quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
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Changed ladbrokes and williamhill code to pull all probabilities, not just those above 2%

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NunoSempere 2021-03-13 18:16:35 +01:00
parent 32b09d8134
commit a83abd61ca
7 changed files with 4650 additions and 72 deletions
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47
data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
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data/ladbrokes-questions.json
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data/metaforecasts.json
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data/williamhill-questions.csv
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data/williamhill-questions.json
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@ -89,6 +89,256 @@
"name": "James Murray", "name": "James Murray",
"probability": 0.021242228371742073, "probability": 0.021242228371742073,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Lammy",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Jarvis",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Clive Lewis",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seema Malhotra",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lousie Haigh",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jess Phillips",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Carden",
"probability": 0.018118371258250592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zarah Sultana",
"probability": 0.01502499079952488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hilary Benn",
"probability": 0.01502499079952488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shabana Mahmood",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stephen Kinnock",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim McMahon",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stella Creasy",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Miliband",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emma Hardy",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bridget Phillipson",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Burgon",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Miliband",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Pennycook",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Powell",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dawn Butler",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alison McGovern",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Janet Daby",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jonathan Ashworth",
"probability": 0.01207891417216706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ian Murray",
"probability": 0.009194397354933135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wes Streeting",
"probability": 0.009194397354933135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Kyle",
"probability": 0.009194397354933135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darren Jones",
"probability": 0.009194397354933135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chi Onwurah",
"probability": 0.009194397354933135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rosie Duffield",
"probability": 0.009194397354933135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diane Abbott",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nia Griffith",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jonathan Reynolds",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Kendall",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Preet Gill",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Helen Hayes",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vicky Foxcroft",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Russell-Moyle",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nadia Whittome",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Eagle",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Madders",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ian Lavery",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bell Ribeiro-Addy",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Barry Gardiner",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kate Osamor",
"probability": 0.0060992536908962385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tony Blair",
"probability": 0.004079633263447153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -112,6 +362,61 @@
"name": "Shaun Bailey", "name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.05022934536417672, "probability": 0.05022934536417672,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.01674311512139224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Tice",
"probability": 0.01674311512139224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justine Greening",
"probability": 0.008454444269217863,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
"probability": 0.004248253090502508,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0.004248253090502508,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.0034019875346255144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.0034019875346255144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
"probability": 0.0034019875346255144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sian Berry",
"probability": 0.0034019875346255144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0.0034019875346255144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.0034019875346255144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -130,6 +435,21 @@
"name": "Liam Byrne (Labour)", "name": "Liam Byrne (Labour)",
"probability": 0.32976932368130674, "probability": 0.32976932368130674,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ashvir Sangha (Independent)",
"probability": 0.008978867723995976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem)",
"probability": 0.008978867723995976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Weller (Independent)",
"probability": 0.0045117693538487234,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -148,6 +468,16 @@
"name": "Laura Evans (Conservative)", "name": "Laura Evans (Conservative)",
"probability": 0.028842169433388114, "probability": 0.028842169433388114,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Melanie Horrocks (Green)",
"probability": 0.006494263316127125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Elston (Independent)",
"probability": 0.0032579194708810496,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -166,6 +496,21 @@
"name": "Conservative Candidate", "name": "Conservative Candidate",
"probability": 0.14241445304529837, "probability": 0.14241445304529837,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)",
"probability": 0.009165286582123162,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Golton (Lib Dem)",
"probability": 0.009165286582123162,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)",
"probability": 0.006130423475459863,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -214,6 +559,36 @@
"name": "Dianne Morales", "name": "Dianne Morales",
"probability": 0.021821710530707354, "probability": 0.021821710530707354,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Menchaca",
"probability": 0.014547807020471568,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Loree Sutton",
"probability": 0.014547807020471568,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Curtis Sliwa",
"probability": 0.011073703851403731,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cleopatra Fitzgerald",
"probability": 0.0073459223568717825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Pepitone",
"probability": 0.0073459223568717825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abbey Laurel-Smith",
"probability": 0.0073459223568717825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -237,6 +612,11 @@
"name": "Plaid Cymru", "name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.035090581179491896, "probability": 0.035090581179491896,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.006042086825607876,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -270,6 +650,11 @@
"name": "Annalena Baerbock", "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
"probability": 0.043241137125416475, "probability": 0.043241137125416475,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0.013553192233339492,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
@ -412,8 +797,158 @@
"name": "Ivanka Trump", "name": "Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934, "probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"type": "PROBABILITY" "type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candace Owens",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Ryan",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kanye West",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Kushner",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike DeWine",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Hickenlooper",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Kaine",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Megan Rapinoe",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Meghan Markle",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Gaetz",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
} }
], ],
"stars": 2 "stars": 2
} }
] ]

4
src/ladbrokes-fetch.js
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@ -68,8 +68,8 @@ let processResults = async (json) => {
probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue
})) }))
// Filter very unlikely probabilities // Filter very unlikely probabilities: Not here, but on the front end
options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02) // options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02)
let obj = ({ let obj = ({
"title": title, "title": title,

4
src/williamhill-fetch.js
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@ -93,8 +93,8 @@ let processResults = (html) => {
...element, ...element,
probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue probability: Number(element.probability) / totalValue
})) }))
// Filter very unlikely probabilities // Filter very unlikely probabilities: Not here, but on the front end
options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02) // options = options.filter(element => element.probability > 0.02)
let obj = ({ let obj = ({
"title": title, "title": title,