diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json
index 3162f6c..bc2a86b 100644
--- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json
+++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json
@@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.055,
+ "probability": 0.0475,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1367,
+ "probability": 0.115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.33380000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.1783,
+ "probability": 0.2263,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.2775,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "numforecasters": "6",
+ "numforecasts": "8",
+ "numforecasters": "8",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -79,32 +79,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.0333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.188,
+ "probability": 0.1567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.43200000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.465,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.306,
+ "probability": 0.31670000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.034,
+ "probability": 0.028300000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "5",
- "numforecasters": "5",
+ "numforecasts": "6",
+ "numforecasters": "6",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -151,32 +151,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.051399999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.1125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.21170000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.21969999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.3443,
+ "probability": 0.3431,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.2826,
+ "probability": 0.2747,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "52",
- "numforecasters": "51",
+ "numforecasts": "53",
+ "numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -196,7 +196,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "93",
+ "numforecasts": "94",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 2
},
diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json
index 8440a91..22024d2 100644
--- a/data/elicit-questions.json
+++ b/data/elicit-questions.json
@@ -26,17 +26,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.821587982832618,
+ "probability": 0.8205128205128206,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17841201716738198,
+ "probability": 0.1794871794871794,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 233,
- "numforecasters": 125,
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "numforecasters": 126,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -46,17 +46,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36962264150943397,
+ "probability": 0.3674375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6303773584905661,
+ "probability": 0.6325625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "numforecasters": 103,
+ "numforecasts": 160,
+ "numforecasters": 104,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -399,26 +399,6 @@
"numforecasters": 66,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "How good is your memory?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5229113924050633,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47708860759493665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "numforecasters": 63,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Do you have an internal monologue?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -439,6 +419,26 @@
"numforecasters": 63,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "How good is your memory?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5229113924050633,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.47708860759493665,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "numforecasters": 63,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -519,26 +519,6 @@
"numforecasters": 54,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24506666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7549333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "numforecasters": 52,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -559,6 +539,26 @@
"numforecasters": 52,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.24506666666666668,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7549333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "numforecasters": 52,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -780,22 +780,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38967741935483874,
+ "probability": 0.02909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6103225806451613,
+ "probability": 0.9709090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 31,
+ "numforecasts": 33,
"numforecasters": 29,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -820,42 +820,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.38967741935483874,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.6103225806451613,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02909090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9709090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 33,
+ "numforecasts": 31,
"numforecasters": 29,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -879,6 +859,46 @@
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "numforecasters": 29,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.82125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17874999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "numforecasters": 28,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -899,26 +919,6 @@
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9027272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09727272727272729,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "numforecasters": 28,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -940,22 +940,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82125,
+ "probability": 0.9027272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17874999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.09727272727272729,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 32,
+ "numforecasts": 33,
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1139,26 +1139,6 @@
"numforecasters": 24,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09692307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9030769230769231,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 23,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1179,6 +1159,26 @@
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09692307692307692,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9030769230769231,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 23,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1199,26 +1199,6 @@
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9253846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 23,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1240,42 +1220,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19347826086956524,
+ "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8065217391304348,
+ "probability": 0.9253846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "numforecasters": 22,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.6226923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.37730769230769234,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1300,42 +1280,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6226923076923077,
+ "probability": 0.19347826086956524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37730769230769234,
+ "probability": 0.8065217391304348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 23,
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1360,42 +1320,62 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6084375,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39156250000000004,
+ "probability": 0.9333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2885185185185185,
+ "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7114814814814815,
+ "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7363999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1419,6 +1399,46 @@
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6084375,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39156250000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5815384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.41846153846153844,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 39,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1440,22 +1460,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.994090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.2885185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.005909090909090975,
+ "probability": 0.7114814814814815,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasts": 27,
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1500,98 +1520,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5815384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.994090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.005909090909090975,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 39,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2636,
+ "probability": 0.07454545454545454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7363999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04739130434782608,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9526086956521739,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21636363636363637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7836363636363637,
+ "probability": 0.9254545454545454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1619,26 +1579,6 @@
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1700,42 +1640,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07454545454545454,
+ "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9254545454545454,
+ "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasts": 35,
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1760,158 +1680,118 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
+ "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+ "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21636363636363637,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7836363636363637,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.04739130434782608,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9526086956521739,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8675,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.13249999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0695,
+ "probability": 0.484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9305,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- },
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4305714285714286,
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- "numforecasts": 35,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6031428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02210526315789474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9778947368421053,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.542,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45799999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.516,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1939,6 +1819,86 @@
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39685714285714285,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6031428571428572,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5694285714285714,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4305714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02210526315789474,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9778947368421053,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1960,18 +1920,58 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.484,
+ "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.516,
+ "probability": 0.5295238095238095,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.542,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45799999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2000,38 +2000,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8675,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13249999999999995,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.0695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
+ "probability": 0.9305,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2059,6 +2059,66 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12047619047619047,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8795238095238095,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3281481481481482,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6718518518518518,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5177777777777778,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4822222222222222,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2080,18 +2140,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03318181818181818,
+ "probability": 0.8692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9668181818181818,
+ "probability": 0.13080000000000003,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6754545454545454,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.3245454545454546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2119,26 +2199,6 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13080000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2159,6 +2219,26 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03318181818181818,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9668181818181818,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2180,83 +2260,63 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6754545454545454,
+ "probability": 0.4717391304347826,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3245454545454546,
+ "probability": 0.5282608695652173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 18,
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12047619047619047,
+ "probability": 0.2161904761904762,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8795238095238095,
+ "probability": 0.7838095238095237,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5177777777777778,
+ "probability": 0.35,
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},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4822222222222222,
+ "probability": 0.65,
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}
],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 18,
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- {
- "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3281481481481482,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6718518518518518,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "numforecasters": 18,
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -2280,18 +2340,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2161904761904762,
+ "probability": 0.009444444444444445,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7838095238095237,
+ "probability": 0.9905555555555555,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8395238095238095,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2299,6 +2379,26 @@
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12789473684210526,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8721052631578947,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2339,86 +2439,6 @@
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6905,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8395238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12789473684210526,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8721052631578947,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2440,22 +2460,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4717391304347826,
+ "probability": 0.3095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5282608695652173,
+ "probability": 0.6905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasts": 20,
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2480,42 +2500,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.009444444444444445,
+ "probability": 0.049,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9905555555555555,
+ "probability": 0.951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5777777777777778,
+ "probability": 0.7770588235294117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42222222222222217,
+ "probability": 0.2229411764705883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasts": 17,
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2540,38 +2560,58 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04125,
+ "probability": 0.5777777777777778,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95875,
+ "probability": 0.42222222222222217,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasts": 18,
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0811764705882353,
+ "probability": 0.3466666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9188235294117647,
+ "probability": 0.6533333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "US presidents term limits abolished",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02235294117647059,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9776470588235294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2600,18 +2640,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7770588235294117,
+ "probability": 0.19105263157894736,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2229411764705883,
+ "probability": 0.8089473684210526,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.0811764705882353,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9188235294117647,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2640,83 +2700,243 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19105263157894736,
+ "probability": 0.04125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8089473684210526,
+ "probability": 0.95875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 16,
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},
{
- "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3466666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.7811764705882354,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6533333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.049,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.951,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "US presidents term limits abolished",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02235294117647059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9776470588235294,
+ "probability": 0.21882352941176464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.926875,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.073125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.933125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.06687500000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7394117647058823,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2605882352941177,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5517647058823529,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44823529411764707,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.294375,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.705625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7655,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1448,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8552,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03705882352941177,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9629411764705882,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6647058823529411,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.33529411764705885,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41470588235294115,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5852941176470589,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -2739,6 +2959,26 @@
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.118125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.881875,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2779,186 +3019,6 @@
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41470588235294115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5852941176470589,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6647058823529411,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33529411764705885,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.294375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.705625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7394117647058823,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2605882352941177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7811764705882354,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21882352941176464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.118125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.881875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.933125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06687500000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5517647058823529,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44823529411764707,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2979,26 +3039,6 @@
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03705882352941177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9629411764705882,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3020,82 +3060,82 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1448,
+ "probability": 0.28214285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8552,
+ "probability": 0.7178571428571429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.926875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.073125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.0955,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.9045,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -3120,22 +3160,162 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.111875,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.888125,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07857142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9214285714285715,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.47388888888888886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5261111111111112,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -3179,46 +3359,6 @@
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47388888888888886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5261111111111112,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3240,102 +3380,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28214285714285714,
+ "probability": 0.111875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7178571428571429,
+ "probability": 0.888125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07857142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9214285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8717647058823529,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12823529411764711,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -3360,18 +3420,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
+ "probability": 0.8717647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
+ "probability": 0.12823529411764711,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3379,166 +3439,6 @@
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2978571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7021428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04923076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9507692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.106875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.893125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4446153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5553846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3560,58 +3460,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.2675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8538461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2764285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7235714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.320625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6793750000000001,
+ "probability": 0.7324999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3640,18 +3500,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.040769230769230766,
+ "probability": 0.3375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9592307692307692,
+ "probability": 0.6625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14615384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8538461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3659,6 +3539,146 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4446153846153846,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5553846153846154,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.06625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.93375,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6271428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.3728571428571429,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "10 million",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08416666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9158333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.106875,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.893125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1469230769230769,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8530769230769231,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5135714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.48642857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3679,26 +3699,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "ETI is AGI",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8461111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15388888888888885,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3740,78 +3740,58 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5135714285714286,
+ "probability": 0.040769230769230766,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48642857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.9592307692307692,
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}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "ETI is AGI",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.8461111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.15388888888888885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 18,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6271428571428571,
+ "probability": 0.3830769230769231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3728571428571429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1469230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8530769230769231,
+ "probability": 0.6169230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3839,46 +3819,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7324999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3830769230769231,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6169230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3899,66 +3839,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.93375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3999,26 +3879,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "10 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08416666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9158333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 36,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4040,58 +3900,178 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.320625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.6793750000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2764285714285714,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7235714285714285,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.89,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
+ "probability": 0.04923076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
+ "probability": 0.9507692307692308,
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}
],
- "numforecasts": 33,
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14166666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.2978571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8583333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.7021428571428572,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.045,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.955,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4099,26 +4079,6 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
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- "name": "No",
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- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4140,18 +4100,178 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.304,
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},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.696,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07642857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9235714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.3666666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3707692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6292307692307693,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.04642857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9535714285714285,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.696923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.303076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1825,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8175,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4179,46 +4299,6 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3707692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6292307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.696923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.303076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4239,46 +4319,6 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.696,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4300,98 +4340,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.7892307692307692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3666666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.21076923076923082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07642857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9235714285714286,
+ "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4399,6 +4379,46 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.533076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14166666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8583333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4440,38 +4460,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
+ "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
+ "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4480,58 +4480,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7892307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21076923076923082,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4540,22 +4500,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04642857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9535714285714285,
+ "probability": 0.994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -4579,26 +4539,6 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4620,78 +4560,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
+ "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.533076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.006,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.994,
+ "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4720,43 +4600,123 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2475,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7525,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 33,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4310526315789474,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5689473684210526,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.175,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.825,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -4779,6 +4739,66 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5685714285714285,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4314285714285715,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05416666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9458333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4800,18 +4820,138 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7872727272727272,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "50 million",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 34,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4592307692307692,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5407692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03538461538461538,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9646153846153847,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6836363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4820,22 +4960,162 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.332,
+ "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6679999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2475,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7525,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.57,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6481818181818181,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.3518181818181819,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -4859,6 +5139,86 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44083333333333335,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5591666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5846153846153845,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23377083333333332,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7662291666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26272727272727275,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7372727272727273,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4900,262 +5260,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2809090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7190909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26272727272727275,
+ "probability": 0.332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7372727272727273,
+ "probability": 0.6679999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05416666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9458333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08923076923076924,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9107692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4753846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5246153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44083333333333335,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5591666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5846153846153845,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5621428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43785714285714283,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10181818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8981818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4592307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5407692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45692307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.543076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -5180,38 +5320,98 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4307692307692308,
+ "probability": 0.10285714285714287,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5692307692307692,
+ "probability": 0.8971428571428571,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.024166666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9758333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9325,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.0675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5240,358 +5440,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10285714285714287,
+ "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8971428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20384615384615384,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7961538461538462,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47307692307692306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4314285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6836363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7872727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23377083333333332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7662291666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.546923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5620,18 +5480,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03538461538461538,
+ "probability": 0.4307692307692308,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9646153846153847,
+ "probability": 0.5692307692307692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5640,38 +5500,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
+ "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.546923076923077,
+ "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9325,
+ "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.0675,
+ "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5679,6 +5539,226 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5621428571428572,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.43785714285714283,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.47307692307692306,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.20384615384615384,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7961538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.024166666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9758333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45692307692307693,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.543076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10181818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8981818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.91,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4753846153846154,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5246153846153846,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2809090909090909,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7190909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "'President Mike Pence'",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5700,238 +5780,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
+ "probability": 0.08923076923076924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "50 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6481818181818181,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3518181818181819,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
+ "probability": 0.9107692307692308,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5690909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4309090909090909,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.958,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3346153846153846,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5939,66 +5819,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.783,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.413,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.587,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.261,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.739,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6040,158 +5860,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
+ "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27785714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7221428571428572,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.467,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5329999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6199,86 +5879,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.309,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6299,66 +5899,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2963636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7036363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6379,306 +5919,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.113,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24600000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.754,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07416666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9258333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.158,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.842,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.155,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.845,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.025,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.975,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.827,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.789,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.750909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7709999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2290000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3463636363636363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6536363636363637,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6720,18 +5960,78 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.07416666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.9258333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6740,22 +6040,82 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
+ "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
+ "probability": 0.827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.155,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.845,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.217,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.783,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.750909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -6780,18 +6140,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.198,
+ "probability": 0.025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.802,
+ "probability": 0.975,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6799,6 +6159,106 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3463636363636363,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6536363636363637,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.958,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.27785714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7221428571428572,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6818,5 +6278,545 @@
"numforecasts": 12,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.198,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.802,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.467,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5329999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.34375,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.158,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.842,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.113,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.887,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.309,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2963636363636364,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7036363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3346153846153846,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6653846153846155,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.413,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.587,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.261,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.739,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7709999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2290000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5690909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4309090909090909,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.789,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.24600000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.754,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
index db040e0..0b277d3 100644
--- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
+++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
@@ -3,16 +3,16 @@
"title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
+ "description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -119,12 +119,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -186,12 +186,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -215,22 +215,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 November 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -249,12 +249,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -278,12 +278,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -293,12 +293,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -312,7 +312,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "The Games will begin",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -322,7 +322,7 @@
},
{
"name": "The Games will be cancelled",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -399,12 +399,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
- "probability": 0.57,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -457,12 +457,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
index ef719ed..81ca094 100644
--- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
+++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
@@ -7,17 +7,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "numforecasters": "31",
+ "numforecasts": "47",
+ "numforecasters": "37",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -33,27 +33,27 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.56,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "numforecasters": "47",
+ "numforecasts": "67",
+ "numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -74,27 +74,27 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "32",
- "numforecasters": "29",
+ "numforecasts": "38",
+ "numforecasters": "35",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -114,8 +114,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "37",
- "numforecasters": "33",
+ "numforecasts": "40",
+ "numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -131,17 +131,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -155,7 +155,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "47",
+ "numforecasts": "48",
"numforecasters": "34",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -172,21 +172,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "90",
+ "numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -207,7 +207,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "42",
+ "numforecasts": "44",
"numforecasters": "32",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -219,17 +219,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 150,000",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.37,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -248,34 +248,34 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "103",
- "numforecasters": "52",
+ "numforecasts": "113",
+ "numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\n",
+ "description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.\nNOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click \"Export\" for file download options).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 15,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -309,7 +309,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "81",
"numforecasters": "35",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -331,17 +331,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -370,8 +370,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "193",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "210",
+ "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -412,17 +412,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -436,8 +436,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "280",
- "numforecasters": "109",
+ "numforecasts": "305",
+ "numforecasters": "112",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -453,17 +453,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -497,8 +497,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "175",
- "numforecasters": "61",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
+ "numforecasters": "62",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -518,7 +518,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "121",
+ "numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "71",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -530,12 +530,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -544,8 +544,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "numforecasters": "38",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
+ "numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -556,17 +556,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "437",
- "numforecasters": "344",
+ "numforecasts": "453",
+ "numforecasters": "352",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -582,7 +582,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 4 and 8",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -592,7 +592,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -601,8 +601,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "321",
- "numforecasters": "247",
+ "numforecasts": "329",
+ "numforecasters": "251",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -613,17 +613,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "334",
- "numforecasters": "298",
+ "numforecasts": "344",
+ "numforecasters": "304",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -643,8 +643,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "198",
- "numforecasters": "174",
+ "numforecasts": "202",
+ "numforecasters": "177",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -655,7 +655,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 8,000,000",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -665,7 +665,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -679,8 +679,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "230",
- "numforecasters": "175",
+ "numforecasts": "238",
+ "numforecasters": "178",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -696,12 +696,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.89,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -715,7 +715,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "62",
+ "numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "24",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -732,7 +732,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.66,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -742,7 +742,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -751,8 +751,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "143",
- "numforecasters": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "146",
+ "numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -787,7 +787,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "107",
+ "numforecasts": "109",
"numforecasters": "48",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -813,8 +813,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "109",
- "numforecasters": "52",
+ "numforecasts": "115",
+ "numforecasters": "53",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -839,8 +839,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "437",
- "numforecasters": "311",
+ "numforecasts": "447",
+ "numforecasters": "314",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -881,8 +881,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "147",
- "numforecasters": "72",
+ "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -893,17 +893,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "177",
- "numforecasters": "72",
+ "numforecasts": "180",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -923,7 +923,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "87",
"numforecasters": "50",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -944,7 +944,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "191",
+ "numforecasts": "193",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -965,8 +965,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "166",
- "numforecasters": "132",
+ "numforecasts": "168",
+ "numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -977,7 +977,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, only SpaceX",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -992,12 +992,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "159",
- "numforecasters": "114",
+ "numforecasts": "165",
+ "numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1017,7 +1017,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "149",
+ "numforecasts": "150",
"numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1070,17 +1070,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "141",
- "numforecasters": "84",
+ "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1100,8 +1100,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "106",
- "numforecasters": "70",
+ "numforecasts": "108",
+ "numforecasters": "71",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1121,7 +1121,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "258",
+ "numforecasts": "262",
"numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1133,12 +1133,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1152,7 +1152,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "232",
+ "numforecasts": "234",
"numforecasters": "139",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1188,7 +1188,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "138",
+ "numforecasts": "139",
"numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1247,17 +1247,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "193",
- "numforecasters": "83",
+ "numforecasts": "196",
+ "numforecasters": "84",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1298,15 +1298,15 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "236",
- "numforecasters": "138",
+ "numforecasts": "238",
+ "numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -1319,7 +1319,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "349",
+ "numforecasts": "353",
"numforecasters": "190",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1346,16 +1346,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.68,
+ "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "336",
+ "numforecasts": "344",
"numforecasters": "71",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1367,17 +1367,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "7 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 8 and 14",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15 and 21",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1391,7 +1391,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "369",
+ "numforecasts": "387",
"numforecasters": "102",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1412,7 +1412,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasts": "152",
"numforecasters": "112",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1433,7 +1433,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "244",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1485,7 +1485,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "164",
+ "numforecasts": "165",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1511,7 +1511,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "74",
"numforecasters": "35",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1537,7 +1537,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "170",
+ "numforecasts": "171",
"numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1558,7 +1558,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "94",
+ "numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1594,7 +1594,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "221",
+ "numforecasts": "223",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1653,17 +1653,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "258",
- "numforecasters": "133",
+ "numforecasts": "260",
+ "numforecasters": "134",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1674,17 +1674,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "240",
- "numforecasters": "89",
+ "numforecasts": "243",
+ "numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1704,7 +1704,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "105",
+ "numforecasts": "106",
"numforecasters": "37",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1742,7 +1742,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1752,11 +1752,11 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "203",
+ "numforecasts": "204",
"numforecasters": "106",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1764,16 +1764,16 @@
"title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3a59565b48535c53595b4e535554497a5d55555e504f5e5d575f544e1459555705494f58505f594e076b4f5f494e5355541f080a79565b48535c53595b4e535554). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n",
+ "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7d1e111c0f141b141e1c091412130e3d1a1212191708191a10181309531e1210420e081f17181e09402c08180e09141213584f4d3e111c0f141b141e1c09141213). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicaragua",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "St. Lucia",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1782,8 +1782,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "172",
- "numforecasters": "117",
+ "numforecasts": "178",
+ "numforecasters": "119",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1818,7 +1818,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "259",
+ "numforecasts": "260",
"numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1851,12 +1851,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1865,8 +1865,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "326",
- "numforecasters": "140",
+ "numforecasts": "327",
+ "numforecasters": "141",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1912,7 +1912,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "166",
+ "numforecasts": "167",
"numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1945,12 +1945,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1959,7 +1959,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "453",
+ "numforecasts": "454",
"numforecasters": "194",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1990,7 +1990,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "417",
+ "numforecasts": "420",
"numforecasters": "211",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2053,7 +2053,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasts": "281",
"numforecasters": "102",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2074,7 +2074,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "416",
+ "numforecasts": "417",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2204,7 +2204,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "390",
+ "numforecasts": "394",
"numforecasters": "204",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2216,17 +2216,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "103",
- "numforecasters": "59",
+ "numforecasts": "106",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2246,7 +2246,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "76",
"numforecasters": "31",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2263,12 +2263,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2282,7 +2282,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "246",
+ "numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2313,7 +2313,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "126",
+ "numforecasts": "128",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2334,8 +2334,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "419",
- "numforecasters": "198",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
+ "numforecasters": "199",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2375,7 +2375,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "195",
+ "numforecasts": "197",
"numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2396,10 +2396,46 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "543",
+ "numforecasts": "548",
"numforecasters": "198",
"stars": 3
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.\nNOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Less than 5.0%",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive",
+ "probability": 0.36,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "More than 8.0%",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "537",
+ "numforecasters": "247",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
{
"title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021",
@@ -2432,8 +2468,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1663",
- "numforecasters": "578",
+ "numforecasts": "1678",
+ "numforecasters": "581",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2463,8 +2499,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "507",
- "numforecasters": "214",
+ "numforecasts": "508",
+ "numforecasters": "215",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2484,8 +2520,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "320",
- "numforecasters": "201",
+ "numforecasts": "321",
+ "numforecasters": "202",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2505,8 +2541,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "517",
- "numforecasters": "232",
+ "numforecasts": "521",
+ "numforecasters": "234",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2547,7 +2583,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "316",
+ "numforecasts": "317",
"numforecasters": "185",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2568,7 +2604,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "308",
+ "numforecasts": "310",
"numforecasters": "165",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2604,7 +2640,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "293",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2630,8 +2666,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "194",
- "numforecasters": "113",
+ "numforecasts": "199",
+ "numforecasters": "115",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2651,7 +2687,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "229",
+ "numforecasts": "230",
"numforecasters": "58",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2693,7 +2729,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "268",
+ "numforecasts": "269",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2729,7 +2765,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1402",
+ "numforecasts": "1407",
"numforecasters": "204",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2750,7 +2786,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "284",
+ "numforecasts": "285",
"numforecasters": "63",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2807,7 +2843,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasts": "152",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2864,7 +2900,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "543",
+ "numforecasts": "547",
"numforecasters": "151",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2885,7 +2921,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "726",
+ "numforecasts": "729",
"numforecasters": "156",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2897,22 +2933,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.00%",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2921,8 +2957,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "460",
- "numforecasters": "213",
+ "numforecasts": "468",
+ "numforecasters": "217",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2957,7 +2993,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "465",
+ "numforecasts": "467",
"numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2988,7 +3024,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "450",
+ "numforecasts": "452",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3030,7 +3066,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "411",
+ "numforecasts": "412",
"numforecasters": "159",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3076,7 +3112,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "341",
+ "numforecasts": "342",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3112,7 +3148,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "677",
+ "numforecasts": "680",
"numforecasters": "200",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3133,8 +3169,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1140",
- "numforecasters": "452",
+ "numforecasts": "1144",
+ "numforecasters": "453",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3175,7 +3211,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "328",
+ "numforecasts": "329",
"numforecasters": "153",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3196,7 +3232,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "709",
+ "numforecasts": "711",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3232,7 +3268,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "832",
+ "numforecasts": "836",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3353,16 +3389,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "266",
+ "numforecasts": "271",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3398,7 +3434,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "368",
+ "numforecasts": "369",
"numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3429,7 +3465,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "292",
+ "numforecasts": "295",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3465,7 +3501,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "274",
+ "numforecasts": "275",
"numforecasters": "78",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3496,15 +3532,15 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "836",
- "numforecasters": "286",
+ "numforecasts": "844",
+ "numforecasters": "291",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#46252a27342f202f2527322f29283506212929222c3322212b2328326825292b793533242c2325327b17332335322f2928637476052a27342f202f2527322f2928). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3525,7 +3561,7 @@
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#82e1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedecf1c2e5edede6e8f7e6e5efe7ecf6ace1edefbdf1f7e0e8e7e1f6bfd3f7e7f1f6ebedeca7b0b2c1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedec). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3538,7 +3574,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "636",
+ "numforecasts": "638",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3591,21 +3627,21 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.0 million",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "251",
+ "numforecasts": "253",
"numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3649,7 +3685,7 @@
"title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#35565954475c535c5654415c5a5b4675525a5a515f40515258505b411b565a580a4640575f5056410864405046415c5a5b100705765954475c535c5654415c5a5b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 2.5 million",
@@ -3677,7 +3713,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1166",
+ "numforecasts": "1170",
"numforecasters": "173",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3685,7 +3721,7 @@
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, the Olympics only",
@@ -3699,24 +3735,24 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1977",
- "numforecasters": "815",
+ "numforecasts": "1994",
+ "numforecasters": "823",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3729,7 +3765,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "240",
+ "numforecasts": "241",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3737,7 +3773,7 @@
"title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3750,7 +3786,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1063",
+ "numforecasts": "1065",
"numforecasters": "462",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3813,24 +3849,24 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 40,000",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "282",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "284",
+ "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#05666964776c636c6664716c6a6b7645626a6a616f70616268606b712b666a683a7670676f6066713854706076716c6a6b203735466964776c636c6664716c6a6b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
@@ -3874,7 +3910,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "186",
+ "numforecasts": "189",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3891,12 +3927,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3910,7 +3946,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "281",
+ "numforecasts": "282",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3946,7 +3982,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "426",
+ "numforecasts": "427",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3967,7 +4003,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "265",
+ "numforecasts": "266",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3988,7 +4024,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "301",
+ "numforecasts": "302",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
}
diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json
index 5fd2094..764306b 100644
--- a/data/hypermind-questions.json
+++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json
@@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.6037735849056604,
+ "probability": 0.6153846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.11320754716981131,
+ "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.2358490566037736,
+ "probability": 0.22115384615384617,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
+ "probability": 0.04807692307692307,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -194,17 +194,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
- "probability": 0.9223300970873787,
+ "probability": 0.9117647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Later in 2021",
- "probability": 0.05825242718446602,
+ "probability": 0.06862745098039215,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not in 2021",
- "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
+ "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0.010101010101010102,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.11111111111111112,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.26262626262626265,
+ "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.37373737373737376,
+ "probability": 0.36633663366336633,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.24242424242424243,
+ "probability": 0.28712871287128716,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -387,12 +387,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -523,7 +523,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.4476190476190476,
+ "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -533,7 +533,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.2476190476190476,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -571,17 +571,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.504950495049505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -595,32 +595,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.19626168224299065,
+ "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.6542056074766356,
+ "probability": 0.660377358490566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.10280373831775702,
+ "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -634,27 +634,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.31683168316831684,
+ "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
+ "probability": 0.1238095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
+ "probability": 0.15238095238095237,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.3465346534653465,
+ "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -668,22 +668,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.02752293577981652,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.6422018348623854,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.25688073394495414,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.07339449541284404,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -697,22 +697,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -788,12 +788,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -807,12 +807,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.94,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
index cbf2359..2d150d2 100644
--- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
+++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
@@ -1407,22 +1407,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.1569111315319408,
+ "probability": 0.22909090909090907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.1448410444910223,
+ "probability": 0.1309090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
- "probability": 0.1344952555988064,
+ "probability": 0.1309090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
- "probability": 0.5637525683782305,
+ "probability": 0.509090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1779,6 +1779,39 @@
],
"stars": 2
},
+ {
+ "title": "Hartlepool By-election: To Win",
+ "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+ "platform": "Ladbrokes",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Conservatives",
+ "probability": 0.5261973798876447,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Labour",
+ "probability": 0.4334864129550597,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Liberal Democrats",
+ "probability": 0.0045289625234110715,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Reform UK",
+ "probability": 0.02677416080016545,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Northern Independence Party",
+ "probability": 0.009013083833719062,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
@@ -2408,12 +2441,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
- "probability": 0.625,
+ "probability": 0.6076923076923076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
- "probability": 0.375,
+ "probability": 0.39230769230769225,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json
index bb03cdb..523a4c4 100644
--- a/data/metaculus-questions.json
+++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json
@@ -55,6 +55,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 129,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
@@ -81,21 +111,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 129,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
@@ -126,58 +141,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
@@ -195,7 +158,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
+ "numforecasts": 102,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
@@ -236,7 +199,7 @@
}
],
"description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 72,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
@@ -246,44 +209,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
+ "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "numforecasts": 141,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -303,7 +240,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n",
- "numforecasts": 287,
+ "numforecasts": 288,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z",
@@ -313,18 +250,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
+ "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
+ "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -343,29 +306,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
+ "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
+ "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -385,7 +348,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
+ "numforecasts": 125,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
@@ -410,18 +373,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 185,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -439,32 +413,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
@@ -480,6 +428,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
@@ -495,47 +469,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
@@ -578,33 +511,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
+ "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 240,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -623,29 +541,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "numforecasts": 548,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -705,18 +612,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
+ "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
+ "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 13,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -745,6 +652,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
@@ -869,55 +791,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
+ "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 99,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -935,6 +831,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 86,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/",
@@ -961,36 +872,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
@@ -1007,59 +888,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
+ "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
+ "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 13,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1094,7 +934,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
+ "numforecasts": 133,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
@@ -1103,36 +943,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
@@ -1149,29 +959,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
+ "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1180,7 +979,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1190,70 +989,81 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
+ "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 64,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.28,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.72,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1272,111 +1082,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
+ "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
+ "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/",
+ "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 141,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 292,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1395,29 +1138,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
+ "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
+ "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1436,48 +1179,59 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
+ "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
+ "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 100,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
+ "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "numforecasts": 45,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 95,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/",
+ "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
+ "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 64,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1506,28 +1260,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
+ "numforecasts": 59,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
@@ -1537,74 +1276,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
+ "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
+ "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
+ "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 337,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 294,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1649,81 +1358,126 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/",
+ "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n",
- "numforecasts": 510,
+ "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 2663,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 168,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
- "numforecasts": 385,
+ "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1757,89 +1511,96 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
+ "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
+ "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 147,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/",
+ "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.81,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n",
+ "numforecasts": 155,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 156,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1869,18 +1630,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
+ "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1952,7 +1724,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
+ "numforecasts": 77,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1962,29 +1734,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2017,21 +1778,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
@@ -2058,6 +1804,585 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 105,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 33,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 34,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.53,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.47,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 46,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 48,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 297,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 337,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 294,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n",
+ "numforecasts": 510,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 385,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 156,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 143,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 105,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
@@ -2088,6 +2413,88 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 398,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
@@ -2103,47 +2510,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
@@ -2171,29 +2537,96 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
+ "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 150,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 135,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.34,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. \nA “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. \n“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.\nGiving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.\nIt also urges approval of more vaccines.\nWill the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?\nThis question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:\n--- \nApproval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines\n--- \nHalf dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nDelaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nGiving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19\n",
+ "numforecasts": 244,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-08T00:13:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T23:13:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2211,21 +2644,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/",
@@ -2256,6 +2674,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 69,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
@@ -2271,6 +2704,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 518,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 33,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
@@ -2312,6 +2775,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
@@ -2368,6 +2846,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.54,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 969,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/",
@@ -2394,32 +2898,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
@@ -2435,36 +2913,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
@@ -2481,33 +2929,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/",
+ "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2536,43 +2969,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -2581,21 +2984,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/",
@@ -2611,6 +2999,77 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
@@ -2667,47 +3126,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
- "numforecasts": 398,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
@@ -2724,29 +3142,189 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
+ "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 342,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.54,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 379,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 195,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "World Population in 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 312,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.19,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.81,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2755,7 +3333,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "numforecasts": 211,
+ "numforecasts": 212,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
@@ -2765,33 +3343,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.24,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.76,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 249,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2862,59 +3436,89 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
+ "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 321,
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
+ "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
+ "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 92,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2943,32 +3547,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
@@ -2995,32 +3573,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. \nA “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. \n“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.\nGiving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.\nIt also urges approval of more vaccines.\nWill the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?\nThis question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:\n--- \nApproval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines\n--- \nHalf dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nDelaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines\n--- \nGiving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19\n",
- "numforecasts": 244,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-08T00:13:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T23:13:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
@@ -3047,6 +3599,92 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 131,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 167,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 34,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
@@ -3062,6 +3700,88 @@
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 146,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 131,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
@@ -3170,21 +3890,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
@@ -3192,17 +3897,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1139,
+ "numforecasts": 1143,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
@@ -3226,36 +3931,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 518,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
@@ -3283,18 +3958,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
+ "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.31,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.69,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3368,6 +4054,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 68,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/",
@@ -3398,6 +4099,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.29,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.71,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 588,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
@@ -3413,32 +4155,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 968,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
@@ -3486,7 +4202,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
+ "numforecasts": 205,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
@@ -3495,21 +4211,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
@@ -3525,6 +4226,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
@@ -3570,32 +4286,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
@@ -3612,74 +4302,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 342,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/",
+ "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3697,203 +4383,6 @@
"resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 379,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "numforecasts": 553,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "World Population in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 312,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
@@ -3910,44 +4399,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
+ "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 228,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3992,55 +4455,48 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
+ "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 240,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
+ "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 249,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4084,6 +4540,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
@@ -4162,6 +4644,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 445,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/",
@@ -4292,21 +4815,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
@@ -4323,44 +4831,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is <= $1.045mm\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
+ "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 280,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4378,51 +4871,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/",
@@ -4453,6 +4901,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 778,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-05-24T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
@@ -4480,44 +4954,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
+ "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
+ "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4547,100 +4995,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
+ "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
+ "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4659,44 +5025,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/",
+ "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
+ "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 125,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4725,32 +5065,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/",
@@ -4818,6 +5132,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 225,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
@@ -4859,32 +5203,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&mc=true&node=pt47.1.18&rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/",
@@ -4911,21 +5229,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
@@ -4941,47 +5244,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 587,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
@@ -5008,36 +5270,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
@@ -5054,29 +5286,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 152,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5094,99 +5315,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 475,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
@@ -5202,21 +5330,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/",
@@ -5244,48 +5357,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
+ "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/",
+ "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 19,
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-21T21:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T21:58:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5315,18 +5413,55 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+ "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 574,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5355,6 +5490,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
@@ -5411,6 +5572,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n",
+ "numforecasts": 185,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
@@ -5426,32 +5628,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
@@ -5478,73 +5654,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 452,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
@@ -5571,32 +5680,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 440,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
@@ -5649,752 +5732,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
- "numforecasts": 280,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n",
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 777,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-24T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-05-24T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 399,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-21T21:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T21:58:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n",
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
- "numforecasts": 501,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -6430,33 +5774,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will PHP die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
+ "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
+ "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
+ "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.82,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 202,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -6489,6 +5870,529 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 176,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 188,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 86,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 147,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 95,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 92,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 69,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (\"Core CPI\") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.\nThe \"Core CPI\" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).\nWill the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?\nThis question resolves \"yes\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" rises above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\nThis question resolves \"no\" if the 12-month \"Core CPI\" does not rise above 3.0% by 31st of December 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 297,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 222,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 193,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.78,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 501,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
+ "numforecasts": 104,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will PHP die?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
@@ -6531,33 +6435,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
+ "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.050000000000000044,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 468,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -6566,7 +6466,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "numforecasts": 123,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
@@ -6576,12 +6476,12 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
+ "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 468,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -6605,51 +6505,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will One Piece end?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/",
@@ -6672,17 +6527,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
+ "numforecasts": 86,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
@@ -6691,32 +6546,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1312,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/",
@@ -6732,6 +6561,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.93,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/",
@@ -6747,47 +6617,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
@@ -6804,18 +6633,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 168,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -6844,13 +6684,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
@@ -6859,21 +6714,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
@@ -6901,18 +6741,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
+ "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 357,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -6930,62 +6781,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
@@ -7012,21 +6807,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
@@ -7053,6 +6833,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 112,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
@@ -7080,55 +6886,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
+ "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 1108,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.07999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -7187,13 +6971,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -7202,6 +7001,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 297,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/",
@@ -7218,156 +7043,59 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
+ "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
+ "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 458,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
+ "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
- "numforecasts": 20,
+ "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
- "numforecasts": 357,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
- "numforecasts": 112,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
+ "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
+ "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 199,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -7387,7 +7115,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
+ "numforecasts": 69,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
@@ -7397,18 +7125,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
+ "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
+ "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -7452,6 +7180,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 242,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
@@ -7478,6 +7232,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.78,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 1114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 210,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 402,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
@@ -7493,6 +7303,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 183,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2250-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
@@ -7519,6 +7344,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 2693,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
@@ -7534,6 +7385,73 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
+ "numforecasts": 554,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
@@ -7549,6 +7467,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 168,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 188,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
@@ -7575,6 +7549,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 160,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
@@ -7642,6 +7646,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.68,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn.\nThe proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest.\nIn order to pass the cut to aid, [an act of parliament is required](https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/uk-aid-cuts-to-be-enshrined-in-law-ministers-concede/), while the large majority held by the Conservative Party makes a defeat unlikely, the discontent surrounding the bill makes it at least possible. There has been some discussion from Effective Altruists about exerting pressure in this direction, see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a5qSgWBLRsicYFRFm/gbp4bn-for-the-global-poor-the-uk-s-0-7) for more.\nWill the UK government suceed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?\nResolves positively if, before 2021/04/01, a bill is passed in parliament cutting the amount of international aid provided by the UK from its current level of 0.7% of GNI.\nThis question will close immediately before the parliamentary vote on any qualifying bill.\nIf the cut in aid is temporary, with a reversal to 0.7% or greater written in to law, it still counts as a cut for the purposes of resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 150,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-04T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/",
@@ -7698,6 +7728,114 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 503,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1316,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 202,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 272,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
@@ -7724,6 +7862,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 324,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
@@ -7739,6 +7892,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 168,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
@@ -7765,6 +7933,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.42,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
+ "numforecasts": 561,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Russia become a democracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/",
@@ -7795,6 +7989,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
@@ -8015,32 +8235,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "numforecasts": 220,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -8134,17 +8328,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "numforecasts": 41,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8287,17 +8481,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 353,
+ "numforecasts": 355,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8398,7 +8592,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1063,
+ "numforecasts": 1065,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
@@ -8480,7 +8674,7 @@
}
],
"description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1106,
+ "numforecasts": 1107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
@@ -8670,7 +8864,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 705,
+ "numforecasts": 711,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8801,7 +8995,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8832,17 +9026,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
+ "probability": 0.030000000000000027,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
+ "numforecasts": 138,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8937,21 +9131,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/",
@@ -8967,6 +9146,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
@@ -9003,7 +9197,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
+ "numforecasts": 53,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -9012,32 +9206,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
@@ -9208,7 +9376,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 677,
+ "numforecasts": 683,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -9238,7 +9406,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 430,
+ "numforecasts": 431,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
@@ -9615,7 +9783,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "numforecasts": 80,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -9721,21 +9889,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 81,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
@@ -9966,7 +10119,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
- "numforecasts": 434,
+ "numforecasts": 437,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
@@ -10135,17 +10288,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
+ "numforecasts": 206,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
@@ -10195,32 +10348,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/",
@@ -10309,7 +10436,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n",
- "numforecasts": 423,
+ "numforecasts": 424,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z",
@@ -10415,6 +10542,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 681,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/",
@@ -10445,21 +10587,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 680,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/",
@@ -10548,7 +10675,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
- "numforecasts": 169,
+ "numforecasts": 170,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
@@ -10850,7 +10977,7 @@
}
],
"description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n",
- "numforecasts": 421,
+ "numforecasts": 422,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
@@ -11265,17 +11392,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "numforecasts": 86,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -11563,17 +11690,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
+ "numforecasts": 132,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
@@ -11649,21 +11776,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index November 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5020/industrial-production-index-in-november-2020/)\n[Industrial Production Index December 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5021/industrial-production-index-december-2020/)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-26T14:26:19Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-20T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-16T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/",
@@ -11727,17 +11839,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 139,
+ "numforecasts": 151,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -11768,17 +11880,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
+ "numforecasts": 103,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z",
@@ -11880,39 +11992,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
+ "numforecasts": 139,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
@@ -11942,7 +12028,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
+ "numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -12534,7 +12620,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 463,
+ "numforecasts": 464,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
@@ -12699,17 +12785,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
+ "numforecasts": 77,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -12754,7 +12840,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "numforecasts": 145,
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
@@ -12784,7 +12870,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -12793,6 +12879,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 48,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/",
@@ -12808,21 +12909,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/",
@@ -13265,7 +13351,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n",
- "numforecasts": 182,
+ "numforecasts": 183,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
@@ -13440,7 +13526,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
+ "numforecasts": 137,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
@@ -13695,6 +13781,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 175,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
@@ -13712,7 +13813,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
@@ -13721,21 +13822,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
@@ -14001,6 +14087,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
@@ -14018,7 +14119,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 578,
+ "numforecasts": 584,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
@@ -14027,21 +14128,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
@@ -14098,6 +14184,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-31T19:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 50,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T11:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/",
@@ -14115,7 +14216,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
+ "numforecasts": 92,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -14124,21 +14225,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
@@ -14842,7 +14928,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
+ "numforecasts": 150,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z",
@@ -14866,21 +14952,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 194,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/",
@@ -14902,7 +14973,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
+ "numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
@@ -15275,7 +15346,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
+ "numforecasts": 241,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -15551,7 +15622,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
+ "numforecasts": 51,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
@@ -15786,7 +15857,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 73,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
@@ -16183,6 +16254,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-30T20:33:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 557,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T21:50:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:50:34Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
@@ -16198,32 +16295,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
- "numforecasts": 556,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T21:50:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:50:34Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
@@ -16865,7 +16936,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 147,
+ "numforecasts": 149,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
@@ -16962,7 +17033,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
+ "numforecasts": 44,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -17275,7 +17346,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 276,
+ "numforecasts": 279,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
@@ -17398,7 +17469,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n",
- "numforecasts": 467,
+ "numforecasts": 468,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z",
@@ -17463,21 +17534,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
@@ -17485,17 +17541,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "numforecasts": 197,
+ "numforecasts": 198,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
@@ -17504,6 +17560,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
@@ -18160,17 +18231,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 272,
+ "numforecasts": 278,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
@@ -18339,17 +18410,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
+ "numforecasts": 200,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
@@ -19222,7 +19293,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 5084,
+ "numforecasts": 5091,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
@@ -20472,7 +20543,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
+ "numforecasts": 109,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
@@ -22229,17 +22300,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -22632,6 +22703,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 229,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
@@ -22658,21 +22744,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
@@ -23580,21 +23651,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
@@ -23829,7 +23885,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
- "numforecasts": 170,
+ "numforecasts": 171,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
@@ -23965,21 +24021,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
- "numforecasts": 182,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2250-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
@@ -24765,7 +24806,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -25099,32 +25140,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
@@ -25155,6 +25170,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
@@ -25441,7 +25482,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 400,
+ "numforecasts": 401,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
@@ -25495,32 +25536,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-06-12T13:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn.\nThe proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest.\nIn order to pass the cut to aid, [an act of parliament is required](https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/uk-aid-cuts-to-be-enshrined-in-law-ministers-concede/), while the large majority held by the Conservative Party makes a defeat unlikely, the discontent surrounding the bill makes it at least possible. There has been some discussion from Effective Altruists about exerting pressure in this direction, see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a5qSgWBLRsicYFRFm/gbp4bn-for-the-global-poor-the-uk-s-0-7) for more.\nWill the UK government suceed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?\nResolves positively if, before 2021/04/01, a bill is passed in parliament cutting the amount of international aid provided by the UK from its current level of 0.7% of GNI.\nThis question will close immediately before the parliamentary vote on any qualifying bill.\nIf the cut in aid is temporary, with a reversal to 0.7% or greater written in to law, it still counts as a cut for the purposes of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
@@ -27202,6 +27217,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 190,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
@@ -27247,21 +27277,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
@@ -27514,7 +27529,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1351,
+ "numforecasts": 1352,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
@@ -27616,21 +27631,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6473/-sn501-in-us-for-week-of-1-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nAccording to data from the recently launched [CoVariants.org](https://covariants.org/), the three variants in question — B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 — are [steadily increasing as a proportion of overall sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the US](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). \nThe proportion of S:N501 among all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database in the US for the week of 2021-01-11 (2021-01-11 to 2021-01-17, inclusive) was [0.05, or 5%](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). Note that data for previous weeks are backfilled with sequences uploaded at later dates, so these percentages might change slightly over time — in other words, there is a lag between sequence collection and sequence upload.\nIn response to an increased incidence of S:N501 variants, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, further focus on contact tracing, and increase the rate of genomic sequencing.\nData sources and more information:\n---[Distribution of S:N501 per country](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) \n---[CoVariants](https://covariants.org/) \n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \n---[S gene dropout patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests suggest spread of the H69del/V70del mutation in the US](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248814v1.full.pdf) \n---[Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends](https://www.helix.com/pages/helix-covid-19-surveillance-dashboard) \nWhat will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-01 and 2021-03-07 (inclusive), as displayed on the \"Distribution of S:N501 per country\" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-03-15.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-15T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/",
@@ -28070,7 +28070,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
+ "numforecasts": 162,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
diff --git a/data/omen-questions.json b/data/omen-questions.json
index 77b5db8..34cc3a3 100644
--- a/data/omen-questions.json
+++ b/data/omen-questions.json
@@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3054643135991191,
+ "probability": 0.32447474726652153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6945356864008809,
+ "probability": 0.6755252527334784,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json
index 4707cd3..e30273d 100644
--- a/data/polymarket-questions.json
+++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json
@@ -1,24 +1,4 @@
[
- {
- "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8210843425606883932577026603711056",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1789156574393116067422973396288944",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "86",
- "stars": 4
- },
{
"title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021",
@@ -27,36 +7,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04230439517024041202188761379533177",
+ "probability": "0.04370182432456576988928154888546837",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9576956048297595879781123862046682",
+ "probability": "0.9562981756754342301107184511145316",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "136",
+ "numforecasts": "141",
"stars": 3
},
{
- "title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1",
+ "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.590714245983359374033906060938728",
+ "probability": "0.1934946039826556687210229849332036",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.409285754016640625966093939061272",
+ "probability": "0.8065053960173443312789770150667964",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1098",
+ "numforecasts": "109",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -67,37 +47,48 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9404923421274491912575869598563209",
+ "probability": "0.93969077074312079300852328223358",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.05950765787255080874241304014367906",
+ "probability": "0.06030922925687920699147671776642001",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1211",
+ "numforecasts": "1245",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "outcomes": [
+ "Yes",
+ "No"
+ ],
+ "options": []
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.9000917694479315732807625228160966",
+ "name": "Bezos",
+ "probability": "0.6706007725723407971118622145171625",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.0999082305520684267192374771839034",
+ "name": "Musk",
+ "probability": "0.3293992274276592028881377854828375",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "746",
- "stars": 3
+ "numforecasts": "94",
+ "stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
@@ -110,46 +101,6 @@
],
"options": []
},
- {
- "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2653722700132592071193972157990358",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7346277299867407928806027842009642",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "98",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Bezos",
- "probability": "0.7298930612036890560025667805575824",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Musk",
- "probability": "0.2701069387963109439974332194424176",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "85",
- "stars": 4
- },
{
"title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021",
@@ -158,16 +109,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.35432149199383195961631776417634",
+ "probability": "0.3624685664431505215185183055911118",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.64567850800616804038368223582366",
+ "probability": "0.6375314335568494784814816944088882",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "821",
+ "numforecasts": "847",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
+ "address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36",
+ "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "outcomes": [
+ "Yes",
+ "No"
+ ],
+ "options": []
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.5334554631862323402820807933319699",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.4665445368137676597179192066680301",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "195",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -178,56 +160,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01154405211189743827135156638705084",
+ "probability": "0.009883483868312364959358354119723674",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9884559478881025617286484336129492",
+ "probability": "0.9901165161316876350406416458802763",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "3810",
+ "numforecasts": "3847",
"stars": 3
},
{
- "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
+ "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3992180768566974816348527785427362",
+ "probability": "0.719850923592054496298680049174087",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6007819231433025183651472214572638",
+ "probability": "0.280149076407945503701319950825913",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5186374815653130703780627007855618",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4813625184346869296219372992144382",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "180",
+ "numforecasts": "54",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -238,18 +200,38 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05235204328927104384398080690325785",
+ "probability": "0.05012065833654499591695567341102339",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9476479567107289561560191930967421",
+ "probability": "0.9498793416634550040830443265889766",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "460",
+ "numforecasts": "490",
"stars": 3
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.5770169935621389802193058406202036",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.4229830064378610197806941593797964",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "511",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
@@ -258,76 +240,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7645639315269544210625576398861445",
+ "probability": "0.7276668169911683398097118967867872",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2354360684730455789374423601138555",
+ "probability": "0.2723331830088316601902881032132128",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "186",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.08639576439906160345569679883924252",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9136042356009383965443032011607575",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "296",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07912744676147613200988215797057122",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9208725532385238679901178420294288",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6378336067386002818693056840263355",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3621663932613997181306943159736645",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "4879",
+ "numforecasts": "209",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -338,57 +260,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1710012762395096492854638276142472",
+ "probability": "0.1249616481551395062886539344923381",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8289987237604903507145361723857528",
+ "probability": "0.8750383518448604937113460655076619",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "39",
+ "numforecasts": "47",
"stars": 4
},
{
- "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
+ "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.580310119601644467086386388930093",
+ "probability": "0.08259787410691690061287893351053922",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.419689880398355532913613611069907",
+ "probability": "0.9174021258930830993871210664894608",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "408",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2369102904781910210045405816592945",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7630897095218089789954594183407055",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "1264",
- "stars": 4
+ "numforecasts": "298",
+ "stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
@@ -398,41 +300,152 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
- "probability": "0.3822268185332019571567270535991622",
+ "probability": "0.3500003620826511607920533084438381",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
- "probability": "0.4841158144450835226246633130930288",
+ "probability": "0.51451285463340818053806694975702",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
- "probability": "0.1336573670217145202186096333078089",
+ "probability": "0.1354867832839406586698797417991419",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "129",
+ "numforecasts": "143",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.07912778821948962977238564057112765",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.9208722117805103702276143594288724",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "63",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.001051940649472768178218571021399585",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.9989480593505272318217814289786004",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1732",
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.6181001610258899706713743885934304",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.3818998389741100293286256114065696",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "4984",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Less than 80",
+ "probability": "0.3405166665208588557030405261550704",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "81-95",
+ "probability": "0.2069257779675633066754996274438289",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "96-110",
+ "probability": "0.1634832414861564553275933427922908",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "111-125",
+ "probability": "0.1235110987017487763250162114444212",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "126-140",
+ "probability": "0.08248548304886138067830916935318297",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "More than 140",
+ "probability": "0.08307773227481122529054112281120574",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "81",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "outcomes": [
+ "Yes",
+ "No"
+ ],
+ "options": []
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05895633696239021853329046475585481",
+ "probability": "0.4854328413848816857344594320279314",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9410436630376097814667095352441452",
+ "probability": "0.5145671586151183142655405679720686",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "73",
- "stars": 3
+ "numforecasts": "36",
+ "stars": 4
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json
index e008f8b..9016823 100644
--- a/data/predictit-questions.json
+++ b/data/predictit-questions.json
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.6699029126213591,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.3300970873786408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -25,22 +25,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5192307692307693,
+ "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4423076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.4380952380952381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54,12 +54,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
+ "probability": 0.5445544554455446,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4653465346534653,
+ "probability": 0.45544554455445546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -92,47 +92,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "22 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
- "probability": 0.29090909090909095,
+ "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
- "probability": 0.6454545454545455,
+ "probability": 0.6320754716981132,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909092,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -146,12 +146,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -203,12 +203,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -222,12 +222,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -279,72 +279,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.4666666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.47826086956521735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.22499999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.23478260869565215,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.07499999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.06956521739130433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666665,
+ "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.043478260869565216,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
+ "name": "Shaun Donovan",
+ "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Dianne Morales",
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Paperboy Prince",
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -434,12 +439,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -491,12 +496,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -510,12 +515,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -578,12 +583,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -616,7 +621,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -645,12 +650,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -664,52 +669,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "23 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24 or 25",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26 or 27",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28 or 29",
- "probability": 0.3465346534653465,
+ "probability": 0.36792452830188677,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or 31",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "32 or 33",
- "probability": 0.13861386138613863,
+ "probability": 0.1320754716981132,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36 or 37",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or more",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -723,12 +728,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -742,82 +747,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.4454545454545453,
+ "probability": 0.48623853211009166,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.29090909090909084,
+ "probability": 0.2568807339449541,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.04545454545454544,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.04545454545454544,
+ "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.04545454545454544,
+ "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727264,
+ "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Robert Habeck",
+ "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.018181818181818177,
+ "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.009090909090909089,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -894,82 +899,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.23853211009174305,
+ "probability": 0.23364485981308405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.13761467889908252,
+ "probability": 0.15887850467289716,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.09174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.10280373831775698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.09174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.09345794392523363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
+ "probability": 0.05607476635514017,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.05504587155963301,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
+ "probability": 0.05607476635514017,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
+ "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Tom Cotton",
+ "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Marco Rubio",
+ "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Josh Hawley",
+ "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
+ "probability": 0.018691588785046724,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211003,
+ "probability": 0.018691588785046724,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -983,7 +988,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1027,27 +1032,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "33 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36 or 37",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or 41",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1071,37 +1076,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.24038461538461536,
+ "probability": 0.22429906542056072,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
+ "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
+ "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1153,12 +1158,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1191,12 +1196,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1229,12 +1234,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.7722772277227723,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.22772277227722773,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1248,67 +1253,67 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.3364485981308411,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.26168224299065423,
+ "probability": 0.3272727272727272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.2336448598130841,
+ "probability": 0.2818181818181818,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Josh Mandel",
+ "probability": 0.21818181818181814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514018,
+ "probability": 0.054545454545454536,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1467,77 +1472,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.495798319327731,
+ "probability": 0.5087719298245613,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.38655462184873945,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.01680672268907563,
+ "probability": 0.3771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Gary Chambers",
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1551,52 +1556,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.8952380952380952,
+ "probability": 0.8773584905660378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Francisco Sagasti",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sebastián Piñera",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Iván Duque",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "A. M. López Obrador",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Alberto Fernández",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Luis Arce",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1629,52 +1634,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.5181818181818181,
+ "probability": 0.5089285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.24545454545454545,
+ "probability": 0.25892857142857145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.10714285714285715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.054545454545454536,
+ "probability": 0.04464285714285715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.03636363636363636,
+ "probability": 0.03571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1707,12 +1712,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6237623762376238,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.37623762376237624,
+ "probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1726,52 +1731,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.18095238095238095,
+ "probability": 0.20754716981132074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.15238095238095237,
+ "probability": 0.16981132075471697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.19047619047619047,
+ "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.15238095238095237,
+ "probability": 0.1320754716981132,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
+ "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1785,52 +1790,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.05555555555555555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 53",
- "probability": 0.8878504672897195,
+ "probability": 0.861111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54 to 57",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 to 61",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 65",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66 to 69",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "70 to 73",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 77",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "78 to 81",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "82 or more",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1844,47 +1849,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.3214285714285714,
+ "probability": 0.33944954128440363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.31249999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.3211009174311926,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.15178571428571427,
+ "probability": 0.16513761467889906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.125,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428571,
+ "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.02678571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.008928571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1898,27 +1903,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1931,19 +1946,9 @@
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1976,62 +1981,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.14563106796116504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.44660194174757284,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.30097087378640774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2055,32 +2060,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
+ "probability": 0.06,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2089,7 +2084,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
+ "name": "Susan Davies",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Steven Sunshine",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
@@ -2097,6 +2097,11 @@
"name": "Dave Gelfand",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
@@ -2109,17 +2114,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.8316831683168316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2192,52 +2197,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.4285714285714285,
+ "probability": 0.411214953271028,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.12380952380952379,
+ "probability": 0.14953271028037382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.10476190476190474,
+ "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.07619047619047617,
+ "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666665,
+ "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666665,
+ "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
+ "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
+ "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
+ "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
+ "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2251,12 +2256,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2285,32 +2290,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.6470588235294118,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.12745098039215685,
+ "probability": 0.6732673267326733,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.12745098039215685,
+ "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Conor Lamb",
+ "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.06862745098039216,
+ "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2324,52 +2329,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
+ "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.23076923076923075,
+ "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.23076923076923075,
+ "probability": 0.23300970873786406,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.17307692307692307,
+ "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2403,7 +2408,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Charlie Dent",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2436,12 +2441,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6568627450980392,
+ "probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.34313725490196073,
+ "probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2474,62 +2479,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.5925925925925924,
+ "probability": 0.5714285714285713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.1296296296296296,
+ "probability": 0.15238095238095234,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.0648148148148148,
+ "probability": 0.05714285714285713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.0648148148148148,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.03703703703703703,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777777,
+ "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777777,
+ "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518514,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259257,
+ "name": "Chris Lu",
+ "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259257,
+ "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259257,
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sonal Shah",
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Gene Sperling",
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Neera Tanden",
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259257,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2562,117 +2567,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 1M",
- "probability": 0.11320754716981131,
+ "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1M to 1.05M",
- "probability": 0.23584905660377356,
+ "probability": 0.24761904761904763,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.05M to 1.1M",
- "probability": 0.25471698113207547,
+ "probability": 0.2571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.1M to 1.15M",
- "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
+ "probability": 0.12380952380952381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.15M to 1.2M",
- "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.2M to 1.25M",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
+ "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.25M to 1.3M",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.3M to 1.35M",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.35M to 1.4M",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.4M or more",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The \"next status report\" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released.\n",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "50 or 51",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "52 or 53",
- "probability": 0.34615384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "54 or 55",
- "probability": 0.5384615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "56 or 57",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "58 or 59",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "60 or 61",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 or 63",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "64 or 65",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "66 or more",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Haaland to the position of Secretary of the Interior commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Haaland be confirmed to position of Secretary of the Interior in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"66 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Haaland to the position of Secretary of the Interior be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/08/2021 9:28 AM (ET)\nNOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.\nOffers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1",
@@ -2680,7 +2626,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.43,
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Goodwin Liu",
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2689,13 +2640,13 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "name": "Adam Schiff",
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "name": "Diana Becton",
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2712,11 +2663,6 @@
"name": "Jeff Rosen",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
@@ -2729,52 +2675,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "70 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.13084112149532712,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.11214953271028036,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.18691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.2336448598130841,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 to 94",
- "probability": 0.1588785046728972,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "95 or more",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2788,12 +2734,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2807,12 +2753,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2826,52 +2772,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.5504587155963302,
+ "probability": 0.5555555555555555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.12844036697247707,
+ "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.10091743119266054,
+ "probability": 0.09259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
+ "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
+ "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2885,62 +2831,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yonhy Lescano",
- "probability": 0.5490196078431373,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.20588235294117646,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Forsyth",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.049019607843137254,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hernando de Soto",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Urresti",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "César Acuña",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Beingolea",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julio Guzmán",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ollanta Humala",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Salaverry",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2979,72 +2925,33 @@
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7148/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Deb Haaland",
- "probability": 0.9519230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Udall",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steve Bullock",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Martin Heinrich",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raúl Grijalva",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carol Moseley-Braun",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Secretary of the Interior by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16",
@@ -3052,37 +2959,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "11 or 12",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13 or 14",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15 or 16",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17 or 18",
- "probability": 0.8867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19 or 20",
- "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21 or 22",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3096,52 +3003,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "61 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.026315789473684213,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
+ "probability": 0.07017543859649124,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.08490566037735849,
+ "probability": 0.14035087719298248,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.1509433962264151,
+ "probability": 0.2017543859649123,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.20754716981132074,
+ "probability": 0.2017543859649123,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.23584905660377356,
+ "probability": 0.1842105263157895,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
+ "probability": 0.11403508771929825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 or more",
- "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
+ "probability": 0.04385964912280702,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3209,17 +3116,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lorena González",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Colleen Echohawk",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3243,22 +3150,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicholas Burns",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "David Shambaugh",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3266,10 +3158,25 @@
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Claire McCaskill",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Rahm Emanuel",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "David Shambaugh",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
@@ -3282,12 +3189,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3326,22 +3233,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.7636363636363636,
+ "probability": 0.798076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.09090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.09090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.054545454545454536,
+ "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3355,12 +3262,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
+ "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3374,12 +3281,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.07999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3393,22 +3300,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3417,12 +3324,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Billy Long",
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Billy Long",
+ "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
@@ -3447,12 +3354,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3462,7 +3369,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3491,12 +3398,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3510,12 +3417,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3529,37 +3436,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "38 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "39",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "42",
- "probability": 0.923076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "43",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "44 or more",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3573,52 +3480,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.049019607843137254,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.058823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8 or 9 votes",
- "probability": 0.0784313725490196,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10 or 11 votes",
- "probability": 0.08823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.09803921568627451,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14 or 15 votes",
- "probability": 0.10784313725490197,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.09803921568627451,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.09803921568627451,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.30392156862745096,
+ "probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3632,12 +3539,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3651,12 +3558,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3670,12 +3577,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.9117647058823529,
+ "probability": 0.9108910891089109,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.08823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.0891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3689,52 +3596,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.3627450980392157,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathy Hochul",
- "probability": 0.2647058823529412,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666669,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.0784313725490196,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
- "probability": 0.06862745098039216,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tom Suozzi",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jumaane Williams",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.04,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Bill de Blasio",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Yang",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Tom Suozzi",
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json
index e111a3c..aa8079d 100644
--- a/data/smarkets-questions.json
+++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json
@@ -1249,17 +1249,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2023 or earlier",
- "probability": 0.3862793572311496,
+ "probability": 0.4574565416285453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
- "probability": 0.2971260815822003,
+ "probability": 0.23760292772186642,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
- "probability": 0.3165945611866502,
+ "probability": 0.30494053064958826,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1273,41 +1273,41 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.9483313228789705,
+ "probability": 0.9424575424575425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.025130679533574583,
+ "probability": 0.024975024975024976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.00010052271813429834,
+ "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "probability": 0.00010052271813429834,
+ "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.025130679533574583,
+ "probability": 0.029370629370629373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.00010052271813429834,
+ "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.00010052271813429834,
+ "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.0010052271813429834,
+ "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2317,17 +2317,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.8455299539170507,
+ "probability": 0.8493275172664486,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.018433179723502304,
+ "probability": 0.016539440203562343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.004608294930875576,
+ "probability": 0.004543802253725918,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2337,12 +2337,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.08018433179723501,
+ "probability": 0.07906215921483097,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.051244239631336404,
+ "probability": 0.05052708106143221,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2548,17 +2548,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "GroenLinks",
- "probability": 0.32843910130074894,
+ "probability": 0.3164641093809343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)",
- "probability": 0.13312968072526607,
+ "probability": 0.12827573110520318,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)",
- "probability": 0.5384312179739851,
+ "probability": 0.5552601595138625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3398,12 +3398,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0.4217184495496407,
+ "probability": 0.4299680766161213,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.5782815504503592,
+ "probability": 0.5700319233838786,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4300,5 +4300,39 @@
],
"description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Hartlepool by-election",
+ "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election",
+ "platform": "Smarkets",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Labour",
+ "probability": 0.4359478731251537,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Conservative",
+ "probability": 0.4820916318334563,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Reform UK",
+ "probability": 0.08196049504139005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Liberal Democrats",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Northern Independence Party",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
+ "stars": 2
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js b/src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
index 06bfd61..114fb46 100644
--- a/src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
+++ b/src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie) {
// Crowd percentage
let htmlElements = response.split("\n")
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes(""))[0]
- console.log(h3Element)
+ // console.log(h3Element)
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0]
let probability = Number(crowdpercentage.replace("%", "")) / 100
options.push(({