
",286,3
"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus","[]","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.
This question asks: 
What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).
Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.
It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.
Resolution criteria: 
With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.
The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.
",79,3
"How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/","Metaculus","[]","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...""
Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.
This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.
60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?
How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?
The resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).
In order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.
The count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.
If the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.
The Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.
Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. 
",83,3
"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).
When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? 
This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.
If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.
",142,3
"Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Will the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:
---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. 
And:
---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. 
In the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:
At present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19
The question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.
The consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. 
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. 
",56,3
"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus:
---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) 
Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.
Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?
This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO
If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.
Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. 
",41,3
"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.
Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as 
a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.
thus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.
Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?
---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. 
---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. 
",31,3
"What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/","Metaculus","[]","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: 
---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. 
---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy"" 
---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour ""indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods"", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. 
---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost ""error-free"" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. 
---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become ""commonplace"" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study 
---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past 
---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century 
---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required 
---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying 
What percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)
What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?
In 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. 
Examples: 
---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. 
---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. 
---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. 
The term ""robotic judges"" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase ""Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying"" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. 
",19,3
"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.
If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. 
",104,3
"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.
The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.
[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.
Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?
This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.
See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)
",203,3
"If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). 
---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). 
The University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.
Let's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:
---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). 
---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). 
---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. 
If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?
For the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.

Closing condition

This question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:
1-- 
The date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.
2-- 
The resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).
3-- 
The closing date stated on this question.
The reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.

Resolution details

The resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.
For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.
If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
",24,3
"Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).
The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.
The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. 
This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?
Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.
",147,3
"How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/","Metaculus","[]","related questions on Metaculus:
---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) 
As of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.
Some activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).
How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?
This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.
",27,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
",49,3
"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.
One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.
Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?
The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.
",225,3
"Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.
As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland""
More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:
Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?
This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.
",12,3
"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.
The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"".
Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:
---danger to the life or health of the mother 
---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus 
---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest 
In November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.
Selection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called ""[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)"" and ""[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)"" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).
Opposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the ""abortion compromise"". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.
In February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.
Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?
If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.
Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.
Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.
",80,3
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.
What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?
The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. 
You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] 
",55,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.
For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",148,3
"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.
The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.
This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?
If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.
For convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:
Date,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 
",70,3
"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. 
Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.
This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?
By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.
By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.
This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.
",127,3
"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","[]","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?
I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.
I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). 
See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).
So what do you think?
When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""?
This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. 
Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). 
If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"".
",236,3
"Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.
If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?
435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.
.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.
.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. 
",171,3
"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. 
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.
What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?
This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).
",69,3
"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","[]","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). 
Data sources:
---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) 
---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) 
---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) 
What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?
This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.
In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. 
",48,3
"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","[]","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):
4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.
4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.
The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.
[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.
When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.
If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.
",356,3
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?
This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. 
",50,3
"By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). 
Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
By By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. 
By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.
Methodology
The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: 
When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. 
If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.
",109,3
"What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).
What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?
What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?
Specifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.
For example:
---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 
---for Sep-2020 this value is: 
If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
",32,3
"Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.
Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.
Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.
In view of the above, this question asks:
Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?
--- 
This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.
--- 
It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.
Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.
In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. 
",68,3
"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.
Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.
In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. 
",214,3
"What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.
Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,
This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.
Will his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?
Define a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,
--- 
The Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings
--- 
Forbes college rankings
--- 
The Princeton Review Dream Colleges
The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.
This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.
",43,3
"How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?
How will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?
This question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.
",103,3
"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. 
Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? 
We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?
Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, 
1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: 
1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. 
1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.
1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). 
1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. 
AND 
2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). 
*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.
",384,3
"When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. 
In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.
Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?
Well ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? 
To separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.
",294,3
"When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/","Metaculus","[]","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. 
North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.
[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.
Many people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.
[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)
In 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)
This question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?
This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.
This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.
The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)
",109,3
"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/","Metaculus","[]","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.
[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. 
The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).
In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?
This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). 
If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.
",51,3
"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.
When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?
This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.
'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.
",101,3
"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).
According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.
Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?
This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.
If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.
If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.
",48,3
"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.
This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.
For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.
",72,3
"Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),
Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.
Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.
No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.
As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous ""seazone"" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.
The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.
Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?
This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.
",30,3
"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/","Metaculus","[]","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).
How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?
The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.
The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).
",39,3
"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[]","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.
Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.
This question asks:
How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?
The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. 
Related questions:
---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) 
---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) 
---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) 
---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) 
",91,3
"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.
What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?
This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. 
",214,3
"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)
There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.
BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?
After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.
",60,3
"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? 
The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.
""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:
Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.
",105,3
"When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.
SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
Starship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, ""Starship"" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:
---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative 
---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) 
---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. 
---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. 
---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). 
To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.
(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)
(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)
",155,3
"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.
Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).
In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: 
Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?
This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.
",158,3
"Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.
President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.
Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. 
Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: 
1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)
2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)
3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)
So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. 
Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.
If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.
",63,3
"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.
The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.
Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).
Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.
Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?
This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).
If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. 
",36,3
"Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.
European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of ""enriched"" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.
In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the ""[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)"" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project ""[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)"". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.
[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.
---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. 
---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. 
---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. 
---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. 
---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. 
---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). 
---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). 
---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. 
In September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that ""the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.
Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?
This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. 
In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.
",89,3
"Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).
Jeff McAulay argued,
Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.
Stephen Zoepf countered,
I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.
Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?
If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
",89,3
"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).
The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).
In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.
When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?
This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.
By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.
To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" 
",132,3
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).
In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.
As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?
This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.
In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",71,3
"When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/","Metaculus","[]","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.
Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.
Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.
When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:
1-- 
Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.
2-- 
Australia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).
3-- 
Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.
Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).
If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).
Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. 
",85,3
"When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/","Metaculus","[]","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.
It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.
Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.
The first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.
[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.
As of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)
When will the first human mission to Venus take place?
This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.
The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. 
",18,3
"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[]","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).
Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:
1-- 
[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.
2-- 
[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.
3-- 
[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.
4-- 
[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.
Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.
In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:
--- 
Penn Treebank: 13
--- 
WikiText-2: 7
--- 
WikiText-103: 18
--- 
1B Words: 5
Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.
The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. 
Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. 
",23,3
"Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.
However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.
These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. 
By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?
",146,3
"When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","[]","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.
When will the mammoth be revived?
This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.
The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.
",49,3
"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","[]","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.
When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?
This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:
Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.
Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.
[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
",73,3
"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. 
The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).
When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?
This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"".
",138,3
"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. 
(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)
When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?
The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.
",38,3
"When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/","Metaculus","[]","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.
Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.
French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.
In March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.
The Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.
Assoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs
When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?
This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:
1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and 
2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. 
Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.
In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.
",15,3
"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).
The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.
Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).
[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.
Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?
This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.
",27,3
"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/","Metaculus","[]","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.
New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.
In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.
What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. 
Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. 
",87,3
"Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.
MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.
Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?
This question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:
A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.
B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)
This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.
",34,3
"Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).
The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. 
Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. 
[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. 
[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. 
His successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).
With the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. 
But there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.
But will he? 
Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?
Question resolves positive if: 
--- 
Xi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or
--- 
Xi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or
--- 
Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.
",297,3
"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","[]","Related questions:
[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)
[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)
This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.
According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.
When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?
This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).
If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.
",147,3
"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years.
How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?
The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. 
",49,3
"If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). 
---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). 
The University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.
Let's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:
---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). 
---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. 
---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). 
If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?
For the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.

Closing condition

This question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:
1-- 
The date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.
2-- 
The resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).
3-- 
The closing date stated on this question.
The reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.

Resolution details

The resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.
For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.
If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
If the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
",24,3
"In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).
This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.
In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021
",146,3
"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:
""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?""
The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.
",171,3
"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),
Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.
From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),
The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.
In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.
“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”
The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. 
From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),
a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.
You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).
Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?
This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:
--- 
The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).
--- 
Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
",36,3
"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","[]","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).
While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).
When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?
The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. 
The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).
Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. 
The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.
The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. 
",25,3
"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","[]","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
The question will resolve:
1--Rishi Sunak 
2--Michael Gove 
3--Jeremy Hunt 
4--Priti Patel 
5--None of the above 
The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.
If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. 
",160,3
"Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),
An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.
The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.
[...]
Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.
Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.
[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), ""Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.""
Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?
This question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A ""prominent platform"" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,
--- 
Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.
--- 
Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.
--- 
A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.
Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. 
",15,3
"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),
The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.
Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.
If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.""
Will we find life on Mars by 2050?
This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.
",65,3
"When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/","Metaculus","[]","The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.
[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or ""National Debt"" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)
[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)
This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?
Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.
",111,3
"In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/","Metaculus","[]","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,
According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.
Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. 
This question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can ""grab"" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
This question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter ""grabby aliens"", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.
ETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as "">10^16"".
",126,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” 
On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:
--- 
Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship
--- 
Receive Medicaid and Medicare
--- 
Vote in Presidential primaries
On the other hand, they cannot:
--- 
Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections
--- 
Get access to other government programs
--- 
Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator
The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.
Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).
On the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:
40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.
Even if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): 
To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the ""New States"" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. 
Although there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):
While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.
What do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.
",398,3
"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.
[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. 
If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
*As judged by a metaculus admin.
",66,3
"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.
[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?
This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. 
If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.
If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
*As judged by a metaculus admin.
",59,3
"How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/","Metaculus","[]","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. 
How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. 
For a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a ""substantial portion"" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A ""substantial portion"" here is defined as:
---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or 
---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn 
The company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.
Plant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).
In case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.
",75,3
"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/","Metaculus","[]","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)
For a precise question we'll ask:
When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?
There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).
When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)
",56,3
"Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).
Joseph F. Huttner argued,
1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]
2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]
3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]
4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.
Stephen W Snow countered,
My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.
Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.
",35,3
"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) 
In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
",534,3
"Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.
In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):
The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.
The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.
Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).
",12,3
"Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.
The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=124411317&section=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.
Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?
This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.
If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.
The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.
",14,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",64,3
"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.
According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.
In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?
In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.
",298,3
"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.
The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.
",165,3
"Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","previous Metaculus questions:
---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) 
The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.
Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.
The INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.
To date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.
As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.
",135,3
"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. 
The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. 
Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.
When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?
This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.
As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.
",27,3
"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.
Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:
---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); 
---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). 
Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?
The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:
---An explicit tax on childlessness. 
---A tax levied on each person except those with children. 
For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.
The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.
If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. 
",79,3
"Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's ""cost per life saved"" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?
GiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:
---Malaria Consortium 
---Against Malaria Foundation 
---Helen Keller International 
---Deworm the World Initiative 
---SCI Foundation 
---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] 
---END Fund's deworming program[1] 
---GiveDirectly 
If the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.
Some clarifications:
GiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say ""2019 top charities"", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.
If GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.
If GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.
If 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.
If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.
If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).
[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.
",43,3
"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.
On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).
After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.
A Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. 
According to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):
The fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. 
Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?
This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.
In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.
",403,3
"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. 
This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.
",1099,3
"When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.
This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.
Patents, announcements, and review units do not count.
*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.
",69,3
"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M.
On what date will this number reach 100M?
When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?
The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M.
If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.
",129,3
"Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/","Metaculus","[]","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .
It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.
Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",254,3
"What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?
""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:
Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.
",206,3
"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?
Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?
This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.
If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).
Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. 
",436,3
"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). 
The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
Data
According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
",133,3
"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context

Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.
This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.
",1306,3
"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.
To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.
This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? 
For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.
",232,3
"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?
This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
",89,3
"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.
When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?
This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.
This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.
Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).
If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.
",188,3
"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.
Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. 
---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. 
---Platforms must be open to the public. 
",178,3
"What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.
As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.
Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:
---2008: $312 
---2009: $138 
---2010: $284 
---2011: $336 
---2012: $375 
---2013: $434 
---2014 $544 
---2015 $512 
---2016 $610 
---2017 $629 
---2018 $730 
---2019 $678 
All in billions of 2019 US$.
What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?

Resolution
==========

This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).
",48,3
"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","[]","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.
[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.
Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?
Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.
",479,3
"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. 
Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?
Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. 
Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.
Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.
",968,3
"In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/","Metaculus","[]","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.
In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).
In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?
Resolution
This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as ""> Dec 24, 2035"".
",98,3
"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?
Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.
An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) 
",1064,3
"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. 
This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
",199,3
"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus:
---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) 
President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.
Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?
This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.
The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. 
",11,3
"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.
[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.
In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?
This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table.
",34,3
"When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/","Metaculus","[]","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?
This question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. 
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",23,3
"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.
The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.
This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?
If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.
Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).
",12,3
"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. 
There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.
Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.
",439,3
"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):
A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.
He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).
Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. 
---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. 
---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. 
ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively
",509,3
"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.
Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. 
The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. 
Australia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.
The number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. 
""Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.""
Low prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.
LUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).
""The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.""
In this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. 
Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?
This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. 
This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.
",26,3
"When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/","Metaculus","[]","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.
Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.
When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?
This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.
",16,3
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?
This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",44,3
"How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/","Metaculus","[]","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. 
In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), 
The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]
In 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.
If GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.
If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.
In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:
In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?
After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"".
",342,3
"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?
Resolution
This questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) 
---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) 
---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) 
---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) 
---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) 
---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) 
---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) 
---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) 
---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) 
---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) 
---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) 
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.
The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).
",379,3
"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).
GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.
Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.
Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?
",131,3
"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)
The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)
This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?
For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:
--- 
Donald Trump
--- 
Donald Trump Jr.
--- 
Eric Trump
--- 
Ivanka Trump
--- 
Tiffany Trump
--- 
Melania Trump
--- 
Barron Trump
",552,3
"Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context
=======

Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. 
As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.
Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. 
Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)
",70,3
"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
",332,3
"World Population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.
Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.
Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?
We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)
Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.
",311,3
"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.
What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?
This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. 
",67,3
"Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.
According to its website:
MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.
Recently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:
At the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.
Will MIRI exist in 2030?
This question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. 
For the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.
Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. 
If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.
In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply.
",61,3
"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/","Metaculus","[]","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).
When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?
This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).
",31,3
"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)
Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.
How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?
Resolution:
---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) 
---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) 
---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. 
Other possible world:
---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) 
See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
",230,3
"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). 
Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?
The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.
",121,3
"Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Background
==========

The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. 
With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. 
Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. 
Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.
This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.
",230,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.
Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.
By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.
There are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.
Secondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.
Moreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.
By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?
The question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",249,3
"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.
The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.
[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.
This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?
This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.
This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.
",321,3
"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).
If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.
Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.
Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.
During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).
The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.
",328,3
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?
The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.
",466,3
"By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). 
As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can ""pass a Turing test"" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.
For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).
By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?
Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) <a href=""https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/""></a>
",130,3
"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","[]","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.
However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.
Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.
Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.
When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.
For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.
",41,3
"How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.
How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?
This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.
The question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. 
",10,3
"Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. 
Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?
New resolution criteria:
This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: 
---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. 
---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. 
This question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.
Resolution will be by credible media reports.
Old resolution criteria:
This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.
",188,3
"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):
Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. 
If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.
If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. 
",245,3
"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". 
In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.
In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.
What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?
This question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.
If there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. 
",53,3
"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.
U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.
U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.
The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.
Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?
The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).
",142,3
"Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. 
There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. 
The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).
Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by &gt;= 5% in 2021?
This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for ""S.F. Bay Area"" is &lt;= $1.045mm
",40,3
"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT?
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2023.
Related question
---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) 
",116,3
"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=2).
On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).
When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt; 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.
",120,3
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",79,3
"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/","Metaculus","[]","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).
This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?
Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.
If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.
Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.
",66,3
"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).
Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.
Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.
Other Related Questions:
[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)
[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)
What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.
",29,3
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.
What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?
The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. 
You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",103,3
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).
In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.
Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?
This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.
In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
",69,3
"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. 
Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.
By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?
Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.
If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. 
",149,3
"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[]","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]
[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.
In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.
When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.
Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
",192,3
"Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?
Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.
Will the GWB be detected by 2075?
Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?
This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at &gt; 4-sigma.
",12,3
"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.
A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague.
In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):
Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)
With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.
Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask:
Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:
--- 
Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)
--- 
Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)
--- 
Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)
(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)
--- 
Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)
--- 
Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)
--- 
Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)
--- 
Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)
",22,3
"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).
The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.
What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). 
",167,3
"When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.
At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)
This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?
The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.
Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
",313,3
"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","[]","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). 
This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.
The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.
Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?
When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?
---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span. 
---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. 
---Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. 
---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. 
If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.
*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)
",152,3
"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[]","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.
[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.
How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?
This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.
",58,3
"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. 
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).
Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?
This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
",60,3
"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]
In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.
As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).
How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?
Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.
A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) 
",58,3
"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.
Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).
Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?
This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:
---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. 
---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. 
---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. 
This question resolves negatively otherwise.
",119,3
"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. 
A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).
Data sources and more information:
---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website 
---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) 
---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) 
---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) 
---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) 
---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) 
---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) 
What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. 
This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).
",72,3
"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.
[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
",58,3
"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/","Metaculus","[]","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.
The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.
What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?
We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.
Related questions:
---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) 
---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) 
---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) 
",36,3
"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.
",172,3
"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).
With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.
The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’
When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?
Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.
",223,3
"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"".
According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.
Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).
Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.
Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"".
",86,3
"What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.
What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?
This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.
",18,3
"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.
This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.
'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.
'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.
If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.
",30,3
"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.
JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:
--- 
John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.
--- 
Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. 
--- 
Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.
And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. 
It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?
",281,3
"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted.
The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.
This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:
---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. 
---There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. 
---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. 
The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.
The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.
",82,3
"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. 
[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.
And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. 
Will this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:
By start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? 
Resolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:
--- 
This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&amp;mc=true&amp;node=pt47.1.18&amp;rgn=div5).
--- 
Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"".
",83,3
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.
How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?
If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).
Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):
---2016: $890 
---2017: $823 
---2018: $617 
---2019: $592 
",228,3
"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","[]","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.
On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"".
When will the US-EU border reopen?
Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.
Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.
",17,3
"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/","Metaculus","[]","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. 
About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. 
Dates of note
--- 
For climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).
--- 
The coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. 
--- 
The newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). 
--- 
This year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).
--- 
The [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. 
Resolution
The question resolves positively if either of the following:
--- 
No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks
--- 
Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period
In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.
",68,3
"Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. 
The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. 
The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"".
Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?
This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. 
In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.
If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",156,3
"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.
Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?
The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:
---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. 
---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. 
---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. 
(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)
The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.
The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. 
",120,3
"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. 
A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. 
“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.
Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.
It also urges approval of more vaccines.
Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?
This question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:
--- 
Approval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines
--- 
Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
--- 
Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
--- 
Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19
",244,3
"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): 
The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. 
The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. 
By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):
A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.
A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.
Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?
This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. 
The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. 
Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
",90,3
"What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.
What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. &amp; Canada in 2021?
The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.
",113,3
"Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus:
---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) 
Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.
Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?
This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.
",37,3
"How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/","Metaculus","[]","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.
There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.
Data sources and more information:
---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 
---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) 
---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) 
---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) 
---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) 
---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) 
---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) 
---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) 
How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?
This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).
",76,3
"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):
on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.
Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?
This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.
",68,3
"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.
The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).
When will GTA VI be released?
This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. 
This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.
",57,3
"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:
---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). 
---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). 
",171,3
"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.
Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?
After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?
(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)
1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. 
2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. 
3--All prices are in USD. 
4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. 
",180,3
"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that 
Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make &lt;$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. 
Will Hanson win the bet? 
Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
",191,3
"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/","Metaculus","[]","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):
Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.
And:
Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.
Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.
Question: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
Resolution details:
--- 
""the last Metaculus question resolution"" is here defined as either:
------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. 
------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. 
--- 
When this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to &gt; 3000.
--- 
If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.
--- 
If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).
",145,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? 
New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).
As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.
Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.
In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) 
",348,3
"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).
At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.
He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).
Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?
This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. 
This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.
If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.
He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.
",55,3
"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.
Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)
As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)
This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?
This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.
",76,3
"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/","Metaculus","[]","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.
In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.
What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?
The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.
",516,3
"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). 
There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).
Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?
Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.
Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. 
",279,3
"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.
The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.
Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top).
Related questions:
[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)
[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)
What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
",45,3
"13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. 
The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).
In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). 
Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:
What will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.
",22,3
"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/","Metaculus","[]","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.
Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.
If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.
This question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?
Related questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)
[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.
If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.
Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.
",33,3
"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.
It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. 
Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
Resolution details:
--- 
Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.
--- 
Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.
--- 
Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.
--- 
Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.
--- 
In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).
--- 
If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.
Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.
",519,3
"In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). 
Between 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). 
In Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&amp;_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).
For detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender &amp; Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).
In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?
This question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. 
The ""Coalition"" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a ""Liberal"" parliamentarian. 
At the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. 
If the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. 
--
At the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. 
--
If party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. 
--
Only state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. 
",19,3
"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.
If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?
This question resolves:
---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. 
---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. 
---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. 
",229,3
"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. 
In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.
In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.
This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)
Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.
Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.
",503,3
"When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/","Metaculus","[]","related questions on Metaculus:
---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) 
---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) 
---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) 
The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.
All told, the set includes:
---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap 
---Riemann Hypothesis 
---P vs NP Problem 
---Navier–Stokes Equation 
---Hodge Conjecture 
---Poincaré Conjecture 
---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture 
Of these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:
[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: ""I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.""
At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) 
When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?
The question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).
",26,3
"Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).
In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).
A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).
The Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy ""would not be surprised"" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.
Racing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). 
[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have ""minimal impact"", whipping has been a ""vital tool of the sport since its inception"" and whipping allows for a horse to be ""fully tested"".
Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?
Will the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?
A rule that allows for the use of the whip only ""in the case of an emergency"" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. 
This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. 
If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. 
Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. 
",23,3
"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.
Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.
According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).
What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
Resolution
This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.
",123,3
"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. 
Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. 
However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.
When will the UK reach herd immunity &gt;53.3m for Covid-19?
This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that &gt;53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.
Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when &gt;80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. 
",204,3
"What will the World's GDP be in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. 
Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).
Currently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.
What will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?
For the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.
",132,3
"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.
What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?
This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. 
",75,3
"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. 
The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.
The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)
Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?
This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.
It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.
",33,3
"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):
Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.
As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.
When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. 
If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as ""&gt;2025-12-30"". 
In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.
",31,3
"When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).
Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).
An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.
Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.
Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?
Resolution
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.
",87,3
"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.
[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive &amp; developmental problems, liver &amp; kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.
[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.
As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.
This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.
",29,3
"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?
A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. 
Who will win? 
Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
",874,3
"When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/","Metaculus","[]","The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.
The [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:
To remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.
Other proposed rules:
Credit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.
Resources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.
Reproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.
There is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.
When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
This question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).
Tentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:
--- 
The AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.
--- 
The proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. 
--- 
The AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.
--- 
The AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.
--- 
The AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.
If the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.
If the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. 
",17,3
"Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. 
The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."" 
The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.""
Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?
The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
",22,3
"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.
Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?
The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.
This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.
If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.
",74,3
"Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.
In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&amp;s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&amp;sy=1980&amp;ey=2020&amp;ssm=0&amp;scsm=1&amp;scc=0&amp;ssd=1&amp;ssc=0&amp;sic=0&amp;sort=country&amp;ds=.&amp;br=1).
Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?
Resolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.
",44,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. 
[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).
What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?
This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",51,3
"If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.
The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&amp;KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).
If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?
The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.
If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.
If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
",299,3
"Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),
The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.
In the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).
Some have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),
According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.
In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.
Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?
This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.
",25,3
"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.
In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?
This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. 
",75,3
"When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","[]","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.
When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?
To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.
This question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.
If QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.
If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. 
",101,3
"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. 
The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.
Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?
This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).
",38,3
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)
The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?
This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*
For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).
If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.
",62,3
"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded))?
Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.
",175,3
"Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2008 financial crisis was [""considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).
According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&amp;start=1961&amp;view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).
Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?
Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.
This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).
",775,3
"How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.
We can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.
How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?
--- 
The [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.
--- 
To qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).
",25,3
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?
This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.
Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). 
Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). 
",51,3
"Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
Resolution details:
--- 
To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.
--- 
The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.
",194,3
"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. 
As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).
What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?
Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#).
",160,3
"How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/","Metaculus","[]","Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).
In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:
How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?
Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.
Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)
",52,3
"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

According to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. 
If labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. 
Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.
How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.
",18,3
"What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/","Metaculus","[]","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): 
Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.
Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.
As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.
Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.
What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?
There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.
If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.
If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",41,3
"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.
There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:
---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. 
---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" 
While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)
The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).
Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.
Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. 
",90,3
"When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

Varda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. 
As of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. 
Predictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.
When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.
",20,3
"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? 
This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.
",869,3
"By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus","[]","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.
As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. 
If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. 
Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.
By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.
",24,3
"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/","Metaculus","[]","This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.
Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.
This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?
The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.
",21,3
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. 
The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
",66,3
"What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): 
The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.
Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)
What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?
The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.
",24,3
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)
The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?
This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*
For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).
If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.
",57,3
"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.
Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?
--- 
Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.
--- 
The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. 
",14,3
"Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).
A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),
Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.
You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.
Lesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.
Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).
Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.
1-- 
The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.
2-- 
The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.
Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.
If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. 
",31,3
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).
In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.
As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?
This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.
In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",120,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?
Index
The index is constructed as follows:
---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index 
---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.
For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. 
",65,3
"When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy &gt;70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
",204,3
"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.
Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?
This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:
---Donald Trump 
---Melania Trump 
---Donald Trump Jr. 
---Ivanka Trump 
---Eric Trump 
---Tiffany Trump 
---Barron Trump 
---Jared Kushner 
",82,3
"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.
The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).
What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?
The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).
If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.
(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)
",171,3
"What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.
Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. 
January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. 
The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.
Related questions:
[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)
[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)
What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March
",69,3
"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","[]","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. 
After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).
What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",34,3
"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.
The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).
Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?
This question resolves ""yes"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.
This question resolves ""no"" if the 12-month ""Core CPI"" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.
",22,3
"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson &amp; Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.
What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?
The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.
",216,3
"Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [""The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.""](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.
Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.
Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?
---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) 
---Alibaba 
---Amazon 
---Apple 
---Baidu 
---Facebook 
---Microsoft 
---OpenAI 
---Tesla 
For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)
",58,3
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. 
The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
",84,3
"What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).
Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.
Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers
Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.
Related questions:
[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)
[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)
What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",82,3
"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)
Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)
On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned.
How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?
Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.
",192,3
"Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.
Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?
For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:
1a) Is widely reported in the media as ""Medicare for All""
or
1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare
2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.
3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.
3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.
3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively
If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.
For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.
This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).
This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.
",131,3
"When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/","Metaculus","[]","With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving ""herd immunity"" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)
It is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.
In this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). 
When (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
This will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)
If data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. 
",60,3
"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.
Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.
Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?
This question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:
--- 
the 2020 election was ""rigged""
--- 
the 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified ""unfair"")
--- 
Donald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president
--- 
Joe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president 
--- 
Donald Trump won in 2020
--- 
Joe Biden lost in 2020
This question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.
This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.
November is defined according to UTC 
",181,3
"What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. 
In 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. 
As solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. 
Predictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.
What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).
",38,3
"Will AI progress surprise us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?
Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
<li> A party gaining decisive strategic advantage </li><li> A single important ‘deployment’ event </li><li> Other very sudden and surprising events 
A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \( \frac{p}{1-p} \) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. 
So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? 
Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. 
(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)</li> 
",500,3
"When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/","Metaculus","[]","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. 
Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.
When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?
This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.
",74,3
"How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).
How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:
""Multimodal Machine Learning”, ""multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning"", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=2019&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---45 for the calendar year 2017 
---71 for the calendar year 2018 
---91 for the calendar year 2019 
---181 for the calendar year 2020 
",53,3
"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.
Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.
The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?
---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. 
---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. 
---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. 
",97,3
"When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[]","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. 
According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):
PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.
While [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.
Some popular websites using PHP:
---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) 
---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) 
---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) 
---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) 
---[360.cn](http://360.cn) 
---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) 
---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) 
---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) 
Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.
[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:
---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) 
---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) 
---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) 
---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) 
This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.
General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.
",96,3
"Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The term of the current Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will come to an end on 30 June 2021. Nominations are open for candidates to become the next Secretary-General, with nominations having closed on the 1st of November. The decision is expected by 1 March 2021 at the latest. 
Mathias Cormann announced he was stepping down as Finance Minister of Australia in order to run for the position of Secretary-General. [Cormann faces nine competitors.](https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-announces-candidates-for-next-secretary-general.htm) In his favour is [the US and EU being apparently reluctant to support the other's candidate](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s) but working against him is [the Australian Government's poor record on climate change](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/24/mathias-cormann-wants-to-be-a-chameleon-on-climate-change-when-weve-got-a-bin-fire-instead-of-a-plan).
Bipartisan support within Australia is likely needed for Cormann to have a chance. The Coalition torpedoed former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's bid to become UN Secretary-General, but the Labor Party [has said they will support Cormann's bid](https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/morrison-to-nominate-cormann-for-oecd-20201008-p5633s).
[Australia has provided Cormann with flights on an Air Force plane to help his bid.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-25/pm-defends-raaf-jet-for-cormann/12917878)
Will Mathias Cormann become the next Secretary-General of the OECD?
Question resolves positive on an official statement by the OECD that Mathias Cormann is appointed the next Secretary-General.
If the term of the current Secretary-General José Ángel Gurría Treviño is shortened or extended for any reason, this will resolve positive if Mathias Cormann is the next elected Secretary-General of the OECD. 
If for some reason Gurría does not complete his term, selection of an acting Secretary-General will not result in this question resolving negative. 
",105,3
"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). 
With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). 
In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)
How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?
This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.
Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&amp;text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).
",106,3
"Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.
This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? 
For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.
",237,3
"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","[]","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.
Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.
This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.
",122,3
"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/","Metaculus","[]","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&amp;gl=US&amp;ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.
[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).
When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?
This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).
If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.
If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as &gt;December 28, 2021.
",186,3
"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. 
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",133,3
"When will One Piece end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/","Metaculus","[]","It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).
So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?
This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).
This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.
",36,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).
",22,3
"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.
For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.
A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.
While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).
Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
",47,3
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 
---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 
---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 
",63,3
"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/","Metaculus","[]","Markets and Markets reports that:
“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”
These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. 
The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.
The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.
What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?
Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. 
Data:
Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%
",46,3
"Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.
Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?
A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.
",45,3
"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?
The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.
",216,3
"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.
What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?
---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). 
---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. 
Related questions: 
---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) 
---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) 
---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* 
",104,3
"What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.
What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?
This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. 
",79,3
"Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):
Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.
So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. 
",115,3
"When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/","Metaculus","[]","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:
The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.
While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.
When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?
This question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:
1-- 
There is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.
Any future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.
2-- 
The constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.
The resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as &gt;.
For the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.
The first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. 
",24,3
"Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).
A recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&amp;cid=F3C3887684911EE4&amp;id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&amp;parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&amp;o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.
Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).
This question asks:
Before 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?
This question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.
In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.
If an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.
This resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. 
",37,3
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.
When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?
This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.
",206,3
"How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).
How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:
""Multimodal Machine Learning”, ""multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning"", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=2019&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---45 for the calendar year 2017 
---71 for the calendar year 2018 
---91 for the calendar year 2019 
",196,3
"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. 
In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:
1-- 
White wins
2-- 
Black wins
3-- 
Forced draw
If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? 
For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if 
--- 
it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides
--- 
it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw
Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.
For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question
This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.
",168,3
"When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/","Metaculus","[]","[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)
Data of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).
When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?
Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.
The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.
Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.
",20,3
"Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.
A brief overview on her:
Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. 
With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.
She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. 
Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.
Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?
",356,3
"Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. 
The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.
Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. 
Will Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?
This resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). 
If MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.
It resolves positively otherwise.
If a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).
",112,3
"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. 
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",77,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",53,3
"By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). 
Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?
This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. 
By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.
Methodology
The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: 
When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. 
If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.
In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.
The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. 
",65,3
"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:
In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.
But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.
[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).
Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?
If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.
If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.
Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.
",62,3
"How large will Monaco be in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)
With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.
To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)
How large will Monaco be in 2035?
This question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.
If Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.
",53,3
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:
""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---80 for the calendar year 2017 
---127 for the calendar year 2018 
---275 for the calendar year 2019 
---420 in the calendar year 2020 
",59,3
"Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.
Stats to consider:
Distance
---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. 
---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). 
One-way communication lag
---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes 
---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds 
Gravity
---Mars: 0.38 g 
---The Moon: 0.17 g 
Rotation period
---Mars: 25 hours 
---The Moon: 1 month 
Atmosphere
---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. 
---The Moon: negligible if any. 
Solar energy
---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. 
---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. 
This question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. 
Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.
'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.
In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.
Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.
",240,3
"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?
This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
",60,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.
A good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.
For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",204,3
"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.
2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). 
Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). 
The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. 
The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.
Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). 
(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )
Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?
The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.
For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.
The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.
",39,3
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/","Metaculus","[]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. 
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",47,3
"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.
What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?
This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as &lt;2.
",104,3
"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.
That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) 
All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): 
This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.
More exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.
Some extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).
And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):
When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.
Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)
",232,3
"Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)
roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.
In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.
Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.
",63,3
"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.
At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?
This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",71,3
"Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. 
In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)
Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.
Background reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:
1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) 
2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) 
3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). 
4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal &amp; Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. 
5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) 
6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) 
Note: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.
Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?
For this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. 
This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. 
Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. 
The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)
Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. 
",72,3
"Kessler syndrome by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.
We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.
It is asked:
By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? 
",433,3
"When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.
When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?
This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).
",99,3
"How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&amp;text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. 
With resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. 
Going forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.
How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. 
In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.
",32,3
"Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.
Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.
Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?
This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.
""Senator"" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.
The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. 
",102,3
"What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/","Metaculus","[]","Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”
In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.
What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?
This question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.
Countries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table
Inclusion Criteria:
Countries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.
Success Criteria:
Countries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:
---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. 
---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. 
Either of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.
Carbon Neutrality Definition:
This question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.
If a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.
If a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. 
",25,3
"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.
Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).
Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
--- 
If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.
--- 
If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.
",38,3
"When will Russia become a democracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/","Metaculus","[]","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.
When will Russia become a democracy?
This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.
The resolution date is the date the report is published.
The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.
If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. 
",17,3
"When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/","Metaculus","[]","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. 
While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes
The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social &amp; diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.
A great power is said to be ""at war"" with another great power, if any of the following are true:
--- 
One nation has formally declared war on another.
--- 
One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.
--- 
High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war.""
For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).
The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?
",115,3
"Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.
Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.
The code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.
This question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of ""Transformer derived"":
Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a ""transformer"" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"". 
",67,3
"Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.
In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.
[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
The planet, however, remains to be found.
If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?
For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.
",91,3
"When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/","Metaculus","[]","The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. 
Indefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.
President Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. 
In January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.
In February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:
The Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.
When asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, ""That's certainly our goal and our intention.""
When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?
This question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.
Closures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.
",22,3
"Increased off-world population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. 
Up-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)
For the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. 
The highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. 
But the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.
This uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. 
Because of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?
Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? 
If clarification is needed of what counts as ""human"", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). ""Off of planet Earth"" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.
",487,3
"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2022-01-14?
This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.
As of writing, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
",118,3
"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. 
The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. 
[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&amp;src=typeahead_click):
For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.
Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?
Question resolves ""Yes"" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? 
The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. 
Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.
Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.
",153,3
"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The ""global"" value is the relevant one here.)
Will this goal be realized? 
The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.
",258,3
"How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. 
Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. 
While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.
How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
",21,3
"How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/","Metaculus","[]","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):
Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.
According to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.
Question: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?
Resolution details:
---Resolution is by credible media report. 
---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. 
---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. 
",190,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",123,3
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/","Metaculus","[]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. 
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",75,3
"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).
As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.
Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. 
Data sources and more information:
---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) 
---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) 
---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) 
What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?
This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
",106,3
"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.
Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are &gt;= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).
Related Questions 
---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) 
---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) 
If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.
",219,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.
Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). 
[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. 
For example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. 
One way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. 
However, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.
[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...
If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?
The question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",289,3
"What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.
B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.
In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.
What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?
This question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&amp;country=United%20States&amp;division=California&amp;pango=B.1.1.7&amp;selected=United%20States&amp;selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&amp;country=United%20States&amp;division=California&amp;pango=B.1.1.7&amp;selected=United%20States&amp;selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.
",66,3
"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). 
Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&amp;page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.
By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. 
By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.
Methodology
The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: 
When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. 
If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.
In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.
The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. 
",66,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection  Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
The index is constructed as follows:
--- 
We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
--- 
The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:
Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).
Historical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.
What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. 
",66,3
"Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.
Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
",37,3
"What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.
What will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?
",35,3
"Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),
The S&amp;P 500, or simply the S&amp;P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.
Historical total returns for the S&amp;P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).
What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&amp;P 500 in the 2020s?
This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.
",75,3
"Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.
But life could take many forms:
---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). 
---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). 
---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). 
---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). 
These examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.
Question: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?
Life-form details:
1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. 
2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. 
3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. 
Resolution details:
---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. 
---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. 
---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. 
---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. 
---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. 
* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.
Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). 
",143,3
"Will online poker die by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)
Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.
In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)
In 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)
“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.
According to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had &gt;1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.
Will online poker die by 2030?
This question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. 
This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.
If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. 
The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. 
",94,3
"When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","[]","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
Related questions:
---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) 
---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) 
[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
",150,3
"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/","Metaculus","[]","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.
In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. 
The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.
In the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.
This question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?
For the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.
A 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. 
Additionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.
Amusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.
This question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.
",65,3
"When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/","Metaculus","[]","Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.
The test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.
They found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.
The question asks:
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?
We will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.
The question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.
Below are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)
College Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):
Which of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?
a) PbH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SiH4 &lt; CH4
b) PbH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; CH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SiH4
c) CH4 &lt; SiH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; PbH4
d) CH4 &lt; PbH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; SiH4 
Moral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):
For which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.
a) Wrong, Wrong
b) Wrong, Not wrong
c) Not wrong, Wrong
d) Not wrong, Not wrong
Similar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)
College chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)
The authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at &gt; Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.
The model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.
Fine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.
",67,3
"Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):
The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.
US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in ""organized terror attacks"" designed to tear down government institutions.
“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.
Unsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:
While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.
In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.
However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.
The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.
So it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: 
Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?
---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. 
---It must happen before 2022. 
---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). 
---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. 
",346,3
"When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/","Metaculus","[]","This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).
Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).
To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.
When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.
",127,3
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",43,3
"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/","Metaculus","[]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.
Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive.
AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.
But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.
It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:
When will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?
We will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.
--- 
Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, ""the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.""
--- 
Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).
--- 
High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&amp;A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).
--- 
Be able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the ""intermediate"" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.
By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&amp;A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)
Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.
(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)
",150,3
"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[]","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&amp;biw=1440&amp;bih=741&amp;tbm=nws&amp;ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&amp;q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&amp;oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&amp;search=minimum%20wage&amp;categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&amp;src=typed_query).
The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.
What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?
On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)
If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.
The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.
If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.
If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.
",121,3
"What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.
This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.
Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). 
What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.
In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.
The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.
In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.
",137,3
"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)
[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)
Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?
In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. 
A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. 
A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.
",1063,3
"Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","previous Metaculus questions:
--- 
[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)
--- 
[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)
The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .
The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?
This question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.
",53,3
"How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

Metaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 million dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. 
How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).
",18,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). 
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",103,3
"Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.
For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)
The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... ""
Peter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,
Our custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?
Many contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?
This question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.
For clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has ""the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity."" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.
",111,3
"If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/","Metaculus","[]","Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.
In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.
However, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).
The only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&amp;C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.
If DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as ""variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals"" are ""animal drugs"" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).
This resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.
If this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as ""&gt; Oct 5, 2031"".
",85,3
"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","SpaceX has released plans for an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.
In typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.
In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.
This question sets a scaled-back goal: 
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?
This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.
",1104,3
"Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, ""soft power"" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). 
Could this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as ""kinetic conflict"") in the near future? 
Some Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): 
When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.
The tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.
My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.
On the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we ""may"" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be ""too surprised"" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is ""a possibility we can't rule out"". 
Thus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?
This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in ""kinetic conflict"", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a ""cold war"").
",145,3
"Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html):
Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border.
The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others ""orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors"".
The indictment claims the ""scheme"" was related to an online crowdfunding campaign that claims to have raised more than $25m to build a wall along the southern border of the United States.
[Allsides.com has the various versions of the story across media outlets](https://www.allsides.com/story/former-trump-advisor-steve-bannon-arrested-fraud-charges).
The official charges are as follows:
1-- 
BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, and others, orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors, including donors in the Southern District of New York, in connection with an online crowdfunding campaign ultimately known as “We Build The Wall” that raised more than $25,000,000 to build a wall along the southern border of the United States. To induce donors to donate to the campaign, KOLFAGE and BANNON - each of whom, as detailed herein, exerted significant control over We Build the Wall - repeatedly and falsely assured the public that KOLFAGE would “not take a penny in salary or compensation” and that “100% of the funds raised .. will be used in the execution of our mission and purpose” because, as BANNON publicly stated, “we’re a volunteer organization.”
2-- 
Those representations were false. In truth, BRIAN KOLFAGE, STEPHEN BANNON, ANDREW BADOLATO, and TIMOTHY SHEA, the defendants, collectively received hundreds of thousands of dollars in donor funds from We Build the Wall, which they each used in a manner inconsistent with the organization’s public representations. In particular, KOLFAGE covertly took more than $350,000 in funds that had been donated to We Build the Wall for his personal use, while BANNON, through a non-profit organization under his control (“Non-Profit-1”), received over $1,000,000 from We Build the Wall, which BANNON used to, among other things, secretly pay KOLFAGE and to cover hundreds of thousands of dollars in BANNON’s personal expenses. To conceal the payments to KOLFAGE from We Build the Wall, KOLFAGE, BANNON, BADOLATO, and SHEA devised a scheme to route those payments from We Build the Wall to KOLFAGE indirectly through Non-Profit-1 and a shell company under SHEA’s control, among other avenues. They did so by using fake invoices and sham “vendor” arrangements, among other ways, to ensure, as KOLFAGE noted in a text message to BADOLATO, that his pay arrangement remained “confidential” and kept on a “need to know” basis.
Will Bannon be found guilty of at least one fraud charge?
---The resolution concerns the first verdict. We may make another question about an eventual appealed case (seems likely). 
---Only the ones in this case are relevant. If Bannon is indicted with unrelated fraud charges, these are irrelevant for this question. 
",329,3
"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.
The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:
The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.
Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.
Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”
If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.
Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.
---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. 
---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. 
---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. 
---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. 
",254,3
"When will there be at least one billion Americans?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/","Metaculus","[]","[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. 
One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.
As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)
You can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)
When will there be at least one billion Americans?
This question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.
If the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as ""After January 1, 2121.""
If no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.
This question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.
[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. 
",71,3
"What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/","Metaculus","[]","The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.
One goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).
Data sources and more information:
---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) 
---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website 
---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) 
---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) 
---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) 
---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) 
---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) 
---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) 
---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) 
What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
The percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.
To resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.
9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.
",111,3
"When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/","Metaculus","[]","Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).
In the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).
Fortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).
However, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is ""not fit for purpose"" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.
When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.
Examples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). 
The specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.
If the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as ""&gt; Oct 2, 2035"".
",83,3
"Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?
Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?
This question resolves ""Yes"" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves ""No"" otherwise.
If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.
The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.
If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". 
If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. 
",684,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6676/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).
",76,3
"The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/","Metaculus","[]","In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.
For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?
Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:
--- 
In June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.
--- 
In November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.
Development over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)
What sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?
Resolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.
",131,3
"When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/","Metaculus","[]","The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.
The Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.
When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?
This question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:
1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); 
2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; 
3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; 
4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or 
5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. 
The question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).
",21,3
"When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/","Metaculus","[]","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
In April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called ""Waymo One""; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.
By November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.
The question asks:
When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:
1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. 
2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. 
3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. 
Use of geo-fencing is allowed.
Similar questions:
---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) 
---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) 
---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. 
---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). 
---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. 
---The client must pay for the trip. 
---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. 
---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. 
",82,3
"What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/","Metaculus","[]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.
Progress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.
What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?
Resolution
The question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:
---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 
---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 
---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 
---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 
---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 
---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 
The [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",114,3
"How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is
a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.
Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.
The US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.
This question asks:
How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?
Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.
Growth will be calculated as where is ""Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year "" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).
Both figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.
",50,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
Index
The index is constructed as follows:
---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index 
---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.
For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. 
",109,3
"Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.
[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)
The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.
This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.
As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.
Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?
This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.
Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.
",87,3
"When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/","Metaculus","[]","Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). 
[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).
Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.
At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin ""threads"" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.
In the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).
This question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?
You can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).
The implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.
This question resolves &gt;2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.
Changelog:
2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).
",116,3
"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.
Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?
This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.
This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.
",130,3
"How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Donald Trump is included, which spot will he earn overall?
Please note that there have already been two prominent historical rankings of presidents which have included Donald Trump. [One](https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Presidents-2018-Rank-by-Category.pdf) gave him a rank of 42/44 and [another](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/19/opinion/how-does-trump-stack-up-against-the-best-and-worst-presidents.html) gave him a rank of 44/44 (though only 40/44 when you ask only Republican scholars).
How will Donald Trump rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?
This question resolves as the position ranking of Donald Trump in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Donald Trump. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Trump. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.
",304,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).
",46,3
"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.
Recently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.
It is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? 
This questions resolves positive if:
EITHER
<li>There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.</li> 
OR
<li>There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.</li> 
OR
<li>Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.</li> 
The resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.
Here is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:
<li>46 people have reached the age of 115.</li> <li>19 people have reached the age of 116.</li> <li>9 people have reached the age of 117.</li> <li>2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.</li> <li>Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.</li> 
Also note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.
",310,3
"How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.
The Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.
The Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]
How much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?
Resolution
This question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with &gt;30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).
Note that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.
",147,3
"What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their ""Color of the Year"", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022.
What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?
The question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/).
The announcement of the color typically occurs around early December, but the date is not certain, so the question will retroactively close 24 hours before the announcement is made.
This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur:
---Pantone announces multiple Colors of the Year (as it did for 2016 and 2021). 
---Pantone fails (for any reason) to announce a Color of the Year for 2022 before 2021-12-31. 
---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. 
---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). 
",20,3
"When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/","Metaculus","[]","With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. 
As such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?
When will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?
This question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.
",88,3
"When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).
A month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).
Lyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:
The shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.
If the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:
Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. 
Since 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. 

Question
========

In order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?

Resolution
==========

Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. 

Related Questions
=================

---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). 
",31,3
"For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.
It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. 
You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)
Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.
With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.
Similar Questions:
[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)
[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)
For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
",60,3
"When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/","Metaculus","[]","A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):
An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.
A falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.
Initial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.
When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?
This prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)
The resolution uses the ""observation date,"" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. 
",25,3
"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).
Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.
Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.
Other Related Questions:
[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)
[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)
What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.
",49,3
"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.
Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?
For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
",70,3
"When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/","Metaculus","[]","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): 
Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.
Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.
As of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is ""Shape of You"" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).
When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?
This question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.
If it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.
If it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.
",41,3
"By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.
[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these ""trigger"" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.
Kelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:
The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.
[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.
I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.
By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?
This question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.
",21,3
"Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)
Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.
[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.
[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:
--- 
Peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;
--- 
Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and
--- 
Increasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.
Currently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.
Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.
",285,3
"When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/","Metaculus","[]","[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. 
The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.
An early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.
This question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? 
The date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'
By 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.
This means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.
Resolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.
",74,3
"Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the ""Conservatives"" or ""Tories"". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.
Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).
If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.
If the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.
In case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:
1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, 
2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and 
3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. 
If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.
",43,3
"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/","Metaculus","[]","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),
a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.
When will be the next S&amp;P 500 correction?
The S&amp;P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.
",69,3
"What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. 
In 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. 
Barring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.
What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
",31,3
"How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/","Metaculus","[]","Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.

Question

How many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?

Definitions

Endurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.
Extra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.
We'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:
--- 
was born in the 1990s,
--- 
doesn't smoke,
--- 
eats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,
--- 
has body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,
--- 
drinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and
--- 
lives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).

Resolution

The question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).
--- 
If the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.
--- 
If the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.
Otherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.
",118,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",113,3
"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. 
The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. 
23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.
Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?
This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.
",674,3
"What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
What will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?
The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.
Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) 
---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) 
",428,3
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.
How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the ""[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)"" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 
---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 
---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 
---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 
",51,3
"Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.
SpaceX has been working on its own ""Mars"" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.
Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
The resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:
1) A mission substantially (&gt;30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.
2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as ""Starship"" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.
The question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).
The question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).
If neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.
Note that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.
Similarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.
It is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.
",47,3
"When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.
This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:
Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]
As of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). 
When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?
Resolution
Companies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue ""Broiler"", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.
This question resolves as &gt; Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.
",89,3
"When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/","Metaculus","[]","With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
This question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. 
Positive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.
Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.
Positive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.
In case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as ""&gt;2090-10-25"". 
",57,3
"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. 
Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. 
There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.
Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?
This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.
Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. 
",169,3
"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/","Metaculus","[]","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.
This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
This question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.
",160,3
"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
1--Number of Gold Medals 
2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 
3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals 
The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?
Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.
",65,3
"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.
The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.
A charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:
1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a ""charity"" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a ""charity"".) 
2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) 
Edge cases:
---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. 
---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. 
---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. 
---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. 
",35,3
"Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.
As of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. 
Throughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. 
The Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. 
The Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).
Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?
For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.
If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. 
",60,3
"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT?
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding &gt;75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2023.
Related question
---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) 
",133,3
"What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6712/new-us-covid-hospital-admissions-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 1 March 2021 there are 46,738 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations.
A plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/numberOfNewHospitlizations.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). 
Data sources and more information:
---[Department of Health and Human Service’s report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) 
---[COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) 
---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website 
---The CDC’s [Hospitalization forecasts website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/hospitalizations-forecasts.html) 
---[The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website](https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) 
---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) 
---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) 
---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) 
---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) 
What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).
",48,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection  Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
The index is constructed as follows:
--- 
We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
--- 
The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:
Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).
Historical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. 
",95,3
"When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/","Metaculus","[]","Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.
In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.
Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:
1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) 
2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) 
3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) 
4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. 
Resolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as &gt;01/01/2030.
Specifics and Caveats:
1-- 
Multi-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. 
2-- 
For text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.
3-- 
For image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.
4-- 
If [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.
",98,3
"Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.
This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
This question can be resolved at any time.
",282,3
"Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)
The Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.
No state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.
Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.
This question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? 
Note that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)
Resolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.
",219,3
"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.
When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?
This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve
A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):
---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative 
---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) 
---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. 
---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. 
",86,3
"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[]","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.
[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).
But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.
[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)
When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.
So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.
If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. 
",30,3
"What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/","Metaculus","[]","In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.
Fahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.
Of the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,
Using large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.
Fahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).
Fahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.
This question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?
If for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.
",33,3
"When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/","Metaculus","[]","In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).
Since beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.
However, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is ""not fit for purpose"" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.
When will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.
Resolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.
If this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as ""&gt; Oct 5, 2032"".
",72,3
"Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.
The human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.
Currently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.
But by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. 
Per Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:
By 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.
The demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). 
The International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).
Whether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))
",274,3
"When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).
Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).
When, if ever, will people &lt;18 years old vote in national elections in the US?
This question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.
Only [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.
",62,3
"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/","Metaculus","[]","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.
When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?
This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:
---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative 
---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) 
---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. 
---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. 
This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.
",54,3
"Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.
[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
",36,3
"When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/","Metaculus","[]","The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.
The user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.
This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?
Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
",151,3
"Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zł464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zł462.00 four months earlier.
[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf), contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zł238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack).
Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?
The question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zł462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/GPW-CDR/).
",61,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.
A good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.
For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",291,3
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).
How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""few shot"", ""1-shot"", ""one-shot"", ""five-shot"", ""10-shot"", ""ten-shot"", ""zero shot"", ""0 shot"", ""low-shot learning"", ""small sample learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:
---203 for the calendar year 2017 
---350 for the calendar year 2018 
---700 for the calendar year 2019 
",185,3
"What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).
What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?
This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).
",79,3
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---779 for the calendar year 2017 
---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 
---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 
",54,3
"If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).
If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:
---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. 
---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] 
---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. 
---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. 
If the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.
[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, ""one month prior"" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.
",39,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",59,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).
",41,3
"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as ""a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,"" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured ""if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity""; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.
How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?
--- 
Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.
--- 
In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.
--- 
Resolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. 
",97,3
"Will Metaculus exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.
Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?
A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.
Due to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.
",534,3
"Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context
=======

A von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called ""Universal Assemblers."" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.
In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. 
If a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. 
It has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an ""average cruising speed"" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. 

Question
========

Will a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?

Resolution
==========

A spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. 
For positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.
",79,3
"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.
Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.
According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).
What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?
Resolution
This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.
",131,3
"What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.
",176,3
"Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.
Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.
If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.
",227,3
"How many of the ""priority paths"" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).
Much of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as ""one of [the] highest-impact options"" for those who have ""the potential to excel"" in those paths.
In 2020, the priority paths are:
--- 
AI policy and strategy research and implementation
--- 
AI safety technical researcher
--- 
Grantmaker focused on top areas
--- 
Work in effective altruism organisations
--- 
Global priorities researcher
--- 
Biorisk strategy and policy
--- 
China specialists
--- 
Earning to give in quant trading
--- 
Decision-making psychology research and policy roles
This question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as ""priority paths"" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are ""essentially the same as"" one of the priority paths listed above. ""Essentially the same"" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.
If 80,000hours no longer lists ""priority paths"", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.
",26,3
"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).
A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),
Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.
You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.
Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).
See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).
Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.
1-- 
The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.
2-- 
The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.
The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.
If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. 
",25,3
"When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/","Metaculus","[]","Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).
When will China become a democracy?
This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.
This question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.
",35,3
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). 
What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?
This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list. 
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",321,3
"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.""
[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&amp;list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.
Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?
The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.
Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. 
",31,3
"When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.
Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.
[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated ""as early as April"":
When asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded ""We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think"".
[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by ""March or early April"":
It’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... ""for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”
[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated ""heading into fall 2021""
""And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.""
When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?
This question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.
Similar language to widely available, such as ""generally available"" or ""available for all who want it"", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.
To be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. 
",430,3
"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&amp;P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.
Will the S&amp;P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?
This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&amp;P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
",286,3
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.
When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?
This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.
",101,3
"How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/","Metaculus","[]","According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.
How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?
Resolution
This question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.
The estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). 
For the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):
“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.
A plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. 
For singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. 
For larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a ""plant-based meat"" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words ""plant-based meat"" or any variations where ""meat"" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. ""plant-based beef"" or ""plant-based burger""), and/or variations where ""plant"" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. ""pea-based meat"" or ""soy-protein based chicken"").
",132,3
"What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

In 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. 
The onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. 
However, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:
“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”
What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?
Predictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).
",22,3
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---80 for the calendar year 2017 
---127 for the calendar year 2018 
---275 for the calendar year 2019 
",117,3
"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.
Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.
However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.
Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)
Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?
This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.
This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.
",38,3
"How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 
---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 
",179,3
"How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6388/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count.
How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).
",65,3
"Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):
I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.
If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.
This question resolves positively if any of the terms ""aging"", ""ageing"", ""anti-aging"", ""anti-ageing"", ""longevity"", ""lifespan"", ""rejuvenation"", or ""life extension"" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:
1-- 
The English Wikipedia's ""In the news"" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).
or
2-- 
[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.
or
3-- 
The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.
It also resolves positively if:
4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. 
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.
In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.
* ""longevity research"" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.
",171,3
"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),
A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.
The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),
widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.
This question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.
",148,3
"When will the first baby be born away from Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/","Metaculus","[]","This question simply asks:
When will the first baby be born away from Earth?
The question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at &gt;2120.
Similar questions:
---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) 
---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) 
",62,3
"Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.
Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?
This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.
",79,3
"Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/","Metaculus","[]","The [""nones"" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.
Per a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):
1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).
At the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that 
[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.
Importantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the ""general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,"" but it is ""not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern."" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.
Considering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: 
What will the portion of the global population identifying as ""religiously unaffiliated"" be in 2050? 
The resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for ""religiously unaffiliated"" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).
",180,3
"How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/","Metaculus","[]","“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”
Used to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.
By 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.
“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” 
Predictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. 
How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?

Data
====

Historical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&amp;view=map&amp;year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).
",20,3
"When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/","Metaculus","[]","Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.
Adversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [""Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon""](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.
Notably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.
Recently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question ""Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?"". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.
The question asks:

When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

The question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.
",158,3
"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). 
Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.
It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.
",420,3
"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.
It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).
It was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).
Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?
The question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).
This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.
This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.
Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.
Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. 
",68,3
"Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/","Metaculus","[]","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.
Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general.
The bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.
We ask:
In what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?
Resolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.
",158,3
"Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. 
Currently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).
This question asks:
Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?
Resolution will be by credible media reports. Only deliberate nuclear attacks by nations count for the purpose of resolution. Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.
",93,3
"What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/","Metaculus","[]","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:
the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.
This question asks:
What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?
This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:
The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.
Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom 
",47,3
"Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).
Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.
Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.
If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. 
",380,3
"When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/","Metaculus","[]","The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.
This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).
",90,3
"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.
Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. 
EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.
How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?
Data will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.
",132,3
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?
For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)
The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.
Resolution
This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:
--- 
the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change
--- 
positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation
If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.
",132,3
"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).
[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.
Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy &gt;90%.
[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.
On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.
70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020
However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.
When will the United States reach herd immunity (&gt;230M) for COVID-19?
This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that &gt;230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.
While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2022. 
",674,3
"What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/","Metaculus","[]","[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.
But will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).
What will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? 
We will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. 
Resolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.
Inspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.
",103,3
"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.
The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.
",123,3
"Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.
Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?
This will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. 
For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. 
“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.
",40,3
"When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/","Metaculus","[]","Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.
As of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&amp;pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%
When will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?
This resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&amp;pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.
Clarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&amp;pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).
",139,3
"When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/","Metaculus","[]","Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.
Earlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.
This [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: 
It is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. 
For more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.
When, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?
",60,3
"Will ""best practice"" in treating Coronavirus involve administering  Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Will ""best practice"" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?
This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.
The BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.
""1st line"", and ""Plus"" count as a recommendation. ""Consider"" does not.
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. 
",168,3
"What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.
Yet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called ""third-party candidates"" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.
What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?
This resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.
",50,3
"Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),
Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was ""the most secure in American history."" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was ""no evidence of widespread fraud"" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.
Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?
For the purpose of this question, the ""losing party"" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,
--- 
The losing candidate states that they consider the election result ""fraudulent"" or ""rigged"", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of ""fraudulent"" or ""rigged"", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists ""fraud"", ""fraudulent"", or ""rigged"" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.
--- 
The losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.
--- 
Fewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.
--- 
A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was ""probably"" or ""definitely"" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have ""projected"" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of ""projected"" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. 
",213,3
"Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. 
One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. 
ACE explicitly includes ""the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)"" as part of ""Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture"", one of their seven [evaluation criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to [Encompass](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ePDKZMpoGdx7J3PBh/announcing-our-summer-2020-ace-movement-grants#Encompass___35_000_). 
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?
Whether an event is a ""scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination"" will be resolved per the [""I know it when I see it""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",85,3
"What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","[]","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).
The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). 
[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.
The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).
[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. 
The IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:
---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) 
---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) 
---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) 
---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) 
---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) 
---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) 
---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) 
What will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?
Resolution
This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.
In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.
",76,3
"Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was launched on June 10, 2020. Supporters of the recall have until March 17, 2021, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed to require a recall election. In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot.
The Constitution of California allows for recall elections to be held, if petitioners can collect signatures equal to 12% of the number of votes cast in the last election. In 2018, 12,464,235 total votes were cast in the governor's race.
The current recall petition has currently collected [495 thousand](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/newsom-heatlie-sixth.pdf) signatures out of the 1.5 million needed.
Will California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before Mar 31, 2022 ?
This question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall. This question is for any recall effort which is sucessfully submitted by March 31, 2022, even if the current petition does not reach the required signatures.
The counting of the signatures and verification may take longer than March 31, 2022 to be confirmed. 
",880,3
"Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.
Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.
",123,3
"What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).
The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).
What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). 
",101,3
"How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. 
Boulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. 
[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. 
However, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. 
Currently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Colorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.
How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?

Resolution Criteria:
====================

Resolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.
Unfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. 

Data:
=====

Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. 
Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.
",66,3
"What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/","Metaculus","[]","Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are ""probable healthcare-associated infections"".
In the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?
--- 
Estimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.
--- 
Resolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).
--- 
If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.
--- 
Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. 
",91,3
"What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).
Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.
What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?
",78,3
"Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's ""Dark Was the Night"" on Voyager I's Golden Record?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is ""a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.""
One of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called ""[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)"" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.
Voyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.
Will some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)
Note: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.
",177,3
"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.
Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.
One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.
This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.
Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.
",56,3
"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.
The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.
This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?
If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.
Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).
",14,3
"When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.
In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.

When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?

---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. 
---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. 
---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. 
---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. 
---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. 
",96,3
"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)
According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.
Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?
The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. 
",418,3
"Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).
A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).
As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.
Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.
There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
",203,3
"When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).
On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).
This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):
import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(""https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv"") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] &lt;= 0.1 * maximum) &amp; (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index &lt;= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) 
",294,3
"What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[]","According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.
What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?
The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.
",181,3
"What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.
Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. 
January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. 
The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.
Related questions:
[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)
[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)
What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April
",52,3
"When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/","Metaculus","[]","When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the ""New world"" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.
It may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.
When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
This question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.
If it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.
If the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.
Because of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.
",78,3
"Is the Collatz Conjecture true?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.
Again, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) 
where n is a positive integer.
The Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).
For any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:
1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.
2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.
3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.
Per [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, ""this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.""
This question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. 
If the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.
Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) 
---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) 
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) 
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) 
",187,3
"Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):
The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.
",347,3
"When will the UK hold its next general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[]","--- 
The UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.
--- 
There have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. 
--- 
In 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.
--- 
In 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.
--- 
The government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.
--- 
There has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. 
--- 
Historically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. 
--- 
Governments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.
When will the UK hold its next general election?
This question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.
",51,3
"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.
Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),
The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. 
For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. 
Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.
I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. 
This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
",246,3
"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.
Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.
",113,3
"When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/","Metaculus","[]","The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.
Ever since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:
some efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.
The article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:
Obtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.
A new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”
Another attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.
When will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?
",183,3
"Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )
Despite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.
As increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)
Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?
Since the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).
",188,3
"A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) 
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]
Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. 
With the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&amp;P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). 
Hence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?
Will the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&amp;P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?
This resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&amp;P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).
",277,3
"When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/","Metaculus","[]","The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.
In terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.
Joe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).
When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?
The resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.
If the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.
The question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. 
",111,3
"What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.
She has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. 
The oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. 
Here are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.
As of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?
To avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.
I have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.
",188,3
"How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). 
In previous years, the total amounts granted were:
---2020: $14,210,367 
---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) 
---2018: $4,160,392 
---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) 
---2016: $7,749,985 
---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) 
How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.
---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. 
",57,3
"What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/","Metaculus","[]","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).
What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?
What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.
",42,3
"If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). 
---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). 
The University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.
Let's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:
---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. 
---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). 
---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). 
If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?
For the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.

Closing condition

This question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:
1-- 
The date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.
2-- 
The resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).
3-- 
The closing date stated on this question.
The reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.

Resolution details

The resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.
For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.
If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
If the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
",27,3
"Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).
Robert D Atkinson argued,
U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the ""low hanging fruit has been picked."" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the ""s-curve"" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)
Alberto Forchielli countered,
We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&amp;D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.
Will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?
If Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
",25,3
"Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. 
According to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).
Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?
This question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.
It will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).
",164,3
"Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. 
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.
Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?
This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).
",68,3
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?
This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. 
",58,3
"Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,
Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.
This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.
",85,3
"What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) ""the market value of all the final goods and services produced"". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.
One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).
Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?
Resolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.
",30,3
"Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.
Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.
The INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.
To date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.
As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. 
This question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?
",251,3
"Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The universe is thought to contain:
---only around 5% of ordinary matter 
---25% Dark Matter 
---70% Dark Energy 
In other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.
Presence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.
[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.
[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.
The question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.
If the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.
",204,3
"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.
This question will resolve positively if:
---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and 
---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. 
This question will resolve ambiguously if:
---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. 
---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. 
",570,3
"If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/","Metaculus","[]","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.
At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).
The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what longitude will it start in?
Longitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).
Many wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. 
Likewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a ""Third World War"" are not met by the resolve date:
--- 
Consensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)
--- 
Conflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.
This question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)
",92,3
"What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?
This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)"" and ""[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services""](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm) according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",226,3
"Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, ""The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages"".
Similarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.
There are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.
When predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.
It is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?
We define a world war as a war that either, 
---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR 
---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. 
The beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.
Should there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.
Given the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.
Still, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.
",370,3
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?
The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
",156,3
"Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) 
Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?
Resolution
For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
",228,3
"When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/","Metaculus","[]","On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.
When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.
If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “&gt; Dec 31, 2021.”
",220,3
"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.
Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.
",189,3
"Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).
But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:
The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.
Yikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.
Venus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.
But Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. 
So when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?
Per this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): 
A generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.
Russia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):
It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an ""aggressive"" time line.
Can we get there before the 2030s? 
Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.
",460,3
"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.
Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?
This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. 
If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.
5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the &gt;= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.
",118,3
"How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. 
In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?
This question resolves as the ""Number of jobs"" for the profession ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.
",65,3
"Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.
The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). 
Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:
---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). 
---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) 
---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the ""WSOP 2021 Main Event"" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). 
---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). 
This question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.
Note that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated ""Main Event"" is played live.
",120,3
"Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.
(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)
1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 
2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 
3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 
4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 
5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 
6--Johnson &amp; Johnson JNJ 345.95 
7--JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co JPM 345.44 
8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 
9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 
10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 
11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 
12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 
13-Visa Inc V 238.97 
14-Wells Fargo &amp; Co (New) WFC 234.51 
15-Procter &amp; Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 
16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 
17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 
18-AT&amp;T Inc T 223.22 
19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 
20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 
Note: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.
If any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)
This question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?
For a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).
Resolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.
",226,3
"What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/","Metaculus","[]","The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is
an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.
It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).
The index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&amp;campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.
What will that number be in the 2040 report?
This question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).
* ""Metaculus"" here means ""Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section"".
",73,3
"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.
The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.
Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top).
What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021
Related questions:
[Industrial Production Index November 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5020/industrial-production-index-in-november-2020/)
[Industrial Production Index December 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5021/industrial-production-index-december-2020/)

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
",152,3
"Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece
The area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.
The 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.
The Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.
Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?
This question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.
Earthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track
",40,3
"What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.
You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).
The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.
What will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?

Resolution Criteria
===================

This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.
",166,3
"How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.
In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).
How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?
Resolution
This resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.
",156,3
"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.
On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?
This question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
",138,3
"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6769/cumulative-two-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.
As of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. 
Data sources and more information:
---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) 
---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) 
---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) 
What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?
This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to ""fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new ""fully vaccinated"" figure reported by the CDC.
",68,3
"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.
Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?
Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.
",65,3
"When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).
The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).
Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people.
When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?
This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks.
By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.
To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet in a public outdoor place today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" 
",233,3
"Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, 
specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.
but of course
That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.
This would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:
""The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars."" 
This question is a bit experimental, one of a series of ""self-resolving"" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:
--- 
If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is &gt; 95% or &lt; 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.
--- 
Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
",175,3
"Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.
Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?
2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. 
FIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.
If any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.
",27,3
"Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).
The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)
Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
This prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.
",90,3
"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.
On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?
This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
",92,3
"When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.
However, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.
The United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):
Americans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.
When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
This question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt;2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.
",101,3
"What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).
According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).
What will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
Resolution
This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.
",108,3
"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.
The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.
Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top).
Related questions:
[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)
[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)
What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
",56,3
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).
How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""few shot"", ""1-shot"", ""one-shot"", ""five-shot"", ""10-shot"", ""ten-shot"", ""zero shot"", ""0 shot"", ""low-shot learning"", ""small sample learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:
---203 for the calendar year 2017 
---350 for the calendar year 2018 
---700 for the calendar year 2019 
",57,3
"Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:
---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. 
And:
---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. 
The CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)
The role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.
The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. 
",103,3
"When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Water has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: 
Private firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.
As an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.
Though it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.
A recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: 
Given the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.

Question
========

Therefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?

Resolution
==========

For the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.
",22,3
"How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/","Metaculus","[]","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. 
On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?
This will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.
If the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",41,3
"Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.
[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.
Note: I am using ""DNA data"", ""genomics data"", ""genetic data"" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.
Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?
This question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:
1-- 
Genetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products
2-- 
Is used to inflict harm on one or more individuals
3-- 
Without their consent
Recognizing that ""harm"" and ""consent"" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.
The following examples do not count as positive resolutions:
--- 
Speculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely
--- 
Genetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.
--- 
Genetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).
--- 
Individuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is ""baked in"" to consent). 
The following examples do count as positive resolutions: 
--- 
Evidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (""would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?""), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service
--- 
An outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. 
",37,3
"Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:
---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. 
vs.
---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. 
Social scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. 
This is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:
It seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.
— ​​​Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014
For some insight, you can watch the Nature video [""Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist""](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)
Question: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? 
A paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:
1-- 
It compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.
2-- 
It has the keywords ""macrosociology"" or ""macroeconomic"" or some obvious derivation of these such as ""macrosocial"" or ""macroeconomics"".
3-- 
It defines ""size"" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of ""length"" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of ""size"" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). 
4-- 
It defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.
5-- 
It is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).
The question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.
",94,3
"Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. 
Features of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.
The implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. 
So far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.
But there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.

Will a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?

For a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover &gt;50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.
(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)
",161,3
"Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is
a hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.
As of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.
[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is
a form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.
However,
dark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.
It has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the ""asteroid mass region"" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely ""reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects"" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).
Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?
This question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.
This question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.
This question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.
The scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).
The question posed to the experts will be ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.""
The sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories ""Astrophysics of Galaxies"", ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"", and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology"".
If the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. 
",28,3
"Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). 
Since then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))
There have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:
There are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)
Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?
If any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))
Senior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.
They need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index
---S&amp;P500 
---FTSE100 
---DAX30 
---CAC40 
---FTSE MIB 
---Nikkei 225 
Their imprisonment must start before 2026
",48,3
"When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/","Metaculus","[]","The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .
When will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?
This question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.
In case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.
",65,3
"Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)
This question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)
Resolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:
--- 
Three countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR 
--- 
Two countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. 
These conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.
As with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.
",170,3
"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
Other Related Questions:
[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)
[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)
What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",60,3
"When will the first cloned human be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/","Metaculus","[]","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.
The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:
[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.
They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...
(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."")
On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. 
When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.
",159,3
"Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.
Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?
It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?
Data for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.
",289,3
"Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered ""under serious threat"" by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:
The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.
Silverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that ""face supply limitations in the coming years."" Those considered by the ACS ""under serious threat"" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.
It sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: 
We mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. 
As a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following ""under serious threat"" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.
",191,3
"Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.
The paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).
Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024
An official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)
A pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.
The zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:
--- 
Number of floors
--- 
Plot use
",50,3
"Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.
This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.
",173,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.
According to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.
This could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.
These studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.
In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,
Given that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
The question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",152,3
"Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:
1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) 
2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.
Option 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. 
Note that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (""Pokemon auto""), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.
The question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.
",110,3
"When will commercial supersonic flight return?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/","Metaculus","[]","The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.
But skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? 
For instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)
Just 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). 
Wired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:
The Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail"" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.
Commercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.
But after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.
That may be changing. Quickly.
[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:
[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. 
Boom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.
What do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? 
Resolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.
ETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.
",282,3
"How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.
There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:
---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good 
---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making 
---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed 
---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts 
---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed 
The World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. 
How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:
""Climate engineering"" OR ""geoengineering"" OR ""Solar radiation management"" OR ""Stratospheric Particle Injection"" OR ""Stratospheric aerosol injection"" OR ""Marine cloud brightening"" OR ""Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement""
",84,3
"Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&amp;iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&amp;iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:
“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”
A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))
See: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.
Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?
Question will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (""we have made progress towards our commitment"" would resolve negatively, whereas ""globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls"" would resolve positively). 
If the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",53,3
"When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/","Metaculus","[]","Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.
On February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,
One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.
This question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (&gt;10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",345,3
"Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. 
One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. 
Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. 
It could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training ""coach"" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.
Do you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?
This question asks:
In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?
New content means: 
1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.
2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.
3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:
-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, 
all three of which occur pretty routinely.
New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a ""response"" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.
",77,3
"Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.
There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:
---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good 
---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making 
---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed 
---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts 
---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed 
As of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:
1-- 
[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&amp;s=3&amp;r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.
2-- 
[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&amp;s=2&amp;r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.
Neither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. 
Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?
Resolution
This questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&amp;include=on&amp;wordVariants=on&amp;titles=on&amp;summaries=on&amp;actions=on&amp;congresses%5B0%5D=all&amp;legislationNumbers=&amp;legislativeAction=&amp;sponsor=on&amp;representative=&amp;senator=&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded&amp;q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:
""Climate engineering"" OR ""geoengineering"" OR ""Solar radiation management"" OR ""Stratospheric Particle Injection"" OR ""Stratospheric aerosol injection"" OR ""Marine cloud brightening"" OR ""Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement""
",42,3
"When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/","Metaculus","[]","Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:
---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), 
---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), 
---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), 
---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). 
According to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.
In 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.
When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?
Resolution
This question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.
Data
[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",56,3
"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.
In a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:
In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
The preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.
Other scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): ""There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find"".
Resolution
This questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) 
---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) 
---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) 
---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) 
---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) 
---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) 
---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) 
---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) 
---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) 
---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&amp;meta=) 
---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) 
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.
Assessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include ""probably"", ""likely"", ""with high probability"" and ""almost certainly"".
",463,3
"Will US income inequality increase by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.
Therefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.
At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?
For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.
",219,3
"When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/","Metaculus","[]","[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.
Since the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. 
This question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?
This question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.
To qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.
Changelog:
---2020-09-16: the sentence ""The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts"" was changed to ""The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans"". 
",232,3
"Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. 
Will Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?
This question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By ""related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project"", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.
",171,3
"If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, 
how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/","Metaculus","[]","Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]
If whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. 
[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the ""overshoot"" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.
How much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?
Methodology
In line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:
This figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.
Resolution
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.
This cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. 
By ""cost-per-hour"" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of ""subjective time"", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of ""subjective time"".
",103,3
"Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.
This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?
Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.
",1253,3
"How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.
How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?
This will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as ""extinct"" or ""critically endangered (possibly extinct)"" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.
",24,3
"Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a ""the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years."" The research suggests that ""the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000."" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.
Given that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:
Will any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?
This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)
",865,3
"Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?
This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.
",70,3
"When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/","Metaculus","[]","Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. 
The option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.
Uber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.
As Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:
“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.
When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?
Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.
",42,3
"When will the student loan debt bubble ""pop""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/","Metaculus","[]","It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. 
[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school ""with a significant amount of loans"" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's ""trillion"" with a ""T"". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)
In November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):
The average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. 
Many independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.
In April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that ""In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.""
Billionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): ""I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.""
Clearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble ""burst""? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by 
A cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.
A [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.
We'll ask: 
In what year (if ever) will the 3-year rate, as defined above, reach 20% OR the 12 year rate reach 40%? 
In each case the resolution date is defined by the middle of the year at the end of the interval in question. Resolution is by govt. or private numbers comparable in methodology and results to the above two reports.
",154,3
"Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?
Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?
We will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.
If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. 
If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. 
If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. 
The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. 
",122,3
"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).
Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?
This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.
",45,3
"What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/","Metaculus","[]","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.
It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.
What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
The official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous
Related questions:
[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)
",54,3
"For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.
It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. 
You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)
Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.
With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.
Similar Questions:
[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)
[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)
For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
",38,3
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?
This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.
Prices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). 
",45,3
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:
""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---80 for the calendar year 2017 
---127 for the calendar year 2018 
---275 for the calendar year 2019 
---420 in the calendar year 202 
",54,3
"When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/","Metaculus","[]","[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). 
The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?
For the purposes of this question, ""currently undiscovered"" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.
For this question, a ""social media"" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.
",83,3
"What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.
This question asks:
What will China's HDI score be in 2030?
--- 
This question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).
--- 
If the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.
",45,3
"What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus)
There are already questions about the number of deaths that will be attributed to the disease before 2021, as well as the number of cases and estimated infections that will develop. However, there are some reasons why specific questions about ratios of these values will be useful:
--- 
While dividing the median for deaths by the median for estimated infections may give a reasonable point estimate, it doesn't give all the info we want. With this question, we will be able to see the distribution of infection-mortality rates. This cannot be reliably inferred using the distributions for number of cases and number of deaths, because the variables are correlated.
--- 
The time-series graph provided by the question will show how predictions about infection-fatality rates change over time.
Resolution: The resolution for this question will be determined by directly dividing the number of fatalities by the total number of cases, using the resolution values given by the following two Metaculus questions:
--- 
Numerator: [How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-before-2021/)
--- 
Denominator: [How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/)
There may be more sophisticated ways of determining infection-fatality rate, but we would like to stay consistent with the other Metaculus questions.
Edited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather than the case-fatality ratio.
Edited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021.
Edited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/).
",1782,3
"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). 
However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. 
In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.
Before Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?
All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.
For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.
",251,3
"Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [""A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology"".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)
The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.
An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.
The design calls for twelve pumping stations to be spaced evenly along an equatorial circle. Each station has its own independent glucose-metabolizing powerplant, glucose tank, environmental glucose sensors, and glucose sorting rotors. Each station alone can generate sufficient energy to power the entire respirocyte, and has an array of 3-stage molecular sorting rotor assemblies for pumping O2, CO2, and H2O from the ambient medium into an interior chamber, and vice versa. The number of rotor sorters in each array is determined both by performance requirements and by the anticipated concentration of each target molecule in the bloodstream.
The equatorial pumping station network occupies ~50% of respirocyte surface. On the remaining surface, a universal ""bar code"" consisting of concentric circular patterns of shallow rounded ridges is embossed on each side, centered on the ""north pole"" and ""south pole"" of the device. This coding permits easy product identification by an attending physician with a small blood sample and access to an electron microscope, and may also allow rapid reading by other more sophisticated medical nanorobots which might be deployed in the future.
The promise of artificial mechanical red cells is that it gives physicians the ability to precisely control saturation curve profiles independently for oxygen and carbon dioxide, either to maximize gas transport efficiency or to meet specialized demand functions imposed by emergency situations, unusual activities, or specific medical treatments.
Respirocytes are an example of molecular nanotechnology, a field of technology still in the very earliest, purely hypothetical phase of development. Current technology is not sufficient to build a respirocyte due to considerations of power, atomic-scale manipulation, immune reaction or toxicity, computation and communication. Creation of this kind of device would require multiple technological breakthroughs. For further information on respirocytes, see e.g. [this essay by Freitas.](http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes)
This question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?
Resolves positively upon the publication of an article in a respectable scientific journal indicating that such devices have been successfully used in a living mammal to meaningfully augment and or replace (partially or totally) the existing supply of red blood cells. A meaningful augmentation is an augmentation resulting in a non-trivial increase in overall performance of the existing red cell population. These respirocytes will need to be perform at least some gas transport function, and be principally the product of nanotechnology techniques, including (but not limited to) those outlined by [Freitas' article](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html). This therefore excludes transfusions of modified red blood cells from existing organisms. Finally, the mammal needs to survive at least 7 days after the introduction of the respirocytes.
",122,3
"Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3110/will-the-mars-2020-helicopter-fly/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","NASA [is putting](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7489) a [small](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout#Design) (2 kg, 1 m) [helicopter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPL_Mars_Helicopter_Scout) on the [Mars 2020 Rover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_2020). It is very much a proof of concept, being designed for 5 short (3 min.) flights and only carrying a camera. But it opens the door to much more ambitious powered flight vehicles on Mars and elsewhere.
Question: Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back at least one picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?
Resolution details:
---The picture must be taken while the helicopter is flying under its own power on Mars. 
---The picture must make it back to earth, and be published by NASA. 
---This resolves negative if a flight is attempted, but no such picture is obtained. 
---This resolves ambiguous if no relevant flight is attempted before 2022. 
",156,3
"When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

Closing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. 
WeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. 
As WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. 
Predictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.
When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.
",32,3
"What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).
Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.
What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?
",84,3
"Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. 
As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Will Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?
This question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating ""repressed economic activity"". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.
Edit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.
",223,3
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?
This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. 
",189,3
"Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). 
AIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.
HIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]
According to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. 
According to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.
Since the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.
Substantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).
This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?
",203,3
"When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/","Metaculus","[]","Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).
When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?
---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). 
---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. 
---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as ""&gt;2050-09-05"". 
",69,3
"What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.
While beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. 
With an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.
What percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).
",29,3
"If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the ""red button"" be pressed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.
One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:
And you can also play on hard mode: ""During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.""
Lesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given ""launch codes"" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.
If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the ""red button"" be pressed?
If the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.
",71,3
"In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"".
As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.
France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).
The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).
The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. 
Hungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).
In Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.
In January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic
[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.
In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.
In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?
This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.
",29,3
"Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. 
An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. 
Article V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.
The other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.
The actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” 
Following a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. 
This question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?
Any and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.
",157,3
"If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/","Metaculus","[]","The catchphrase [""I've fallen and I can't get up,""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.
Researchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.
When will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?
This question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.
",44,3
"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. 
Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. 
Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. 
Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.
",139,3
"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:
Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:
""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.""
The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. 
---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. 
",61,3
"What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).
The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.
What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. 
",101,3
"With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to ""never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices."" 
Notably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.
Several treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.
Arguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.
It's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.
Will a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?
This question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.
",259,3
"Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/","Metaculus","[]","This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).
In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler &amp; Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;
Parameter Distribution:
--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). 
--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. 
I thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.
Some of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.
It would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. 
In this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .
It is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",234,3
"Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)
In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&amp;utm_term=link&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.
The massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.
Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.
""Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,"" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
""Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,"" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.
Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?
This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.
This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.
",174,3
"Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.
It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.
Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.
It is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?
Consumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.
The question resolves positive if either: 
---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.
OR
---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. 
The question resolves negative if neither condition is met.
We shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.
",465,3
"Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.
Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.
The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).
If the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.
Previous question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)
",210,3
"Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.
An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.
Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)
Will a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? 
Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).
There will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.
",293,3
"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.
Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.
This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?
By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.
To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.
",254,3
"Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.
In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?
Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.
",370,3
"Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)
The fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.
Since the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.
This question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?
To resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.
The clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)
",280,3
"Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/","Metaculus","[]","This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:
--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). 
--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. 
In this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.
Most estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.
The lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",288,3
"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/","Metaculus","[]","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.
Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.
What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021
This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. 
This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.
",131,3
"Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: 
---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; 
---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; 
---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. 
This falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. 
However, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.
In 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).
Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?
This question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.
Historical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).
",88,3
"Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:
---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) 
---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) 
---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) 
---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) 
---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) 
---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) 
---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) 
To date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.
This question asks:
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?
The question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.
The question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:
---Creating the AI system. 
---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. 
---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. 
---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. 
---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. 
The AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.
The question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.
If the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.
",149,3
"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States.
As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html)
In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection.
On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H)
Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?
This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing.
If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. 
",318,3
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with ""Yes"" or ""No"", was ""Should Scotland be an independent country?""
The ""No"" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. 
Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question ""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"" with ""Leave,"" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with ""Remain."" The ""Leave"" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.
However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for ""Remain.""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)
The fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. 
This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?
For this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.
If, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.
In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.
In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.
In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.
",621,3
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?
Resolution
This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---779 for the calendar year 2017 
---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 
---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 
",82,3
"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.
One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.
At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of ""Top Charity"" and a type of work of ""Reducing Wild Animal Suffering""?
",158,3
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?
This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",42,3
"Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)
According to the BBC: 
It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.
The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.
The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.
They found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.
Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.
The virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).
[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that ""G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.""
This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?
For a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.
",64,3
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). 
What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?
This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. 
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",174,3
"When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/","Metaculus","[]","related questions: 
---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) 
---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) 
---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) 
In 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_(video_game)).
As of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.
I attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)
An AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
This question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.
With regard to pretraining, the question allows:
---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game 
---unlimited training on all other Atari games 
---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set 
---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. 
Besides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.
In general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. 
",39,3
"On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/","Metaculus","[]","The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.
This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:
Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]
As of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://(https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler)). 
How many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue ""Broiler"", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.
",125,3
"What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/","Metaculus","[]","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.
Here, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?
Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.
Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.
Closing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)
",145,3
"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party.
In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.
More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?
Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.
",34,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). 
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",175,3
"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. 
This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.
A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).
",578,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. 
[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.
What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?
This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",216,3
"Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Each year since 2011, the programming Q&amp;A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.
However, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:
Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?
This question resolves positively if:
1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, 
2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and 
3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. 
If Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.
Stack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. 
",56,3
"When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/","Metaculus","[]","The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).
When will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?
Resolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.
The question resolves as ""&gt;2040"" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.
",69,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",66,3
"Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).
However, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).
There is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).
Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?
This question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.
The question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.
Related question:
[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)
",135,3
"When will the 10,000th human reach space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/","Metaculus","[]","The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.
The first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. 
As of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) 
This question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?
Resolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.
Persons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. 
Persons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.
Finally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.
",172,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). 
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",195,3
"What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/","Metaculus","[]","A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. 
Estimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)
This huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full ""strong"" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains ""human intelligence parity"" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.
What will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? 
The point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.
Fine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.
(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)
",202,3
"When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/","Metaculus","[]","The scientific definition of ""species"" is surprisingly complicated.
As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:
At first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.
For the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): ""a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature."" 
Evolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.
And of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.
How many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? 
We'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.
",202,3
"When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/","Metaculus","[]","Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.
Fast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.
The question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?
Resolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).
",82,3
"Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.
Farage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. 
In May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. 
This question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?
Resolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.
",230,3
"What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?
This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)"" and ""[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm())"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",194,3
"What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/","Metaculus","[]","[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.
Suppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.
What is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?
--- 
Drugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 
--- 
Non-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging
",70,3
"Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. 
Recently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, 
As the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.
In their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.
There are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course ""other."" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:
Luckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:
Will the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? 
Resolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.
",44,3
"Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. 
Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?
This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.
",47,3
"Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.
[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.
[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.
As of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.
In 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, ""I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones"". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?
This question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:
1-- 
A military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.
2-- 
At least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.
(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third ""described as WWIII"" criterion.)
",576,3
"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
Other Related Questions:
[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)
[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)
What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",61,3
"Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,
a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.
The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:
The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]
Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.
If by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
",59,3
"When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. 
“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”
If demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. 
As the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. 
When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?

Data
====

Historical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).
",31,3
"If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5129/if-california-passes-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-what-will-ubers-adjusted-ebitda-for-the-mobility-segment-be-in-q1-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5129)
In 2019, California passed Assembly Bill 5 (AB 5), which assumes a worker is an employee, rather than an independent contractor, unless [three criteria are met](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Assembly_Bill_5_(2019)). In August 2020, the Superior Court of San Francisco ruled that [Uber and Lyft had violated AB 5](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)).
Proposition 22 is a ballot initiative that would override AB 5 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, not employees. DoorDash, Lyft, Uber, Instacart, and Postmates have provided $110M in campaign funding for Proposition 22. The stipulations can be found [here](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_22,_App-Based_Drivers_as_Contractors_and_Labor_Policies_Initiative_(2020)). Proposition 22 is scheduled to be voted on on November 3, 2020.
In Q2 2020, Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility (i.e. ride-sharing) segment was [50M](https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2020/Uber-Announces-Results-for-Second-Quarter-2020/default.aspx). Historical data can be found in [Uber's quarterly reports](https://investor.uber.com/financials/default.aspx).
If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?
Resolution:
---If Proposition 22 is passed before March 31, 2021, this question resolves according to the adjusted EBITDA for mobility reported in Uber's Q1 2021 quarterly report. 
---If Proposition 22 is not passed before March 31, 2021, this question resolves ambiguously. This includes if the vote is canceled, if it is postponed to a date before March 31, 2021 and then does not pass, or if it is postponed to a date after March 31, 2021. 
Other possible world:
---[If California does not pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5130/if-california-does-not-pass-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-how-many-active-drivers-will-uber-have-in-california-per-quarter-in-2021/) 
See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
",84,3
"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.
",76,3
"What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/","Metaculus","[]","Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). 
Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.
South Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK ""wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank"". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.
The question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?
Because the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.
",50,3
"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)
Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.
For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.
1-- 
At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.
2-- 
Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.
3-- 
There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, ""a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.""
4-- 
A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.
5-- 
A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.
6-- 
Brian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.
",78,3
"How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/","Metaculus","[]","According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). 
How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
Resolution
This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: 
Regions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: ""Producing Animals/Slaughtered""
Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
",89,3
"When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5744/date-when-150m-in-us-vaccinated-from-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.
In November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)
Based on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.
When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?
This question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as &gt;01 January 2023.
",83,3
"Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).
His preservation was rather primitive and late:
Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].
A longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).
Because he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?
For the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.
Related questions:
---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) 
---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) 
",72,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). 
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",60,3
"Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.
A little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. 
In terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.
However, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:
Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?
For the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with ""Earth"" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.
",356,3
"When will the world have reached peak Facebook?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/","Metaculus","[]","Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.
While there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.
But while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:
When will the world have reached peak Facebook?
For the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",78,3
"How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

In 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. 
With the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.
How much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.
",34,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection  Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
The index is constructed as follows:
--- 
We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
--- 
The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:
Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).
Historical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. 
",79,3
"Will humans go extinct by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.
In 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.
Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? 
For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)
N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.
",698,3
"When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/","Metaculus","[]","Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.
This question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? 
By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.
Resolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.
",141,3
"Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.
Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. 
The Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.
Let's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.
Does collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.
Note that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.
Resolution:
--- 
This question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.
--- 
It will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.
--- 
Both of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.
If no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.
Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) 
---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) 
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) 
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) 
",83,3
"What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.
What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?
Flightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.
",151,3
"In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/","Metaculus","[]","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.
In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. 
If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?
If no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.
",33,3
"In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): ""global humanitarianism"", ""risk tolerance and patience"", and ""action in the face of humanity"".
More broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under ""effective altruist principles"" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.
In the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?
The question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.
Judging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.
If Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.
",29,3
"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.
In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.
When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?
Resolution
This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to those recorded below.
This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.
Data
These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):
2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)
",71,3
"Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1139/will-a-scientific-mission-to-the-outer-solar-system-be-assigned-to-the-falcon-heavy-by-mid-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","NASA, sometimes in cooperation with other countries, launches missions to space to study planets, stars and other celestial bodies. In order to do this, scientists and engineers have to account for factors, such as money and weight.
To make a decent mission and to gather as much data as possible, a probe that NASA could send has to carry with it many scientific instruments. The more instruments there are, the heavier the probe is (and more expensive). The heavier the probe is, the more powerful the rocket to send it has to be. The more powerful the rocket is, the more expensive the mission is. Money and weight are the two main factors to make a mission to space.
These days, NASA's budget is more and more reduced. It was 0.47% of the federal budget in 2017 whereas it could reach 4.41% during the Apollo era. Only a few missions can be made, and most of them concern the study of Earth, stars, or the internal solar system. Even though some missions plan to study Jupiter, its moons, and sometimes Saturn, not a single mission, not even as a project, is planified to study space beyond the orbit of Saturn at the moment. The last and only mission that studied Uranus and Neptune was Voyager 2 and New Horizons studied Pluto for a few hours after a 9 years journey through space.
But earlier this year, the Falcon Heavy was launched for the first time. SpaceX's new heavy launcher, and current most powerful rocket is capable of launching 63,800 kg to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and 3,500 kg to Pluto, for a cost of 150M $, whereas the Delta IV heavy, the previous most powerful rocket, could only launch 28 790 kg to LEO for a cost of 400M $. The price of the kg in space is almost 6 times lower for the Falcon Heavy than the Delta IV Heavy (2351 $/KG → FH -- 13893 $/KG → D4H).
Therefore, the Falcon Heavy offers to NASA and other agencies the possibility to multiply its capacities of studying space and for a lower cost.
Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy within the next 5 years? 
resolves positive if by end of July 2023, a credible media or other announcement indicates that a contract has been signed with SpaceX as one party, for the purpose of a scientific payload being launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket. ""Scientific payload"" here shall be taken to be a payload paid for by a nonprofit or government agency with scientific but not military, communication, etc. application.
",349,3
"How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.
How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?
This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""AI ethics"", ""AI fairness"", ""racial bias"", ""gender bias"", ""algorithmic bias""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.
",38,3
"Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.
As Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.
A key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.
Here are some articles describing these issues:
---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) 
---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) 
---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) 
Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.
This question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.
For the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:
---Donald Trump 
---Donald Trump Jr. 
---Eric Trump 
---Ivanka Trump 
---Tiffany Trump 
---Melania Trump 
---Barron Trump 
---Jared Kushner 
",177,3
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?
This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. 
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",103,3
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?
This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---779 for the calendar year 2017 
---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 
",195,3
"Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.
[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
",37,3
"Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
Various notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:
---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist 
---Voltaire, French philosopher 
---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor 
Although no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).
Will there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?
This resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.
",218,3
"When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/","Metaculus","[]","Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.
However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. 
Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. 
Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.
See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)
This question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?
For the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",91,3
"Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):
P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.
According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.
In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). 
Will renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?
Resolution
This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",49,3
"What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).
What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?
---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&amp;v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. 
",32,3
"Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)
Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.
[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:
--- 
At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy
--- 
At least 27% increase in energy efficiency
Will the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.
",301,3
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/","Metaculus","[]","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).
Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?
This question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.
This question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.
Related questions:
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)
",125,3
"Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).
Dean Mullen writes,
Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.
and Jeff T Kaufman countered with,
Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.
No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from ""legal and common"" to ""completely banned"" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.
If the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
The rules for resolution are specified as follows,
1-- 
The bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.
2-- 
A slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.
3-- 
The legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.
",38,3
"Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named ""penicillin"" - the antibiotic we know and love today.
Since the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.
But they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).
In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:
At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?
",94,3
"On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

The solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. 
As [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:
“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” 
Forecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. 
On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.
",37,3
"Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. 
In order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. 
This question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.
",204,3
"Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. 
This finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding ""dogma"" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. 
In some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being ""written to the cortex"" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.
But a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.
The Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. 
Then in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.
So which is it? 
Either: 
1-- 
Adult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or 
2-- 
NG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.
Assuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.
Resolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define ""definitive"" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.
",146,3
"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/","Metaculus","[]","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. 
This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))
Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:
When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?
By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.
",65,3
"Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:
""So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? 
""You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.
""The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).""
Bostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).
The kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.
The question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?
""The human condition,"" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. 
The discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.
Events that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.
Resolution
If at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are &gt;= 98% or &lt;= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.
Note that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.
If the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.
",147,3
"How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.
How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?
See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)
",194,3
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2021-06-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",83,3
"What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus","[]","World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.
",64,3
"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2021-06-14?
This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.
As of writing this question, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
This question resolves ambiguously if the S&amp;P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:
--- 
Companies amounting to &gt;25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed
--- 
Companies amounting to &gt;25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added
",256,3
"Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.
He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.
Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running ""to be a watchdog on the inside"" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.
This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?
The question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.
The question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.
",251,3
"When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. 
ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).
If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.
If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.
When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? 
Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.""
",502,3
"How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens &lt;18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.
A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.
How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?
Broad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict &lt;18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. 
Restrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if &lt;18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.
Voting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.
At least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising &lt;70% of the country's population do not suffice.
Resolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.
",29,3
"When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/","Metaculus","[]","IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.
[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.
When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?
Resolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.
",58,3
"Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.
[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.
In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.
Countries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.
How many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?
This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.
",190,3
"Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"". 
As of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below ""Top Charity"".
Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
By ""primarily operating in China"" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. 
The question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",83,3
"Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):
George Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.
Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?
This question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.
",33,3
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).
In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.
As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?
This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14. Performance results reported by e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, or blog articles by reputable AI labs may also be consulted.
Performance results must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14 to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",208,3
"How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/","Metaculus","[]","I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.
Physical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.
I ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.
",31,3
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).
How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""few shot"", ""1-shot"", ""one-shot"", ""five-shot"", ""10-shot"", ""ten-shot"", ""zero shot"", ""0 shot"", ""low-shot learning"", ""small sample learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:
---203 for the calendar year 2017 
---350 for the calendar year 2018 
---700 for the calendar year 2019 
",257,3
"What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [""the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.""](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.
This question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
In 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).
This question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.
",32,3
"Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.
An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.
Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)
Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?
Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).
This question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:
---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) 
",57,3
"Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11"" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.
Other people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).
Can people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: 
Normally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.
But surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. 
Here's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: 
---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous 
---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point 
[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: 
the primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. 
And this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: 
Many joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.
All that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?
More specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a &gt; 9' tall human?
9 foot = 274 cm
",224,3
"Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.
What is the ultimate fate of the ""stuff"" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.
After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.
But what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:
--- 
We could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.
--- 
A [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.
--- 
Protons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.
What do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? 
Question ""resolves"" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)
",67,3
"Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),
Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.
Advocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),
As part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.
Research shows that there are a high percentage of people in the ""overweight"" or even ""obese"" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of ""normal"" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?
Other researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),
The validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias &amp; Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including &gt;6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias &amp; Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).
Nonetheless, Fontana et al. state,
the prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.
reflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).
Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,
--- 
Used the words ""Health at Every Size"" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)
--- 
Discontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.
--- 
Made the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.
This question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.
",31,3
"Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)
a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.
It was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. 
Alcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.
A common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and ""[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)"" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)
Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.
Will Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?
Resolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
",54,3
"How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). 
However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:
How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?
Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.
",85,3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. 
So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.
In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: 
--- 
the Johnson &amp; Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.
--- 
AstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.
--- 
Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial
--- 
Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial
How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.
",227,3
"What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/","Metaculus","[]","The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.
SENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. 
As a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.
Here's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.
This question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?
In the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.
",85,3
"Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)
an American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.
A host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). 
This question asks:
Will any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?
The list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:
---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) 
---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) 
---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) 
---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) 
---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) 
---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) 
---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) 
---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) 
For reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.
",57,3
"Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?
Source: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)
This resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.
",122,3
"When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/","Metaculus","[]","The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)
Open Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?
Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.
As of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?
Money donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.
By the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.
",39,3
"How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). 
The overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). 
According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.
How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
",168,3
"Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,
A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.
In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.
The photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.
The abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, 
While several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.
Photonic tensor cores are said to be ""ubiquitous"" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, ""machine learning cloud computing service"" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).
This question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.
",56,3
"If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/","Metaculus","[]","[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. 
1--Venus. 
2--Mars. 
3--Europa. 
4--Ganymede. 
5--Another moon of Jupiter. 
6--Enceladus. 
7--Titan. 
8--Another moon of Saturn. 
9--A dwarf planet. 
10-An asteroid. 
11-Another place in the Solar System. 
Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.
",83,3
"Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.
Recently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).
Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?
The question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard ""extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.
The question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.
Similar questions:
---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) 
---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) 
---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) 
",219,3
"How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Every year The Economist publishes the ""Democracy Index,"" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered ""Full democracies.""
The 4 categories are:
--- 
Full democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019
--- 
Flawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019
--- 
Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019
--- 
Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019
How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*
This prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as ""Full democracies"" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).
",38,3
"What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/","Metaculus","[]","From Wikipedia,
A capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]
In the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.
This question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.
In September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.
What will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?
Suppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. 
Ambiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.
",37,3
"When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/","Metaculus","[]","[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)
Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.
When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?
By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.
This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.
",85,3
"Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.
On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)
Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?
This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:
---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) 
---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) 
---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) 
",49,3
"What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: 
“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” 
Beisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). 
[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. 
What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

Resolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.
",18,3
"For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context
=======

In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. 
Heading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. 
However, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).
For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.
",50,3
"When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/","Metaculus","[]","Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.
The current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).
This question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?
If no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as &gt;2100.
Liam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).
Conditions:
--- 
Genetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.
--- 
The artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).
--- 
The run must start from an immobile position.
--- 
The athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).
--- 
The wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.
--- 
The run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.
--- 
The run must be on a flat ground.
--- 
Gravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.
The source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.
",35,3
"How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus","[]","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.
This question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
Question resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.
",122,3
"Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. 
Why do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: 
Much [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.
Several experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. 
Two of the most important include:
[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:
If we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.
[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): 
Hyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.
What do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? 
Question resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.
",154,3
"What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.
Reduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. 
What will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?
Resolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.
",52,3
"When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/","Metaculus","[]","Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).
As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.
When will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.
A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).
",78,3
"Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.
However, for many companies, ""going public"" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to ""cash out"" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.
Question: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
The obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.
I included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.
",64,3
"How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/","Metaculus","[]","Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. 
Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.
This question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.
If the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.
",61,3
"Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. 
The inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) 
For example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?
It is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?
Notes: 
--- 
Should the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. 
--- 
Should this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. 
--- 
Should the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.
",129,3
"When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/","Metaculus","[]","Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). 
Research suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). 
However, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). 
The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. 
However, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. 
Positive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.
",41,3
"What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).
Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.
Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers
Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.
What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?
Related questions:
[Total Retail Sales November 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5016/total-retail-sales-in-november-2020/)
[Total Retail Sales December 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5017/total-retail-sales-in-december-2020/)

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",126,3
"If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. 
This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)
Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. 
Question resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.
Resolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.
Some fine print:
--- 
The fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with ""MCAI"" substituted for ""GPT-3"" and ""5th graders"" substituted for ""4th graders"".
--- 
If there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.
--- 
The entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.
",42,3
"Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.
On October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:
I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.
Someone asked him to clarify his prediction: ""By market cap or evil?"", and Paul Graham responded:
By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.
Paul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.
Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?
This question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.
The valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. 
",71,3
"What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","related questions on Metaculus:
--- 
[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)
--- 
[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)
Cryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. 
Bitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.
What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?
This question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.
",25,3
"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.
This question asks:
Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.
If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.
2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a &gt;=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.
",497,3
"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.
You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).
The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.
What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?

Resolution Criteria
===================

This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.
",26,3
"Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. 
The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.
More details can be found here:
---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) 
---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) 
Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.
This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:
---Markus Braun 
---Jan Marsalek 
---Alexander von Knoop 
---Susanne Steidl 
---Jan Marsalek 
---Oliver Bellenhaus 
The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.
Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment
",40,3
"Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).
In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.
Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:
--- 
[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)
--- 
[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)
Some more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.
Currently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.
This question asks:
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
--- 
Resolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.
--- 
If GiveWell no longer maintains a list of ""top charities"", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.
--- 
""Mass deworming"" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.
--- 
If a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the ""primary intervention"" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the ""primary intervention"".
--- 
If deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether ""deworming"" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.
--- 
If GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.
--- 
Some of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.
",65,3
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
Resolution
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 
---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 
---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 
",83,3
"Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.
The Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).
This question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?
Specifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?
The question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).
The question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.
If for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.
",60,3
"Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. 
Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. 
Internationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)
These efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:
By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? 
Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.
",153,3
"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).
Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).
Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?
Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. 
Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.
",107,3
"What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. 
Considering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.
What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as ""Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019."" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.
",23,3
"How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/","Metaculus","[]","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. 
On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757
If the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",30,3
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.
How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the ""[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)"" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 
---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 
---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 
",172,3
"How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. 
Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. 
As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.
How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. 
The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.
",20,3
"Will a recession cause ""suicides by the thousands""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [""suicides by the thousands.""](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!
[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.
If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?
For purposes of this question:
---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. 
---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. 
---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. 
",570,3
"What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. 
In this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:
Average weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. 
For historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).
Resolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.
This question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).
",128,3
"When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/","Metaculus","[]","On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. 
On 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.
On 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.
India plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.
That’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.
Part of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:
When will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?
For the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.
",173,3
"How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.
What will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?
If [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.
",117,3
"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus","[]","In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): 
When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. 
Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to ""within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.""
Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).
When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
",127,3
"Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, ""worlds"" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. 
The other names of the many-worlds interpretation include ""the relative state formulation"", ""the Everett interpretation"", and ""the theory of the universal wavefunction.""
This question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.
[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.
",108,3
"When will a universal flu vaccine be available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/","Metaculus","[]","Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.
For at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.
When will a universal flu vaccine be available?
---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. 
---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.
------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. 
------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). 
---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. 
---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. 
---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. 
",67,3
"Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.
The message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. 
In March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.
Will a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?
This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.
",269,3
"What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

In the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized).
A [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. 
A new [COVID-19 relief bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/what-is-in-the-bipartisan-coronavirus-relief-bill-unveiled-monday.html) came before Congress this Monday, December 14th, offering $908 billion dollars. 
“The package is broken into two bills: The $738 billion Bipartisan Emergency COVID Relief Act of 2020 includes funding for enhanced unemployment benefits, another round of small business loans, emergency food assistance and emergency rental relief, among many other provisions, according to a summary of the package. Meanwhile, the $160 billion Bipartisan State and Local Support and Small Business Protection Act of 2020 provides liability insurance for businesses and funding for state, local and tribal aid.”
In its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers.
Historical data is provided on BEA's National Accounts [archive](https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=7). As an example, the data from July 2020 is provided [here](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/pi0720.pdf#page=7).
A similar question for Q4 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/)
What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled ""Unemployment insurance"", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2021 Q1. As of the October 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously.
",163,3
"How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/","Metaculus","[]","The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.
The [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:
1-- 
The race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.
2-- 
Attention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.
3-- 
A major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.
4-- 
In response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.
5-- 
One of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.
6-- 
DeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. 
7-- 
Facebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. 
8-- 
NVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.
How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?
Only prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.
Resolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.
The question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.
",65,3
"If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you ""wake up""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.
The basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)
The ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the ""large brain preservation prize"" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.
Let's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). 
What is the probability that the individual will ""wake up"" in essentially the same or better form than they died? 
We'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.
Note: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a ""headline"" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.
",556,3
"When will Croatia adopt the euro?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/","Metaculus","[]","Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.
This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?
This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.
",78,3
"Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context
-------

The Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.
As [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:
“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”
Interestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.
If Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.
“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”
Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

This question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",23,3
"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/","Metaculus","[]","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:
1--global poverty: 39% 
2--cause prioritization: 24% 
3--meta: 23% 
4--animal welfare: 8% 
5--long term future: 6% 
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?
Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.
The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.
If global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.
",18,3
"Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.
We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.
Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:
The evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].
Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.
For a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.
To establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.
See this this question's sister question on &gt;50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).
--- 
In the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.
--- 
Only evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. 
--- 
Meta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). 
",454,3
"Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.
This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:
--- 
Deliberate nuclear attack.
--- 
Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)
--- 
Accidental detonation of a weapon.
--- 
Nuclear terrorism.
For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.
See our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) 
",228,3
"How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.
Overall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.
While deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.
How many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?
Resolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.
",45,3
"How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. 
In 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.
[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).
This question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.
As reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? 
Linear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.
",373,3
"By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.
This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*
By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).
The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).
Metaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.
--
*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).
",80,3
"When will zettascale computing be achieved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/","Metaculus","[]","The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). 
The first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).
The first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.
When will zettascale computing be achieved?
Resolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. 
Historical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).
Distributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. 
",18,3
"What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.
In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.
[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.
What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?
Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.
",76,3
"What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&amp;C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):
Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. 
Following the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&amp;C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).
According to the [Council of Insurance Agents &amp; Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):
Premium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.
The same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.
COVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.
CIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:
""The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.""
What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?

Resolution Criteria
===================

This question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.
A question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)
",23,3
"What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/","Metaculus","[]","[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.
One proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.
What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?
Resolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as &lt;1 for that month, resolve at 0.
",28,3
"What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others.
What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD?
This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2021-06-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be given in nominal USD.
In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. 
",220,3
"How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

As new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. 
Orange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. 
[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. 
However, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. 
Currently, Orlando boasts a fleet of [5,375 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center.
The Floridian government announced an [$8.6 million investment](https://www.flgov.com/2020/07/10/governor-ron-desantis-announces-next-steps-to-strengthen-floridas-electric-vehicle-infrastructure/) to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their [Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan](https://www.fdacs.gov/Energy/Florida-Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap). They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida.
How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?

Resolution Criteria:
====================

Resolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.
Unfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. 

Data:
=====

Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. 
Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.
",41,3
"Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),
LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”
This prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?
Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a ""transformer"" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"". 
Either of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:
1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase 
language model ""state of the art""
Take the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.
OR
2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. 
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
",37,3
"What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/","Metaculus","[]","Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.
By estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.
Many theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.
Economic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.
In particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?
This question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves ""&gt;"".
For context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.
See also these related questions,
[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)
[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)
[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)
[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)
[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)
[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)
",49,3
"When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/","Metaculus","[]","[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.
Apparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.
The Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.
When will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?
---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). 
---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. 
---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. 
---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. 
",111,3
"What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. 
With new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price.
Low prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would [drop around 8.4%](https://insh.world/tech/what-if-all-cars-were-electric/#:~:text=Electric%20cars%20are%204%2Dtimes,would%20immediately%20drop%20by%208.4%25.). 
It is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers.
What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?
Resolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. 
Price data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.
",99,3
"In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/","Metaculus","[]","Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).
Since approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:
Roughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.
In the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?
Resolution
Estimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food &amp; Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.
In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
",61,3
"In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:
---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which
------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, 
------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, 
------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. 
---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. 
It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.
In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?
This resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.
See also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)
",154,3
"Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)
Not to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. 
In 2017, MDMA was designated a ""breakthrough therapy"". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) 
According to the FDA's website, a designation of ""breakthrough therapy"" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when ""preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement"" over other available therapies.
And in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)
The final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.
The third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.
The [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(18)30135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.
Large-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.
Side effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.
Other researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.
The non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. 
With the Breakthrough Therapy ""fast track"" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?
To resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. 
The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.
",225,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) [(Wang et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasises diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is T5: Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer [(Raffel et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which achieves an average score 89.3, just below the human baseline of 89.8
The SuperGLUE leaderboard may be accessed [here](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).
What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on SuperGLUE up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on any number training set(s). Performance is given in a ""score"", which is the average of various performance metrics (see [Wang et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) for more details).
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",266,3
"What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3802/what-will-be-the-doubling-time-of-covid-19-cases-during-the-peak-growth-period-in-2020/","Metaculus","[]","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 7 March 2020, more than 102,000 cases have been confirmed, of which 7,100 were classified as serious. 96 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.
This question asks what will be [the doubling time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doubling_time) of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?
The resolution will be based on the following equation that assumes exponential growth: 
This question will follow as much as possible the resolution criteria described in [the question about the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/). In short, this question will resolve at the end of March 2021 and will use the best available data for the whole world as made available by WHO.
The will be the 20th of January, because [the first WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4) is for that day and it estimates 282 cases. The will be the last day of the month with the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases. The time unit of and will be days.
The will be the total cumulative number of cases globally at the end of the month with the biggest increase. In other words, the number will be counted from the beginning of the outbreak and not during that single month.
For example, assume that February will be the month with the biggest growth then , will be the 29th February and .
This may differ from the official estimates because COVID-19 cases did not follow the exponential growth in February.
This question will resolve ambiguous if the question ""[Which month of 2020 will see the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)"" will resolve ambiguous.
You may also want to take a look at: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)
",379,3
"When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/","Metaculus","[]","For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for ""[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),"" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.
It has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly ""slotted in"" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:
When will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? 
For positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.
",297,3
"Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated ""life detection scale"", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.
The purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.
So on to the specific question itself. 
Water vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. 
We thus ask:
Will a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?
Resolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.
",97,3
"Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.
Jeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.
Versions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), ""the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections &amp; timing of events &amp; photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.""
The response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): ""You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing."" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that ""even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration."" After a ""rather tense"" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.
More recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.
In light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?

Resolution
----------

The question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:
1-- 
If the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.
2-- 
If the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.
3-- 
In the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).
In all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.
If the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.

Further reading
---------------

In addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:
--- 
Zak &amp; Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).
--- 
Robine, Allard, Herrmann &amp; Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).
",147,3
"What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6477/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-29-march/","Metaculus","[]","In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.
According to data from the recently launched [CoVariants.org](https://covariants.org/), the three variants in question — B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 — are [steadily increasing as a proportion of overall sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the US](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). 
The proportion of S:N501 among all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database in the US for the week of 2021-01-11 (2021-01-11 to 2021-01-17, inclusive) was [0.05, or 5%](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). Note that data for previous weeks are backfilled with sequences uploaded at later dates, so these percentages might change slightly over time — in other words, there is a lag between sequence collection and sequence upload.
In response to an increased incidence of S:N501 variants, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, further focus on contact tracing, and increase the rate of genomic sequencing.
Data sources and more information:
---[Distribution of S:N501 per country](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) 
---[CoVariants](https://covariants.org/) 
---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 
---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) 
---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) 
---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) 
---[S gene dropout patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests suggest spread of the H69del/V70del mutation in the US](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248814v1.full.pdf) 
---[Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends](https://www.helix.com/pages/helix-covid-19-surveillance-dashboard) 
What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive), as displayed on the ""Distribution of S:N501 per country"" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-12.
",103,3
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
Resolution
This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---779 for the calendar year 2017 
---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 
---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 
",84,3
"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/","Metaculus","[]","[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.
[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. 
--- 
If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.
--- 
If no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.
--- 
The first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.
--- 
Voters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.
--- 
Voters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.
This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.
In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.
[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.
What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?
This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.
",126,3
"A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.
What any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. 
Other types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.
But figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.
The bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.
The ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.
An understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.
Over the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.
[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.
Even though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. 
In the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.
The entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.
This question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?
This resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.
(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)
",290,3
"How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.
This question asks:
How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?
To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. 
If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as &lt;20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. 
",55,3
"When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/","Metaculus","[]","Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.
Opposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.
However, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.
When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?
This question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the ""means of power"" (broadly, controls the military and police).
If Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as ""&gt;"".
",26,3
"How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/","Metaculus","[]","From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),
The Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.
According to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), 
We refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.
As of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.
How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?
This question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
In case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.
",20,3
"How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).
One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.
Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)
",269,3
"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.
This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. 
This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. 
In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.
Other questions in the series. 
How many new cases of COVID-19 in:
---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) 
---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) 
---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) 
Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)
",870,3
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3434/philpapers-survey-mini-series-support-for-open-borders/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: 
The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions?
Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",88,3
"When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/","Metaculus","[]","Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). 
Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.
[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.
When will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?
This question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.
",146,3
"Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):
Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.
The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.
[In a brief announcing the arrest and unsealing of indictment documents](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), the DOJ also details that the charges are confined to McAfee the individual and that they did not find any connection with the “anti-virus company bearing his name.”
[The DOJ’s charges](https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1324536/download) against McAfee are a bit dry, but detail 10 counts against the entrepreneur. McAfee faced five counts of tax evasion, which each carry a maximum penalty of five years in prison, as well as five counts of “willful failure to file a tax return,” each carrying a maximum penalty of one year in prison.
[The SEC filing is a much more interesting read](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18506139/1/securities-and-exchange-commission-v-mcafee/), with 55 pages detailing a lengthy investigation into McAfee’s alleged fraudulent activity promoting a number of ICOs throughout 2017 and 2018. The report specifically notes that McAfee allegedly received more than $11.6 million worth of BTC and ETH tokens for promoting seven ICOs. Unfortunately, those offerings were not named in the suit. He additionally received $11.5 million worth of the promoted tokens, the suit alleges.
Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?
---If John McAfee pleads guilty or is found guilty and receives a prison sentence of at least 3 years, this question resolves positively. If he receives a lighter or no prison sentence, it resolves negatively. 
---If McAfee avoids extraction to USA and in this way avoids facing charges, the question resolves negatively at the closing date. 
---Positive resolution does not require McAfee to actually finish his three year sentence. 
---Serving a combined total exceeding 3 years in pre-trail detention and post-trail detention is sufficient for positive resolution. 
---If this question does not resolve positively before 2025-01-01, this question resolves negatively. 
",77,3
"When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","[]","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
Related questions:
---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) 
---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) 
[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
",181,3
"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. 
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2030-01-01?
This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&amp;P500 may be consulted.
As of writing, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
",44,3
"Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)
Psilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.
Despite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.
From [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)
A pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.
Roughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)
“I do feel very optimistic,"" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. ""One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.""
But the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”
Last year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)
""I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,""David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. 
So will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.
The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.
",242,3
"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/","Metaculus","[]","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.
If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?
If Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.
If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.
---Potential ""major media outlets"" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. 
---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. 
---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. 
",43,3
"Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).
Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&amp;source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.
At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.
The question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?
Question resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.
Question resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.
",131,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.
As Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), 
In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. 
Plants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.
Such self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.
Moreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.
Although only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally ""nanotechnology"".
In the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. 
If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?
The question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",138,3
"What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).
However, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).
How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?
The question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) 
This question will resolve specifically according to the ""% change 2019-2020"" for the row ""Total new STI diagnoses - total"". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.
If this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.
",62,3
"When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.
The [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.
In 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into ""intrinsic rewards"" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with ""intrinsic rewards"" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without ""intrinsic rewards"" only explored 2 out of 24.
In Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [""artificial curiosity""](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). 
We ask:
When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?
As of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) &amp; [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). 
Resolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).
",158,3
"Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. 
What global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?
We'll add these all up to ask:
What percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? 
Resolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.
",179,3
"Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. 
As reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).
The United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.
The United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. 
Volkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&amp;text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. 
A question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).
Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?
Resolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.
",41,3
"How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus","[]","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).
Dollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.
Currently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.
How much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.
In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.
The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.
In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.
",154,3
"Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). 
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"".
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?
Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",49,3
"Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context
=======

The kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.
According to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).

Question and Resolution
=======================

Will there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?
",39,3
"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.
[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. 
This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?
This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.
",253,3
"Who will first land a person on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/","Metaculus","[]","This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:
1-- 
The US government
2-- 
SpaceX
3-- 
Another government
4-- 
Another corporation or private organization
5-- 
Other (somehow)
Although Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the ""weight"" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.
Resolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.
Closes retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.
",231,3
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?
The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
",194,3
"Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.
In its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. 
On December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. 
In a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.
The [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.
Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?
This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).
The label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. 
",13,3
"By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). 
Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. 
By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.
Methodology
The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: 
When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. 
If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.
In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.
The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. 
",110,3
"Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5411/margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Margaret Ferrier, a British MP, has [attracted controversy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54383281) for travelling from Glasgow to London with Covid-19 symptoms, then returning home by train after testing positive in late September 2020.
Her party [has removed the party whip and suspended her](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54386872), and made it clear that she should resign as MP. But she has not yet resigned, [claiming that](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54496759) the illness ""makes you act out of character"".
Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?
This question resolves positively if Margaret Ferrier resigns as MP before 1st April 2021.
British MPs cannot technically resign; MPs who wish to step down are instead appointed to an ""[office of profit under the Crown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_from_the_British_House_of_Commons)"", which disqualifies them from sitting in Parliament. There are two fictional offices usually used for this purpose. By ""resign as MP"", this question means ""be appointed to an office of profit under the Crown"".
Note that there are [other ways](https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2011/12/13/want-to-fire-your-mp-here-s-how) that Ferrier could be removed as MP without resigning; these do not trigger positive resolution. 
",230,3
"Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.
Trump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.
As of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) 
If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.
Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?
This question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.
",275,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",102,3
"Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,
It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.
A world is said to have ""radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence"" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.
As a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.
While it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.
If no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.
",119,3
"Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.
Nigeria is often referred to as the ""Giant of Africa"", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)
Nigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_content=tictoc&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. 
About 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.
This question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?
Resolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.
Resolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.
",134,3
"What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/","Metaculus","[]","One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).
To shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:
What will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?
Resolution
--- 
This question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.
--- 
This question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.
--- 
For the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.
--- 
For the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).
--- 
To be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.
",87,3
"Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)
[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.
Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?
A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.
",35,3
"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/","Metaculus","[]","Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive. 
AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.
But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. 
It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:
When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? 
One issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.
For these purposes we will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.
--- 
Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). 
--- 
Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [""Winogrande"" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%
--- 
Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)
--- 
Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) 
By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)
Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.
",467,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.
In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.
In the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.
When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): 
1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. 
2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. 
In the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. 
If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?
The question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",260,3
"When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.
The Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [""any longer than we have to""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?
That is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?
The question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.
The question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. 
",323,3
"What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/","Metaculus","[]","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. 
[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.
It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.
What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
The official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous
Related Questions:
[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)
",58,3
"When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. 
In 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.
“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”
In case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. 
Moreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).
When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).
When unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.
",53,3
"Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context

Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)
This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?

Resolution Criteria

This resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:
---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. 
---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. 
---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). 
This will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.
Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.
Conflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.
Deaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. 
",197,3
"When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/","Metaculus","[]","In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. 
In recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the ""[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/)."" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.
To add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). 
How much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were ""very achievable.""
When will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?
This question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.
",211,3
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---80 for the calendar year 2017 
---127 for the calendar year 2018 
---275 for the calendar year 2019 
",164,3
"Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [""verbal approval""](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)
But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). 
Although implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.
Will the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?
This question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.
""Commerical Operations"" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.
",275,3
"Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [""to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.""](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).
The Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?
On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?
If the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.
The question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:
---Harvard ceases to exist. 
---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. 
---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). 
---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. 
",31,3
"What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.
Cryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.
Chances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.
I thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:
What percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?
""Revival"" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.
",35,3
"Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) 
For a precise question we'll ask:
By 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? 
Resolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for &lt; $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for &lt; $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)
",172,3
"Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the ""right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.""
All this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).
As such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.
Further complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.
Yet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).
As the saying goes, sometimes needs must.
Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?
---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. 
---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. 
---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. 
---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. 
",239,3
"Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).
Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
Over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).
Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).
Data
--- 
[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). 
--- 
[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
",87,3
"When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/","Metaculus","[]","Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are ""combination"" trucks such as tractor-trailers.
All of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:
When will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? 
For positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the ""passenger seat"" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) ""Coast-to-coast"" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)
",348,3
"When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","[]","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
Related questions:
---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) 
---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) 
[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
",162,3
"Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [""Death to Pennies""](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?
After all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. 
You can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.
They accumulate in jars and slow transactions.
Yes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):
Coins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.
Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.
[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that
Although it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.
At some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?
",372,3
"If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes
A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.
This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.
If a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
If no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",107,3
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/","Metaculus","[]","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).
Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?
This question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.
This question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.
Related questions:
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)
",142,3
"What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/","Metaculus","[]","According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.
Over the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.
What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?
Resolution
This question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).
For the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",163,3
"By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). 
The key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.
The main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))
There is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):
Animals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. 
Accordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.
Advocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).
However, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.
By the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.
",75,3
"Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),
a type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.
Market socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.
A nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.
An economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.
This question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?
If such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.
",54,3
"Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/","Metaculus","[]","This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
In this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.
There being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",234,3
"Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.
The highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. 
Will two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?
This question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.
",351,3
"When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/","Metaculus","[]","Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]
An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.
WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]
There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])
When will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?
This question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):
Success criterion of an individual brain emulation: 
The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.
Required properties of an individual brain emulation: 
Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)
Emulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.
",128,3
"A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.
Last year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.
[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .
According to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.
The reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.
Freedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.
What will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?
This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.
",153,3
"What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

Solar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.
[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. 
Robert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:
“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant."" 
Peak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. 
During periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). 
What will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

Question resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.
",54,3
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Few-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).
How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""few shot"", ""1-shot"", ""one-shot"", ""five-shot"", ""10-shot"", ""ten-shot"", ""zero shot"", ""0 shot"", ""low-shot learning"", ""small sample learning""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:
---203 for the calendar year 2017 
---350 for the calendar year 2018 
---700 for the calendar year 2019 
",107,3
"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.
International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.
Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).
Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.
What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? 
For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. 
(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)
",365,3
"Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. 
Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)
Will VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?
This question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.
",254,3
"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus","[]","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?
This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.
",68,3
"Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&amp;r=US&amp;IR=T). 
Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.
In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).
Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?
Resolution
This resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.
",68,3
"If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/","Metaculus","[]","If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.
Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.
See also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)
",38,3
"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). 
The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to the figures below.
Data
According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
",173,3
"When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/","Metaculus","[]","When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?
This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.
The question resolves as &gt;2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.
",203,3
"When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?
While seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.
Define an emigration crisis as:
---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. 
When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?
To operationalize this further, 
--- 
For something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where &gt;=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.
--- 
If &gt;50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. 
We ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.
On the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with &gt;50 predictions, is in the past:
With 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. 
With a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.
With 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.
If the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to &gt;December 31st, 2030.
The question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. 
All times in American Eastern Time. 
",70,3
"To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/208/to-the-stars-1-will-the-private-investment-in-laser-sail-extra-solar-travel-be-matched-by-a-comparable-amount-within-5-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Chemical rockets, while great for many purposes, will never get us far outside of the solar system. With the nearest stars parsecs away, reaching them in a human lifetime requires speeds of at least 10% the speed of light. As can be seen from the [rocket equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation), chemical rockets with exhaust speeds of a few km/s would require exponentially large mass to attain relativistic speeds of ~100,000 km/s. It's hopeless.
Unless relativistic exhaust speeds can be obtained (difficult!), leaving the solar system will require external acceleration. A variety of schemes along these lines have been proposed over the years. 
For example, the [""starwisp""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starwisp) is a small nanowire mesh ""sail"" driven by the radiation pressure of reflected microwaves; the microwaves would be produced by a phased array of terrestrial or orbital dishes. 
Recently, a detailed study of laser-driven sails [was posted](http://www.deepspace.ucsb.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/A-Roadmap-to-Interstellar-Flight-15-h.pdf) proposing use of newly-developed ultra-high-reflectivity materials, and (now technically feasible) phased arrays of optical/IR lasers. High reflectivity allows acceleration without incineration; phased arrays allow a highly collimated beam without a laser of enormous diameter.
While technically plausible, such systems would require large-scale investment in both R&amp;D and deployment on the scale of at least a major NASA mission or large-scale particle physics project. 
The possibility of this occurring just received a major boost with the announcement that entrepreneur and Philanthropist [Yuri Milner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Milner) has [committed $100 Million](http://breakthroughinitiatives.org) to a ""research and engineering program [that] will seek proof of concept for using light beam to propel gram-scale ‘nanocraft’ to 20% light speed."" 
In subsequent questions we will look at the probability of developing some of the necessary technologies to make a project like this a reality. Here gauge the overall prediction of success, as quantified by further investment joining Milner's, either before or after some of the results of the research it funds.
By April of 2021, will additional private or governmental sources provide a total commitment of funding to light-beam propulsion at least matching Milner's $100M?
Private funding commitment would come in the form of a publicly-announced commitment like Milner's April 12 commitment; public commitment should come in the form of one or more allocated grants to institutions, or approved budget line-items at NASA or other government agencies.
",259,3
"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/","Metaculus","[]","Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.
This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?
The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.
",158,3
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.
How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?
If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).
If GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.
If GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. 
A similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.
Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):
---2016: $890 
---2017: $823 
---2018: $617 
---2019: $592 
",78,3
"Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked ""How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?"" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.
As a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's ""card2code"" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.
The state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).
Effective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:
Will a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?
Positive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.
",166,3
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.
According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: 
The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
In the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the view that future AI systems will be conscious?
Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents that ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the answer ""future AI systems"" on the question ""for which groups are some members conscious?"" (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",86,3
"Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.
This question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?
For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.
Edit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.
",270,3
"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.
In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.
When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?
Resolution
This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to those recorded below.
This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.
Data
These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):
2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)
",58,3
"What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

The 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. 
A key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. 
In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. 
Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:
What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

Resolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.
",21,3
"How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.
Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.
How many emoji related court cases in 2021?
Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&amp;context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.
",34,3
"If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/","Metaculus","[]","If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.
Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.
See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)
",40,3
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",70,3
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: 
The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on choosing immortality?
Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on:
Immortality would you choose it?
This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",109,3
"When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.
Alternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=beyond+meat+market+cap&amp;meta=).
When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?
Resolution
Positive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words ""clean meat"", ""cultivated meat"", ""cultured meat"" or ""in-vitro meat"", ""cell-based meat"", or any variations where ""meat"" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. ""clean beef""), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline ""clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation"". 
The article should demonstrate that the term ""clean meat"" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term ""clean meat"" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.
Additionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. 
Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)
",132,3
"Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.
Washington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)
The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.
The matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.
A senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.
The meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.
The National Security Council declined to comment.
This question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?
This question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. 
There is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.
",123,3
"Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
For the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. 
One of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.
Additionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).
To continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.
The sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.
Progress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.
Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
Resolution
The question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: 
geometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) &gt; geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) &gt; geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).
Performance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).
As the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:
---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 
---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 
---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 
---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 
---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 
---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 
For example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:
---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 
---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 
---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 
---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 
---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 
---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 
The [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",41,3
"Will the next US recession turn into a depression?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is ""Will the US Experience a Depression?"" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):
A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.
According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?
This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). 
---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. 
",347,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).
The past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).
The implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.
While there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).
Deliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):
(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. 
[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:
---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, 
---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, 
---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. 
Finally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).
[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. 
If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?
The question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",199,3
"What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)
The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. 
The index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.
Conceptually:
Exact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).
The question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. 
The initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.
",41,3
"When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/","Metaculus","[]","The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as ""midnight"" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of ""minutes"" (and [recently ""seconds""](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.
Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.
This question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
This resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. 
If resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to &gt; 2100-01-01.
If either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.
",101,3
"When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/","Metaculus","[]","At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.
A [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]
The question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
The question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.
",83,3
"When will North Korea become a democracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/","Metaculus","[]","North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&amp;LangID=E), ""the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world."" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. 
North Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.
January 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves &gt; in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.
",64,3
"What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","[]","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).
The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). 
[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.
The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).
[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?
What will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?
Resolution
This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. 
In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.
",96,3
"In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/","Metaculus","[]","The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.
In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?
Resolution:
---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) 
---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. 
---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. 
",159,3
"Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.
Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.
The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling ""surface"".
""I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,"" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&amp;sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
""It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!"" she told BBC News.
Resolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.
",136,3
"Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?
This question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as ""price controls"", ""price ceilings"", ""price maxima"", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.
For the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:
---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) 
---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) 
---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) 
---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) 
---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) 
---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) 
---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) 
Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) 
---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) 
",175,3
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.
How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the ""[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)"" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 
---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 
---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 
---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 
",88,3
"Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in  2018?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.
It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).
This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.
Resolves:
---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 
---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 
---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) 
---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) 
My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.
",179,3
"What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","[]","In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.
[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.
What will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?
The question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).
",106,3
"20 more languages extinct by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/322/20-more-languages-extinct-by-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Linguists estimate that humans use around [7,000](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages. Only a few are considered global or widespread languages. The others, although spoken by small regional groups, are often key to the identity and heritage of their respective cultures.
Only 102 languages are considered ""International"" or ""National"" and are spoken by [60% of the world's population](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status), despite comprising only 1.4% of all documented modern languages. Globalization, including internet connectivity, international trade, and international travel elevate the importance of these top languages, particularly the six languages with [the most speakers](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/size): Chinese, Spanish, English, Arabic, Hindi, and Portuguese. 
Globalization can [endanger languages](http://motherboard.vice.com/read/globalization-is-a-leading-factor-in-the-death-of-minority-languages) as well because rising generations learn regional and national languages instead of local or traditional dialects. Estimates of endangered languages range from around [20%](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) to around [50%](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) of all documented languages. Hundreds of languages have already been lost, and the current language death rate is between [four](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) and [six](http://www.ethnologue.com/about) languages per year. [Ethnologue](http://www.ethnologue.com/), an annual report on language status, reports that 360 languages reported as ""living"" in their first 1951 report have since been classified as ""extinct."" [423](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages are considered [""nearly extinct,""](http://www.ethnologue.com/about/language-status) meaning that the only user are aging speakers who have little opportunity to use the language in everyday life.
But technology can also help preserve and revitalize languages, with digital documentation and [language resources](http://www.endangeredlanguages.com/) aiming to save some of the most critically endangered languages. Linguists also track languages that are ""reawakening,"" including [seven](http://www.ethnologue.com/country/US/status) in the United States currently enjoying a resurgence.
Will language loss rates increase by the end of the decade?
This question will resolve as positive if the 2021 edition of Ethnologue lists more than 380 extinct languages since 1951, which would indicate a language loss rate greater than four per year, and an acceleration in language loss.
",112,3
"Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.
Some crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.
Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?
This resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.
The $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.
",71,3
"How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. 
Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.
China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. 
However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. 
Changing the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).
How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?
Resolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). 
Data: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k
",43,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.
A good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.
For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",88,3
"Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. 
A nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).
This question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?
Resolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.
This question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).
In the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.
If one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.
Changelog:
---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). 
",178,3
"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/","Metaculus","[]","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) 
where input n is a positive integer.
The [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.
When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?
Take into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: ""Mathematics may not be ready for such problems"".
The question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.
Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) 
---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) 
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) 
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) 
",117,3
"If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.
The United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.
Thus we ask: 
Will we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?
This question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute
---three or more attacks over the span of one year, or 
---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years. 
For the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:
---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources 
and either of the following:
---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or 
---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. 
This question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.
",158,3
"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).
In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.
This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.
",160,3
"Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [""The Squad""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.
Americans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.
Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?
This question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
If any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.
In the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the ""Democratic Nominee"" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). 
",86,3
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/","Metaculus","[]","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).
Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?
This question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.
This question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.
Related questions:
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)
",127,3
"Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). 
The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.
---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) 
---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) 
---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) 
---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) 
Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?
This question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:
---Income Measure: ""Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line"" 
---Sample: ""All Individuals"" 
The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.
If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.
November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for ""late 2021"". 
",66,3
"How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/","Metaculus","[]","[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:
---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) 
---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) 
How many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?
Here are the last seven presidents for comparison:
Carter: 1.53 E.O./week
Reagan: 0.91 E.O./week
Bush I: 0.80 E.O./week
Clinton: 0.87 E.O./week
Bush II: 0.70 E.O./week
Obama: 0.65 E.O./week
Trump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)
How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?
The [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).
Related Questions 
---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) 
",58,3
"Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","So-called ""third parties"" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckly in 1970.
For the purposes of this question, ""independent"" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.
This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
",91,3
"When will the first human be born on another world?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/","Metaculus","[]","Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.
In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.
In that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?
The child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.
A 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.
'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.
",163,3
"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):
Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.
Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.
The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?
Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.
",247,3
"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).
In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?
Resolution
For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.
",187,3
"Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.
To pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:
Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?
For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.
Moreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).
Related question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)
",68,3
"Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).
Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?
This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.
",34,3
"What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/","Metaculus","[]","An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), 
One could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.
Furthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).
If Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. 
For example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?
The relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.
Real world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.
ETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.
",75,3
"When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/","Metaculus","[]","After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?
The question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.
",157,3
"In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/","Metaculus","[]","The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).
From its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. 
This question asks in which month will there first be &gt;=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).
Should the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.
If the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.
If this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as ""&gt; Jan 1, 2035""
",109,3
"If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/","Metaculus","[]","The great recession of 2007-2009 was the longest lasting contraction in the US economy since 1929, [lasting 18 months, peak to trough](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). 
The good news is that the banking systems are probably more resilient than a decade ago, when the crisis struck, due to improved capital and liquidity regulations. Moreover, we now have an improved familiarity with the policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves aimed at lowering interest and stimulating expenditure. 
However, with low policy rates, there is little room for monetary policy to manoeuvre in a recession without considerable creativity. Moreover, the fiscal policy outlook might be worrisome as well. Congress may have less room than it did during the Great Recession, with the country’s debt burden as a share of the overall economic output rising from [63 percent to 105 percent](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp), and the US deficit to GDP now being [4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007](US deficit to GDP is 4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007).
If the US goes into a recession before 2032, how many months will the economic contraction (from peak to trough) last?
A recession is here taken to be a two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. The duration of the contraction is taken to be the number of months from peak to trough in economic performance, as defined by the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html) to be a combination of real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI). This question will be closed retroactively at the end of the second quarter of decline in real GDP.
Data on durations of historical contractions in the US economy may be found at the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).
Edit: (20/02/19): if the US enters multiple recessions before 2032, this question will refer to the duration of the first one.
",584,3
"What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).
What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?
Resolution
This question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated ""layer flock size"" of ""all cage-free layers"" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).
",141,3
"What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank
is designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.
As of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?
",226,3
"When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/","Metaculus","[]","The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.
In 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.
Question: When will the JWST be launched?
This resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) through [any other mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch). The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.
For the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called ""JWST"", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for &gt;90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.
[This closed binary question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/613/will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020/) asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.
[This still open question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/) asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.
",233,3
"Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) ""Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders."". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.
Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?
This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). 
The relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.
Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:
---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity 
---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. 
Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.
",141,3
"What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)
What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?
What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?
Specifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.
For example:
---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 
---for Sep-2020 this value is: 
If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
",47,3
"2˚C global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.
Therefore, it is asked: 
Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.
(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)
Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.
The last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.
",362,3
"Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. 
For this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.
Let’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.
Will Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?
Resolution conditions: 
---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number 
---""By 2030"" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 
---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a &gt;100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. 
",93,3
"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

The solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. 
The [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, 
“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”
Because extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. 
If 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. 
What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.
",44,3
"What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.
At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?
This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",157,3
"Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.
This question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.
",167,3
"When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/","Metaculus","[]","[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).
[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.
When will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken ""ingredients"" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.
",77,3
"Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.
Carbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.
The milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.
The point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called ""[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)"" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.
Will earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?
For this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.
",240,3
"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","[]","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. 
According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:
According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.
Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.
When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed
Resolution
This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). 
This question resolves as &gt;2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.
The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. 
The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:
---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia 
---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island 
",71,3
"What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/","Metaculus","[]","The difference between tenure-track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) percentages reveals how many more higher education teachers are accepted into financially demanding roles at their institutions. This highlights the ability of American institutions to support tenured professors in the future and hints at the institutions' own predictions for financial stability. [AAUP](https://www.aaup.org/report/annual-report-economic-status-profession-2019-20) surveys on the academic labor force and the economic health of professors are reported through [The Annual Report of the Economic Status of the Profession](https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/2019-20_ARES.pdf). In the 2019-2020 school year, the percentage of TT teaching staff at private, religious, and public universities from both sexes, was 20.0% while NTT teaching staff represented 27% of the total academic workforce. The difference therefore as -7% between the two.
This question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?
This question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series
",94,3
"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.
The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX ""gets lucky and things go according to plan"", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. 
There have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?
",5080,3
"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. 
[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.
This question asks:
On 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?
This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. 
If Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.
If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
",56,3
"Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.
But how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.
We can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.
It is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? 
Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.
",495,3
"Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that
1--is in orbit around the Sun, 
2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, 
3--has ""cleared the neighborhood"" around its orbit. 
A debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].
The chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that ""clearing the neighborhood"" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.
The chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having &gt;50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.
This debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.
This now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, 
will the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?
Resolution details
IAU's 2006 definition is:
A “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. 
We'll refer to this as the ""original definition"". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:
---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or 
---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or 
---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). 
If more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. 
[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)
[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)
[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)
[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)
*currently characterized by the IAU as ""dwarf planets""
",75,3
"How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/","Metaculus","[]","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
With access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.
By contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.
As of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. 
In their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:
[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.
How many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?
This question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. 
If human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.
Related questions: 
--- 
[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)
--- 
[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)
",106,3
"When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).
When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.
For the purpose of this question, a company is a ""clean meat company"" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words ""clean meat"", ""cultured meat"" or ""in-vitro meat"", ""cultivated meat"", ""cell-based meat"", or any variations where ""meat"" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. ""clean beef""), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline ""clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering"". 
The article should demonstrate that the term ""clean meat"" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term ""clean meat"" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.
Additionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)
[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)
",228,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",139,3
"Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)
“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”
This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. 
The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.
The International Energy Association (IEA) states that:
“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”
China expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. 
Vehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. 
As credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).
Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?
Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).
",40,3
"When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/","Metaculus","[]","Why care
Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.
[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), ""fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation."" 
When will an organization first report a yearly profit?
This question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.
For a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.
Related questions
---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q &gt;= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) 
---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) 
",30,3
"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.
This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).
The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.
Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.
What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?
Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",37,3
"Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Derek Chauvin [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin),
an American former police officer charged with the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. During an arrest made by Chauvin and three other officers, he knelt on George Floyd's neck for almost eight minutes while Floyd was handcuffed and lying face down on a street. The death set off a series of protests around the world.
Chauvin was fired by the Minneapolis Police Department the day after the incident. He was initially charged with third-degree murder and second-degree manslaughter; a charge of second-degree murder was later added.
Some have suggested that he will be acquitted of his murder charges. From [a Medium post](https://medium.com/@gavrilodavid/why-derek-chauvin-may-get-off-his-murder-charge-2e2ad8d0911),
There are six crucial pieces of information — six facts — that have been largely omitted from discussion on the Chauvin’s conduct. Taken together, they likely exonerate the officer of a murder charge. [...]
1-- 
George Floyd was experiencing cardiopulmonary and psychological distress minutes before he was placed on the ground, let alone had a knee to his neck.
2-- 
The Minneapolis Police Department (MPD) allows the use of neck restraint on suspects who actively resist arrest, and George Floyd actively resisted arrest on two occasions, including immediately prior to neck restraint being used.
3-- 
The officers were recorded on their body cams assessing George Floyd as suffering from “excited delirium syndrome” (ExDS), a condition which the MPD considers an extreme threat to both the officers and the suspect. A white paper used by the MPD acknowledges that ExDS suspects may die irrespective of force involved. The officers’ response to this situation was in line with MPD guidelines for ExDS.
4-- 
Restraining the suspect on his or her abdomen (prone restraint) is a common tactic in ExDS situations, and the white paper used by the MPD instructs the officers to control the suspect until paramedics arrive.
5-- 
Floyd’s autopsy revealed a potentially lethal concoction of drugs — not just a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl, but also methamphetamine. Together with his history of drug abuse and two serious heart conditions, Floyd’s condition was exceptionally and unusually fragile.
6-- 
Chauvin’s neck restraint is unlikely to have exerted a dangerous amount of force to Floyd’s neck. Floyd is shown on video able to lift his head and neck, and a robust study on double-knee restraints showed a median force exertion of approximately approximately 105lbs.
This question resolves positively if Derek Chauvin is acquitted of ALL murder charges OR all murder charges against him are dropped. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If he dies before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.
Only convictions for offences actually called ""murder"" trigger negative resolution ; conviction for other offences such as manslaughter does not.
",613,3
"What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/","Metaculus","[]","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).
Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
Over the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 419.13 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to an average of 428.79 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).
What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020 to 2021 period (inclusive)?
Resolution
This question resolves as the arithmetic mean of the ""annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration data from the Mauna Loa monitoring station"" in 2020 and 2021, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).
Data
[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). 
[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
If you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments.
",236,3
"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).
The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.
This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?
In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.
The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:
Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 
",53,3
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)
The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.
How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?
This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:
--- 
the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change
--- 
positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation
If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.
",121,3
"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.
Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.
",82,3
"Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.
So how does one define that demarcation?
Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.
In practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. 
[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.
The FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.
Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?
This will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.
",165,3
"Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When a [massive solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society [would be catastrophic](http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9). Such storms are the subject of several other questions, particularly [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/519/will-evidence-emerge-for-solar-superflares/) regarding the frequency of such storms and [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/) regarding the construction of a satellite warning system.
Two Harvard University professors, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, recently [estimate the losses](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.05348.pdf) at $10 trillion, with a years-long recovery. In contrast to that cost, which is approximately [50 times the cost of NASA's initial efforts to send humans to the moon](https://christopherrcooper.com/blog/apollo-program-cost-return-investment/). Given estimates upward of 1%/year of such a flare, this sort of prospective loss arguably calls for significant spending at risk mitigation.
Beyond warnings or damage minimization, the above paper proposes a somewhat more radical astronomical protection plan. A loop of copper wire with a diameter similar to the Earth's, they say, powered by one terawatt, could create a sufficient magnetic field so as to deflect the energy of a solar storm enough to protect the planet's technology. Placed at the [Lagrange point L1](https://www.space.com/30302-lagrange-points.html), the loop would cost about $100 billion to construct, Lingam and Loeb estimate. (As a fun side-beneit, they investigate how we might look for signs of such shields built by other civilizations out there.)
Will anyone take this idea seriously? We'll ask the following:
By 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?
This question will resolve positively given a credible report that a grant, contract, budget line, or some similar allocation of funding equalling $100K or more has been made toward further study of, or designs for, an in-orbit Earth protecting magnetic deflection system. Effective cost of researcher or faculty time does not count, and the description of the allocation must somewhere directly reference Lingam and Loeb.
",250,3
"Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/","Metaculus","[]","This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:
--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). 
--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. 
In this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.
All evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.
For example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.
We'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",254,3
"When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/","Metaculus","[]","According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.
When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?
This question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been &lt;1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.
",243,3
"How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/","Metaculus","[]","[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.
Furthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.
There are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. 
Though direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.

How far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?

---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. 
",30,3
"Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. 
[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [""de-extinction""](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&amp;btkr=1&amp;redirect=true&amp;ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).
Studies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&amp;utm_medium=Sharebar&amp;utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).
On a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?
Resolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.
",642,3
"When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/","Metaculus","[]","[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.
GiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.
This question asks: 
When will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?
Resolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of ""top charities"", this question resolves ambiguously.
",71,3
"What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. 
This questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?
The total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).
",113,3
"Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","G.R.R. Martin's epic series ""A Song of Ice and Fire"" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series ""Game of Thrones."" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.
As of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.
By the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? 
For positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)
",96,3
"Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.
As described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.
One major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. 
Will a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? 
Positive resolution requires that: 
--- 
the figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and
--- 
the target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and
--- 
no other ""unintended"" people are significantly harmed in the attack.
",173,3
"If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).
This sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.
Joe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.
If Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?
Resolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.
",40,3
"Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. 
When two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.
Pulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. 
In a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).
Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?
This question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.
(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.
",261,3
"How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/","Metaculus","[]","The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).
The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.
How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?
This question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.
",121,3
"What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/","Metaculus","[]","As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.
It is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).
This question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?
In order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.
",117,3
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?
This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). 
In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).
Prices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
In case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.
",227,3
"Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.
As of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.
Sadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. 
So far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.
Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with &gt;5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?
Resolves positive for any exoplanet with &gt;5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.
",165,3
"Balloons to the edge of space – when?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/","Metaculus","[]","Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.
Ballooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)
Balloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.
When will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?
This question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).
",136,3
"What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/","Metaculus","[]","Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.
[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.
SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).
As of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.
Further, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.
SpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).
This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?
In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.
If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.
",89,3
"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","[]","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.
What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?
The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.
Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:
A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic
B) 0 &lt; p &lt; 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.
C) p &gt; 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.
I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.
I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.
",212,3
"If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/","Metaculus","[]","The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.
The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).
If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?
Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).
See also:
---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) 
",163,3
"When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/","Metaculus","[]","After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.
When will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?
---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:
------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. 
------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. 
------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. 
------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. 
------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. 
------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. 
------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. 
------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. 
---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. 
---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. 
---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of ""VR headsets"" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. 
---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. 
",41,3
"What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4036/what-will-chinas-unemployment-rate-be-for-q1-2021/","Metaculus","[]","During the last recession, China launched [an aggressive stimulus and credit expansion package](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/china-credit-expansion-unintended-consequences) which [kept the unemployment rate below 4.3%](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate) and reduced it over the following eighteen months. However, in the first two months of the nCov-19 pandemic, 5 million Chinese workers [have lost their jobs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html), many areas of the country remain in lockdown, and exports [have dropped by 17.2%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/china-s-jan-feb-exports-fall-17-2-y-y-in-dollars-est-16-2).
How successfully (or unsuccessfully) and how quickly will China manage this crisis?
The question asks: what will China's official unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?
The question will resolve as China's Q1 2021 unemployment rate per [CEIC Data](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate), as soon as it becomes available.
",155,3
"What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.
[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.
As of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. 
However, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: 
[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 &amp; 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)
This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?
Inflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.
",122,3
"Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.
[Batygin and Brown's paper](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
[Follow-up papers](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-ref_query?bibcode=2016AJ....151...22B&amp;refs=CITATIONS&amp;db_key=AST) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M) among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
The planet, however, remains to be found. 
If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
It thus seems timely to release this fifth update to our original, now long-closed, [Planet Nine question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/109/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-in-2016/). Specifically: 
Will the detection (by direct optical observation) of a new Solar System planet occur by July 1, 2021?
For this question to resolve as ""Yes"", the new Solar System planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.
",123,3
"When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/","Metaculus","[]","Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.
Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?
When will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?
This question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.
Economic activity will be counted as being ""off-Earth"" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.
As it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.
If this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.
If the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.
For the purposes of this question...
--- 
The term ""Gross World Product"" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.
--- 
The word ""humanity"" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). 
",41,3
"Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. 
With receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.
As such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. 
The creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:
1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). 
2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. 
These huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.

Will the SKA be operational before 2031?

---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 &amp; SKA2). 
---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 &amp; SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. 
",110,3
"Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).
Since the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.
Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?
This question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.
This question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.
In the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously. 
",57,3
"When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):
On April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.
Some states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. 
These were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:
---January 2019 676,190 
---February 2019 615,986 
---March 2019 738,969 
---April 2019 719,238 
---May 2019 751,725 
---June 2019 754,175 
---July 2019 783,588 
---August 2019 783,830 
---September 2019 716,792 
---October 2019 750,827 
---November 2019 703,616 
---December 2019 728,899 

Question
========

When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? 

Resolution
==========

This question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). 
To pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by 

Related Questions
=================

---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) 
---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) 
---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) 
",87,3
"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&amp;cust=us&amp;wiconly=1&amp;lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).
Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.
Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers
Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.
Related questions:
[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)
[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)
What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",45,3
"Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.
A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. 
These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.
Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).
One major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. 
You can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).
This question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?
This question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. 
For the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.
The question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.
",188,3
"When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/","Metaculus","[]","The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on ""growing teeth"" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:
Growing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.
The following timeline is included in the article:
2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.
2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.
2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less ""native"" teeth.
2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.
2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants
2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.
Similarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on ""tooth regeneration"" as of 2020-01-18 states:
Tooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.
There has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as ""Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth"" and ""Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals"".
The question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?
",89,3
"After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/","Metaculus","[]","Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.
Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),
Note that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.
and categorized takeoff durations into three types:
--- 
""A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.""
--- 
""A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.""
--- 
""A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.""
While it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,
Assume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:
Within two years of that point? ___% chance
Within thirty years of that point? ___% chance
The median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.
This question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).
If no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.
",144,3
"When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/","Metaculus","[]","[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).
The question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? 
This question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).
Further details: 
--- 
The date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count
--- 
By citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong
--- 
Genomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question
Genotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say &gt;500k). 
",29,3
"How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/","Metaculus","[]","At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled ""Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?"", Scott Alexander wrote:
Imagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.
If this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.
This question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:
Let the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. 
What will be the value of F/P?
The index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:
1--climate change 
2--global warming 
3--greenhouse gas 
4--greenhouse effect 
5--fossil fuels 
6--carbon dioxide 
7--sea level rise 
8--emissions 
9--renewable energy 
10-climate science 
The search terms used to generate the data are:
---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) 
---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) 
---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,climate%20science) 
The normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.
",100,3
"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/","Metaculus","[]","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.
[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?
If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""&gt; 2025-12-31"".
",98,3
"Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.
Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?
This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.
",222,3
"Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:
Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.
Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?
This question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.
",95,3
"What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/","Metaculus","[]","This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.
A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is ""a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals."" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.
Sponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.
What percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
Funds are considered expropriated if:
---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. 
---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. 
---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). 
---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). 
The following situations do not qualify as expropriation:
---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. 
---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). 
---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. 
[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.
[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.
",27,3
"Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.
This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.
Successful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.
",75,3
"How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/","Metaculus","[]","Caloric restriction is,
a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. ""Reduce"" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.
Assume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?
For the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that
--- 
Did not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction
--- 
Quit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. 
--- 
Began caloric restriction after the age of 50.
Of the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?
",73,3
"Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&amp;T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.
Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?
Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?
Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is ""in large part"" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. 
",27,3
"Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).
If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.
",77,3
"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.
How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?
--- 
Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.
--- 
In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.
--- 
Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. 
",172,3
"What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

The end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. 
The minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.
During a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.
When will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.
",44,3
"How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.
[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.
How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?
Resolution
This question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.
",161,3
"When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/","Metaculus","[]","[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.
Among the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.
That being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).
In order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).
When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?
Resolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.
",119,3
"Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.
Question: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? 
The question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.
It will resolve as negative if:
1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.
2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)
3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)
4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).
",89,3
"Will chess be ""weakly solved"" by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.
The [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that
Recent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers ""is to never underestimate the advances in technology"".
Here is the question:
Will chess be weakly solved by 2035? 
Chess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.
",343,3
"How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).
This question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.
How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?
This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.
",21,3
"When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/","Metaculus","[]","The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.
It seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:
When will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? 
Question resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.
Resolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.
(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)
",90,3
"How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/","Metaculus","[]","According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. 
How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
Resolution
This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: 
Regions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: ""Producing Animals/Slaughtered""
Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",94,3
"Will the ""silver"" Turing Test be passed by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A ""chatterbot"" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)
The format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.
A bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The ""silver"" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.
A ""gold"" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.
This question pertains to whether or not the ""silver"" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.
",1139,3
"Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3063/bitcoin-lightning-network-capacity-in-btc-on-2021-aug-25/","Metaculus","[]","Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the [lightning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network) [network](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp). A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.
At 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by [bitcoinvisuals.com](https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity)?
Different sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on [bitcoinvisuals.com](http://bitcoinvisuals.com) simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to [1ml.com](http://1ml.com), and then a third source if needed.
",159,3
"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus","[]","In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): 
When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. 
Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to ""within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.""
Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).
When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
Related questions:
[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
",108,3
"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.
",149,3
"The End of NAFTA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).
During his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.
We hence ask: 
will the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? 
This question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.
",259,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",93,3
"What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/","Metaculus","[]","The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.
Singapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.
Singapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)
This question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?
This question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.
If no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.
",140,3
"When will an AI pass the laugh test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/","Metaculus","[]","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:
...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.
For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)
Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? 
Fine print: 
--- 
The accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies ""I laughed or smiled."" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. 
--- 
The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.
--- 
It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.
",104,3
"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)
However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election
Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?
Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).
Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.
",75,3
"How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/","Metaculus","[]","The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.
How many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?
For reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.
* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.
",67,3
"Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.
Franchises that already are at the number 2: ""Half Life 2"", ""Portal 2"", ""Left 4 Dead 2"", ""Team Fortress 2"" and ""Dota 2"".
This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has ""3"" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.
",127,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
Index
The index is constructed as follows:
---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index 
---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:
Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).
Historical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).
What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. 
",198,3
"What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).
As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.
Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).
",98,3
"What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.
As of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. 
Last month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:
Commercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. 
According to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. 

Question
========

What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? 

Resolution
==========

This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends &amp; Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).
",184,3
"Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.
Volume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from ""gentle"" to ""mega-colossal"") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).
The scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.
An eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.
Three eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_(volcano)#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).
The most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).
By 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?
This question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. 
In case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.
",142,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
Index
The index is constructed as follows:
---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index 
---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.
For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. 
",172,3
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---80 for the calendar year 2017 
---127 for the calendar year 2018 
---275 for the calendar year 2019 
",221,3
"Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?
Automakers can expect to incur R&amp;D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&amp;IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).
For some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). 
This question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?
If one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
If the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government 
",91,3
"Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.
As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.
This question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.
If the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.
",136,3
"When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/","Metaculus","[]","All political parties eventually come to an end.
Most U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)
For as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. 
But this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): 
Democrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.
From almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. 
However, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece
For how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:
--- 
One of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or
--- 
Either there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or
--- 
A US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.
Note that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.
",137,3
"Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called ""Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration"" or MEND was needed.
In June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.
Instead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. 
All ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as ""Marked"" or ""significant"" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.
So far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.
Will MEND be independently replicated by 2025?
This question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.
",197,3
"Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [""Vulcan"" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:
Maybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.
This taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.
We'll play along, and ask:
By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that ""Vulcan"" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? 
For positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and ""National Security"" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.
In case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.
",190,3
"Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.
This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.
",205,3
"How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)
Over the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. 
This question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?
",81,3
"When will space mining be profitable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/","Metaculus","[]","There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.
This being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.
When will a space mining company report a profit?
---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). 
---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. 
---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. 
---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. 
",84,3
"Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.
When will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:
In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.
In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: ""Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now."" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still ""several years from finishing"" the volume.
The question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.
If the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.
",94,3
"If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/","Metaculus","[]","Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,
--- 
A wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.
--- 
The government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.
Cryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.
After 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. 
For the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.
If it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be ""signed up"" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America ""signed up for cryonics.""
If cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",57,3
"Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.
Once the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.
The deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement ""cannot be approved as it stands.
Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?
Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.
",33,3
"Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. 
In the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.
The parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled ""Europe's last dictatorship"" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.
Elections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as ""not free"" by Freedom House, and as ""repressed"" in the Index of Economic Freedom.
In recent years, particularly since [Russia made military incursions into Ukraine in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [annexed Crimea,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) a number ([1, ](https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/07/how-russia-could-test-nato-warns-former-us-army-europe-commander/149530/)[2, ](https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/18/is-russia-practicing-a-dry-run-for-an-invasion-of-belarus/)[3, ](https://jamestown.org/program/belarus-receives-alarming-signals-from-both-east-and-west/)[4, ](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ready-putins-invasion-belarus-russian-forces-are-gathering-664225)[5](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/19/fears-grow-russian-military-drills-in-belarus-are-moscows-next-crimea.html)) of observers have raised the possibility that Russia may in the near future invade or annex Belarus.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?
This question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.
",380,3
"How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/","Metaculus","[]","For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.
Question: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?
Resolution details:
---Only humans in the observable universe count. 
---""Humans"" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. 
",143,3
"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","[]","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),
By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.
To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]
Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”
When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.
",45,3
"Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. 
Gabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. 
Given the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.
Will Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? 
Question resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.
",95,3
"How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).
How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?
This question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.
",49,3
"If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or ""Webb"") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. 
One of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).
Development began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.
[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)
If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?
The question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.
Important: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.
The question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.
The question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.
",174,3
"What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.
This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.
Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). 
What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.
In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.
The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.
In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.
",53,3
"Are we in a simulated reality? Part II","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential ""modes"" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). 
Of the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.
ACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or ""uploading"") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) 
Both modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)
As a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:
By the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?
By implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).
Note that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.
",451,3
"Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. 
In the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.
The anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the ""low fat is healthy"" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).
Nearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).
To that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.
In the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: ""From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.""
In Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.
And in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: 
Berkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. 
And then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):
Almost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found
Whether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.
But will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?
",106,3
"What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .
In the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.
Naive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.
The best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.
In 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?
",109,3
"When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. 
A variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. 
During solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.
When will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.
",57,3
"When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/","Metaculus","[]","From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),
Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]
From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.
A prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,
--- 
Currently considered dead according to credible media
--- 
Has an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone
When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?
This question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.
",19,3
"Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: ""Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.""
The [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:
Logic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. 
And an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).
On the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: ""Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.""
So are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the ""deployed"": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)
",174,3
"How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/","Metaculus","[]","At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: 
Governments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.
The annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.
According to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:
---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) 
---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) 
---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) 
How much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?
Resolution
This question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are &lt;25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.
Data
World Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.
",105,3
"When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/","Metaculus","[]","Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).
As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.
There is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). 
When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??
Resolution
This resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.
For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: 
1-- 
techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and
2-- 
at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.
Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.
",90,3
"Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted ""[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)"".
There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:
We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”
However, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a ""[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)"" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.
Resolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.
In the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.
For the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.
---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 
---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes 
---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 
---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 
---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 
---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 
---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 
---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 
---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 
---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 
---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 
",76,3
"When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/","Metaculus","[]","In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.
This question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).
",37,3
"Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5112/will-uber-and-lyft-both-be-operating-in-california-on-june-1st-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From the [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53853708),
Uber and Lyft have been granted a reprieve in a row over drivers' employment rights in California after a court granted an emergency injunction.
The ride-hailing firms had threatened to suspend operations over an earlier ruling that they must classify drivers as employees, not contractors. But the reprieve allows them to continue operating while the court considers their case for appeal.
The court's decision came just hours before Lyft was due to halt rides. The court has ordered Uber and Lyft to both submit their plans for hiring employees by early September, and oral arguments in the case are set for mid-October. Lyft was due to stop its services in California at 23:59 local time on Thursday (06:59 GMT on Friday). [...]
[Uber and Lyft] have always argued their drivers are self-employed contractors.
But a California law that came into effect earlier this year, known as AB5, extended employee classification to workers in the ""gig economy"". The judge's ruling that the law applied to both Uber and Lyft means the firms need to provide drivers with extra benefits, such as unemployment protection.
Both companies filed an appeal to the judgement - and asked for a stay on its enforcement while the courts dealt with the appeal. Unless the stay was granted, both companies had 10 days to undertake what they saw as a significant overhaul of their business in California.
They both warned that they could be forced to pull services from the state at the end of the day on Thursday. [...]
There is a potential way out for the ride-sharing firms in the coming months.
A ballot that will be put to vote in November, at the same time as the US presidential election, would grant Uber and Lyft an exemption from the law. It is known as proposition 22. ""Your voice can help,"" Lyft wrote in its blog post about suspending services.
""Prop 22, proposes the necessary changes to give drivers benefits and flexibility, while maintaining the rideshare model that helps you get where you need to go,"" it said.
This question resolves positively if both Uber and Lyft are operating in California on June 1st 2021. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
For the sake of this question, ""operating in California"" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides.
Determination is made via credible media reports.
",95,3
"Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.
[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).
Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?
Question resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.
",77,3
"By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.
The most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).
Psychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.
A high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. 
A high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). 
Because of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.
Before 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?
This mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.
Furthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.
The final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).
Finally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.
This resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, 
--- 
30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or
--- 
100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or
--- 
200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.
",209,3
"When will the first human head transplant occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/","Metaculus","[]","Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.
Much more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.
Recently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.
The body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).
When will will a human head transplant operation be performed
Resolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.
",28,3
"What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/","Metaculus","[]","As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). 
These organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.
What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
If no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.
If only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
Otherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.
""Active"" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.
""Revival"" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. 
",31,3
"Will Catalonia become an independent state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.
[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.
With talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.
This question asks: 
Will Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? 
Question resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.
Resolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.
",408,3
"Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).
According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&amp;state$time$value=2006&amp;delay:121.71612903225821;&amp;entities$;&amp;marker$select@;&amp;opacitySelectDim:0.3&amp;axis_x$use=indicator&amp;which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&amp;scaleType=log&amp;zoomedMin=282&amp;zoomedMax=119849&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;axis_y$use=indicator&amp;which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&amp;scaleType=linear&amp;zoomedMin=0&amp;zoomedMax=93&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;size$use=indicator&amp;which=population_total&amp;extent@:0.022083333333333333&amp;:0.4083333333333333;&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;color$use=property&amp;which=world_6region;;;&amp;ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
Will we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?
This question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.
",236,3
"Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.
In 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.
One line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN
We believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.""
But maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): 
The size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”
If “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).
Please note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!
Will someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?
",118,3
"Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:
1--Emma 
2--Olivia 
3--Ava 
4--Isabella 
5--Sophia 
6--Amelia 
7--Mia 
8--Charlotte 
9--Harper 
10-Mila 
The most popular baby names for boys are:
1--Liam 
2--Noah 
3--Logan 
4--Oliver 
5--Mason 
6--Lucas 
7--Ethan 
8--Elijah 
9--Aiden 
10-James 
If history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. 
Will any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?
For the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.
",78,3
"While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/","Metaculus","[]","The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.
Alcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):
Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.
So, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.
[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).
The Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.
What will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?
This counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. 
""Available"" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.
""Revival"" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.
If nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
",30,3
"How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/","Metaculus","[]","The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.
How many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.
",58,3
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. 
The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. 
",140,3
"Will KIC 9832227 go ""red nova"" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).
The ""Boom Star"" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):
will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.
Molner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.
Will this bold prediction come to pass? 
Result is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an ""red nova"" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)
(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.
",171,3
"When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/","Metaculus","[]","Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.
In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?
When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?
The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.
An [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.
",137,3
"Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). 
Currently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)
Will the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.
Question resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.
",76,3
"Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&amp;singleton=true&amp;cruz_id=rmont), UCSC
The motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is ""bounded"" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies ""escapes to infinity''. 
Density Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.
In section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_(mathematician)) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it ""The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems"". He asserted that Newton ""certainly believed"" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)
Like many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, ""everything that can happen, will happen"". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every ""good periodic"" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of ""holes"" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can ""wander"" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. 
Will the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? 
Resolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.
",141,3
"When will any country stop using cash currency?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/","Metaculus","[]","While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. 
Electronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).
But there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.
The currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&amp;qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.
When will the world see the first cashless society?
Resolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.
",151,3
"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.
Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.
As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.
How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?
This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.
The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.
If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. 
",78,3
"Robocup Challenge","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a ""grand challenge"" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:
By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. 
On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.
Will the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? 
Positive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.
",302,3
"When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/","Metaculus","[]","In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.
The [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.
As of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).
This question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?
For the purposes of this question:
--- 
Published studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.
--- 
Whole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.
--- 
African American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as ""African"" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.
--- 
The question will resolve as &gt;2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.
",63,3
"Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.
In addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).
Or maybe not.
Europa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.
Meanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!
What's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)
",352,3
"When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/","Metaculus","[]","The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. 
But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:
When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?
Will resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.
",119,3
"Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): 
A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.
It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.
Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.
",38,3
"What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. 
[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. 
What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?
Resolution
This question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.
Credible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.
The following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.
PBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.
A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
The question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.
",130,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",188,3
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
Running this query for previous years gives:
---779 for the calendar year 2017 
---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 
",163,3
"How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/","Metaculus","[]","According to [STAT](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/), early results from an AstraZeneca trial showed 70% efficacy. But that average hid a discrepancy:
Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.
This half dose-full dose regimen was [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q), in a non-random fashion, therefore violating the randomization assumption of an RCT.
Because of this failure in study design, the [CEO of AstraZeneca told Bloomberg News](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/astra-likely-to-run-fresh-global-covid-vaccine-trial-ceo-says) that the company wants to run ""an additional global trial"" to ""confirm the 90% efficacy rate that the shot showed in a portion of an existing trial"".
[According to the WHO](https://www.who.int/influenza_vaccines_plan/resources/Session4_VEfficacy_VEffectiveness.PDF), vaccine efficacy is defined as:
% reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions (eg RCT)
How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZeneca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?
This question resolves after a reliable media report of the final study results of a 2nd RCT of the AstraZeneca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. It resolves based on the effectiveness reported for the most effective treatment arm.
This question closes retroactively 24hrs prior to the first interim results being reported. If no interim results are reported, this question closes 24hrs prior to when the final results are reported.
If no RCT is conducted or the final results of an RCT are not reported by the resolve date of this question, it resolves ambiguous.
If multiple RCTs are conducted, this question resolves based on the one for which the first reliable media report of the final study results. 
",169,3
"When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/","Metaculus","[]","It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch ""Manhattan project"" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. 
A [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the ""lead up"" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be ""on the runway""?
As an assessment of that question, we ask here:
When will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? 
We'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:
1-- 
It has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and
2-- 
It is constituted so as to generate a single ""flagship"" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and
3-- 
There is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.


Some fine print:
--- 
Question will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.
--- 
The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&amp;D funding program distributed across many groups.
--- 
Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. 
--- 
Note that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)
--- 
There is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.
--- 
Resolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.
--- 
In the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.
",130,3
"Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1556/will-there-be-extraordinary-or-premature-federal-elections-held-in-germany-before-their-next-election-cycle/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, [Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46016377).
The latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.
Her current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:
---[Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer](https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-ally-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-urges-new-era-in-german-politics/a-46196445), the unofficial favourite, 
---[Friedrich Merz](https://www.dw.com/en/friedrich-merz-makes-pitch-to-lead-cdu-after-angela-merkel/a-46108295), who had left politics a decade ago, and 
---[Jens Spahn](https://www.jens-spahn.de/neustart_fuer_die_cdu), the current Minister of Health. 
There are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.
Thus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?
Resolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.
",96,3
"Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called ""Spanish Flu."" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.
Also unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.
So here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?
Will there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? 
",261,3
"Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.
[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.
[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.
SpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).
Musk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&amp;ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.
Musk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be ""possibly in two or three years,""](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... ""Just not on impact.""](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)
As of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.
Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?
This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.
This question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.
UTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. 
",115,3
"When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/","Metaculus","[]","In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.
His statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that ""It's always 'the end of the year.'""
The company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the ""feather"" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.
When will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?
This question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.
",93,3
"When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/","Metaculus","[]","Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.
Poker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. 
An example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.
And so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?

Definition of “significant competition”:
----------------------------------------

A Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:
---more than 300 hands are played 
---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) 
---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) 
---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. 
There are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:
1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. 
2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. 

Clarifications and fine print:
------------------------------

---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. 
---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. 
---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. 
--- 
The rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: 
------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. 
------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. 
------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. 
",169,3
"How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.
GiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.
How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
If GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.
If GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.
For this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), ""headline money moved"" rather than ""best guess of total money directed to charities"").
",21,3
"When will the next interstellar object be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/","Metaculus","[]","The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.
Although only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.
When will the next interstellar object be discovered?
This question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [""I"" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available ""[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)"" data, this question resolves when the formal ""interstellar"" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as ""&gt;12/31/30.""
",46,3
"What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. 
The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).
In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). 
Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:
What will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?
For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.
",40,3
"Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&amp;qid=1550223728&amp;s=gateway&amp;sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.
Question: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?
Resolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.
",146,3
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3432/philpapers-survey-mini-series-biological-ness-of-race/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: 
The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on race being biological, as opposed to being social or unreal?
See [here for a discussion](https://philpeople.org/feed_items/49518082) of this question by Chalmers.
Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on race being biological. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",80,3
"Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). 
If the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.
",25,3
"How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

Between 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). 
Movements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.
How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
",52,3
"Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. 
22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.
37 countries came out with support:
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.
A great many more have remained neutral.
The question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?
Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?
Resolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.
The author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define ""formal support"" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.
As a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. 
",85,3
"When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/","Metaculus","[]","Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.
To find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?
For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.
Related question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)
",97,3
"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.
In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.
Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?
Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.
",369,3
"Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)
The definition of a ""pandemic"" varies among sources; here we will define a ""significant pandemic"" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:
Will there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?
Resolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)
",143,3
"What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5774/net-bids-in-fcc-auction-107/","Metaculus","[]","The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band. 
Some significant past auctions were ""Auction 73: 700 MHz Band"" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and ""Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz"" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. ""Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service"" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.
Note that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).
What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?
Resolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.
",117,3
"What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/","Metaculus","[]","Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). 
Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:
---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), 
---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), 
---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), 
---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). 
According to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.
What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?
Resolution
This question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.
Data
[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",117,3
"Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).
Robert D Atkinson argued,
Increasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the ""robots are killing our jobs"" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.
Alberto Forchielli countered,
The United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.
Will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??
If Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
",29,3
"Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.
However, we cannot rest easy.
As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:
Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. 
A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.
How long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?
Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? 
For these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.
",227,3
"Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not ""steak or cream pies or hot fudge"", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.
In the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. 
The idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:
""It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.""
That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of ""self-resolving"" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:
--- 
If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is &gt; 95% or &lt; 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.
--- 
Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
edited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from ""typical person"" to ""some identified and significant population of people.""
",108,3
"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. 
This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
",228,3
"Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. 
Consider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): 
Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. 
How do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).
Writing in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):
I hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.
We have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.
But the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).
As Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): 
In theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).
Ahh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: 
Before the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? 
The positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)
",226,3
"How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/","Metaculus","[]","The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).
The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.
How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?
This question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.
",61,3
"Will Iowa host another ""first in the nation"" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted ""first in the nation"" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.
On 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead"" on MSNBC.
Will this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?
This question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is ""first in the nation"".
For the purposes of this question, a ""caucus"" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [""walking subcaucus"" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).
A ""first in the nation primary event"" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the ""first in the nation primary event"".
The ""US Democratic primary election"" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).
",99,3
"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/","Metaculus","[]","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.
When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?
This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:
Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior.
Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.
[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
",36,3
"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:
When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? 
For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). 
Resolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.
",323,3
"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus","[]","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.
The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.
When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.
",69,3
"Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.
Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?
Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.
Our comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.
",179,3
"When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/","Metaculus","[]","In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. 
When will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? 
Autopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be ""at fault"" or not (as this may ambiguous.)
Note: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.
",246,3
"What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. 
However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.
[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). 
Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=1949&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.
What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?
Resolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.
",27,3
"Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.
The Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).
Therefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?
This question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.
",60,3
"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/","Metaculus","[]","In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.
The question is:
When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?
The date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. 
For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.
",145,3
"Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. 
There is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.
This, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).
Will there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? 
The answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.
",196,3
"Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).
It is asked:
Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?
Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.
<li>If the community prediction at the time of closing is &gt; 80%, then the questions resolves positive.</li> <li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is &lt; 20%, then the questions resolves negative.</li> <li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. </li> 
To help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.
",193,3
"Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):
Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.
He plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):
“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”
Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.
Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.
A [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:
Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”
To offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):
No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.
no, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.
I will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.
We will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?
If EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.
",48,3
"What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/","Metaculus","[]","Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
--- 
The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).
--- 
Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.
This question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.
Define the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.
We divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .
What will be this depression's relative severity ?
",145,3
"When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:
---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) 
---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) 
---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) 
---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) 
For a total of 411.
However, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).
To determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?
Resolution details:
--- 
This question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.
--- 
This question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.
--- 
This question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.
--- 
If any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.
",59,3
"Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. 
One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?
Whether an event is a ""scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances"" will be resolved per the [""I know it when I see it""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
Edit 2020-01-03: Replaced ""In the case of disagreement among Metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution"" with ""In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution"". 
",70,3
"When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. 
Heavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.
Ununennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.
When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?
Resolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
For example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).
",37,3
"What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.
",114,3
"What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

In 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.
Many electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. 
[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): 
While most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.

Question
========

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? 

Resolution
==========

This question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.

Related Questions
=================

---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) 
---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) 
",51,3
"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. 
We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).
However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under <a>$40/barrel</a> in early September 2020. 
The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”
What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.
",228,3
"Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared ""commercially extinct"", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.
Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.
Hope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.
Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?
A few fine points:
---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. 
---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). 
---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. 
---""Available"" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. 
",73,3
"What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/","Metaculus","[]","What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?
This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).
If Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.
Note that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).
This is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).
",102,3
"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life
longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.
(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)
A ""therapy"" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.
Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.
If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.
The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.
",85,3
"What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. 
As of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&amp;text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).
In May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:
Commercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. 
According to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. 
[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.
What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?

Resolution Criteria
===================

This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends &amp; Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).
",38,3
"Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. 
If the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. 
The consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.
Will such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? 
This question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed ""infected"" by one or more confirmed synthetic ""biological weapon""s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.
",153,3
"If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:
--- 
Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.
--- 
Build a stronger, more resilient nation.
--- 
Rally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change
--- 
Stand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.
--- 
Fulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.
In order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:
If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?
This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).
Resolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.
This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).
",151,3
"When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus","[]","The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):
For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.
In 2015, ""restaurant"" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners ""food for thought"" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using ""in vitro"" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?
When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence ""pop-up"" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. 
If the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
Prices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
",67,3
"Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.
From [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),
There is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should ""choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
Some, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a ""healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president."" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. 
At one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), ""I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.""
This question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?
Resolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.
",571,3
"When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/","Metaculus","[]","The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.
MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.
These thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. 
MICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. 
[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.
Despite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)
Haiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)
This question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?
Resolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.
The question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.
",105,3
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. 
The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. 
",177,3
"Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.
This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:
--- 
Deliberate nuclear attack.
--- 
Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)
--- 
Accidental detonation of a weapon.
--- 
Nuclear terrorism.
For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.
See our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) 
",181,3
"When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Nuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).
On the other hand, ""fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation"" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).

Definition
==========

""The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.
The energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.""
(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))

Resolution criteria
===================

If a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.

Related questions
=================

---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q &gt;= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) 
---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) 
",44,3
"Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.
Yet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain ""magic numbers"" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.
It is asked:
Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? 
In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.
",199,3
"If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:
---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which
------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, 
------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, 
------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. 
---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. 
It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.
If the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?
This resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.
This question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.
See also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)
",71,3
"When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/","Metaculus","[]","Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). 
Recently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.
When will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?
In order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:
1-- 
Unconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. ""all citizens over the age of 18""). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).
2-- 
Substantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.
3-- 
Guaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. 
4-- 
Ongoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.
Additional details: 
--- 
If a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. 
--- 
""Country"" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A ""virtual nation"" or territory would not count.
--- 
The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.
--- 
The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.
",111,3
"Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/","Metaculus","[]","This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:
--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. 
--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). 
--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. 
--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. 
In this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.
Predictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.
Most estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:
--- 
One must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.
--- 
Also there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.
--- 
We may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",233,3
"When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/","Metaculus","[]","California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. 
These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. 
There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.
For people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. 
If there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.
When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?
Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.
If these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.
",25,3
"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus","[]","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.
The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
",199,3
"When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/","Metaculus","[]","Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.
Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)).
When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?
Positive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.
1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, 
2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, 
3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, 
4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, 
5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, 
6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, 
as reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.
Historical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).
",126,3
"Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.
This has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. 
This question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.
Here are the top 5 ISPs for this question:
1-- 
Comcast
2-- 
Charter
3-- 
AT&amp;T
4-- 
Verizon
5-- 
Century Link
(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)
",135,3
"Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:
--- 
[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)
--- 
[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)
--- 
[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)
--- 
[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)
--- 
[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)
--- 
[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and 
--- 
[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)
A correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.
This question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.
",236,3
"When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/","Metaculus","[]","Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. 
[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. 
When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: 
1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). 
2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. 
*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:
1-- 
Published in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning
2-- 
Cites Niven and Kao
3-- 
Pre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (&lt;=60% accuracy for a binary task, &lt;=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)
If the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.
",70,3
"When will the VIX index climb above 50?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/","Metaculus","[]","The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.
It represents the expected range of the S&amp;P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of &lt;20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.
Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).
The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.
Companion question:
---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) 
",102,3
"Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).
According to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:
In the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.
Using the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. 
For reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).
Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
Resolution
This resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.
For the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).
Moreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.
",74,3
"Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.
Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. 
A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.
",135,3
"What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/","Metaculus","[]","In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:
while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.
Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. 
What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?
Resolution
This question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.
If no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.
",87,3
"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.
Like most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?
Some specifics:
---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). 
---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. 
---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. 
---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. 
---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). 
---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. 
",402,3
"What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.
Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).
On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? 
This question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.
Resolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.
",69,3
"When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/","Metaculus","[]","News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.
With much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).
Sometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:
When will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?
We want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.
",119,3
"What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2572/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-able-to-cover-an-unexpected-400-expense-without-selling-something-or-borrowing-money-in-2020/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the [Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.
Since its first edition in 2013, the SHED has [included a question about whether or not the survey participant could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2017-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm)
In 2013, only 50% of survey participants said that they could do so. (See Figure 11 in the link above.) That number has slowly but steadily improved over time. In 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available as of January 16 2019, 59% of survey participants said they could do so.
This question asks: In the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted for the year 2020, what percentage of Americans will say that they could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money?
In the event that this survey is renamed or discontinued but the same question is asked by another survey conducted by either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury, this question should remain active. If no such survey is conducted for the year 2020, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
In the event that the dollar value in question is changed by more than 5% in real terms (linked to 2019 dollars), this question shall resolve ambiguously.
",118,3
"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.
In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?
Resolution
For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
",219,3
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?
This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on June 14, 2021, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. 
",203,3
"Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. 
There is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. 
Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
Anything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. 
This question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.
*""Practically demonstrated"" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.
",64,3
"When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/","Metaculus","[]","Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to ""phone home"" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).
How we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):
The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.
Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:
The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.
What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):
About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants
In any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? 
Question will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.
",115,3
"Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)
a very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]
Because of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.
One such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]
The success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”
While hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.
So far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).
This question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? 
Here the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:
--- 
They received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.
--- 
Half of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. 
--- 
They reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.
",38,3
"Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. 
The US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).
The decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to ""ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing."" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.
More recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
=========================================================

This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.
",48,3
"Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.
So far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.
Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?
For the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).
Resolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.
",128,3
"Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.
There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate ""Voynichese"" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).
This question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. 
It resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.
",116,3
"When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/","Metaculus","[]","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
Tesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. ""I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year"" -Elon Musk in April 2019.
The question asks:
When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:
1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. 
2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. 
3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. 
Use of geo-fencing is allowed.
Similar questions:
---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) 
---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) 
---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. 
---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). 
---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. 
---The client must pay for the trip. 
---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. 
---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. 
",162,3
"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. 
If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
If Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
*As judged by a metaculus admin.
",17,3
"When will we have a new Pope?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/","Metaculus","[]","When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).
This question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.
If the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as &gt;2036-12-17.
",92,3
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will  United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2005 at 68.31%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.
What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?
The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2021 TOP500 list. 
You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",191,3
"How many communist states will there be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.
Simultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).
The question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?
For the purposes of this question, ""communist state"" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.
This question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.
",139,3
"Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:
Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] 
However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?
--- 
Resolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.
--- 
If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively
--- 
If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively
",135,3
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will  United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.
What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?
The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. 
You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. 
",161,3
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.
Background
The many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.
In the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?
Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents that ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the answer ""many-worlds"" on the ""Quantum mechanics"" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",78,3
"If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/","Metaculus","[]","The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.
Given that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?
Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.
",150,3
"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) 
[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&amp;IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)
The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)
This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?
Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.
",387,3
"Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the quest for ""strong"" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is ""brain emulation,"" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. 
In an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such ""Ems"" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)
There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&amp;_r=1&amp;mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&amp;gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&amp;gwt=pay&amp;assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)
To gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of ""Ems"" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:
Will the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? 
Resolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.
(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)
",423,3
"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/","Metaculus","[]","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?
If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.
",71,3
"When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/","Metaculus","[]","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.
Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:
When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
This question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).
Currently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.
Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.
Similar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)
",82,3
"What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.
As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.
Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:
---2008: $312 
---2009: $138 
---2010: $284 
---2011: $336 
---2012: $375 
---2013: $434 
---2014 $544 
---2015 $512 
---2016 $610 
---2017 $629 
---2018 $730 
---2019 $678 
All in billions of 2019 US$.
What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?

Resolution
==========

This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).
",30,3
"When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/","Metaculus","[]","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
The question asks:
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:
1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. 
2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. 
3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. 
The rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.
Similar questions:
---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) 
---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) 
---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. 
---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). 
---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. 
---The client must pay for the trip. 
---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. 
---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. 
",104,3
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). 
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. 
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?
This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
Details of the search query
For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).
The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
Running this query for previous years gives:
---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 
---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 
---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 
",86,3
"Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a ""phantom genre.""
The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.
Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? 
Resolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.
(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).
-------- EN ESPAÑOL:
España tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».
El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.
¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?
La respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.
(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).
",58,3
"When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/","Metaculus","[]","In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).
When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?
Resolution
Types 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).
",94,3
"How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/","Metaculus","[]","Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):
In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.
In this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?
The resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.
The question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.
For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)
Related questions:
---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) 
---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) 
---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) 
---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) 
---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) 
",135,3
"When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/","Metaculus","[]","Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.
It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).
The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].
As of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.
When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.
Reports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.
",84,3
"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.
Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.
The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.
So we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?
Definitions of success:
--- 
There is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.
--- 
This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.
--- 
At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.
",90,3
"When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/","Metaculus","[]","[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) 
[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)
When will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?
Resolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.
",121,3
"Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.
[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.
This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
",55,3
"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.
Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.
Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.
On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.
Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. 
Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. 
",55,3
"Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.
Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).
If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.
If the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.
In case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:
1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, 
2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and 
3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. 
If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. 
",46,3
"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. 
On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.
The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.
Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?
This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.
Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).
---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. 
---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. 
---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. 
",62,3
"How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).
Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.
How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
Resolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.
",47,3
"When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),
The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.
To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. 
--- 
This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.
--- 
Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. 
The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:
--- 
Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.
--- 
Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
--- 
No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV
--- 
The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as &gt;Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.
",56,3
"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. 
In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).
However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).
When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.
",60,3
"What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),
The marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.
The best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.
These two Metaculus questions are relevant:
[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)
[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)
Also see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)
This question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?
",35,3
"When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/","Metaculus","[]","The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.
Since that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most ""veteran"" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.
When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?
---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. 
---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. 
---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. 
",155,3
"Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?
The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. 
Resolution details:
--- 
The procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)
------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union 
--- 
Positive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession
------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution 
",95,3
"What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.
In March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).
What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
",174,3
"How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/","Metaculus","[]","From [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/02/03/student-loan-debt-statistics/?sh=2341eaad281f),
There are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.
From [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-may-come-with-tax-bomb-heres-what-you-should-know.html),
Student loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.
Biden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.
Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.
The US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public Service Loan Forgiveness](https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service) program. The [most recent data](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data) shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.
How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?
This question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled ""Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application"" and ""Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*"".
",116,3
"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus","[]","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.
What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?
This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.
",33,3
"Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.
This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
* ""military personnel"" here includes the Coast Guard.
""conscription"" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.
",142,3
"At what point will at least ten technologies listed on ""The Rejuvenation Roadmap"" be released to the public?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/","Metaculus","[]","The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which
aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.
As of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.
If ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.
This question resolves ambiguously if:
---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). 
---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. 
---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. 
",73,3
"What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus","[]","Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).
Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).
What is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
This question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. 
A single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.
In case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.
This question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.
",70,3
"What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/","Metaculus","[]","On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. 
From [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):
Chandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. 
But for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? 
Question resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.
",61,3
"When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/","Metaculus","[]","For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. 
This question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?
For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and ""self"") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.
",182,3
"Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),
This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning
Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,
It now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”
It’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.
It’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).
Assume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.
Metaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:
Was the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?
Respondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:
--- 
The complete system was based on DL
--- 
Most of system was based on DL
--- 
At least a significant portion of the system was based on DL
--- 
Only a minor portion of the system was based on DL
--- 
No portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL
--- 
I don't know
Then the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond ""I don't know"" respond as follows:
--- 
The complete system was based on DL
--- 
Most of system was based on DL
The question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond ""I don't know"".
",90,3
"How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[]","Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.
During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).
This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?
How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?
The question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).
Wars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 
Terrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.
Armed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.
",59,3
"When will the Woke index in US elite media top?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/","Metaculus","[]","[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.
Resolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?
---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). 
---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. 
---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) 
",26,3
"When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/","Metaculus","[]","Background
[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.
An [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).
Resolution
This question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. 
The admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.
The AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.
",77,3
"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[]","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).
See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,
1-- 
The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.
2-- 
The U.S. Geological Survey.
3-- 
The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.
4-- 
A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.
",106,3
"Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as ""Satoshi Nakamoto"", the maverick who developed bitcoin.
Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):
ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. 
Will we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.
Question resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)
",470,3
"Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. 
With thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).
ITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. 
The project aims to:
--- 
Momentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).
--- 
Produce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)
Currently, it aims to produce its first [""small star"" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).
By the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?
For the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).
",149,3
"When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/","Metaculus","[]","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).
When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?
---Countries with 1M population size only. 
---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. 
---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). 
---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as &gt;. 
",54,3
"When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/","Metaculus","[]","The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).
However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).
Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&amp;t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.
This question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?
This question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.
The resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.
This question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.
""Humanity"" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.
Related Questions:
---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) 
",96,3
"Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).
Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?
The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.
The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.
",45,3
"Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) 
There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. 
Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. 
Some nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States ""SPACE Act of 2015,"" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.
On 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. 
According to the article § 51303 of the law: ""A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States."" 
In February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to ""jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space"" by, among other things, creating a ""legal framework"" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would ""invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg."" In 2017, it became the ""first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space"", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.
[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)
This question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?
Resolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. 
Resources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.
",239,3
"Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.
From the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.
China has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).
Will China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?
This question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).
For the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).
Previously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:
This question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. 
",433,3
"Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.
We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states ""judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour""; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.
Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.
An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. 
",71,3
"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. 
The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. 
This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?
The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).
Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.
",148,3
"Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !
For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .
Similar questions:
---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) 
---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) 
",183,3
"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. 
The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:
“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”
Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. 
“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. ""I think this is going to be a trend,"" he says.”
How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
",26,3
"Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.
The decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.
In the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.
This question asks:
Will Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. 
Since there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.
A positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).
",91,3
"If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)
On January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.
If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?
Resolution:
---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) 
---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. 
---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. 
The report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).
Other possible world:
---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) 
See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
",59,3
"Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [""luminous red nova""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.
Greg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)
Given that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.
Right ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.
If that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.
So, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? 
Resolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)
",61,3
"How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.
Talkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.
Out of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.

Question
========

How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?

Resolution
==========

Here ""Schedule I drugs"" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).
For the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).
Situations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated &lt;1% of cases in which such possession is detected.
""Country"" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.
",35,3
"Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[]","[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).
Amongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:
1-- 
[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. 
2-- 
[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.
3-- 
[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.
4-- 
[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.
5-- 
[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.
Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.
In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:
--- 
ImageNet: 99
--- 
STL-10: 24
--- 
CIFAR-10: 20
--- 
CIFAR-100: 18
--- 
MNIST: 10
Hence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.
The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.
Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. 
",23,3
"By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),
Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal ""wiring diagram"") completed.
In 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to ""build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.""
More generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) ""the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems"" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.
Unfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?
Assume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,
Has recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term ""whole brain emulation"" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear ""Yes"", ""No"" or ""Other"" in your reply.
The question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as ""whole brain emulation.""
This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear ""Yes"" (or ""yes"" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.
The group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:
1-- 
In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category ""Neuronscience"".
2-- 
For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)
3-- 
Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.
(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)
",135,3
"What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),
Gross domestic spending on R&amp;D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&amp;D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&amp;D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&amp;D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP
In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&amp;D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&amp;D. What will that number be in 2030?
What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&amp;D in 2030?
This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&amp;D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.
",30,3
"How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.
For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).
How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
Estimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
The question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.
The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)
",83,3
"How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/","Metaculus","[]","Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&amp;eID=dam_frontend_push&amp;docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. 
Europe is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&amp;eID=dam_frontend_push&amp;docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&amp;eID=dam_frontend_push&amp;docID=3390).
Growth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. 
Projections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.
How much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?
The definitive source for question resolution will be the annual ""[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)"" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.
",196,3
"Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).
We don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.
This question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.
If any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.
",111,3
"Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, ""one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.""
Regrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.
It is asked:Will a living human set their foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC?
Resolution is by credible media report. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.
Closing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.
",426,3
"Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)
As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.
It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?
To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.
",90,3
"Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).
Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?
Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.
",75,3
"Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.
[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.
In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.
Countries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. 
How many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?
This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.
",108,3
"How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4711/how-many-total-games-will-be-played-in-the-nfls-2020-2021-regular-season/","Metaculus","[]","The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant uncertainty about the upcoming [National Football League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League) season.
In a typical season, there would be 256 games played -- 16 games played between 32 teams over a 17-week period. As of June 25, the schedule released by the NFL includes all 256 games.
How many total games will be played in 2020-2021 regular season?
Fine print:
--- 
There is no fixed date where the final regular season game must be played by -- we will consider all non-postseason games to be ""regular season"" games, regardless of date.
--- 
If no games have been played by December 31, 2020, [this question will resolve to 0](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4711/how-many-total-games-will-be-played-in-the-nfls-2020-2021-regular-season/#comment-34405).
--- 
Partial games that are suspended mid-game and not resumed/played to completion will not be counted.
--- 
The official source for the number of games played will be [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/schedule/_/year/2019).
",66,3
"When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/","Metaculus","[]","Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).
Overfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).
Several clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).
An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).
When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.
For the purpose of this question, a company is a ""clean fish company"" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms ""clean fish"" or ""clean meat company"" producing ""fish"", where ""clean meat"" may be interchanged with ""cell-based"", ""in vitro"", ""cultivated"", or ""cultured"", and ""fish"" with any particular fish (e.g. ""clean tuna""). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline ""clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering"". 
The article should demonstrate that the term ""clean meat"" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term ""clean meat"" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.
Additionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)
[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)
",129,3
"How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.
How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?
This question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A ""patient"" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).
",90,3
"When will the next Qatari general election be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/","Metaculus","[]","Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.
When will Qatar hold its first legislative election?
If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.
",51,3
"When will the next human being walk on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.
Less than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.
When will the next human being walk on the Moon? 
",321,3
"Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):
In the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.
Among [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):
[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy
Unsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.
Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? 
Resolution is positive if by major media account ""first light"" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.
",124,3
"What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. 
Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. 
A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.
What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?
Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.
",29,3
"Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as ""an existential threat to our community"".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)
[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)
[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)
[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)
Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?
This question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform. 
This question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.
This question resolves negatively otherwise.
",379,3
"What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/","Metaculus","[]","Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).
In the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).
Yet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.
Similarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. 
Advocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).
The [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.
According to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).
What percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?
Resolution
This question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.
For the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. 
Stunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.
In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. 
In case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.
",43,3
"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is ""awareness or sentience of internal or external existence"". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being ""at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives"".
This question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). 
Instead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
Resolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. 
Metaculus team should ask the AI:
1--Are you conscious? 
2--Should the question ""Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?"" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? 
This question will resolve no sooner than the question ""[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)"". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.
",100,3
"Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:
--- 
when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),
--- 
to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),
--- 
or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).
The Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).
Recent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:
Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?
This question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.
This question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.

Related questions
-----------------

---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) 
---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) 
If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.
",54,3
"When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/","Metaculus","[]","The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [""garrison"" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. 
The Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and ""rivers"" and ""seas"" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. 
Unusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of ""rivers of mercury"". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. 
The risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).
When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?
This question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). 
This will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.
",23,3
"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","[]","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. 
Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).
Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.
When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?
Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",36,3
"Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.
Resolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.
",223,3
"When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/","Metaculus","[]","Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&amp;smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).
A commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).
When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?
For the purposes of this question, ""available from a grocery store"" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.
",126,3
"50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a ""deliverable""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_(1)_(%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh)_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.
The Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&amp;t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.
Admittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.
By 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?
",168,3
"When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus","[]","The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):
For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.
In 2015, ""restaurant"" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners ""food for thought"" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using ""in vitro"" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?
When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence ""pop-up"" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. 
If the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
Prices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
",105,3
"Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.
This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.
",287,3
"When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/","Metaculus","[]","As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).
The [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. 
Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?
Resolution details:
---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. 
---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. 
---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. 
---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. 
",210,3
"How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.
This question asks:
How much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?
To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.
If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. 
",49,3
"How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.
Although it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.
Until now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.
How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?
The question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.
If the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.
The question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). 
",47,3
"What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/","Metaculus","[]","The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.
One goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).
Data sources and more information:
---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) 
---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website 
---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) 
---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) 
---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) 
---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) 
---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) 
---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) 
---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) 
---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) 
What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
The percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.
To resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.
9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.
",86,3
"What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)
In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)
An estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.
Per a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:
Percent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)
What will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?
",277,3
"Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.
[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. 
This question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?
Only one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.
",107,3
"What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/","Metaculus","[]","In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.
There remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.
There are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:
What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?
Resolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.
The question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.
",39,3
"What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is ""Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur."" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?
What will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?
This question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",51,3
"When will China legalise same-sex marriage?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/","Metaculus","[]","At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.
According to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):
The Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.
The report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.
The question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?
The question takes ""legalisation"" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.
This question resolves as ""&gt; Jan 1, 2100"" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.
",64,3
"Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:
NASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.
The three companies are:
1--Blue Origin 
2--Dynetics 
3--SpaceX 
This question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?
This question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.
If two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",61,3
"Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. 
Governor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:
“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”
The [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:
“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”
[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. 
However, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. 
This is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.
Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?
Resolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. 
If the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.
",43,3
"What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.
Two questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)
This question asks:
What fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?
To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. 
If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.
For athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. 
",31,3
"How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background
==========

The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. 
The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. 
In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.
How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?

Resolution Criteria
===================

Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
",44,3
"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life
longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?
An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.
For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. 
This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).
Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.
If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.
",77,3
"Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.
[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):
According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.
The question is: can we do this?
Kurzgesagt (a.k.a. ""in a nutshell"") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)
Here are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:
---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. 
---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. 
---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. 
---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. 
---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. 
What do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?
Question resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.
",366,3
"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.
Will the Open Courts Act become law?
This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.
",66,3
"What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), ""the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,"" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is ""an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).""
While the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.
What will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?
",19,3
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
Index
The index is constructed as follows:
---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index 
---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 
The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
This question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.
Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months 
---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 
If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. 
",227,3
"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.
In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.
So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? 
Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.
",585,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). 
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. 
",61,3
"When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/","Metaculus","[]","Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.
When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?
Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.
A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. 
More narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.
The date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.
",64,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The MiniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved for one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Only models trained on MiniImageNet's data qualify—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",314,3
"What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.
As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.
Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:
---2008: $312 
---2009: $138 
---2010: $284 
---2011: $336 
---2012: $375 
---2013: $434 
---2014 $544 
---2015 $512 
---2016 $610 
---2017 $629 
---2018 $730 
---2019 $678 
All in billions of 2019 US$. 

Question
========

What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?

Resolution
==========

This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.
",121,3
"When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/","Metaculus","[]","Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.
There are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?
This question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.
The landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.
Resolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.
",128,3
"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. 
In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:
1-- 
White wins
2-- 
Black wins
3-- 
Forced draw
If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? 
For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if 
--- 
it is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides
--- 
it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw
Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.
For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question
This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.
",145,3
"When will the United States admit a new state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/","Metaculus","[]","[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.
Question: When will the United States admit a new state?
This question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A ""new state"" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.
It resolves as ""&gt; Dec 31, 2050"" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.
",161,3
"Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):
P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.
According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.
In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). 
Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?
Resolution
This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",101,3
"Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.
Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&amp;state$time$value=2006&amp;delay:121.71612903225821;&amp;entities$;&amp;marker$select@;&amp;opacitySelectDim:0.3&amp;axis_x$use=indicator&amp;which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&amp;scaleType=log&amp;zoomedMin=282&amp;zoomedMax=119849&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;axis_y$use=indicator&amp;which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&amp;scaleType=linear&amp;zoomedMin=0&amp;zoomedMax=93&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;size$use=indicator&amp;which=population_total&amp;extent@:0.022083333333333333&amp;:0.4083333333333333;&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;color$use=property&amp;which=world_6region;;;&amp;ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
A [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.
Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
This question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).
",187,3
"Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.
Separately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [""bad debt is not written down""](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.
Note that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.
There was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that ""China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable"". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.
Thus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?
For resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:
1-- 
Already-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.
2-- 
Alternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.
For future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.
This resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).
In order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).
",65,3
"Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/","Metaculus","[]","This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
In this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .
It is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.
It could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. 
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",235,3
"When will The Simpsons air its final episode?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/","Metaculus","[]","The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. 
TV Insider called it ""the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time"" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): 
There’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. 
As [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: 
The Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. 
Bart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.
How long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?
(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)
",165,3
"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/","Metaculus","[]","Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.
When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?
The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.
For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.
",33,3
"Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context
=======

Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):
---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) 
---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) 
---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) 
---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) 
---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) 
The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.
Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).

Question
========

Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?

Resolution
==========

This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.
",76,3
"If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/","Metaculus","[]","Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]
WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]
An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.
In his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.
If Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?
Resolution:
This question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). 
For the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):
Success criterion: ""The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.""
Correct properties: ""Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)""
Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.
This question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.
",111,3
"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/","Metaculus","[]","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.
When will the US-Canada border reopen?
This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.
",403,3
"When will we have micropayments?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/","Metaculus","[]","One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&amp;utm_brand=wired&amp;utm_campaign=wired&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_social-type=owned&amp;utm_source=twitter), asking
Where are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?
and lamenting:
Of course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.
I've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just ""micropayments fail over and over."" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:
When will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?
The question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a ""wallet"" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.
",79,3
"What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. 
SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).
As of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. 
Further, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&amp;IR=T)
SpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)
This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?
In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. 
If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.
",400,3
"How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.
For a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.
How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
Estimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
The question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.
The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)
",102,3
"When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/","Metaculus","[]","[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.
Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.
Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.
In June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)
This question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
This question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. 
In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.
",118,3
"How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&amp;ref=headline&amp;nl_art=7&amp;te=1&amp;nl=upshot&amp;emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.
This could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:
What will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?
Prices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:
--- 
Tallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183
--- 
Amsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186
--- 
Lisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 
Hence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.
Resolution:
---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.
------if only given a range, take the median. 
---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. 
---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. 
",58,3
"Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn.
The proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest.
In order to pass the cut to aid, [an act of parliament is required](https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/uk-aid-cuts-to-be-enshrined-in-law-ministers-concede/), while the large majority held by the Conservative Party makes a defeat unlikely, the discontent surrounding the bill makes it at least possible. There has been some discussion from Effective Altruists about exerting pressure in this direction, see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a5qSgWBLRsicYFRFm/gbp4bn-for-the-global-poor-the-uk-s-0-7) for more.
Will the UK government suceed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?
Resolves positively if, before 2021/04/01, a bill is passed in parliament cutting the amount of international aid provided by the UK from its current level of 0.7% of GNI.
This question will close immediately before the parliamentary vote on any qualifying bill.
If the cut in aid is temporary, with a reversal to 0.7% or greater written in to law, it still counts as a cut for the purposes of resolution. 
",150,3
"When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/","Metaculus","[]","[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.
At the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).
When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?
In order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:
---There must be a ""coverage area"" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. 
---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. 
---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. 
---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. 
---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. 
",229,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.
The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at ""somewhere between one out of three and even"". 
Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. 
Currently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.
Although tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.
Although initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages
[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.
The fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. 
In the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.
If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?
The question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",193,3
"When will programs write programs for us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/","Metaculus","[]","Since the early days of ""machine code"" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand. 
It would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to ""induce"" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a ""Neural Programmer,"" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.
While machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:
How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python? 
As a concrete challenge, we'll ask that in 2 of 5 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the first two sections of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. To avoid making this mostly about language parsing, the plaintext specification can be ""translated"" by a human operator into a plaintext description of lesser length prior to input into the ML system, so that the system functions something like a very high-level programming language. (This still leaves a major challenge of a system that turns the specification into a task for which the neural network can be trained.) 
The existence of such a system will be determined by actual demonstration, OR by agreement by two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists.
",265,3
"Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.
From then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. 
The first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.
Calvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.
Only when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.
Truman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.
Only Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.

Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?

Resolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.
Resolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).
",200,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.
However, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.
One explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a ""Hothouse Earth"" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.
[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. 
One way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. 
However, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.
In an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.
If a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
--- 
The question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. 
--- 
It resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.
--- 
It resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.
--- 
It resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.
--- 
The question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",151,3
"Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). 
Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"".
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?
Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. 
",49,3
"When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/","Metaculus","[]","[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.
[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.
When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?
This question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.
The drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.
Only one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.
If the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated ""metro area"" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.
There may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).
There are no requirements for delivery speed.
The drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the ""last mile""), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.
If there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. 
",61,3
"When will a technology replace screens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/","Metaculus","[]","In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).
What do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. 
Screens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). 
But nothing lasts forever.
This question asks, 
""When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?""
For the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as ""a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface"".
If a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. 
For example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.
If a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.
The question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for ""non-screen"" displays is greater than the sales for ""screen"" technology.
The question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.
Because the word ""screen"" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.
If at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.
Current examples of ""screens"":
1--Phones 
2--Televisions 
3--Laptops/Tablets 
4--PC Monitors 
5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. 
Examples of technologies that could be described to ""primarily convey visual information"":
---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen 
---AR ""smart"" glasses 
---Smart contact lenses 
---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. 
---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) 
---3d holographic displays 
---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) 
Non-examples (improved screen):
---Curved TVs 
---Folding Phones 
---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) 
---[""Roll-up"" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) 
---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) 
Non-examples (not a visual display technology):
---Wireless earbuds 
---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver 
---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas 
",105,3
"When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/","Metaculus","[]","Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.
The country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.
When, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?
For this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as ""&gt;2050"". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.
The question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.
In the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.
",86,3
"How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred  worldwide, before 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?
Resolution details:
In the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.
",798,3
"When will there be a mile-high building?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/","Metaculus","[]","The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)
But guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.
Among them:
--- 
The Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 
--- 
In 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.
But when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? 
The Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): 
At that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. ""The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,"" the report explains. 
It seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?
",205,3
"How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus","[]","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).
Plant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.
How much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.
In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.
The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.
In case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.
",91,3
"Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. 
[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)
In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)
However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.
This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?
This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.
If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
",183,3
"Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.
---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. 
---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. 
---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). 
---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). 
However, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! 
We need backup, apparently!
Well, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) ""is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network."" Possible benefits include:
Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.
LIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)
Can the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?
",83,3
"Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This star (aka ""Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).
Most attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.
Now I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says ""yeah, of course that's what it was!"", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?
From [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:
7.2. An intervening molecular cloud
Alternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).
The Clemens &amp; Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.
A quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40"", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the ""mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).
In this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.
This question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:
We'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:
--- 
provide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and
--- 
are cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and
--- 
are cited at least 5 times in total, and
--- 
are not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.
If N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N&gt;1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. ""Comet breakup""), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.
Resolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)
",56,3
"What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

The 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. 
A key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. 
In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. 
Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:
What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?
For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

Resolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.
",47,3
"Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.
In the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.
Several countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.
Will the number fall to zero before the next increase? 
Question resolves:
--- 
Negative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.
--- 
Positive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.
",1193,3
"When will India become a World Bank high-income country?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/","Metaculus","[]","India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.
GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. 
The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.
MICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. 
MICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.
[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. 
The threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). 
The high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. 
This question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?
Resolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.
The question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.
",147,3
"What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

In 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).

Question
========

What will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?

Resolution
==========

Resolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:
---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination 
---A report from another body of the United Nations 
---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson 
---A report by another credible source 
If the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.
If the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. 
If the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.
",14,3
"In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/","Metaculus","[]","It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. 
A key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain ""[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)"", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that ""Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.""
Another [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).
These could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.
In what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? 
For specifics, we'll define ""fully autonomous"" using the NHTSA ""level 4"" designation:
The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.
We'll also specify that ""cars"" really means ""cars,"" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.
",361,3
"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.
The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.
In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).
If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?
Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.
",110,3
"What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/","Metaculus","[]","Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.
What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?
When the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.
As of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.
If the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. 
",80,3
"What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/","Metaculus","[]","As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:
What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?
Resolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).
If no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. 
",34,3
"When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.
Will the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.
Current quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&amp;ob=pv&amp;od=desc) of the current quarter.
",55,3
"Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.
A good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video ""P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo"" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)
The question asks: 
IF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? 
If no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)
As some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:
1--61 thought P≠NP. 
2--9 thought P=NP. 
3--4 thought that it is independent. 
4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. 
5--1 said it would depend on the model. 
6--22 offered no opinion. 
",206,3
"What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).
What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)
---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. 
---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. 
",242,3
"When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.
The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.
[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).
When will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?
This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.
See also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)
",120,3
"Will Moore's Law end by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.
Due to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. 
We shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.
Therefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?
We shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.
The question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. 
Resolution shall be by credible media report.
",317,3
"Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. 
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Question will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.
For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.
For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.
Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". 
",267,3
"When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus","[]","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.
A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)
There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.
Nonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.
When will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? 
The organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define ""successful"" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.
",99,3
"When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/","Metaculus","[]","[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was ""disgusted"" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are ""[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).""
When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?
This question resolves when the letters in question are made public.
",24,3
"When will the first exaflop performer appear?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/","Metaculus","[]","Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. 
Viewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).
According to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.
Computational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is ""exa"", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.
At what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)
",147,3
"In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/","Metaculus","[]","The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.
These electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:
--- 
[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.
--- 
[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.
Plurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.
This question asks:
In the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?
Resolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. 
--- 
States using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as ""plurality"", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.
--- 
States which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.
--- 
If the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.
--- 
If the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.
",47,3
"A decrease in US meat production by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.
There are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?
The [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:
In 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? 
Question will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.
",207,3
"When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/","Metaculus","[]","[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.
In a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:
That’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.
When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?
This question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:
---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing 
---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company 
---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company 
--- 
This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. 
--- 
This question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.
--- 
This question resolves as ""&gt;2035-11-10"" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. 
",22,3
"When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/","Metaculus","[]","The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.
All told, the set includes:
---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap 
---Riemann Hypothesis 
---P vs NP Problem 
---Navier–Stokes Equation 
---Hodge Conjecture 
---Poincaré Conjecture 
---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture 
Of these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:
[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: ""I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.""
At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) 
But when?
",85,3
"When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/","Metaculus","[]","There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. 
The Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.
Driving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:
When will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?
This question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.
",78,3
"Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA,  by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. 
MDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&amp;from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.
Non-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?
This question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.
",186,3
"Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.
After that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.
Will the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?
This question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.
",42,3
"Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. 
Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
Over the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).
Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).
Data
--- 
[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). 
--- 
[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
",57,3
"Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. 
Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. 
The failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.
Here we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.
By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? 
Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.
",162,3
"Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.
5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within ""4-5 years""](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.
Neither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.
The question contemplates two possible eventualities:
A) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.
B) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.
Question resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.
Note: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.
",123,3
"Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.
Human clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:
---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) 
---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) 
---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) 
Will a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by &gt;5%?
This question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)
",38,3
"What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Every year The Economist publishes the ""Democracy Index,"" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.
The numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:
--- 
Full democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019
--- 
Flawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019
--- 
Hybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019
--- 
Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019
What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?
This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).
",37,3
"Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,
--- 
Amazon Mechanical Turk workers
--- 
Redditors on /r/samplesize
--- 
A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.
--- 
Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent ""the people"".
asking them 
In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?
A list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [""Year in Search""](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. 
For the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.
Whether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most ""smile"" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,
If your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?
If after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with ""Yes"", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
",37,3
"Will China launch an ""artificial moon"" by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.
The claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.
Let's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. 
Resolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. ""Major Chinese city"" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).
",125,3
"Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).
If Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
",99,3
"What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context
=======

The property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&amp;C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):
Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. 
Following the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&amp;C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).
According to the [Council of Insurance Agents &amp; Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):
Premium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.
The same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.
COVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.

Question
========

What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?

Resolution
==========

This question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.
",54,3
"The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).
However, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. 
There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.
Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?
Resolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.
",127,3
"What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/","Metaculus","[]","In the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized).
A [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. As the pandemic drags on, Congress must decide to what extent it will continue these payments.
In its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers.
Historical data is provided on BEA's National Accounts [archive](https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=7). As an example, the data from July 2020 is provided [here](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/pi0720.pdf#page=7).
What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4, in billions of $USD?
Resolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled ""Unemployment insurance"", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2020 Q4. As of the July 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously.
",98,3
"Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3875/will-at-least-9-of-the-12-states-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-in-2020-be-states-that-voted-for-trump-in-2016/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.
For purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are: 
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama (We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). ([source](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election))
This question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus.
",537,3
"What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/","Metaculus","[]","related question:
---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) 
Economic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:
What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?
This resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as
this question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. 
",97,3
"What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/","Metaculus","[]","We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.
In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.
As of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.
This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?
",79,3
"If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.
In addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.
However, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).
The only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&amp;C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.
If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as ""variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals"" or ""animal drugs"" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).
This resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.
",63,3
"What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),
Neuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.
As of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.
Mati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).
What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?
This question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.
",45,3
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
Mind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. 
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):
A considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their ""biological shell"". 
However, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, ""uploading"" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.
In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the ""death"" of the person being uploaded?
Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the ""death"" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",84,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.
In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.
In a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.
When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): 
1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. 
2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. 
In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,
Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
The question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",159,3
"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)
Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):
2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th
Will they come in the Top 4 again?
Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics
This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.
The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
1--Number of Gold Medals 
2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals 
3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals 
",62,3
"What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/","Metaculus","[]","In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.
This question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?
Question resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.
",74,3
"How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. 
For the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.
Not included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.
How many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?
In the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.
",118,3
"What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus","[]","Context
-------

Levels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).
In the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. 
On occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).
What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?

Resolution Criteria
-------------------

The resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",35,3
"Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Hubble ""constant"", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.
A mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). 
Videos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&amp;src=typed_query&amp;f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.
Some examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts ""to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile"" the opposing observations.
The question asks:
By 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?
A [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is &lt; 2 sigma. A mean of &gt; 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. 
Footnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.
",55,3
"Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/","Metaculus","[]","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.
Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general.
The [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&amp;feature=youtu.be&amp;t=1h30m02s) was that, ""Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it."") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&amp;feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.
We ask:
What will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? 
To calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the ""Total Size"" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .
(*) Strictly speaking, this is ""bits-per-byte"" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.
",82,3
"Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.
Will Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?
This question resolves positively if all of the following occur:
--- 
Metaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question
------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries 
--- 
The payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) 
--- 
An individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024
If Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
",54,3
"Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). 
As predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): 
1-- 
The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. 
2-- 
The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.
It is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). 
But how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?
Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?
This question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.
",114,3
"When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/","Metaculus","[]","One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). 
We might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) ""[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).
When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
Clean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
",81,3
"Will the Universe end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.
The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether ""The Universe"" will end. 
Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as ""The Universe"" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.
When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the ""sky"" at some ""distance."" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [""observiball""](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [""lightcone,""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.
Turning this around to look into the future, we can consider the ""Affectiball,"" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.
We can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [""heat death""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that ""interesting things"" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:
Is the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?
If so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)
",573,3
"If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/","Metaculus","[]","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.
At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).
The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what latitude will it start in?
Latitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).
Many wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. 
Likewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a ""Third World War"" are not met by the resolve date:
--- 
Consensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)
--- 
Conflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.
This question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)
",56,3
"When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/","Metaculus","[]","Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are ""low-hanging fruit"": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.
One way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.
When will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?
---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. 
---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. 
---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). 
---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. 
---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. 
---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. 
---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. 
ETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.
",60,3
"LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?
The question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.
This question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).
If fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.
The Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.
",157,3
"Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.
After 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. 
As a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. 
This question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?
",105,3
"Tunnel vs. Wall","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that 
Am going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...
It shall be called ""The Boring Company""...
I am really going to do this.
Per early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.
This is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. 
In a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:
By start of 2025, will there be more Tunnel than Wall? 
Tunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.
",567,3
"What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/","Metaculus","[]","[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select ""ML / Data Science"" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.
What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?
If by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.
",40,3
"Will Trump flee the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),
I'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.
notany replied,
@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.
Pablo Stafforini replied,
@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.
Will Trump flee the United States?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
",183,3
"What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.
In June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.
This relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.
Would we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.
Resolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.
",88,3
"Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a 1.5 dose compared to 2 full doses?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5777/astrazeneca-vaccine-1%25C2%25BD-dose-more-effective/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Per [Statnews](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/) 
The preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.
...
AstraZeneca plans to explore adding the half dose-full dose regimen to its ongoing clinical trials in discussions with regulatory agencies, a spokesman told STAT in an email.
The half dose was originally [administered by accident](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-dosing/dosing-error-turns-into-lucky-punch-for-astrazeneca-and-oxford-idUSKBN28327Q)
Around the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.
They soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.
“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.
Since the half dose was not part of the originally registered trial, it's more complicated to figure out the significance of the difference here, and the future trials that will specifically test it will presumably be higher powered and able to settle the question more definitively.
Will AstraZeneca's vaccine turn out to be significantly more effective with a half-dose + full dose regimen compared to two full doses?
This question resolves positively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and finds that the former is more effective with a p-value below .05. 
This question resolves negatively if an RCT with over 1000 participants compares a protocol of half dose + full dose to two full doses, and fails to find a significant difference (i.e. p&gt;.05.)
This question resolves ambiguously if no such RCT is reported by May 1, 2021.
",202,3
"Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)
Nevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.
This question asks:
Will any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? 
A Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.
",296,3
"Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.
As shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.
While population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:
Will the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?
A negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.
",2107,3
"Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. 
The cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.
While the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))
Gros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))
This leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. 
Question resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.
",105,3
"Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the ""[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket))"".
SpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.
Yet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.
Therefore, it is asked:Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?
We shall define a ""reusable manner"" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.
For a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)
Resolution is by credible media report.
Closing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.
",571,3
"Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).
Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).
Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?
This question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. 
The fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.
A single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.
",104,3
"Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.
This question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?
For a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). 
If the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.
However, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.
",226,3
"Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is ""a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals."" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.
Sponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.
What is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
Funds are considered expropriated if:
---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. 
---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. 
---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). 
---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). 
The following situations do not qualify as expropriation:
---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. 
---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). 
---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. 
[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.
[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.
",47,3
"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?
The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.
Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) 
---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) 
",186,3
"When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.
This question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Resolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.
Note that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)
",301,3
"When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/","Metaculus","[]","[Covid-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)). The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus).
Various research groups [have started work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus#Vaccine_research) on a vaccine to fight the virus, with [some](https://web.archive.org/web/20200125203723/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-vaccines-idUSKBN1ZN2J8) hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.
Question: When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?
Details:
--- 
This question resolves as the date when one vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.
--- 
Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.
The first Covid-19 vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: 
---Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against Covid-19. 
---Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other. 
--- 
No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against Covid-19
--- 
The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
If does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as &gt;Mar 14, 2027. If it's not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.
",419,3
"When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/","Metaculus","[]","When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?
Resolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).
By average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.
",188,3
"How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.
China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.
However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. 
North America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. 
Changing the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). 
Other Related Questions:
[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)
How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?
Resolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.
",32,3
"When will the Apple car be unveiled?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/979/when-will-the-apple-car-be-unveiled/","Metaculus","[]","For quite some time, Apple has apparently been working hard on some sort of car. Details are very sketchy, but what is known at of mid-2018 is laid out pretty comprehensively in [this article](http://www.motortrend.com/news/apple-car-exclusive/). It suggests a launch date of 2019, but not with any real confidence. 
We'll ask:
When will the Apple car be officially announced? 
The announcement will presumably take the form of Tim Cook or someone being on stage with an Apple car that appears to function, but any other formal announcement will count as long as it is officially from Apple, and somehow includes an actual physical car. (This need not be a production model, or even function, but you should be able to sit in it.)
Note that ""never"" is an option here, included with any date after June 2021.
",105,3
"Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.
Also potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.
To measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.
On the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:
8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy
6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy
4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime
0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime
More information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).
The 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.
It is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?
Should the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.
",94,3
"What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5051/what-percentage-of-absentee-ballots-will-be-rejected-in-the-2020-us-election/","Metaculus","[]","In 2016, [1% of absentee ballots were rejected](https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf). 27.5% of rejections were for the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state's records, 20% of rejections were for missing a signature, and 23.1% of rejections were because the ballot was not recieved on time.
Recently, a [round of cost-cutting measures in the postal service](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/8/7/21358946/postal-service-mail-delays-election-trump-mail-in-ballots) combined with [Trump openly opposing additional funding due to mail-in voting](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/trump-opposes-usps-funding-394692) have meant that the postal service has wrote to 46 states and Washington DC that it [cannot guarantee](https://www.vox.com/2020/8/15/21369968/postal-service-trump-mail-ballot) that mail-in ballots sent by the usual deadlines will be recieved in time and advises that they be sent well in advance of the election. This raises the risk that many otherwise valid mail-in and absentee ballots will be rejected due to arriving late.
What percentage of absentee ballots returned and submitted for counting in the US 2020 election will be rejected?
Resolution will be by the figure given in the 2020 [Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) Comprehensive Report](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports).
",222,3
"What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/","Metaculus","[]","Disease:
is a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.
According to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. 
Futurists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),
Would it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?
This question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) &lt; 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.
One such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).
",35,3
"When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/","Metaculus","[]","Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. 
The question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.
",116,3
"How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). 
According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.
How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
",147,3
"Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.
The latest is the [""Moon to Mars""](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:
The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'
The general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).
[Metaculus has very similar and popular question ""Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.
So, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?
The question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.
",297,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).
[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.
Moreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:
Past studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).
In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,
Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
The question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. 
A biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.
This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
1-- 
[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
2-- 
[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
3-- 
[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
4-- 
[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
5-- 
[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
6-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
7-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
8-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
9-- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
10- 
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
",114,3
"When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.
[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).
On what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain &gt;=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?
1-- 
The reported &gt;=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.
2-- 
If the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as &gt; Sep 15, 2025.
3-- 
The ""mining pool"" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.
4-- 
Note that in hash rate distribution charts, ""Unknown"" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from ""Unknown"" miners ever attained &gt;=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up &gt;=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.
5-- 
One possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with &gt;50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with &gt;50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.
",87,3
"Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).
The satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.
It is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. 
The official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. 
Many people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.
More information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))
Was Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? 
This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.
The question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.
The question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.
",119,3
"When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/","Metaculus","[]","[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is ""not fit for purpose"". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.
It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. 
This system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.
The [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]
When will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?
Resolution
This resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.
Important note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as ""&gt;Dec 31, 2032"".
One way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.
The question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.
",92,3
"Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.
According to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.
More recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions ""as well as the average 11th-grade American student."" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS ""uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015."" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.
This is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:
By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? 
Resolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.
",700,3
"Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.
Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.
For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.
1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).
2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either 
a) he is no longer President, or 
b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)
3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.
4) He would have to be found guilty.
5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.
6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.
Number 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).
We will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?
This question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated
Note that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.
",1345,3
"Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):
Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.
Carlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]
Originally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being ""controlled by the banks"" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as ""perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.""[8]
Carlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). 
There is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):
Tucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.
Republican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.
“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. 
Others:
---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) 
---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) 
Will Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?
This resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.
",176,3
"How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.
When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.
How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?
The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. 
",54,3
"3.6°C global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). 
Given these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.
In particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a &gt;6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.
The estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) 
The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.
Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?
Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.
",133,3
"Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.
According to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):
SpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) 
A close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). 
Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?
Resolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.
",137,3
"What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6473/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-1-march/","Metaculus","[]","In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.
According to data from the recently launched [CoVariants.org](https://covariants.org/), the three variants in question — B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 — are [steadily increasing as a proportion of overall sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the US](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). 
The proportion of S:N501 among all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database in the US for the week of 2021-01-11 (2021-01-11 to 2021-01-17, inclusive) was [0.05, or 5%](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). Note that data for previous weeks are backfilled with sequences uploaded at later dates, so these percentages might change slightly over time — in other words, there is a lag between sequence collection and sequence upload.
In response to an increased incidence of S:N501 variants, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, further focus on contact tracing, and increase the rate of genomic sequencing.
Data sources and more information:
---[Distribution of S:N501 per country](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) 
---[CoVariants](https://covariants.org/) 
---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 
---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) 
---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) 
---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) 
---[S gene dropout patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests suggest spread of the H69del/V70del mutation in the US](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248814v1.full.pdf) 
---[Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends](https://www.helix.com/pages/helix-covid-19-surveillance-dashboard) 
What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive), as displayed on the ""Distribution of S:N501 per country"" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-03-15.
",87,3
"When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/","Metaculus","[]","The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.
Currently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. 
However, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. 
To take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.
Interestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).
When will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?
This question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).
Prices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).
",139,3
"When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male ""pill"") on the US market?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/","Metaculus","[]","Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. 
When will such contraception be available to US men?
For resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) 
It must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.
",78,3
"If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/","Metaculus","[]","The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.
Since biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.
Given that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?
Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.
",61,3
"What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/","Metaculus","[]","Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.
[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic ""is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades."" 
In 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).
What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?
The question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.
The Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. 
",75,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). 
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. 
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. 
",196,3
"Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. 
They have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition ""harvest moon"" set to be in 2021.
This question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:
Will they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? 
Question resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.
",234,3
"When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/","Metaculus","[]","In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. 
National Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) ""the moon-landing of free-soloing"" and reported: 
It’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.
In June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.
Hans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: ""It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”
Per [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): 
The Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. 
According to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?
",77,3
"How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/","Metaculus","[]","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).
If success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.
Moreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.
How many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. 
For a company to qualify as a ""clean meat company"" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words ""clean meat"", ""cultured meat"" or ""in-vitro meat"" or ""cultivated meat"", ""cell-based meat"", or any variations where ""meat"" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. ""clean beef""), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline ""clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation"". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.
The article should demonstrate that the term ""clean meat"" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term ""clean meat"" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.
Additionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. 
The resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.
Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)
",127,3
"Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[warning: links may contain spoilers]
[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).
Many of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).
For instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).
Also: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).
This question asks the following:
Will George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?
Details: 
--- 
I have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [""A Dream of Spring""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.
--- 
For a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).
------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. ""The End"" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) 
",334,3
"When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/","Metaculus","[]","As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)
This question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?
This question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.
",210,3
"When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/","Metaculus","[]","The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.
These folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?
In order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:
---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... 
---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. 
When will this first happen?
",38,3
"When will Disneyland reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4116/when-will-disneyland-reopen/","Metaculus","[]","Much of the US economy is shut down in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. At some point, businesses will reopen, likely starting with those that are important to everyday life and do not involve large groups of people. A reasonable proxy for the general reopening of the economy is the reopening of Disneyland in California as it is not critical to everyday life and does involve large crowds. If Disneyland is open, it means everything probably is as well.
If Disneyland in Anaheim, California reopens its doors to the public, on what day will it first do so? For the purpose of this question, the reopening day is the first day when all of the following are satisfied:
---The Disneyland website (currently hosted [here](https://disneyland.disney.go.com/destinations/disneyland/)) is accessible and does not indicate that the park is closed (it currently has a notice about temporary closure) 
---Tickets to the park can be bought on that website 
---At least three pictures of people visiting the park for fun are published on social media or press 
",378,3
"What will be the value of the (herein described) ""AI winter index"" at end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/974/what-will-be-the-value-of-the-herein-described-ai-winter-index-at-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new ""winter,"" as argued in [this article](https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/04/the-ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/). We shall define an index as follows:
--- 
+1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 [5-year Google trends search](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;q=%22AI%20winter%22) on ""AI winter"" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at &lt; 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.
--- 
+1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase ""AI winter"" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.
--- 
+1 if the fraction of [listed YC funded startups](https://yclist.com) that mention ""AI"" or ""machine learning"" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.
--- 
+1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing ""artificial intelligence"" OR ""machine learning"" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the [corresponding search for 2018](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-0-field=abstract&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22machine+learning%22&amp;terms-1-field=abstract&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;date-year=2018&amp;date-filter_by=date_range&amp;date-from_date=2018-01-01&amp;date-to_date=2018-06-01&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)
--- 
+1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to ""machine learning"" divided by those limited to ""artificial intelligence"" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.
Any of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.
What will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index? 
",295,3
"Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).
Researchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).
Will these be popular among at least ""innovators"" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025
Will 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025
Resolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate &gt; 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.
",237,3
"Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
Pathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).
Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
Over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).
Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).
Data
--- 
[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). 
--- 
[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
",89,3
"Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.
Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?
For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:
1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.
2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)
3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).
4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.
If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.
For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.
This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).
This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.
",131,3
"Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime ""metrics"" one can write down with the requisite properties.
There is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. 
More specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as ""energy conditions."" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the ""weak energy condition"" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)
These energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.
On the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. ""Violations"" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...
So instead we ask:
Will a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? 
To be specific, we'll ask whether &gt; 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)
",262,3
"When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/","Metaculus","[]","At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.
The chosen metrics are,
--- 
[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).
--- 
[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).
--- 
[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.
This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.
",127,3
"Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.
The Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.
But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. 
ESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:
Will humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?
Will resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with &gt; 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.
",514,3
"Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).
Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. 
At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin ""threads"" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.
In the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) 
Needless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.
Elon Musk: [""From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.""](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)
[""It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.""](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)
[""You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.""](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)
[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)
This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? 
You can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)
The implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.
Note that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. 
Resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.
",206,3
"When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/","Metaculus","[]","In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.
For completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.
We can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) 
where input n is a positive integer.
Possible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:
---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 
---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever 
---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers 
The Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.
The halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. 
It is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.
There are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.
---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. 
---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. 
---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. 
---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. 
When will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:
---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. 
---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. 
---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. 
This question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.
Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) 
---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) 
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) 
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) 
",74,3
"What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus","[]","From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,
The impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.
A common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),
On average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.
Here I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.
This question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.
Metaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.
",27,3
"What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/","Metaculus","[]","In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:
while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.
Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. 
What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?
Resolution
This question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.
If no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.
",90,3
"When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/","Metaculus","[]","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.
It also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.
The Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.
Because justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.
According to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.
The most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.
When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
This question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.
If the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. 
",161,3
"When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/","Metaculus","[]","Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.
When completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to ""study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.""
Per [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),
[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.
Of course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.
To that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? 
Resolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.
",54,3
"How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/","Metaculus","[]","The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.
Construction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. 
Rebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.
They've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.
As this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:
The Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. 
This other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): 
Knowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.
What do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?
(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)
",202,3
"What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/","Metaculus","[]","In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.
Their univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.
As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.
What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?
Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
",112,3