diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index cd1e5c3..b3130e5 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -1,8 +1,10 @@ ## What this is -This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a small search engine for probabilities. +This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a search engine for probabilities. -Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ranked according to their quality. For now, a demo can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/) (try searching "Trump"), and the database can be perused [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/). +Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ranked according to their quality. For now, a demo can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/) (try searching "Trump", "China" or "Semiconductors"), and the database can be perused [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/). + +![](./metaforecasts.png) ## How to run @@ -11,7 +13,7 @@ Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ra ``git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts`` ### 2. Enter your own cookies -Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get said cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json` +Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get these cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json` ### 3. Actually run @@ -22,3 +24,4 @@ From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start` - Right now, I'm fetching only a couple of common properties, such as the title, url, platform, whether a question is binary (yes/no), its percentage, and the number of forecasts. However, the code contains more fields commented out, such as trade volume, liquidity, etc. - A note as to quality: Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen. Further, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%. - For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions. +- Omen *does* have very few active predictions at the moment; this is not a mistake. diff --git a/metaforecasts.png b/metaforecasts.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ba167e9 Binary files /dev/null and b/metaforecasts.png differ