Clarifications w/Omen, preview
This commit is contained in:
		
							parent
							
								
									9d70812fb9
								
							
						
					
					
						commit
						a735da3144
					
				| 
						 | 
				
			
			@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
 | 
			
		|||
## What this is 
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a small search engine for probabilities. 
 | 
			
		||||
This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a search engine for probabilities. 
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ranked according to their quality. For now, a demo can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/) (try searching "Trump"), and the database can be perused [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/). 
 | 
			
		||||
Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ranked according to their quality. For now, a demo can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/) (try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors"), and the database can be perused [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/). 
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||

 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
## How to run
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
| 
						 | 
				
			
			@ -11,7 +13,7 @@ Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ra
 | 
			
		|||
``git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts``
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
### 2. Enter your own cookies
 | 
			
		||||
Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get said cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json`
 | 
			
		||||
Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get these cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json`
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
### 3. Actually run
 | 
			
		||||
 | 
			
		||||
| 
						 | 
				
			
			@ -22,3 +24,4 @@ From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start`
 | 
			
		|||
- Right now, I'm fetching only a couple of common properties, such as the title, url, platform, whether a question is binary (yes/no), its percentage, and the number of forecasts. However, the code contains more fields commented out, such as trade volume, liquidity, etc. 
 | 
			
		||||
- A note as to quality: Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen. Further, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
 | 
			
		||||
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions.
 | 
			
		||||
- Omen *does* have very few active predictions at the moment; this is not a mistake. 
 | 
			
		||||
| 
						 | 
				
			
			
 | 
			
		|||
							
								
								
									
										
											BIN
										
									
								
								metaforecasts.png
									
									
									
									
									
										Normal file
									
								
							
							
						
						
									
										
											BIN
										
									
								
								metaforecasts.png
									
									
									
									
									
										Normal file
									
								
							
										
											Binary file not shown.
										
									
								
							| 
		 After Width: | Height: | Size: 97 KiB  | 
		Loading…
	
		Reference in New Issue
	
	Block a user