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44
data/csetforetell-questions.json
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@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 7,500", "name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.055, "probability": 0.0475,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1367, "probability": 0.115,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.34, "probability": 0.33380000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.1783, "probability": 0.2263,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 13,500", "name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.29, "probability": 0.2775,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "6", "numforecasts": "8",
"numforecasters": "6", "numforecasters": "8",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -79,32 +79,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $400 billion", "name": "Less than $400 billion",
"probability": 0.04, "probability": 0.0333,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.188, "probability": 0.1567,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
"probability": 0.43200000000000005, "probability": 0.465,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
"probability": 0.306, "probability": 0.31670000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $775 billion", "name": "More than $775 billion",
"probability": 0.034, "probability": 0.028300000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "5", "numforecasts": "6",
"numforecasters": "5", "numforecasters": "6",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -151,32 +151,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than $470 billion", "name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.051399999999999994, "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.11, "probability": 0.1125,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.21170000000000003, "probability": 0.21969999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3443, "probability": 0.3431,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than $680 billion", "name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.2826, "probability": 0.2747,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "52", "numforecasts": "53",
"numforecasters": "51", "numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{ {
@ -196,7 +196,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "93", "numforecasts": "94",
"numforecasters": "86", "numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },

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data/elicit-questions.json
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data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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@ -3,16 +3,16 @@
"title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>", "title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment", "platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows\" target=\"_blank\">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations\" target=\"_blank\">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.", "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows\" target=\"_blank\">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations\" target=\"_blank\">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 July 2021", "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.22, "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.74, "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -119,12 +119,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million", "name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
"probability": 0.16, "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive", "name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.79, "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -186,12 +186,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021", "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.14, "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021", "name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -215,22 +215,22 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.12, "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.69, "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021", "name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.16, "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 November 2021", "name": "Not before 1 November 2021",
"probability": 0.02, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -249,12 +249,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.97, "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.03, "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -278,12 +278,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Before 1 July 2021", "name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.42, "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021", "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.47, "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -293,12 +293,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021", "name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.05, "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022", "name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.02, "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -312,7 +312,7 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "The Games will begin", "name": "The Games will begin",
"probability": 0.98, "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -322,7 +322,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "The Games will be cancelled", "name": "The Games will be cancelled",
"probability": 0.01, "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -399,12 +399,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.42, "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Higher by more than 100%", "name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.57, "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -457,12 +457,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.81, "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.16, "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {

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data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Macron and Le Pen", "name": "Macron and Le Pen",
"probability": 0.6037735849056604, "probability": 0.6153846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
"probability": 0.11320754716981131, "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
"probability": 0.2358490566037736, "probability": 0.22115384615384617,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Neither of them", "name": "Neither of them",
"probability": 0.04716981132075472, "probability": 0.04807692307692307,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -194,17 +194,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
"probability": 0.9223300970873787, "probability": 0.9117647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Later in 2021", "name": "Later in 2021",
"probability": 0.05825242718446602, "probability": 0.06862745098039215,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not in 2021", "name": "Not in 2021",
"probability": 0.01941747572815534, "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "March 2021", "name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.010101010101010102, "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe later", "name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.2, "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "April 2021", "name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.11111111111111112, "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "May 2021", "name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.26262626262626265, "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "June 2021", "name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.37373737373737376, "probability": 0.36633663366336633,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe after June 2021", "name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.24242424242424243, "probability": 0.28712871287128716,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -387,12 +387,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09, "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.91, "probability": 0.900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -523,7 +523,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Q3, 2021", "name": "Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.4476190476190476, "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -533,7 +533,7 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Maybe later", "name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.13333333333333333, "probability": 0.2476190476190476,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -571,17 +571,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record", "name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.23, "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
"probability": 0.27, "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Not worse than 2020", "name": "Not worse than 2020",
"probability": 0.5, "probability": 0.504950495049505,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -595,32 +595,32 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
"probability": 0.19626168224299065, "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
"probability": 0.6542056074766356, "probability": 0.660377358490566,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728, "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "A member of SPD", "name": "A member of SPD",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728, "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "A member of the Green party", "name": "A member of the Green party",
"probability": 0.10280373831775702, "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Someone else", "name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364, "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -634,27 +634,27 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "in Q1, 2021", "name": "in Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0.04950495049504951, "probability": 0.08571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q2, 2021", "name": "in Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.31683168316831684, "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q3, 2021", "name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.12871287128712872, "probability": 0.1238095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "in Q4, 2021", "name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.15841584158415842, "probability": 0.15238095238095237,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Perhaps later", "name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.3465346534653465, "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -668,22 +668,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.02752293577981652, "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.6422018348623854, "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.25688073394495414, "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.07339449541284404, "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -697,22 +697,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "USA", "name": "USA",
"probability": 0.8811881188118812, "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "France", "name": "France",
"probability": 0.019801980198019802, "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Germany", "name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.0297029702970297, "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "United Kingdom", "name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.06930693069306931, "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -788,12 +788,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95, "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.05, "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -807,12 +807,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.94, "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.06, "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

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data/ladbrokes-questions.json
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@ -1407,22 +1407,22 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "2021", "name": "2021",
"probability": 0.1569111315319408, "probability": 0.22909090909090907,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "2022", "name": "2022",
"probability": 0.1448410444910223, "probability": 0.1309090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "2023", "name": "2023",
"probability": 0.1344952555988064, "probability": 0.1309090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "2024 or later", "name": "2024 or later",
"probability": 0.5637525683782305, "probability": 0.509090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1779,6 +1779,39 @@
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
}, },
{
"title": "Hartlepool By-election: To Win",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.5261973798876447,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4334864129550597,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.0045289625234110715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.02677416080016545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
"probability": 0.009013083833719062,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{ {
"title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)", "title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
@ -2408,12 +2441,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "SNP Majority", "name": "SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.625, "probability": 0.6076923076923076,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No SNP Majority", "name": "No SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.375, "probability": 0.39230769230769225,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

7694
data/metaculus-questions.json
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4
data/omen-questions.json
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@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3054643135991191, "probability": 0.32447474726652153,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": 0.6945356864008809, "probability": 0.6755252527334784,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],

445
data/polymarket-questions.json
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@ -1,24 +1,4 @@
[ [
{
"title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8210843425606883932577026603711056",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1789156574393116067422973396288944",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "86",
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021",
@ -27,36 +7,36 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04230439517024041202188761379533177", "probability": "0.04370182432456576988928154888546837",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9576956048297595879781123862046682", "probability": "0.9562981756754342301107184511145316",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "136", "numforecasts": "141",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?", "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.590714245983359374033906060938728", "probability": "0.1934946039826556687210229849332036",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.409285754016640625966093939061272", "probability": "0.8065053960173443312789770150667964",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "1098", "numforecasts": "109",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -67,37 +47,48 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9404923421274491912575869598563209", "probability": "0.93969077074312079300852328223358",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.05950765787255080874241304014367906", "probability": "0.06030922925687920699147671776642001",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "1211", "numforecasts": "1245",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.9000917694479315732807625228160966", "probability": "0.6706007725723407971118622145171625",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.0999082305520684267192374771839034", "probability": "0.3293992274276592028881377854828375",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "746", "numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 3 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
@ -110,46 +101,6 @@
], ],
"options": [] "options": []
}, },
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2653722700132592071193972157990358",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7346277299867407928806027842009642",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "98",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.7298930612036890560025667805575824",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.2701069387963109439974332194424176",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "85",
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021",
@ -158,16 +109,47 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.35432149199383195961631776417634", "probability": "0.3624685664431505215185183055911118",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.64567850800616804038368223582366", "probability": "0.6375314335568494784814816944088882",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "821", "numforecasts": "847",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
"address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36",
"description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5334554631862323402820807933319699",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4665445368137676597179192066680301",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "195",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -178,56 +160,36 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01154405211189743827135156638705084", "probability": "0.009883483868312364959358354119723674",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9884559478881025617286484336129492", "probability": "0.9901165161316876350406416458802763",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "3810", "numforecasts": "3847",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3992180768566974816348527785427362", "probability": "0.719850923592054496298680049174087",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.6007819231433025183651472214572638", "probability": "0.280149076407945503701319950825913",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "40", "numforecasts": "54",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5186374815653130703780627007855618",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4813625184346869296219372992144382",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "180",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -238,18 +200,38 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05235204328927104384398080690325785", "probability": "0.05012065833654499591695567341102339",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9476479567107289561560191930967421", "probability": "0.9498793416634550040830443265889766",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "460", "numforecasts": "490",
"stars": 3 "stars": 3
}, },
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5770169935621389802193058406202036",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4229830064378610197806941593797964",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "511",
"stars": 4
},
{ {
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
@ -258,76 +240,16 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7645639315269544210625576398861445", "probability": "0.7276668169911683398097118967867872",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.2354360684730455789374423601138555", "probability": "0.2723331830088316601902881032132128",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "186", "numforecasts": "209",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08639576439906160345569679883924252",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9136042356009383965443032011607575",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "296",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07912744676147613200988215797057122",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9208725532385238679901178420294288",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "61",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6378336067386002818693056840263355",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3621663932613997181306943159736645",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4879",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
@ -338,57 +260,37 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1710012762395096492854638276142472", "probability": "0.1249616481551395062886539344923381",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.8289987237604903507145361723857528", "probability": "0.8750383518448604937113460655076619",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "39", "numforecasts": "47",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.580310119601644467086386388930093", "probability": "0.08259787410691690061287893351053922",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.419689880398355532913613611069907", "probability": "0.9174021258930830993871210664894608",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "408", "numforecasts": "298",
"stars": 4 "stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2369102904781910210045405816592945",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7630897095218089789954594183407055",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1264",
"stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
@ -398,41 +300,152 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Texas", "name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.3822268185332019571567270535991622", "probability": "0.3500003620826511607920533084438381",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Florida", "name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.4841158144450835226246633130930288", "probability": "0.51451285463340818053806694975702",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "California", "name": "California",
"probability": "0.1336573670217145202186096333078089", "probability": "0.1354867832839406586698797417991419",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "129", "numforecasts": "143",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07912778821948962977238564057112765",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9208722117805103702276143594288724",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.001051940649472768178218571021399585",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9989480593505272318217814289786004",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1732",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6181001610258899706713743885934304",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3818998389741100293286256114065696",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4984",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 80",
"probability": "0.3405166665208588557030405261550704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81-95",
"probability": "0.2069257779675633066754996274438289",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "96-110",
"probability": "0.1634832414861564553275933427922908",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "111-125",
"probability": "0.1235110987017487763250162114444212",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "126-140",
"probability": "0.08248548304886138067830916935318297",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 140",
"probability": "0.08307773227481122529054112281120574",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "81",
"stars": 4 "stars": 4
}, },
{ {
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket", "address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Yes", "name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05895633696239021853329046475585481", "probability": "0.4854328413848816857344594320279314",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "No", "name": "No",
"probability": "0.9410436630376097814667095352441452", "probability": "0.5145671586151183142655405679720686",
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"numforecasts": "73", "numforecasts": "36",
"stars": 3 "stars": 4
} }
] ]

1167
data/predictit-questions.json
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76
data/smarkets-questions.json
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@ -1249,17 +1249,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "2023 or earlier", "name": "2023 or earlier",
"probability": 0.3862793572311496, "probability": 0.4574565416285453,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "2024", "name": "2024",
"probability": 0.2971260815822003, "probability": 0.23760292772186642,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "2025 or later", "name": "2025 or later",
"probability": 0.3165945611866502, "probability": 0.30494053064958826,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -1273,41 +1273,41 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Sadiq Khan", "name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.9483313228789705, "probability": 0.9424575424575425,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Shaun Bailey", "name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.025130679533574583, "probability": 0.024975024975024976,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Siân Berry", "name": "Siân Berry",
"probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Brian Rose", "name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.025130679533574583, "probability": 0.029370629370629373,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Mandu Reid", "name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Luisa Porritt", "name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Laurence Fox", "name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.0010052271813429834, "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -2317,17 +2317,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Shaun Bailey", "name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.8455299539170507, "probability": 0.8493275172664486,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Sadiq Khan", "name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.018433179723502304, "probability": 0.016539440203562343,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Siân Berry", "name": "Siân Berry",
"probability": 0.004608294930875576, "probability": 0.004543802253725918,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
@ -2337,12 +2337,12 @@
}, },
{ {
"name": "Brian Rose", "name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.08018433179723501, "probability": 0.07906215921483097,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Mandu Reid", "name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.051244239631336404, "probability": 0.05052708106143221,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -2548,17 +2548,17 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "GroenLinks", "name": "GroenLinks",
"probability": 0.32843910130074894, "probability": 0.3164641093809343,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)", "name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)",
"probability": 0.13312968072526607, "probability": 0.12827573110520318,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)", "name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)",
"probability": 0.5384312179739851, "probability": 0.5552601595138625,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -3398,12 +3398,12 @@
"options": [ "options": [
{ {
"name": "Less than 2.0%", "name": "Less than 2.0%",
"probability": 0.4217184495496407, "probability": 0.4299680766161213,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
}, },
{ {
"name": "2.0% or more", "name": "2.0% or more",
"probability": 0.5782815504503592, "probability": 0.5700319233838786,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
@ -4300,5 +4300,39 @@
], ],
"description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", "description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool by-election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4359478731251537,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.4820916318334563,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.08196049504139005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2
} }
] ]

2
src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
View File

@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
// Crowd percentage // Crowd percentage
let htmlElements = response.split("\n") let htmlElements = response.split("\n")
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("<h3>"))[0] let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("<h3>"))[0]
console.log(h3Element) // console.log(h3Element)
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0] let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0]
let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100 let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100
options.push(({ options.push(({