Added various good judment (Superforecaster) dashboards

README.md

@@ -22,6 +22,6 @@ From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start`
 ## Various notes
 
 - Right now, I'm fetching only a couple of common properties, such as the title, url, platform, whether a question is binary (yes/no), its percentage, and the number of forecasts. However, the code contains more fields commented out, such as trade volume, liquidity, etc. 
-- A note as to quality: Tentatively, Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen. Further, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%. I'm not really sure where Hypermind falls in that spectrum.
+- A note as to quality: Tentatively, Good Judgment >> Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen. Further, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%. I'm not really sure where Hypermind falls in that spectrum.
 - For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions.
 - Omen *does* have very few active predictions at the moment; this is not a mistake. 

data/goodjudgment-questions.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
+"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a ""public option"" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",

data/goodjudgment-questions.json

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+[
+  {
+    "Title": "When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a \"public option\" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  }
+]

data/merged-questions.csv

@@ -1551,6 +1551,20 @@ how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?","https://www.metaculus.com/qu
 "How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","87"
 "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","90"
 "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","120"
+"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a ""public option"" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
+"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
 "Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"21%","38"
 "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"35%","62"
 "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","71"

data/merged-questions.json

@@ -12594,6 +12594,104 @@
     "# Forecasts": "120",
     "# Forecasters": "75"
   },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a \"public option\" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
+  {
+    "Title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'?",
+    "URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
+    "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+    "Binary question?": false,
+    "Percentage": "none"
+  },
   {
     "Title": "Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?",
     "URL": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021",

src/goodjudgment-fetch.js

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+/* Imports */
+import axios from "axios"
+import fs from "fs"
+
+/* Definitions */
+let endpoints = ["https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/"]
+
+/* Support functions */
+
+/* Body */
+
+export async function goodjudgment(){
+  let results = []
+  for(let endpoint of endpoints){
+    let content = await axios.get(endpoint)
+        .then(query => query.data)
+    let questions = content.split(`<td align="center">&nbsp;Today's<br/>Forecast&nbsp`)
+    for(let question of questions){
+      let lastlineposition= question.lastIndexOf("value=")
+      let lastline = question.substring(lastlineposition+1, question.length)
+      if(!lastline.includes("Close Superforecaster Analysis") && !lastline.includes("</table")){
+        let lastlineremovetabs = lastline.replace("			", "")
+        let lastlineremovetags1 = lastlineremovetabs.split(">\n")[1]
+        let lastlineremovetags2 = lastlineremovetags1.replace("</td", "")
+        let lastlinereplacequotations = lastlineremovetags2.replaceAll("&quot;","'")
+        console.log(lastlinereplacequotations)
+        let standardObj = ({
+          "Title": lastlinereplacequotations,
+          "URL": endpoint,
+          "Platform": "Good Judgment",
+          "Binary question?": false,
+          "Percentage": "none",
+        })
+        results.push(standardObj)
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  let string = JSON.stringify(results,null,  2)
+  fs.writeFileSync('./data/goodjudgment-questions.json', string);
+  console.log("Done")
+}
+//goodjudgment()

src/index.js

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import readline from "readline"
 
 import {csetforetell} from "./csetforetell-fetch.js"
 import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js" // Currently doesn't "fetch"; elicit must be downloaded manually. 
+import {goodjudgment} from "./goodjudgment-fetch.js"
 import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js"
 import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js"
 import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js"
@@ -16,7 +17,7 @@ import {hypermind} from "./hypermind-fetch.js"
 let opts = {}
 let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms:  [transforms.flatten()]});
 //let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
-let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind"]
+let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind"]
 let suffix = "-questions"
 let locationData = "./data/"
 let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
@@ -72,36 +73,39 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
       elicit()
       break;
     case 3:
-      goodjudgmentopen()
+      goodjudgment()
       break;
     case 4:
-      metaculus()
+      goodjudgmentopen()
       break;
     case 5:
-      polymarket()
+      hypermind()
       break;
     case 6:
-      predictit()
+      metaculus()
       break;
     case 7:
       omen()
       break;
     case 8:
-      hypermind()
+      polymarket()
       break;
     case 9:    
-      coverttocsvandmerge()
+      predictit()
       break;
     case 10:
+      coverttocsvandmerge()
+      break;
+    case 11:
       await elicit()
-      //await sleep(30000) // The user only has 30secs. Not really ideal. 
       await csetforetell()
+      await goodjudgment()
       await goodjudgmentopen()
+      await hypermind()
       await metaculus()
+      await omen()
       await polymarket()
       await predictit()
-      await omen()
-      await hypermind()
       await coverttocsvandmerge()
       break;
     default:
@@ -114,13 +118,14 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
 let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do?
 [1]: Download predictions from csetforetell
 [2]: Download predictions from elicit
-[3]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen
+[3]: Download predictions from goodjudgment
-[4]: Download predictions from metaculus
+[4]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen
-[5]: Download predictions from polymarket
+[5]: Download predictions from hypermind
-[6]: Download predictions from predictit
+[6]: Download predictions from metaculus
 [7]: Download predictions from omen
-[8]: Download predictions from hypermind
+[8]: Download predictions from polymarket
-[9]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires steps 1-8)
+[9]: Download predictions from predictit
-[10]: All of the above
+[10]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires previous steps)
+[11]: All of the above
 Choose one option, wisely: #`
 whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption)