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[
{
"title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/125-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-before-july-1-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high in 2020 (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defence state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region which will be of interest to the international community. The July 1 2021 represents the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. ***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:14.639Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "85",
"numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one of more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area, which would be of interest to many teams.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:17.431Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "52",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.5%",
"probability": 0.11320000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
"probability": 0.1975,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2779,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1925,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 12%",
"probability": 0.2189,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:20.424Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "97",
"numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:23.231Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "26",
"numforecasters": "23",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:25.848Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "23",
"numforecasters": "19",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:28.960Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "20",
"numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.0418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.3054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.30820000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.2161,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:31.766Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "49",
"numforecasters": "40",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
"probability": 0.1252,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.33140000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
"probability": 0.3232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
"probability": 0.16579999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
"probability": 0.054400000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:34.995Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "89",
"numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
"probability": 0.0729,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.16760000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
"probability": 0.5379999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
"probability": 0.2029,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
"probability": 0.018600000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:38.073Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "36",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.050199999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.133,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.31420000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.2576,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:49:59.269Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "84",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. \"Fires upon\" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:02.644Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "144",
"numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:04.965Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "195",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $40 billion",
"probability": 0.0528,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2522,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
"probability": 0.4056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
"probability": 0.21719999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion",
"probability": 0.0722,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:08.571Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "57",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.0332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.42450000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.32030000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.09970000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:11.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "59",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.19329999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3189,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.29960000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
"probability": 0.1467,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.5",
"probability": 0.0414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:15.073Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "150",
"numforecasters": "111",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0.0506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.19329999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
"probability": 0.35350000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
"probability": 0.254,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
"probability": 0.14859999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:17.888Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "115",
"numforecasters": "92",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.0492,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.3403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
"probability": 0.2051,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.1018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:20.697Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "144",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
"probability": 0.031,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.0981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
"probability": 0.2158,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
"probability": 0.3145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
"probability": 0.3406,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:23.822Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "73",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.1282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.4506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.2904,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.1013,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
"probability": 0.0296,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:27.167Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "157",
"numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\"  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 0.45%",
"probability": 0.0484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1732,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
"probability": 0.2768,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:37.154Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "67",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:40.350Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "153",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 20%",
"probability": 0.08800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
"probability": 0.3705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
"probability": 0.25780000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 35%",
"probability": 0.1139,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:43.474Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "75",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:46.450Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "365",
"numforecasters": "198",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.0223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.0738,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.21559999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:49.230Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.12369999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1791,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.2658,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.2939,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.1376,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:52.528Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "239",
"numforecasters": "169",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:55.172Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "201",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
"probability": 0.067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.2113,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.2891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
"probability": 0.29710000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:58.224Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "222",
"numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
}
}
]

15930
data/old/elicit-output.txt
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data/old/elicit-questions.csv
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@ -1,353 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",352,143,1
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8205128205128206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1794871794871794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",234,126,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3674375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6325625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",160,104,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,96,1
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",114,92,1
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,91,1
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,87,1
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",119,77,1
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,77,1
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",110,77,1
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",100,75,1
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,74,1
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",97,73,1
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",112,71,1
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,70,1
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,69,1
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,68,1
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,67,1
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,66,1
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,66,1
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,63,1
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,63,1
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,62,1
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,61,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,57,1
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,54,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",66,52,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,52,1
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,45,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0548,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9452,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,41,1
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,37,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20215384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7978461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,36,1
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,35,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,33,1
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,34,1
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,33,1
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,32,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,29,1
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,30,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,28,1
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,29,1
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,29,1
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,29,1
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,28,1
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,28,1
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,28,1
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,27,1
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,26,1
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,26,1
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8062264150943396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19377358490566043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",53,26,1
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,26,1
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,26,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,26,1
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,25,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,24,1
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,23,1
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,23,1
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,23,1
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,22,1
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,22,1
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,22,1
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,22,1
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,22,1
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,22,1
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,21,1
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,21,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,21,1
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,21,1
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,21,1
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,21,1
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,21,1
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,20,1
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,20,1
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,20,1
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,20,1
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,20,1
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,19,1
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,18,1
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,19,1
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8738461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12615384615384617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,19,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8185714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18142857142857138,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,19,1
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,19,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,19,1
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,19,1
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,18,1
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,18,1
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,18,1
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,18,1
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,18,1
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,17,1
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,17,1
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,16,1
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,16,1
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,15,1
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,15,1
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,15,1
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,14,1
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,14,1
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,14,1
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,13,1
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,13,1
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,12,1
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,12,1
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,12,1
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,12,1
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,11,1
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,11,1
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,11,1
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,11,1
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,11,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,11,1
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,11,1
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5484615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45153846153846156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,10,1
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,10,1
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5648011363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4351988636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 352 143 1
3 Will more than 50 people predict on this post? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8205128205128206,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1794871794871794,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 234 126 1
4 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3674375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6325625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 160 104 1
5 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5289130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47108695652173915,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 138 96 1
6 Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.757280701754386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.242719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 114 92 1
7 The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333177570093458,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666822429906542,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 214 91 1
8 Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6183620689655173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38163793103448274,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 116 87 1
9 How vivid is your visual imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5068067226890757,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4931932773109243,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 119 77 1
10 Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4249074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5750925925925926,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 108 77 1
11 Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 110 77 1
12 Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11789999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8821,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 100 75 1
13 How vivid is your sound imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6116981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3883018867924528,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 106 74 1
14 Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2895876288659794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7104123711340207,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 97 73 1
15 Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4311607142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5688392857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 112 71 1
16 There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5817721518987341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4182278481012659,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 158 70 1
17 How vivid is your taste imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25726190476190475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7427380952380953,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 69 1
18 How vivid is your smell imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25414634146341464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7458536585365854,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 82 68 1
19 Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2538095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7461904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 67 1
20 Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1975862068965517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8024137931034483,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 87 66 1
21 How frequently do you think in words? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7812790697674419,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21872093023255812,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 86 66 1
22 Do you have an internal monologue? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8227500000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1772499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 80 63 1
23 How good is your memory? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5229113924050633,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47708860759493665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 63 1
24 How vivid is your touch imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3612658227848101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6387341772151899,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 62 1
25 How much control do you have over your mind? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45592105263157895,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5440789473684211,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 76 61 1
26 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42764705882352944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5723529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 85 57 1
27 Trump will win a second term https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.462027027027027,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.537972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 74 54 1
28 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3156060606060606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6843939393939393,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 66 52 1
29 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24506666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7549333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 75 52 1
30 Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8951807228915662,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10481927710843375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 45 1
31 The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0548,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9452,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 75 41 1
32 Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6021951219512195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3978048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 41 37 1
33 The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20215384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7978461538461539,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 65 36 1
34 By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5548648648648649,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44513513513513514,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 37 35 1
35 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6111904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3888095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 33 1
36 A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.687142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31285714285714294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 34 1
37 The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28800000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.712,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 33 1
38 Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007941176470588234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920588235294118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 32 1
39 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36911764705882355,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6308823529411764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 29 1
40 The Pope will be assassinated. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0303125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 30 1
41 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47382978723404257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261702127659574,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 28 1
42 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 28 1
43 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38967741935483874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6103225806451613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 29 1
44 PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 29 1
45 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9709090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 29 1
46 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5493617021276596,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45063829787234044,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 28 1
47 No military draft in the United States before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9027272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09727272727272729,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 28 1
48 Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08806451612903227,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9119354838709677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 28 1
49 No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17874999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 28 1
50 Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08678571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9132142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 27 1
51 Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9976923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 26 1
52 ...be an environmental disaster. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2479310344827586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7520689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 26 1
53 In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8062264150943396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19377358490566043,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 53 26 1
54 Trump wins Nobel https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10552631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8944736842105263,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 38 26 1
55 California will secede from the United States before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006764705882352942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9932352941176471,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 26 1
56 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4023809523809524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5976190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 26 1
57 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018846153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9811538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 25 1
58 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4684375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5315624999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 24 1
59 For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5855882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41441176470588237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 23 1
60 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9253846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 23 1
61 "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9030769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 23 1
62 The Singularity will occur by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35119999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6488,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 23 1
63 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2439285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7560714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 23 1
64 By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 22 1
65 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31120000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 22 1
66 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6226923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37730769230769234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 22 1
67 Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33909090909090905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6609090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 22 1
68 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8411111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15888888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 22 1
69 Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19347826086956524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8065217391304348,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 22 1
70 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5815384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 39 21 1
71 In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7363999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 21 1
72 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6084375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39156250000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 21 1
73 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13119999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8688,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 21 1
74 The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3745833333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6254166666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 21 1
75 Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20482758620689656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7951724137931034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 21 1
76 For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2885185185185185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7114814814814815,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 21 1
77 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7019047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2980952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 21 1
78 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.994090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.005909090909090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 21 1
79 Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2782857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7217142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 20 1
80 The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3109375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6890625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 20 1
81 Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34127659574468083,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6587234042553192,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 20 1
82 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8142857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18571428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 20 1
83 ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 20 1
84 Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15333333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 20 1
85 Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7836363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 20 1
86 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8831818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 20 1
87 Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04739130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9526086956521739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 20 1
88 Google will survive for 15 more years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8838095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 20 1
89 China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07454545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9254545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 20 1
90 Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9305,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
91 United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
92 Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5694285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4305714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 19 1
93 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4704761904761905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5295238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
94 Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6031428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 18 1
95 ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
96 Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8313636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16863636363636358,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 19 1
97 In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8738461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12615384615384617,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 19 1
98 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20523809523809525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7947619047619048,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
99 In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8185714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18142857142857138,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 19 1
100 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3638095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6361904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
101 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02210526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9778947368421053,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 19 1
102 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7484999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25150000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
103 Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
104 No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13249999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 19 1
105 The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7243478260869566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2756521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 19 1
106 Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.352,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 18 1
107 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3281481481481482,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6718518518518518,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 18 1
108 “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 18 1
109 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6427777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35722222222222233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 18 1
110 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6434000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3565999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 18 1
111 We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8795238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 18 1
112 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5177777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4822222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 18 1
113 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6754545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3245454545454546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 18 1
114 Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9668181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 18 1
115 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08388888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9161111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
116 It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.017222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9827777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
117 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.982,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 17 1
118 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2161904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7838095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 17 1
119 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6933333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30666666666666675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
120 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4717391304347826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5282608695652173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 17 1
121 Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12789473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8721052631578947,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 17 1
122 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 17 1
123 aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.009444444444444445,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9905555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
124 A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6905,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 17 1
125 Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26894736842105266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 17 1
126 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8395238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16047619047619055,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 17 1
127 Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9531578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04684210526315791,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 16 1
128 If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7770588235294117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2229411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
129 By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 16 1
130 Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4288888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5711111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 16 1
131 Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 16 1
132 An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5777777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42222222222222217,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 16 1
133 A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.049,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 16 1
134 Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19105263157894736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8089473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 16 1
135 US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02235294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9776470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
136 An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0811764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9188235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
137 Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35526315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6447368421052632,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 16 1
138 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.933125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06687500000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
139 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5517647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44823529411764707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
140 The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 15 1
141 If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7394117647058823,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2605882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
142 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.294375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.705625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
143 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6647058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33529411764705885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
144 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 15 1
145 Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 15 1
146 Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5689655172413793,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43103448275862066,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 15 1
147 Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.926875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.073125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
148 Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9629411764705882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
149 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7811764705882354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21882352941176464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
150 C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9353333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06466666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 15 1
151 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.118125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.881875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
152 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43473684210526314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5652631578947369,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 15 1
153 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 15 1
154 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5852941176470589,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
155 By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7178571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
156 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47388888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 14 1
157 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3026315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6973684210526316,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 14 1
158 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
159 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17394444444444446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8260555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 14 1
160 Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.111875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.888125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 14 1
161 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05941176470588236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9405882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 14 1
162 In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
163 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 14 1
164 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9214285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
165 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08785714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9121428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
166 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
167 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17799999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
168 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
169 The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9017647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 14 1
170 Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 14 1
171 Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8717647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12823529411764711,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 14 1
172 "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
173 The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11733333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8826666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
174 Humanity still a thing in 2036 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
175 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5135714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
176 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 13 1
177 We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40842105263157896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.591578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 13 1
178 ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8461111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15388888888888885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 13 1
179 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7389473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2610526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 13 1
180 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 13 1
181 10 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9158333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 36 13 1
182 Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.320625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6793750000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
183 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4446153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5553846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 13 1
184 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44153846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5584615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
185 Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6271428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3728571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
186 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8146153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
187 Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2764285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7235714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
188 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 13 1
189 By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3830769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6169230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
190 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.955,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
191 Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.853125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14687499999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
192 In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1469230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8530769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
193 The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
194 By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8892307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
195 Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2978571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7021428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
196 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.040769230769230766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
197 Trump dies of COVID-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 13 1
198 North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 13 1
199 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.106875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.893125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
200 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7324999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
201 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
202 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1336842105263158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8663157894736842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 13 1
203 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9507692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
204 Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
205 Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9228571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
206 If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6315384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3684615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 13 1
207 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4607142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5392857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
208 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
209 “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
210 “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03833333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9616666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
211 By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.027333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9726666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
212 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
213 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9235714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
214 Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
215 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
216 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5107142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4892857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
217 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33461538461538465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
218 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8683333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1316666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
219 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8583333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
220 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3707692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6292307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
221 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.696923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.303076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
222 We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24333333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
223 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6083333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
224 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3358333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6641666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
225 Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013076923076923076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9869230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
226 If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
227 Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5075757575757576,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 12 1
228 If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5689473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 12 1
229 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5246666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4753333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
230 There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
231 North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 12 1
232 Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
233 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46692307692307694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.533076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
234 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8407142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
235 At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21076923076923082,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
236 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9535714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
237 100 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007931034482758621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920689655172413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 12 1
238 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23377083333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7662291666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 11 1
239 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
240 The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4081818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5918181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 11 1
241 Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9646153846153847,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
242 The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 11 1
243 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26272727272727275,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7372727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
244 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6136363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
245 At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
246 "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7516666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2483333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
247 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
248 Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21272727272727274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7872727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
249 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
250 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
251 50 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.016470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9835294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 11 1
252 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2809090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7190909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
253 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
254 Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4753846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5246153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
255 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
256 Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10181818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8981818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
257 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6778571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32214285714285706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
258 People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
259 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.543076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
260 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.024166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9758333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
261 They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5557142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4442857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
262 Trump will run for president in 2024 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7961538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
263 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08923076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
264 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28428571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7157142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
265 Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6592857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34071428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
266 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6866666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
267 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4314285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
268 The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5407692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
269 Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6836363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
270 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8921428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
271 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
272 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5621428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43785714285714283,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
273 'President Mike Pence' https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.140625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.859375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 11 1
274 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7783333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
275 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9458333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
276 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
277 Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44083333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5591666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
278 China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
279 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
280 We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5269230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47307692307692306,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
281 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10285714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8971428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
282 The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 11 1
283 Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 11 1
284 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
285 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7091666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
286 some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9623076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
287 "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6481818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3518181818181819,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
288 "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7927272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
289 By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31384615384615383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6861538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
290 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45307692307692304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.546923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
291 By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.0675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
292 We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17923076923076922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8207692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
293 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44166666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5583333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
294 In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09357142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9064285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
295 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
296 A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
297 Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
298 Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5484615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45153846153846156,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 10 1
299 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4309090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
300 Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2963636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
301 Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
302 Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 10 1
303 The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.789,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21099999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
304 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
305 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8908333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
306 Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2907692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7092307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
307 EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6054545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
308 Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.467,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5329999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
309 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7221428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
310 Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7709999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2290000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
311 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
312 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6910000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
313 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
314 Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
315 By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8691666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
316 homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
317 At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
318 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9258333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
319 WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9114285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
320 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.750909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.24909090909090903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
321 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
322 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17300000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
323 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
324 Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.887,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
325 Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9863636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
326 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.783,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
327 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
328 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44399999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
329 Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.958,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
330 “China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
331 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9290909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
332 The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.060909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9390909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
333 What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9042857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
334 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
335 SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
336 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
337 More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7361538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
338 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.796,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
339 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8790909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
340 Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7791666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
341 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
342 By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6653846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
343 Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3463636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6536363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1

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[
{
"title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 3 January 2023?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "After the US Senate voted <a href=\"https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike\" target=\"_blank\">against</a> a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218\" target=\"_blank\">strategies</a>. The current federal minimum <a href=\"https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206\" target=\"_blank\">wage</a> is <a href=\"https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage\" target=\"_blank\">$7.25</a> per hour. In the case of phased increases, the question would resolve based on the final hourly rate to be implemented and irrespective of any indexing. The effective date of an increase would be immaterial.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, to less than $10.00",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">focus</a> on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from <a href=\"http://www.ev-volumes.com\" target=\"_blank\">EV-volumes.com</a> whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2020 was <a href=\"http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/\" target=\"_blank\">4.2%</a>.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 4.0%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.0%",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows\" target=\"_blank\">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations\" target=\"_blank\">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the \"TABLE\" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for \"World,\" and see the relevant number in the column titled \"End.\" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history\" target=\"_blank\">pushing</a> to <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325\" target=\"_blank\">execute</a> its <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech\" target=\"_blank\">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=\"https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus\" target=\"_blank\">UK</a> <a href=\"https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976\" target=\"_blank\">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 March 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">can</a> be <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\"> found</a> <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "In its 2020 report, The <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices\" target=\"_blank\">Conference</a> <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive\" target=\"_blank\">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/us/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The International Monetary Fund (<a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>) and <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering\" target=\"_blank\">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/\" target=\"_blank\">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending\" target=\"_blank\">website</a>, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls\" target=\"_blank\">April 2020</a> report.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower by more than 8%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Interest in <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter\" target=\"_blank\">sustainable</a> <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us\" target=\"_blank\">sector</a> <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs\" target=\"_blank\">investment</a> <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule\" target=\"_blank\">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows\" target=\"_blank\">data</a> from <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records\" target=\"_blank\">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "At or below 2020 levels",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">can</a> be <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\"> found</a> <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits\" target=\"_blank\">workers</a> to work from <a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487\" target=\"_blank\">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=\"https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain\" target=\"_blank\">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30%",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
}
]

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[
{
"title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3032935619590304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6967064380409697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.315Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
}
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5509755750419132,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44902442495808675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
}
}
]

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[
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04796853499144450688949206400915807",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9520314650085554931105079359908419",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "137",
"liquidity": "1585.76",
"tradevolume": "9977.68",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9007428867327054129165036606952368",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.09925711326729458708349633930476325",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "853",
"liquidity": "9826.84",
"tradevolume": "96927.10",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5206285472686400507444749347907407",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4793714527313599492555250652092593",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "590",
"liquidity": "27288.56",
"tradevolume": "95335.81",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-14-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 15, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 14, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3535197095680785170642305476130527",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6464802904319214829357694523869473",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "70",
"liquidity": "6012.10",
"tradevolume": "9506.53",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9339458073173414421656340245752705",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.06605419268265855783436597542472948",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "74",
"liquidity": "11563.47",
"tradevolume": "8977.70",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1665007233546323391526042792748865",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8334992766453676608473957207251135",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "107",
"liquidity": "2136.64",
"tradevolume": "8932.72",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9632262890311635630827874617597747",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.03677371096883643691721253824022533",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "528",
"liquidity": "4057.43",
"tradevolume": "80146.73",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.002230462986002085580952958875012663",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50,000-62,499",
"probability": "0.01943734896497328170661380961001092",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62,500-74,999",
"probability": "0.9761999336157880496144669916833917",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75,000 or more",
"probability": "0.002132254433236583097966239831584897",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "348",
"liquidity": "2000.00",
"tradevolume": "7745.24",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9950022276106855881319902372862853",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.004997772389314411868009762713714693",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "44",
"liquidity": "1184.32",
"tradevolume": "7441.96",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.732235446884398698530675700296491",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.267764553115601301469324299703509",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1338",
"liquidity": "206602.57",
"tradevolume": "701564.43",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03413667417694183066424578230798366",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9658633258230581693357542176920163",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "133",
"liquidity": "2628.43",
"tradevolume": "6625.39",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06698999379989905965353372642409035",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9330100062001009403464662735759097",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "476",
"liquidity": "4039.72",
"tradevolume": "65732.40",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03921719512341878664778748620392095",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.960782804876581213352212513796079",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "110",
"liquidity": "1368.68",
"tradevolume": "6123.61",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01594316631423604659920151808627175",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9840568336857639534007984819137282",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "768",
"liquidity": "1597.05",
"tradevolume": "57034.77",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04444621728750495279667043356264725",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9555537827124950472033295664373527",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "750",
"liquidity": "1831.75",
"tradevolume": "55256.23",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 170 Gwei on April 19?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-170-gwei-on-april-19",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 170 Gwei on April 19, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the daily average Ethereum gas price is listed as being below 170 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If the daily average Ethereum gas price is 170 Gwei or higher for that date, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 19, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6755572443640393018752364739146016",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3244427556359606981247635260853984",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "14",
"liquidity": "804.76",
"tradevolume": "533.17",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08446095208233418986080353647514015",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9155390479176658101391964635248599",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "516",
"liquidity": "7988.71",
"tradevolume": "53145.52",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5050241461157637610495418110858291",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4949758538842362389504581889141709",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "42",
"liquidity": "54242.49",
"tradevolume": "4559.50",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on April 14, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elonmusk-account-on-april-14-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @ElonMusk, shall exceed 13,963 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @ElonMusk, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@ElonMusk\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @ElonMusk just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Elon Musk, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @ElonMusk will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 30",
"probability": "0.02712575215606869253252600966220513",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30-40",
"probability": "0.1115263745913060475253404147763908",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41-50",
"probability": "0.2219636014313589647902402720571277",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51-60",
"probability": "0.2547160184188490839953676900262511",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61-70",
"probability": "0.1907413972112541594210074122414898",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71-80",
"probability": "0.1255456580166040091498031486191968",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80",
"probability": "0.06838119817455904258571505261733859",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "152",
"liquidity": "2555.00",
"tradevolume": "4495.18",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7373184535851954646769817275173767",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2626815464148045353230182724826233",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "68",
"liquidity": "1000.00",
"tradevolume": "4268.68",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1958944749463810152808445623177045",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8041055250536189847191554376822955",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "101",
"liquidity": "1131.33",
"tradevolume": "4252.10",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.9524984652600312046436200271105158",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.04750153473996879535637997288948422",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "330",
"liquidity": "1800.31",
"tradevolume": "36782.54",
"stars": 3
}
}
]

4429
data/old/predictit-questions.json
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5373
data/old/smarkets-questions.json
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13
data/old/stars.csv
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@ -1,13 +0,0 @@
Platform,Stars Nuño,Stars Misha,Stars Eli
CSET-foretell,"2, 1 if less than 100 forecasts",2,3
Good Judgment,4,3.5,4
Good Judgment Open,"3, 2 if less than 100 forecasts",3.1 if > 10%,3
Guesstimate,1,,
Hypermind,3,,
Metaculus,"4, 3 if less than 300, 2 if less than 100","3.3 on pandemic, 2.9 otherwise",3
PolyMarket,"3 with more than $10k liquidity, 2 otherwise",4,"5 stars if more than 10k liquidity, 4 otherwise"
PredictIt,2,2.5,3.5
Smarkets,2,,
Elicit,1,,
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy,2,,
Omen,2,,
1 Platform Stars Nuño Stars Misha Stars Eli
2 CSET-foretell 2, 1 if less than 100 forecasts 2 3
3 Good Judgment 4 3.5 4
4 Good Judgment Open 3, 2 if less than 100 forecasts 3.1 if > 10% 3
5 Guesstimate 1
6 Hypermind 3
7 Metaculus 4, 3 if less than 300, 2 if less than 100 3.3 on pandemic, 2.9 otherwise 3
8 PolyMarket 3 with more than $10k liquidity, 2 otherwise 4 5 stars if more than 10k liquidity, 4 otherwise
9 PredictIt 2 2.5 3.5
10 Smarkets 2
11 Elicit 1
12 GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy 2
13 Omen 2

34
data/old/template-questions.json
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@ -1,34 +0,0 @@
[ {
"title": "Some title",
"url": "someurl.com",
"platform": "some platform",
"description": "Some long description which may contain html",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Field may not exist",
"contractAddress": "Field may not exist"
},
"options": [
{
"name": "Option 1",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 2",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 3",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "137",
"liquidity": "1585.76",
"tradevolume": "9977.68",
"stars": 3
}
}
]

2219
data/old/williamhill-questions.json
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110
data/older/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv
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@ -1,110 +0,0 @@
title,url,probability,actualEstimate,platform,date_approx,category,description
Total existential risk by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.17,~17% (~1 in 6),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,"Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""
This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his ""business as usual"" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.19,19%,GCR Conference,2008,Total risk,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
Existential risk in the 21st century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript,0.01,1%,Will MacAskill,2019,Total risk,
Extinction risk in the next century,https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/,0.03,Probably at or above 3%,"Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",2017,Total risk,
Risk of extinction over the next five centuries,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.3,At or above 30%,John Leslie,1996,Total risk,"""The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,"≤50% (""no better than fifty-fifty"")",Martin Rees,2003,Total risk,
"There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/,0.08,Median: 1%. Mean: 8%.,Metaculus responders,,Total risk,That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.
Existential disaster will do us in,https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html,0.25,Probably at or above 25%,Nick Bostrom,2002,Total risk,
"Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,5%.,Gott III,1993,Total risk,
Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0035,0.3-0.4%,Wells,2009,Total risk,
Global catastrophic risk per year.,https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072,0.002,0.2%,Simpson,2016,Total risk,"Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about ""global catastrophic risk""."
Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,50% (~1 in 2),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,
Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg,0.2,>20%,Ozzie Gooen,2020,Total risk,"""I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."""
Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.1,~10%,Toby Ord,2020,AI,
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,Global Catastrophic Risk Conference,2008,AI,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence,https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807,0.05,5%,Survey of AI experts,2017,AI,"The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
"A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,0-10%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,AI,
AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg,0.055,~0.1-1%,Ben Garfinkel,2020,AI,"Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."""
"Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.05,~5%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
AI-induced existential catastrophe,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.5,50%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI,
Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.0005,0.05%,James Fodor,2020,AI,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
Existential risk from AI,https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229,0.175,5-30%,Stuart Armstrong,2020,AI,"""I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased."" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk. "
Chance of humanity not surviving AI,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40),0.4,"50, 40, or 33%",Stuart Armstrong,2014,AI,"Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more ""optimism"" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/,0.01,~10%,Paul Christiano,2019,AI,"He also says ""I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number."" And ""All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."""
Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?),https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854,41.5,33-50%,Jaan Tallinn,2020,AI,"This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said ""two obvious Schelling points"" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.03,~3% (~1 in 30),Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.0005,0.05%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,"~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.02,2%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.00004,0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include ""accidental"" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.0000019,0.00019% (0.0000019),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,
Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.000002,0.0002%,James Fodor,2020,Biorisk,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.005,0.5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,0.0100%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Nanotechnology,
Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.02,~2% (~1 in 50),Toby Ord,2020,Nanotechnology,See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)
"Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810,0.33,"~33% (""about one in three"")",Toby Ord,2020,Total risk/conditional,"""Ord: """"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?
My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.""""
Arden Koehler replies """"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?""""
Ord replies: """"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."""""""
"The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.18,18%,Survey of experts in the AI field,2016,AI/conditional,"This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was ""4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"" "
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.1,~10%,Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.7,~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates),Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,
"Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.2,~20%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/conditional,"This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.
""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."""
Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.02,~2%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/Conditional,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper,http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html,0.000055,"0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",Luke Oman,2012,Nuclear/Conditional,"I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming ",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.1,10%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.35,30-40%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.6,60%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.9,90%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.97,97%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.03,3%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905,0.1,10%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906,0.001,0.1%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907,0.25,25%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,"This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.1,~10%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,"""So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."""
"AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.25,~20-30%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,
The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI/non-existential,"""There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."""
We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI/non-existential,"""I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."""
We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.5,~50%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/non-existential,"""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."""
Soft AGI takeoff,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.7,70%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.67,67%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.62,62%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.6,60%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.52,52%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.005,0.5%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.6,60%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.25,25%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.01,1%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.05,~5%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/non-existential,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
Per year chance of nuclear war,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.011,1.10%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.0038,0.38%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Climate change/non-existential,
At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.98,98%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.7,70%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
1 title url probability actualEstimate platform date_approx category description
2 Total existential risk by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.17 ~17% (~1 in 6) Toby Ord 2020 Total risk Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability." This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his "business as usual" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.
3 Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.19 19% GCR Conference 2008 Total risk This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
4 Existential risk in the 21st century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript 0.01 1% Will MacAskill 2019 Total risk
5 Extinction risk in the next century https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/ 0.03 Probably at or above 3% Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours 2017 Total risk
6 Risk of extinction over the next five centuries https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.3 At or above 30% John Leslie 1996 Total risk "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”
7 Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.5 ≤50% ("no better than fifty-fifty") Martin Rees 2003 Total risk
8 There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ 0.08 Median: 1%. Mean: 8%. Metaculus responders Total risk That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.
9 Existential disaster will do us in https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html 0.25 Probably at or above 25% Nick Bostrom 2002 Total risk
10 Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.05 5%. Gott III 1993 Total risk
11 Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.0035 0.3-0.4% Wells 2009 Total risk
12 Global catastrophic risk per year. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072 0.002 0.2% Simpson 2016 Total risk Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about "global catastrophic risk".
13 Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.5 50% (~1 in 2) Toby Ord 2020 Total risk
14 Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg 0.2 >20% Ozzie Gooen 2020 Total risk "I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
15 Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.1 ~10% Toby Ord 2020 AI
16 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% Global Catastrophic Risk Conference 2008 AI This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
17 Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 0.05 5% Survey of AI experts 2017 AI The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/
18 A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.05 0-10% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 AI
19 AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg 0.055 ~0.1-1% Ben Garfinkel 2020 AI Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied "I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
20 Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism 0.05 ~5% Rohin Shah 2020 AI This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/
21 AI-induced existential catastrophe https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ 0.5 50% Buck Schlegris 2020 AI
22 Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks 0.0005 0.05% James Fodor 2020 AI This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.
23 Existential risk from AI https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229 0.175 5-30% Stuart Armstrong 2020 AI "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased." I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.
24 Chance of humanity not surviving AI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40) 0.4 50, 40, or 33% Stuart Armstrong 2014 AI Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted "This number fluctuates a lot". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an "actually superintelligent" AI, whereas for "AI in general" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more "optimism" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.
25 Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/ 0.01 ~10% Paul Christiano 2019 AI He also says "I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number." And "All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."
26 Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?) https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854 41.5 33-50% Jaan Tallinn 2020 AI This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said "two obvious Schelling points" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.
27 Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.03 ~3% (~1 in 30) Toby Ord 2020 Biorisk
28 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.0005 0.05% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
29 Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.0001 ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000) Toby Ord 2020 Biorisk
30 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.02 2% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
31 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 0.00004 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8) Millet & Snyder-Beattie 2017 Biorisk The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include "accidental" release of a bioengineered pathogen.
32 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 0.0000019 0.00019% (0.0000019) Millet & Snyder-Beattie 2017 Biorisk
33 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.000001 0.0001% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 Biorisk The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for "synthetic biology" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.
34 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.000001 0.0001% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 Biorisk
35 Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks 0.000002 0.0002% James Fodor 2020 Biorisk This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.
36 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
37 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.005 0.5% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
38 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.0001 0.0100% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 Nanotechnology
39 Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.02 ~2% (~1 in 50) Toby Ord 2020 Nanotechnology See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)
40 Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do) https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810 0.33 ~33% ("about one in three") Toby Ord 2020 Total risk/conditional "Ord: ""one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen? My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together."" Arden Koehler replies ""Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?"" Ord replies: ""That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."""
41 The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 0.18 18% Survey of experts in the AI field 2016 AI/conditional This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was "4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
42 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism 0.1 ~10% Rohin Shah 2019 AI/conditional This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/
43 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism 0.7 ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates) Rohin Shah 2019 AI/conditional
44 Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.2 ~20% Toby Ord 2020 AI/conditional This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time. "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. [For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
45 Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.02 ~2% Toby Ord 2020 Nuclear/Conditional "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.
46 Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html 0.000055 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”) Luke Oman 2012 Nuclear/Conditional I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.
47 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.1 10% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
48 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.35 30-40% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
49 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.6 60% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
50 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.9 90% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
51 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.97 97% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
52 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 0.03 3% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
53 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905 0.1 10% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
54 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906 0.001 0.1% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
55 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907 0.25 25% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
56 At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 AI/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
57 At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 AI/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.
58 AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ 0.1 ~10% Adam Gleave 2019 AI/non-existential "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
59 AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ 0.25 ~20-30% Adam Gleave 2019 AI/non-existential
60 The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ 0.3 ~30% Rohin Shah 2020 AI/non-existential "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
61 We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ 0.3 ~30% Buck Schlegris 2020 AI/non-existential "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
62 We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.5 ~50% Toby Ord 2020 AI/non-existential "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
63 Soft AGI takeoff https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.7 70% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
64 By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.67 67% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
65 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.62 62% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
66 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.6 60% Pablo Stafforini 2015 AI/non-existential
67 Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.52 52% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
68 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.005 0.5% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
69 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.1 10% Pablo Stafforini 2015 AI/non-existential
70 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
71 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
72 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.6 60% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
73 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
74 At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.25 25% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
75 At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
76 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
77 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.01 1% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
78 At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
79 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
80 At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
81 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
82 chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.05 ~5% Toby Ord 2020 Nuclear/non-existential "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.
83 Per year chance of nuclear war https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 0.011 1.10% Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez 2019 Nuclear/non-existential "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.
84 Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 0.0038 0.38% Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez 2019 Nuclear/non-existential "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.
85 Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.5 50% Brian Tomasik 2015 Climate change/non-existential
86 At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.98 98% GCR Conference 2008 Miscellaneous/non-existential
87 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Miscellaneous/non-existential
88 Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.72 72% Brian Tomasik 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
89 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.72 72% Brian Tomasik 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
90 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.7 70% Pablo Stafforini 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
91 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.5 50% Brian Tomasik 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
92 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.1 10% Pablo Stafforini 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential

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[
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.17,
"actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
},
{
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.19,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
"probability": 0.01,
"platform": "Will MacAskill",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
"platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
"platform": "John Leslie",
"date_approx": 1996,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
"platform": "Martin Rees",
"date_approx": 2003,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"probability": 0.08,
"actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.",
"platform": "Metaculus responders",
"date_approx": "2021",
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
},
{
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
"platform": "Nick Bostrom",
"date_approx": 2002,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Gott III",
"date_approx": 1993,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0035,
"actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
"platform": "Wells",
"date_approx": 2009,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
"probability": 0.002,
"actualEstimate": "0.2%",
"platform": "Simpson",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
},
{
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": ">20%",
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Survey of AI experts",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "AI",
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
},
{
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "0-10%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
"probability": 0.055,
"actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
"platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF He might have updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
"probability": 0.175,
"actualEstimate": "5-30%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" He probably means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
},
{
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
"probability": 0.4,
"actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2014,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
"probability": 0.415,
"actualEstimate": "33-50%",
"platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.02,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.00004,
"actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.0000019,
"actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.000002,
"actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
"probability": 0.33,
"actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk/conditional",
"description": "Ord: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
},
{
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.18,
"platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. He updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.7,
"actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": "~20%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
},
{
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
"probability": 0.000055,
"actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
"platform": "Luke Oman",
"date_approx": 2012,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.35,
"actualEstimate": "30-40%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.9,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.97,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.03,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
"probability": 0.001,
"actualEstimate": "0.1%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
"probability": 0.25,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
},
{
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
},
{
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
},
{
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
},
{
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "~50%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
},
{
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.7,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.67,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.62,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.52,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.25,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.01,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.011,
"actualEstimate": "1.10%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.0038,
"actualEstimate": "0.38%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Climate change/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.98,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.7,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
}
]

858
data/older/xrisk-questions-raw.json
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@ -1,858 +0,0 @@
[
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.17,
"actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
},
{
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.19,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
"probability": 0.01,
"platform": "Will MacAskill",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
"platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
"platform": "John Leslie",
"date_approx": 1996,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
"platform": "Martin Rees",
"date_approx": 2003,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"probability": 0.08,
"actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.",
"platform": "Metaculus responders",
"date_approx": "2021",
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
},
{
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
"platform": "Nick Bostrom",
"date_approx": 2002,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Gott III",
"date_approx": 1993,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0035,
"actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
"platform": "Wells",
"date_approx": 2009,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
"probability": 0.002,
"actualEstimate": "0.2%",
"platform": "Simpson",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
},
{
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": ">20%",
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Survey of AI experts",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "AI",
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
},
{
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "0-10%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
"probability": 0.055,
"actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
"platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
"probability": 0.175,
"actualEstimate": "5-30%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
},
{
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
"probability": 0.4,
"actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2014,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
"probability": 0.415,
"actualEstimate": "33-50%",
"platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.02,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.00004,
"actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.0000019,
"actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.000002,
"actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
"probability": 0.33,
"actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk/conditional",
"description": "Ord: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
},
{
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.18,
"platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.7,
"actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": "~20%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
},
{
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
"probability": 0.000055,
"actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
"platform": "Luke Oman",
"date_approx": 2012,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.35,
"actualEstimate": "30-40%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.9,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.97,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.03,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
"probability": 0.001,
"actualEstimate": "0.1%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
"probability": 0.25,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
},
{
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
},
{
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
},
{
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
},
{
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "~50%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
},
{
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.7,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.67,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.62,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.52,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.25,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.01,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.011,
"actualEstimate": "1.10%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.0038,
"actualEstimate": "0.38%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Climate change/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.98,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.7,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
}
]

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Symbol,Security,SEC filings,GICS Sector,GICS Sub-Industry,Headquarters Location,Date first added,CIK,Founded
MMM,3M Company,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"St. Paul, Minnesota",1976-08-09,0000066740,1902
ABT,Abbott Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"North Chicago, Illinois",1964-03-31,0000001800,1888
ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"North Chicago, Illinois",2012-12-31,0001551152,2013 (1888)
ABMD,Abiomed,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Danvers, Massachusetts",2018-05-31,0000815094,1981
ACN,Accenture,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Dublin, Ireland",2011-07-06,0001467373,1989
ATVI,Activision Blizzard,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"Santa Monica, California",2015-08-31,0000718877,2008
ADBE,Adobe Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Jose, California",1997-05-05,0000796343,1982
AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",2017-03-20,0000002488,1969
AAP,Advance Auto Parts,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automotive Retail,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2015-07-09,0001158449,1932
AES,AES Corp,reports,Utilities,Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders,"Arlington, Virginia",1998-10-02,0000874761,1981
AFL,Aflac,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Columbus, Georgia",1999-05-28,0000004977,1955
A,Agilent Technologies,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",2000-06-05,0001090872,1999
APD,Air Products & Chemicals,reports,Materials,Industrial Gases,"Allentown, Pennsylvania",1985-04-30,0000002969,1940
AKAM,Akamai Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Internet Services & Infrastructure,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2007-07-12,0001086222,1998
ALK,Alaska Air Group,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Seattle, Washington",2016-05-13,0000766421,1985
ALB,Albemarle Corporation,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Charlotte, North Carolina",2016-07-01,0000915913,1994
ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"Pasadena, California",2017-03-20,0001035443,1994
ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Boston, Massachusetts",2012-05-25,0000899866,1992
ALGN,Align Technology,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"San Jose, California",2017-06-19,0001097149,1997
ALLE,Allegion,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Dublin, Ireland",2013-12-02,0001579241,1908
LNT,Alliant Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Madison, Wisconsin",2016-07-01,0000352541,1917
ALL,Allstate Corp,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Northfield Township, Illinois",1995-07-13,0000899051,1931
GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Mountain View, California",2014-04-03,0001652044,1998
GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Mountain View, California",2006-04-03,0001652044,1998
MO,Altria Group Inc,reports,Consumer Staples,Tobacco,"Richmond, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000764180,1985
AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Seattle, Washington",2005-11-18,0001018724,1994
AMCR,Amcor plc,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Warmley, Bristol, United Kingdom",2019-06-07,0001748790,2019 (1860)
AEE,Ameren Corp,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"St. Louis, Missouri",1991-09-19,0001002910,1902
AAL,American Airlines Group,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Fort Worth, Texas",2015-03-23,0000006201,1934
AEP,American Electric Power,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Columbus, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000004904,1906
AXP,American Express,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"New York, New York",1976-06-30,0000004962,1850
AIG,American International Group,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"New York, New York",1980-03-31,0000005272,1919
AMT,American Tower Corp.,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2007-11-19,0001053507,1995
AWK,American Water Works,reports,Utilities,Water Utilities,"Camden, New Jersey",2016-03-04,0001410636,1886
AMP,Ameriprise Financial,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",2005-10-03,0000820027,1894
ABC,AmerisourceBergen,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania",2001-08-30,0001140859,1985
AME,Ametek,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Berwyn, Pennsylvania",2013-09-23,0001037868,1930
AMGN,Amgen Inc.,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Thousand Oaks, California",1992-01-02,0000318154,1980
APH,Amphenol Corp,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Components,"Wallingford, Connecticut",2008-09-30,0000820313,1932
ADI,"Analog Devices, Inc.",reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Norwood, Massachusetts",1999-10-12,0000006281,1965
ANSS,"ANSYS, Inc.",reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Canonsburg, Pennsylvania",2017-06-19,0001013462,1969
ANTM,Anthem,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2002-07-25,0001156039,2014 (1946)
AON,Aon plc,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"London, United Kingdom",1996-04-23,0000315293,1982 (1919)
AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2017-07-26,0000091142,1916
APA,APA Corporation,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1997-07-28,0000006769,1954
AAPL,Apple Inc.,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Cupertino, California",1982-11-30,0000320193,1977
AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",1995-03-16,0000006951,1967
APTV,Aptiv PLC,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Auto Parts & Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",2012-12-24,0001521332,1994
ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,reports,Consumer Staples,Agricultural Products,"Chicago, Illinois",1981-07-29,0000007084,1902
ANET,Arista Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",2018-08-28,0001596532,2004
AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"Rolling Meadows, Illinois",2016-05-31,0000354190,1927
AIZ,Assurant,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"New York, New York",2007-04-10,0001267238,1892
T,AT&T Inc.,reports,Communication Services,Integrated Telecommunication Services,"Dallas, Texas",1983-11-30 (1957-03-04),0000732717,1983 (1885)
ATO,Atmos Energy,reports,Utilities,Gas Utilities,"Dallas, Texas",2019-02-15,0000731802,1906
ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Rafael, California",1989-12-01,0000769397,1982
ADP,Automatic Data Processing,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Roseland, New Jersey",1981-03-31,0000008670,1949
AZO,AutoZone Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Memphis, Tennessee",1997-01-02,0000866787,1979
AVB,AvalonBay Communities,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Arlington, Virginia[3]",2007-01-10,0000915912,1978
AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Glendale, California",1987-12-31,0000008818,1990
BKR,Baker Hughes Co,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",2017-07-07,0001701605,2017
BLL,Ball Corp,reports,Materials,Metal & Glass Containers,"Broomfield, Colorado",1984-10-31,0000009389,1880
BAC,Bank of America Corp,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1976-06-30,0000070858,1998 (1923 / 1874)
BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"New York, New York",1995-03-31,0001390777,1784
BAX,Baxter International Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Deerfield, Illinois",1972-09-30,0000010456,1931
BDX,Becton Dickinson,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Franklin Lakes, New Jersey",1972-09-30,0000010795,1897
BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,reports,Financials,Multi-Sector Holdings,"Omaha, Nebraska",2010-02-16,0001067983,1839
BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Computer & Electronics Retail,"Richfield, Minnesota",1999-06-29,0000764478,1966
BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Hercules, California",2020-06-22,0000012208,1952
BIIB,Biogen Inc.,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2003-11-13,0000875045,1978
BLK,BlackRock,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"New York, New York",2011-04-04,0001364742,1988
BA,Boeing Company,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Chicago, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000012927,1916
BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Norwalk, Connecticut",2009-11-06,0001075531,1996
BWA,BorgWarner,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Auto Parts & Equipment,"Auburn Hills, Michigan",2011-12-19,0000908255,1880
BXP,Boston Properties,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2006-04-03,0001037540,1970
BSX,Boston Scientific,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Marlborough, Massachusetts[4]",1995-02-24,0000885725,1979
BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000014272,1989
AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",2014-05-08,0001730168,1961
BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Lake Success, New York",2018-06-18,0001383312,1962
BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Distillers & Vintners,"Louisville, Kentucky",1982-10-31,0000014693,1870
CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Eden Prairie, Minnesota",2007-03-02,0001043277,1905
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",2008-06-23,0000858470,1989
CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Jose, California",2017-09-18,0000813672,1988
CPB,Campbell Soup,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Camden, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000016732,1869
COF,Capital One Financial,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Tysons Corner, Virginia",1998-07-01,0000927628,1935
CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Dublin, Ohio",1997-05-27,0000721371,1971
KMX,Carmax Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Richmond, Virginia",2010-06-28,0001170010,1993
CCL,Carnival Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",1998-12-22,0000815097,1972
CARR,Carrier Global,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Palm Beach Gardens, Florida",2020-04-03,0001783180,2020 (1915)
CTLT,Catalent,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Somerset, New Jersey",2020-09-21,0001596783,2007
CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Deerfield, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000018230,1925
CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Chicago, Illinois",2017-03-01,0001374310,1973
CBRE,CBRE Group,reports,Real Estate,Real Estate Services,"Dallas, Texas",2006-11-10,0001138118,1906
CDW,CDW,reports,Information Technology,Technology Distributors,"Lincolnshire, Illinois",2019-09-23,0001402057,1984
CE,Celanese,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Irving, Texas",2018-12-24,0001306830,1918
CNC,Centene Corporation,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"St. Louis, Missouri",2016-03-30,0001071739,1984
CNP,CenterPoint Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Houston, Texas",1985-07-31,0001130310,1882
CERN,Cerner,reports,Health Care,Health Care Technology,"North Kansas City, Missouri",2010-04-30,0000804753,1979
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Deerfield, Illinois",2008-08-27,0001324404,1946
SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"Westlake, Texas",1997-06-02,0000316709,1971
CHTR,Charter Communications,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Stamford, Connecticut",2016-09-08,0001091667,1993
CVX,Chevron Corp.,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"San Ramon, California",1957-03-04,0000093410,1879
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Newport Beach, California",2011-04-28,0001058090,1993
CB,Chubb Limited,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Zurich, Switzerland",2010-07-15,0000896159,1985
CHD,Church & Dwight,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Ewing, New Jersey",2015-12-29,0000313927,1847
CI,Cigna,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Bloomfield, Connecticut",1976-06-30,0001739940,1982
CINF,Cincinnati Financial,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Fairfield, Ohio",1997-12-18,0000020286,1950
CTAS,Cintas Corporation,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Mason, Ohio",2001-03-01,0000723254,1929
CSCO,Cisco Systems,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"San Jose, California",1993-12-01,0000858877,1984
C,Citigroup Inc.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"New York, New York",1988-05-31,0000831001,1998
CFG,Citizens Financial Group,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Providence, Rhode Island",2016-01-29,0000759944,1828
CTXS,Citrix Systems,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Fort Lauderdale, Florida",1999-12-01,0000877890,1989
CLX,The Clorox Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Oakland, California",1969-03-31,0000021076,1913
CME,CME Group Inc.,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Chicago, Illinois",2006-08-11,0001156375,1848
CMS,CMS Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Jackson, Michigan",1999-05-03,0000811156,1886
KO,Coca-Cola Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Atlanta, Georgia",1957-03-04,0000021344,1886
CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Teaneck, New Jersey",2006-11-17,0001058290,1994
CL,Colgate-Palmolive,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000021665,1806
CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2002-11-19,0001166691,1963
CMA,Comerica Inc.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Dallas, Texas",1995-12-01,0000028412,1849
CAG,Conagra Brands,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois",1983-08-31,0000023217,1919
COP,ConocoPhillips,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1957-03-04,0001163165,2002
ED,Consolidated Edison,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"New York, New York",,0001047862,1823
STZ,Constellation Brands,reports,Consumer Staples,Distillers & Vintners,"Victor, New York",2005-07-01,0000016918,1945
COO,The Cooper Companies,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"San Ramon, California",2016-09-23,0000711404,1958
CPRT,Copart Inc,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Dallas, Texas",2018-07-02,0000900075,1982
GLW,Corning Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Components,"Corning, New York",,0000024741,1851
CTVA,Corteva,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Wilmington, Delaware",2019-06-03,0001755672,2019
COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Hypermarkets & Super Centers,"Issaquah, Washington",1993-10-01,0000909832,1976
CCI,Crown Castle,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Houston, Texas",2012-03-14,0001051470,1994
CSX,CSX Corp.,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Jacksonville, Florida",1967-09-30,0000277948,1980
CMI,Cummins Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Columbus, Indiana",1965-03-31,0000026172,1919
CVS,CVS Health,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Woonsocket, Rhode Island",1957-03-04,0000064803,1996
DHI,D. R. Horton,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Arlington, Texas",2005-06-22,0000882184,1978
DHR,Danaher Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Washington, D.C.",,0000313616,1969
DRI,Darden Restaurants,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Orlando, Florida",,0000940944,1938
DVA,DaVita Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"Denver, Colorado",2008-07-31,0000927066,1979
DE,Deere & Co.,reports,Industrials,Agricultural & Farm Machinery,"Moline, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000315189,1837
DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Atlanta, Georgia",2013-09-11,0000027904,1929
XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"Charlotte, North Carolina",2008-11-14,0000818479,2016 (1969)
DVN,Devon Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Oklahoma City, Oklahoma",2000-08-30,0001090012,1971
DXCM,DexCom,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"San Diego, California",2020-05-12,0001093557,1999
FANG,Diamondback Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Midland, Texas",2018-12-03,0001539838,2007
DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Austin, Texas",2016-05-18,0001297996,2004
DFS,Discover Financial Services,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Riverwoods, Illinois",2007-07-02,0001393612,1985
DISCA,"Discovery, Inc. (Series A)",reports,Communication Services,Broadcasting,"New York, New York",2010-03-01,0001437107,1985
DISCK,"Discovery, Inc. (Series C)",reports,Communication Services,Broadcasting,"New York, New York",2014-08-07,0001437107,1985
DISH,Dish Network,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Meridian, Colorado",2017-03-13,0001001082,1980
DG,Dollar General,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Goodlettsville, Tennessee",2012-12-03,0000029534,1939
DLTR,Dollar Tree,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Chesapeake, Virginia",2011-12-19,0000935703,1986
D,Dominion Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Richmond, Virginia",,0000715957,1983
DPZ,Domino's Pizza,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Ann Arbor, Michigan",2020-05-12,0001286681,1960
DOV,Dover Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Downers Grove, Illinois",1985-10-31,0000029905,1955
DOW,Dow Inc.,reports,Materials,Commodity Chemicals,"Midland, Michigan",2019-04-01,0001751788,2019
DTE,DTE Energy Co.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Detroit, Michigan",1957-03-04,0000936340,1995
DUK,Duke Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1976-06-30,0001326160,1904
DRE,Duke Realty Corp,reports,Real Estate,Industrial REITs,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2017-07-26,0000783280,1972
DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Wilmington, Delaware",2019-04-02,0001666700,2017
DXC,DXC Technology,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Tysons Corner, Virginia",2017-04-04,0001688568,2017
EMN,Eastman Chemical,reports,Materials,Diversified Chemicals,"Kingsport, Tennessee",1994-01-01,0000915389,1920
ETN,Eaton Corporation,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",,0001551182,1911
EBAY,eBay Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"San Jose, California",2002-07-22,0001065088,1995
ECL,Ecolab Inc.,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"St. Paul, Minnesota",1989-01-31,0000031462,1923
EIX,Edison Int'l,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Rosemead, California",1957-03-04,0000827052,1886
EW,Edwards Lifesciences,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Irvine, California",2011-04-01,0001099800,1958
EA,Electronic Arts,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"Redwood City, California",2002-07-22,0000712515,1982
EMR,Emerson Electric Company,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Ferguson, Missouri",1965-03-31,0000032604,1890
ENPH,Enphase Energy,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Fremont, California",2021-01-07,0001463101,2006
ETR,Entergy Corp.,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"New Orleans, Louisiana",1957-03-04,0000065984,1913
EOG,EOG Resources,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",2000-11-02,0000821189,1999
EFX,Equifax Inc.,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",1997-06-19,0000033185,1899
EQIX,Equinix,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Redwood City, California",2015-03-20,0001101239,1998
EQR,Equity Residential,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Chicago, Illinois",2001-12-03,0000906107,1969
ESS,"Essex Property Trust, Inc.",reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"San Mateo, California",2014-04-02,0000920522,1971
EL,Estée Lauder Companies,reports,Consumer Staples,Personal Products,"New York, New York",2006-01-05,0001001250,1946
ETSY,Etsy,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Brooklyn, New York",2020-09-21,0001370637,2005
EVRG,Evergy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Kansas City, Missouri",2018-06-05,0001711269,1909
ES,Eversource Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Hartford, Connecticut",,0000072741,1966
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,reports,Financials,Reinsurance,"Hamilton, Bermuda",2017-06-19,0001095073,1973
EXC,Exelon Corp.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Chicago, Illinois",1957-03-04,0001109357,2000
EXPE,Expedia Group,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Seattle, Washington",2007-10-02,0001324424,1996
EXPD,Expeditors,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Seattle, Washington",2007-10-10,0000746515,1979
EXR,Extra Space Storage,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Salt Lake City, Utah",2016-01-19,0001289490,1977
XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"Irving, Texas",1957-03-04,0000034088,1999
FFIV,F5 Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Seattle, Washington",2010-12-20,0001048695,1996
FB,"Facebook, Inc.",reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Menlo Park, California",2013-12-23,0001326801,2004
FAST,Fastenal Co,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Winona, Minnesota",2008-09-15,0000815556,1967
FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Rockville, Maryland",2016-02-01,0000034903,1962
FDX,FedEx Corporation,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Memphis, Tennessee",1980-12-31,0001048911,1971
FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Jacksonville, Florida",2006-11-10,0001136893,1968
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Cincinnati, Ohio",,0000035527,1858
FE,FirstEnergy Corp,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Akron, Ohio",,0001031296,1997
FRC,First Republic Bank,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"San Francisco, California",2019-01-02,0001132979,1985
FISV,Fiserv Inc,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Brookfield, Wisconsin",2001-04-02,0000798354,1984
FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Norcross, Georgia",2018-06-20,0001175454,2000
FLIR,FLIR Systems,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Wilsonville, Oregon",2009-01-02,0000354908,1978
FLS,Flowserve Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Irving, Texas",2008-10-02,0000030625,1997
FMC,FMC Corporation,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2009-08-19,0000037785,1883
F,Ford Motor Company,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Dearborn, Michigan",1957-03-04,0000037996,1903
FTNT,Fortinet,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Sunnyvale, California",2018-10-11,0001262039,2000
FTV,Fortive Corp,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Everett, Washington",2016-07-01,0001659166,2016
FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Deerfield, Illinois",2016-06-22,0001519751,2011 (1969)
FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",2013-07-01,0001754301,2019
FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",2015-09-18,0001754301,2019
BEN,Franklin Resources,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"San Mateo, California",,0000038777,1947
FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,reports,Materials,Copper,"Phoenix, Arizona",,0000831259,1912
GPS,Gap Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"San Francisco, California",1986-08-31,0000039911,1969
GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Consumer Electronics,"Schaffhausen, Switzerland",2012-12-12,0001121788,1989
IT,Gartner Inc,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Stamford, Connecticut",2017-04-05,0000749251,1979
GD,General Dynamics,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Falls Church, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000040533,1899
GE,General Electric,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Boston, Massachusetts",,0000040545,1892
GIS,General Mills,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Golden Valley, Minnesota",1969-03-31,0000040704,1856
GM,General Motors,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Detroit, Michigan",2013-06-06,0001467858,1908
GPC,Genuine Parts,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Atlanta, Georgia",1973-12-31,0000040987,1925
GILD,Gilead Sciences,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Foster City, California",2004-07-01,0000882095,1987
GL,Globe Life Inc.,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"McKinney, Texas",1989-04-30,0000320335,1900
GPN,Global Payments Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",2016-04-25,0001123360,2000
GS,Goldman Sachs Group,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"New York, New York",2002-07-22,0000886982,1869
GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Lake Forest, Illinois",1981-06-30,0000277135,1927
HAL,Halliburton Co.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",1957-03-04,0000045012,1919
HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Winston-Salem, North Carolina",2015-03-20,0001359841,2000
HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Hartford, Connecticut",1957-03-04,0000874766,1810
HAS,Hasbro Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Leisure Products,"Pawtucket, Rhode Island",1984-09-30,0000046080,1923
HCA,HCA Healthcare,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"Nashville, Tennessee",2015-01-27,0000860730,1968
PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Long Beach, California",2008-03-31,0000765880,1985
HSIC,Henry Schein,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Melville, New York",2015-03-17,0001000228,1932
HSY,The Hershey Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Hershey, Pennsylvania",1957-03-04,0000047111,1894
HES,Hess Corporation,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"New York, New York",1984-05-31,0000004447,1919
HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Houston, Texas",2015-11-02,0001645590,2015
HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Tysons Corner, Virginia",2017-06-19,0001585689,1919
HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Dallas, Texas",2018-06-18,0000048039,1947
HOLX,Hologic,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Marlborough, Massachusetts",2016-03-30,0000859737,1985
HD,Home Depot,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Improvement Retail,"Atlanta, Georgia",1988-03-31,0000354950,1978
HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Morristown, New Jersey",1964-03-31,0000773840,1906
HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Austin, Minnesota",2009-03-04,0000048465,1891
HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,reports,Real Estate,Hotel & Resort REITs,"Bethesda, Maryland",2007-03-20,0001070750,1993
HWM,Howmet Aerospace,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1964-03-31,0000004281,2016
HPQ,HP Inc.,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Palo Alto, California",1974-12-31,0000047217,1939 (2015)
HUM,Humana Inc.,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Louisville, Kentucky",,0000049071,1961
HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Columbus, Ohio",,0000049196,1866
HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Newport News, Virginia",2018-01-03,0001501585,2011
IEX,IDEX Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Lake Forest, Illinois",2019-08-09,0000832101,1988
IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Westbrook, Maine",2017-01-05,0000874716,1983
INFO,IHS Markit,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"London, United Kingdom",2017-06-02,0001598014,1959
ITW,Illinois Tool Works,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Glenview, Illinois",1986-02-28,0000049826,1912
ILMN,Illumina Inc,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"San Diego, California",2015-11-19,0001110803,1998
INCY,Incyte,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Wilmington, Delaware",2017-02-28,0000879169,1991
IR,Ingersoll Rand,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2020-03-03,0001699150,1859
INTC,Intel Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",1976-12-31,0000050863,1968
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Atlanta, Georgia",2007-09-26,0001571949,2000
IBM,International Business Machines,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Armonk, New York",1957-03-04,0000051143,1911
IP,International Paper,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Memphis, Tennessee",1957-03-04,0000051434,1898
IPG,Interpublic Group,reports,Communication Services,Advertising,"New York, New York",1992-10-01,0000051644,1961 (1930)
IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"New York, New York",1976-03-31,0000051253,1958 (1889)
INTU,Intuit Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Mountain View, California",2000-12-05,0000896878,1983
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Sunnyvale, California",2008-06-02,0001035267,1995
IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Atlanta, Georgia",2008-08-21,0000914208,1935
IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Manufacturing Services,"Oxford, Massachusetts",2018-03-07,0001111928,1990
IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Durham, North Carolina",2017-08-29,0001478242,1982
IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2009-01-06,0001020569,1951
JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Monett, Missouri",2018-11-13,0000779152,1976
J,Jacobs Engineering Group,reports,Industrials,Construction & Engineering,"Dallas, Texas",2007-10-26,0000052988,1947
JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,reports,Industrials,Trucking,"Lowell, Arkansas",2015-07-01,0000728535,1961
SJM,JM Smucker,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Orrville, Ohio",2008-11-06,0000091419,1897
JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"New Brunswick, New Jersey",1973-06-30,0000200406,1886
JCI,Johnson Controls International,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Cork, Ireland",2010-08-27,0000833444,1885
JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"New York, New York",1975-06-30,0000019617,2000 (1799 / 1871)
JNPR,Juniper Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Sunnyvale, California",2006-06-02,0001043604,1996
KSU,Kansas City Southern,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Kansas City, Missouri",2013-05-24,0000054480,1887
K,Kellogg Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Battle Creek, Michigan",,0000055067,1906
KEY,KeyCorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Cleveland, Ohio",1994-03-01,0000091576,1825
KEYS,Keysight Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Santa Rosa, California",2018-11-06,0001601046,2014
KMB,Kimberly-Clark,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Irving, Texas",1957-03-04,0000055785,1872
KIM,Kimco Realty,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"New Hyde Park, New York",2006-04-04,0000879101,1958
KMI,Kinder Morgan,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Houston, Texas",2012-05-25,0001506307,1997
KLAC,KLA Corporation,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Milpitas, California",,0000319201,1975/1977 (1997)
KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",2015-07-06,0001637459,2015 (1869)
KR,Kroger Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Food Retail,"Cincinnati, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000056873,1883
LB,L Brands Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Columbus, Ohio",1983-09-30,0000701985,1963
LHX,L3Harris Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Melbourne, Florida",2008-09-22,0000202058,2019 (1895)
LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Burlington, North Carolina",2004-11-01,0000920148,1978
LRCX,Lam Research,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Fremont, California",2012-06-29,0000707549,1980
LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Eagle, Idaho",2018-12-03,0001679273,2016 (1950)
LVS,Las Vegas Sands,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Las Vegas, Nevada",2019-10-03,0001300514,1988
LEG,Leggett & Platt,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Furnishings,"Carthage, Missouri",,0000058492,1883
LDOS,Leidos Holdings,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Reston, Virginia",2019-08-09,0001336920,1969
LEN,Lennar Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Miami, Florida",2005-10-04,0000920760,1954
LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Indianapolis, Indiana",1970-12-31,0000059478,1876
LNC,Lincoln National,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"Radnor, Pennsylvania",1976-06-30,0000059558,1905
LIN,Linde plc,reports,Materials,Industrial Gases,"Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom",1992-07-01,0001707925,1879
LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Beverly Hills, California",2019-12-23,0001335258,2010
LKQ,LKQ Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Distributors,"Chicago, Illinois",2016-05-23,0001065696,1998
LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Bethesda, Maryland",1984-07-31,0000936468,1995
L,Loews Corp.,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"New York, New York",,0000060086,1959
LOW,Lowe's Cos.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Improvement Retail,"Mooresville, North Carolina",1984-02-29,0000060667,1904/1946/1959
LUMN,Lumen Technologies,reports,Communication Services,Alternative Carriers,"Monroe, Louisiana",1999-03-25,0000018926,1983 (1877)
LYB,LyondellBasell,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Rotterdam, Netherlands",2012-09-05,0001489393,2007
MTB,M&T Bank,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Buffalo, New York",2004-02-23,0000036270,1856
MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1991-05-01,0000101778,1887
MPC,Marathon Petroleum,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Findlay, Ohio",2011-07-01,0001510295,2009 (1887)
MKTX,MarketAxess,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2019-07-01,0001278021,2000
MAR,Marriott International,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Bethesda, Maryland",,0001048286,1927
MMC,Marsh & McLennan,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"New York, New York",1987-08-31,0000062709,1905
MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,reports,Materials,Construction Materials,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2014-07-02,0000916076,1993
MAS,Masco Corp.,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Livonia, Michigan",1981-06-30,0000062996,1929
MA,Mastercard Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Harrison, New York",2008-07-18,0001141391,1966
MKC,McCormick & Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Hunt Valley, Maryland",,0000063754,1889
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",2018-12-03,0000743316,1983
MCD,McDonald's Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Chicago, Illinois",1970-06-30,0000063908,1940
MCK,McKesson Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Irving, Texas",,0000927653,1833
MDT,Medtronic plc,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",1986-10-31,0001613103,1949
MRK,Merck & Co.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Kenilworth, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000310158,1891
MET,MetLife Inc.,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"New York, New York",,0001099219,1868
MTD,Mettler Toledo,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Columbus, Ohio",2016-09-06,0001037646,1945
MGM,MGM Resorts International,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Paradise, Nevada",2017-07-26,0000789570,1986
MCHP,Microchip Technology,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Chandler, Arizona",2007-09-07,0000827054,1989
MU,Micron Technology,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Boise, Idaho",1994-09-27,0000723125,1978
MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Redmond, Washington",1994-06-01,0000789019,1975
MAA,Mid-America Apartments,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Memphis, Tennessee",2016-12-02,0000912595,1977
MHK,Mohawk Industries,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Furnishings,"Calhoun, Georgia",2013-12-23,0000851968,1878
TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Brewers,"Denver, Colorado",1976-06-30,0000024545,"2005 (Molson 1786, Coors 1873)"
MDLZ,Mondelez International,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois",2012-10-02,0001103982,2012
MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Kirkland, Washington",2021-02-12,0001280452,1997
MNST,Monster Beverage,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Corona, California",2012-06-28,0000865752,2012 (1935)
MCO,Moody's Corp,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",,0001059556,1909
MS,Morgan Stanley,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"New York, New York",,0000895421,1935
MOS,The Mosaic Company,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Tampa, Florida",2011-09-26,0001285785,2004 (1865 / 1909)
MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Chicago, Illinois",,0000068505,1928 (2011)
MSCI,MSCI Inc,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2018-04-04,0001408198,1969
NDAQ,"Nasdaq, Inc.",reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2008-10-22,0001120193,1971
NTAP,NetApp,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Sunnyvale, California",1999-06-25,0001002047,1992
NFLX,Netflix Inc.,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Los Gatos, California",2010-12-20,0001065280,1997
NWL,Newell Brands,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Housewares & Specialties,"Atlanta, Georgia",1989-04-30,0000814453,1903
NEM,Newmont Corporation,reports,Materials,Gold,"Denver, Colorado",1969-06-30,0001164727,1921
NWSA,News Corp (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Publishing,"New York, New York",2013-08-01,0001564708,2013 (1980)
NWS,News Corp (Class B),reports,Communication Services,Publishing,"New York, New York",2015-09-18,0001564708,2013 (1980)
NEE,NextEra Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Juno Beach, Florida",1976-06-30,0000753308,1984 (1925)
NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"New York, New York",2013-07-09,0001492633,1923
NKE,"Nike, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Washington County, Oregon",1988-11-30,0000320187,1964
NI,NiSource Inc.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Merrillville, Indiana",,0001111711,1912
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Norfolk, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000702165,1881/1894 (1980)
NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Chicago, Illinois",,0000073124,1889
NOC,Northrop Grumman,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"West Falls Church, Virginia",1985-06-30,0001133421,"1994 (Northrop 1939, Grumman 1930)"
NLOK,NortonLifeLock,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Tempe, Arizona",2003-03-25,0000849399,1982
NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",2017-10-13,0001513761,2011 (1966)
NOV,NOV Inc.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",2005-03-14,0001021860,1841
NRG,NRG Energy,reports,Utilities,Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders,"Princeton, New Jersey",2010-01-29,0001013871,1992
NUE,Nucor Corp.,reports,Materials,Steel,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1985-04-30,0000073309,1940
NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",2001-11-30,0001045810,1993
NVR,"NVR, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Reston, Virginia",2019-09-26,0000906163,1980
ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Springfield, Missouri",2009-03-27,0000898173,1957
OXY,Occidental Petroleum,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1982-12-31,0000797468,1920
ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,reports,Industrials,Trucking,"Thomasville, North Carolina",2019-12-09,0000878927,1934
OMC,Omnicom Group,reports,Communication Services,Advertising,"New York, New York",,0000029989,1986
OKE,Oneok,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Tulsa, Oklahoma",2010-03-15,0001039684,1906
ORCL,Oracle Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Austin, Texas",1989-08-31,0001341439,1977
OTIS,Otis Worldwide,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Farmington, Connecticut",2020-04-03,0001781335,2020 (1853)
PCAR,Paccar,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Bellevue, Washington",1980-12-31,0000075362,1905
PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Lake Forest, Illinois",2017-07-26,0000075677,1959
PH,Parker-Hannifin,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Cleveland, Ohio",1985-11-30,0000076334,1917
PAYX,Paychex Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Penfield, New York",,0000723531,1971
PAYC,Paycom,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Oklahoma City, Oklahoma",2020-01-28,0001590955,1998
PYPL,PayPal,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"San Jose, California",2015-07-20,0001633917,1998
PNR,Pentair plc,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Worsley, UK",2012-10-01,0000077360,1966
PBCT,People's United Financial,reports,Financials,Thrifts & Mortgage Finance,"Bridgeport, Connecticut",2008-11-13,0001378946,1842
PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Purchase, New York",1957-03-04,0000077476,1898
PKI,PerkinElmer,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Waltham, Massachusetts",1985-05-31,0000031791,1937
PRGO,Perrigo,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Dublin, Ireland",2011-12-19,0001585364,2013 (1887)
PFE,Pfizer Inc.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000078003,1849
PM,Philip Morris International,reports,Consumer Staples,Tobacco,"New York, New York",2008-03-31,0001413329,2008 (1847)
PSX,Phillips 66,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Houston, Texas",2012-05-01,0001534701,2012 (1917)
PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Phoenix, Arizona",,0000764622,1985
PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Irving, Texas",2008-09-24,0001038357,1997
PNC,PNC Financial Services,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1988-04-30,0000713676,1845
POOL,Pool Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Distributors,"Covington, Louisiana",2020-10-07,0000945841,1993
PPG,PPG Industries,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1957-03-04,0000079879,1883
PPL,PPL Corp.,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Allentown, Pennsylvania",,0000922224,1920
PFG,Principal Financial Group,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Des Moines, Iowa",2002-07-22,0001126328,1879
PG,Procter & Gamble,reports,Consumer Staples,Personal Products,"Cincinnati, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000080424,1837
PGR,Progressive Corp.,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Mayfield Village, Ohio",1997-08-04,0000080661,1937
PLD,Prologis,reports,Real Estate,Industrial REITs,"San Francisco, California",2003-07-17,0001045609,1983
PRU,Prudential Financial,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Newark, New Jersey",2002-07-22,0001137774,1875
PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Newark, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000788784,1903
PSA,Public Storage,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Glendale, California",2005-08-19,0001393311,1972
PHM,PulteGroup,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Atlanta, Georgia",1984-04-30,0000822416,1956
PVH,PVH Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",2013-02-15,0000078239,1881
QRVO,Qorvo,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Greensboro, North Carolina",2015-06-11,0001604778,2015
PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,reports,Industrials,Construction & Engineering,"Houston, Texas",2009-07-01,0001050915,1997
QCOM,Qualcomm,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Diego, California",,0000804328,1985
DGX,Quest Diagnostics,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Secaucus, New Jersey",2002-12-12,0001022079,1967
RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",2007-02-02,0001037038,1967
RJF,Raymond James Financial,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"St. Petersburg, Florida",2017-03-20,0000720005,1962
RTX,Raytheon Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Waltham, Massachusetts",,0000101829,1922
O,Realty Income Corporation,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"San Diego, California",2015-04-07,0000726728,1969
REG,Regency Centers Corporation,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Jacksonville, Florida",2017-03-02,0000910606,1963
REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Tarrytown, New York",2013-05-01,0000872589,1988
RF,Regions Financial Corp.,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Birmingham, Alabama",1998-08-28,0001281761,1971
RSG,Republic Services Inc,reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Phoenix, Arizona",2008-12-05,0001060391,1998 (1981)
RMD,ResMed,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"San Diego, California",2017-07-26,0000943819,1989
RHI,Robert Half International,reports,Industrials,Human Resource & Employment Services,"Menlo Park, California",2000-12-05,0000315213,1948
ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",,0001024478,1903
ROL,"Rollins, Inc.",reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",2018-10-01,0000084839,1948
ROP,Roper Technologies,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Sarasota, Florida",2009-12-23,0000882835,1981
ROST,Ross Stores,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Dublin, California",2009-12-21,0000745732,1982
RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",2014-12-05,0000884887,1997
SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",,0000064040,1917
CRM,Salesforce.com,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Francisco, California",2008-09-15,0001108524,1999
SBAC,SBA Communications,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boca Raton, Florida",2017-09-01,0001034054,1989
SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Curaçao, Kingdom of the Netherlands",1965-03-31,0000087347,1926
STX,Seagate Technology,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Dublin, Ireland",2012-07-02,0001137789,1979
SEE,Sealed Air,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1957-03-04,0001012100,1960
SRE,Sempra Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"San Diego, California",,0001032208,1998
NOW,ServiceNow,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Santa Clara, California",2019-11-21,0001373715,2003
SHW,Sherwin-Williams,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Cleveland, Ohio",1964-06-30,0000089800,1866
SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2002-06-26,0001063761,2003
SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Woburn, Massachusetts",2015-03-12,0000004127,2002
SLG,SL Green Realty,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"New York, New York",2015-03-20,0001040971,1997
SNA,Snap-on,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Kenosha, Wisconsin",1982-09-30,0000091440,1920
SO,Southern Company,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Atlanta, Georgia",1957-03-04,0000092122,1945
LUV,Southwest Airlines,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Dallas, Texas",1994-07-01,0000092380,1967
SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"New Britain, Connecticut",1982-09-30,0000093556,1843
SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Seattle, Washington",,0000829224,1971
STT,State Street Corp.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Boston, Massachusetts",,0000093751,1792
STE,Steris,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",2019-12-23,0001757898,1985
SYK,Stryker Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Kalamazoo, Michigan",2000-12-12,0000310764,1941
SIVB,SVB Financial,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Santa Clara, California",2018-03-19,0000719739,1983
SYF,Synchrony Financial,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Stamford, Connecticut",2015-11-18,0001601712,2003
SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Mountain View, California",2017-03-16,0000883241,1986
SYY,Sysco Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Food Distributors,"Houston, Texas",1986-12-31,0000096021,1969
TMUS,T-Mobile US,reports,Communication Services,Wireless Telecommunication Services,"Bellevue, Washington",2019-07-15,0001283699,1994
TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Baltimore, Maryland",,0001113169,1937
TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"New York, New York",2018-03-19,0000946581,1993
TPR,"Tapestry, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",,0001116132,2017
TGT,Target Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",1976-12-31,0000027419,1902
TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Manufacturing Services,"Schaffhausen, Switzerland",2011-10-17,0001385157,2007
TDY,Teledyne Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Thousand Oaks, California",2020-06-22,0001094285,1960
TFX,Teleflex,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Wayne, Pennsylvania",2019-01-18,0000096943,1943
TER,Teradyne,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"North Reading, Massachusetts",2020-09-21,0000097210,1960
TSLA,"Tesla, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Palo Alto, California",2020-12-21,0001318605,2003
TXN,Texas Instruments,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Dallas, Texas",,0000097476,1930
TXT,Textron Inc.,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Providence, Rhode Island",1978-12-31,0000217346,1923
TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Waltham, Massachusetts",2004-08-03,0000097745,2006 (1902)
TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Framingham, Massachusetts",1985-09-30,0000109198,1987
TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Brentwood, Tennessee",2014-01-24,0000916365,1938
TT,Trane Technologies plc,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Dublin, Ireland",2010-11-17,0001466258,1871
TDG,TransDigm Group,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Cleveland, Ohio",2016-06-03,0001260221,1993
TRV,The Travelers Companies,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"New York, New York",2002-08-21,0000086312,1853
TRMB,Trimble Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Sunnyvale, California",2021-01-21,0000864749,1978
TFC,Truist Financial,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1997-12-04,0000092230,1872
TWTR,"Twitter, Inc.",reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"San Francisco, California",2018-06-07,0001418091,2006
TYL,Tyler Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Plano, Texas",2020-06-22,0000860731,1966
TSN,Tyson Foods,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Springdale, Arkansas",,0000100493,1935
UDR,"UDR, Inc.",reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Highlands Ranch, Colorado",2016-03-07,0000074208,1972
ULTA,Ulta Beauty,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Bolingbrook, Illinois",2016-04-18,0001403568,1990
USB,U.S. Bancorp,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",,0000036104,1968
UAA,Under Armour (Class A),reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Baltimore, Maryland",2014-05-01,0001336917,1996
UA,Under Armour (Class C),reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Baltimore, Maryland",2016-04-08,0001336917,1996
UNP,Union Pacific Corp,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Omaha, Nebraska",1957-03-04,0000100885,1862
UAL,United Airlines Holdings,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Chicago, Illinois",2015-09-03,0000100517,1967
UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Minnetonka, Minnesota",1994-07-01,0000731766,1977
UPS,United Parcel Service,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Atlanta, Georgia",2002-07-22,0001090727,1907
URI,"United Rentals, Inc.",reports,Industrials,Trading Companies & Distributors,"Stamford, Connecticut",2014-09-20,0001067701,1997
UHS,Universal Health Services,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"King of Prussia, Pennsylvania",2014-09-20,0000352915,1979
UNM,Unum Group,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Chattanooga, Tennessee",1994-03-01,0000005513,1999
VLO,Valero Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"San Antonio, Texas",,0001035002,1980
VAR,Varian Medical Systems,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Palo Alto, California",2007-02-12,0000203527,1948
VTR,Ventas Inc,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Chicago, Illinois",2009-03-04,0000740260,1998
VRSN,Verisign Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Internet Services & Infrastructure,"Dulles, Virginia",2006-02-01,0001014473,1995
VRSK,Verisk Analytics,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"Jersey City, New Jersey",2015-10-08,0001442145,1971
VZ,Verizon Communications,reports,Communication Services,Integrated Telecommunication Services,"New York, New York",1983-11-30,0000732712,1983 (1877)
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2013-09-23,0000875320,1989
VFC,VF Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Denver, Colorado",1979-06-30,0000103379,1899
VIAC,ViacomCBS,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",,0000813828,2019 (1952)
VTRS,Viatris,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",2004-04-23,0001792044,1961
V,Visa Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"San Francisco, California",2009-12-21,0001403161,1958
VNT,Vontier,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2020-10-09,0001786842,2019
VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"New York, New York",,0000899689,1982
VMC,Vulcan Materials,reports,Materials,Construction Materials,"Birmingham, Alabama",1999-06-30,0001396009,1909
WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Greenwich, Connecticut",2019-12-05,0000011544,1967
WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Wilmerding, Pennsylvania",2019-02-27,0000943452,1999 (1869)
WMT,Walmart,reports,Consumer Staples,Hypermarkets & Super Centers,"Bentonville, Arkansas",1982-08-31,0000104169,1962
WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,reports,Consumer Staples,Drug Retail,"Deerfield, Illinois",1979-12-31,0001618921,2014
DIS,The Walt Disney Company,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Burbank, California",1976-06-30,0001744489,1923
WM,Waste Management Inc.,reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Houston, Texas",,0000823768,1968
WAT,Waters Corporation,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Milford, Massachusetts",,0001000697,1958
WEC,WEC Energy Group,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2008-10-31,0000783325,1896
WFC,Wells Fargo,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"San Francisco, California",1976-06-30,0000072971,1852
WELL,Welltower Inc.,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Toledo, Ohio",2009-01-30,0000766704,1970
WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"Exton, Pennsylvania",2020-05-22,0000105770,1923
WDC,Western Digital,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","San Jose, California",2009-07-01,0000106040,1970
WU,Western Union Co,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Englewood, Colorado",2006-09-29,0001365135,1851
WRK,WestRock,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Atlanta, Georgia",,0001732845,2015
WY,Weyerhaeuser,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Federal Way, Washington",,0000106535,1900
WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Household Appliances,"Benton Harbor, Michigan",,0000106640,1911
WMB,Williams Companies,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Tulsa, Oklahoma",1975-03-31,0000107263,1908
WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"London, United Kingdom",2016-01-05,0001140536,2016
WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Paradise, Nevada",2008-11-14,0001174922,2002
XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",1957-03-04,0000072903,1909
XRX,Xerox,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Norwalk, Connecticut",,0001770450,2017 (1906)
XLNX,Xilinx,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",1999-11-08,0000743988,1984
XYL,Xylem Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"White Plains, New York",2011-11-01,0001524472,2011
YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Louisville, Kentucky",1997-10-06,0001041061,1997
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Lincolnshire, Illinois",2019-12-23,0000877212,1969
ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Warsaw, Indiana",2001-08-07,0001136869,1927
ZION,Zions Bancorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Salt Lake City, Utah",2001-06-22,0000109380,1873
ZTS,Zoetis,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Parsippany, New Jersey",2013-06-21,0001555280,1952
1 Symbol Security SEC filings GICS Sector GICS Sub-Industry Headquarters Location Date first added CIK Founded
2 MMM 3M Company reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates St. Paul, Minnesota 1976-08-09 0000066740 1902
3 ABT Abbott Laboratories reports Health Care Health Care Equipment North Chicago, Illinois 1964-03-31 0000001800 1888
4 ABBV AbbVie Inc. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals North Chicago, Illinois 2012-12-31 0001551152 2013 (1888)
5 ABMD Abiomed reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Danvers, Massachusetts 2018-05-31 0000815094 1981
6 ACN Accenture reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Dublin, Ireland 2011-07-06 0001467373 1989
7 ATVI Activision Blizzard reports Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment Santa Monica, California 2015-08-31 0000718877 2008
8 ADBE Adobe Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software San Jose, California 1997-05-05 0000796343 1982
9 AMD Advanced Micro Devices reports Information Technology Semiconductors Santa Clara, California 2017-03-20 0000002488 1969
10 AAP Advance Auto Parts reports Consumer Discretionary Automotive Retail Raleigh, North Carolina 2015-07-09 0001158449 1932
11 AES AES Corp reports Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Arlington, Virginia 1998-10-02 0000874761 1981
12 AFL Aflac reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Columbus, Georgia 1999-05-28 0000004977 1955
13 A Agilent Technologies reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Santa Clara, California 2000-06-05 0001090872 1999
14 APD Air Products & Chemicals reports Materials Industrial Gases Allentown, Pennsylvania 1985-04-30 0000002969 1940
15 AKAM Akamai Technologies reports Information Technology Internet Services & Infrastructure Cambridge, Massachusetts 2007-07-12 0001086222 1998
16 ALK Alaska Air Group reports Industrials Airlines Seattle, Washington 2016-05-13 0000766421 1985
17 ALB Albemarle Corporation reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Charlotte, North Carolina 2016-07-01 0000915913 1994
18 ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities reports Real Estate Office REITs Pasadena, California 2017-03-20 0001035443 1994
19 ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Boston, Massachusetts 2012-05-25 0000899866 1992
20 ALGN Align Technology reports Health Care Health Care Supplies San Jose, California 2017-06-19 0001097149 1997
21 ALLE Allegion reports Industrials Building Products Dublin, Ireland 2013-12-02 0001579241 1908
22 LNT Alliant Energy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Madison, Wisconsin 2016-07-01 0000352541 1917
23 ALL Allstate Corp reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Northfield Township, Illinois 1995-07-13 0000899051 1931
24 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services Mountain View, California 2014-04-03 0001652044 1998
25 GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services Mountain View, California 2006-04-03 0001652044 1998
26 MO Altria Group Inc reports Consumer Staples Tobacco Richmond, Virginia 1957-03-04 0000764180 1985
27 AMZN Amazon.com Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Seattle, Washington 2005-11-18 0001018724 1994
28 AMCR Amcor plc reports Materials Paper Packaging Warmley, Bristol, United Kingdom 2019-06-07 0001748790 2019 (1860)
29 AEE Ameren Corp reports Utilities Multi-Utilities St. Louis, Missouri 1991-09-19 0001002910 1902
30 AAL American Airlines Group reports Industrials Airlines Fort Worth, Texas 2015-03-23 0000006201 1934
31 AEP American Electric Power reports Utilities Electric Utilities Columbus, Ohio 1957-03-04 0000004904 1906
32 AXP American Express reports Financials Consumer Finance New York, New York 1976-06-30 0000004962 1850
33 AIG American International Group reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance New York, New York 1980-03-31 0000005272 1919
34 AMT American Tower Corp. reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Boston, Massachusetts 2007-11-19 0001053507 1995
35 AWK American Water Works reports Utilities Water Utilities Camden, New Jersey 2016-03-04 0001410636 1886
36 AMP Ameriprise Financial reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Minneapolis, Minnesota 2005-10-03 0000820027 1894
37 ABC AmerisourceBergen reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania 2001-08-30 0001140859 1985
38 AME Ametek reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Berwyn, Pennsylvania 2013-09-23 0001037868 1930
39 AMGN Amgen Inc. reports Health Care Biotechnology Thousand Oaks, California 1992-01-02 0000318154 1980
40 APH Amphenol Corp reports Information Technology Electronic Components Wallingford, Connecticut 2008-09-30 0000820313 1932
41 ADI Analog Devices, Inc. reports Information Technology Semiconductors Norwood, Massachusetts 1999-10-12 0000006281 1965
42 ANSS ANSYS, Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software Canonsburg, Pennsylvania 2017-06-19 0001013462 1969
43 ANTM Anthem reports Health Care Managed Health Care Indianapolis, Indiana 2002-07-25 0001156039 2014 (1946)
44 AON Aon plc reports Financials Insurance Brokers London, United Kingdom 1996-04-23 0000315293 1982 (1919)
45 AOS A.O. Smith Corp reports Industrials Building Products Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2017-07-26 0000091142 1916
46 APA APA Corporation reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1997-07-28 0000006769 1954
47 AAPL Apple Inc. reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Cupertino, California 1982-11-30 0000320193 1977
48 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment Santa Clara, California 1995-03-16 0000006951 1967
49 APTV Aptiv PLC reports Consumer Discretionary Auto Parts & Equipment Dublin, Ireland 2012-12-24 0001521332 1994
50 ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reports Consumer Staples Agricultural Products Chicago, Illinois 1981-07-29 0000007084 1902
51 ANET Arista Networks reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Santa Clara, California 2018-08-28 0001596532 2004
52 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. reports Financials Insurance Brokers Rolling Meadows, Illinois 2016-05-31 0000354190 1927
53 AIZ Assurant reports Financials Multi-line Insurance New York, New York 2007-04-10 0001267238 1892
54 T AT&T Inc. reports Communication Services Integrated Telecommunication Services Dallas, Texas 1983-11-30 (1957-03-04) 0000732717 1983 (1885)
55 ATO Atmos Energy reports Utilities Gas Utilities Dallas, Texas 2019-02-15 0000731802 1906
56 ADSK Autodesk Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software San Rafael, California 1989-12-01 0000769397 1982
57 ADP Automatic Data Processing reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Roseland, New Jersey 1981-03-31 0000008670 1949
58 AZO AutoZone Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Memphis, Tennessee 1997-01-02 0000866787 1979
59 AVB AvalonBay Communities reports Real Estate Residential REITs Arlington, Virginia[3] 2007-01-10 0000915912 1978
60 AVY Avery Dennison Corp reports Materials Paper Packaging Glendale, California 1987-12-31 0000008818 1990
61 BKR Baker Hughes Co reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Houston, Texas 2017-07-07 0001701605 2017
62 BLL Ball Corp reports Materials Metal & Glass Containers Broomfield, Colorado 1984-10-31 0000009389 1880
63 BAC Bank of America Corp reports Financials Diversified Banks Charlotte, North Carolina 1976-06-30 0000070858 1998 (1923 / 1874)
64 BK The Bank of New York Mellon reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks New York, New York 1995-03-31 0001390777 1784
65 BAX Baxter International Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Deerfield, Illinois 1972-09-30 0000010456 1931
66 BDX Becton Dickinson reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Franklin Lakes, New Jersey 1972-09-30 0000010795 1897
67 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway reports Financials Multi-Sector Holdings Omaha, Nebraska 2010-02-16 0001067983 1839
68 BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Computer & Electronics Retail Richfield, Minnesota 1999-06-29 0000764478 1966
69 BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Hercules, California 2020-06-22 0000012208 1952
70 BIIB Biogen Inc. reports Health Care Biotechnology Cambridge, Massachusetts 2003-11-13 0000875045 1978
71 BLK BlackRock reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks New York, New York 2011-04-04 0001364742 1988
72 BA Boeing Company reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Chicago, Illinois 1957-03-04 0000012927 1916
73 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Norwalk, Connecticut 2009-11-06 0001075531 1996
74 BWA BorgWarner reports Consumer Discretionary Auto Parts & Equipment Auburn Hills, Michigan 2011-12-19 0000908255 1880
75 BXP Boston Properties reports Real Estate Office REITs Boston, Massachusetts 2006-04-03 0001037540 1970
76 BSX Boston Scientific reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Marlborough, Massachusetts[4] 1995-02-24 0000885725 1979
77 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb reports Health Care Health Care Distributors New York, New York 1957-03-04 0000014272 1989
78 AVGO Broadcom Inc. reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Jose, California 2014-05-08 0001730168 1961
79 BR Broadridge Financial Solutions reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Lake Success, New York 2018-06-18 0001383312 1962
80 BF.B Brown-Forman Corp. reports Consumer Staples Distillers & Vintners Louisville, Kentucky 1982-10-31 0000014693 1870
81 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Eden Prairie, Minnesota 2007-03-02 0001043277 1905
82 COG Cabot Oil & Gas reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 2008-06-23 0000858470 1989
83 CDNS Cadence Design Systems reports Information Technology Application Software San Jose, California 2017-09-18 0000813672 1988
84 CPB Campbell Soup reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Camden, New Jersey 1957-03-04 0000016732 1869
85 COF Capital One Financial reports Financials Consumer Finance Tysons Corner, Virginia 1998-07-01 0000927628 1935
86 CAH Cardinal Health Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Dublin, Ohio 1997-05-27 0000721371 1971
87 KMX Carmax Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Richmond, Virginia 2010-06-28 0001170010 1993
88 CCL Carnival Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Miami, Florida 1998-12-22 0000815097 1972
89 CARR Carrier Global reports Industrials Building Products Palm Beach Gardens, Florida 2020-04-03 0001783180 2020 (1915)
90 CTLT Catalent reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Somerset, New Jersey 2020-09-21 0001596783 2007
91 CAT Caterpillar Inc. reports Industrials Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Deerfield, Illinois 1957-03-04 0000018230 1925
92 CBOE Cboe Global Markets reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data Chicago, Illinois 2017-03-01 0001374310 1973
93 CBRE CBRE Group reports Real Estate Real Estate Services Dallas, Texas 2006-11-10 0001138118 1906
94 CDW CDW reports Information Technology Technology Distributors Lincolnshire, Illinois 2019-09-23 0001402057 1984
95 CE Celanese reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Irving, Texas 2018-12-24 0001306830 1918
96 CNC Centene Corporation reports Health Care Managed Health Care St. Louis, Missouri 2016-03-30 0001071739 1984
97 CNP CenterPoint Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Houston, Texas 1985-07-31 0001130310 1882
98 CERN Cerner reports Health Care Health Care Technology North Kansas City, Missouri 2010-04-30 0000804753 1979
99 CF CF Industries Holdings Inc reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Deerfield, Illinois 2008-08-27 0001324404 1946
100 SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage Westlake, Texas 1997-06-02 0000316709 1971
101 CHTR Charter Communications reports Communication Services Cable & Satellite Stamford, Connecticut 2016-09-08 0001091667 1993
102 CVX Chevron Corp. reports Energy Integrated Oil & Gas San Ramon, California 1957-03-04 0000093410 1879
103 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Newport Beach, California 2011-04-28 0001058090 1993
104 CB Chubb Limited reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Zurich, Switzerland 2010-07-15 0000896159 1985
105 CHD Church & Dwight reports Consumer Staples Household Products Ewing, New Jersey 2015-12-29 0000313927 1847
106 CI Cigna reports Health Care Managed Health Care Bloomfield, Connecticut 1976-06-30 0001739940 1982
107 CINF Cincinnati Financial reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Fairfield, Ohio 1997-12-18 0000020286 1950
108 CTAS Cintas Corporation reports Industrials Diversified Support Services Mason, Ohio 2001-03-01 0000723254 1929
109 CSCO Cisco Systems reports Information Technology Communications Equipment San Jose, California 1993-12-01 0000858877 1984
110 C Citigroup Inc. reports Financials Diversified Banks New York, New York 1988-05-31 0000831001 1998
111 CFG Citizens Financial Group reports Financials Regional Banks Providence, Rhode Island 2016-01-29 0000759944 1828
112 CTXS Citrix Systems reports Information Technology Application Software Fort Lauderdale, Florida 1999-12-01 0000877890 1989
113 CLX The Clorox Company reports Consumer Staples Household Products Oakland, California 1969-03-31 0000021076 1913
114 CME CME Group Inc. reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data Chicago, Illinois 2006-08-11 0001156375 1848
115 CMS CMS Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Jackson, Michigan 1999-05-03 0000811156 1886
116 KO Coca-Cola Company reports Consumer Staples Soft Drinks Atlanta, Georgia 1957-03-04 0000021344 1886
117 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Teaneck, New Jersey 2006-11-17 0001058290 1994
118 CL Colgate-Palmolive reports Consumer Staples Household Products New York, New York 1957-03-04 0000021665 1806
119 CMCSA Comcast Corp. reports Communication Services Cable & Satellite Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 2002-11-19 0001166691 1963
120 CMA Comerica Inc. reports Financials Diversified Banks Dallas, Texas 1995-12-01 0000028412 1849
121 CAG Conagra Brands reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Chicago, Illinois 1983-08-31 0000023217 1919
122 COP ConocoPhillips reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1957-03-04 0001163165 2002
123 ED Consolidated Edison reports Utilities Electric Utilities New York, New York 0001047862 1823
124 STZ Constellation Brands reports Consumer Staples Distillers & Vintners Victor, New York 2005-07-01 0000016918 1945
125 COO The Cooper Companies reports Health Care Health Care Supplies San Ramon, California 2016-09-23 0000711404 1958
126 CPRT Copart Inc reports Industrials Diversified Support Services Dallas, Texas 2018-07-02 0000900075 1982
127 GLW Corning Inc. reports Information Technology Electronic Components Corning, New York 0000024741 1851
128 CTVA Corteva reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Wilmington, Delaware 2019-06-03 0001755672 2019
129 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. reports Consumer Staples Hypermarkets & Super Centers Issaquah, Washington 1993-10-01 0000909832 1976
130 CCI Crown Castle reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Houston, Texas 2012-03-14 0001051470 1994
131 CSX CSX Corp. reports Industrials Railroads Jacksonville, Florida 1967-09-30 0000277948 1980
132 CMI Cummins Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Columbus, Indiana 1965-03-31 0000026172 1919
133 CVS CVS Health reports Health Care Health Care Services Woonsocket, Rhode Island 1957-03-04 0000064803 1996
134 DHI D. R. Horton reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Arlington, Texas 2005-06-22 0000882184 1978
135 DHR Danaher Corp. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Washington, D.C. 0000313616 1969
136 DRI Darden Restaurants reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Orlando, Florida 0000940944 1938
137 DVA DaVita Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Facilities Denver, Colorado 2008-07-31 0000927066 1979
138 DE Deere & Co. reports Industrials Agricultural & Farm Machinery Moline, Illinois 1957-03-04 0000315189 1837
139 DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. reports Industrials Airlines Atlanta, Georgia 2013-09-11 0000027904 1929
140 XRAY Dentsply Sirona reports Health Care Health Care Supplies Charlotte, North Carolina 2008-11-14 0000818479 2016 (1969)
141 DVN Devon Energy reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 2000-08-30 0001090012 1971
142 DXCM DexCom reports Health Care Health Care Equipment San Diego, California 2020-05-12 0001093557 1999
143 FANG Diamondback Energy reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Midland, Texas 2018-12-03 0001539838 2007
144 DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Austin, Texas 2016-05-18 0001297996 2004
145 DFS Discover Financial Services reports Financials Consumer Finance Riverwoods, Illinois 2007-07-02 0001393612 1985
146 DISCA Discovery, Inc. (Series A) reports Communication Services Broadcasting New York, New York 2010-03-01 0001437107 1985
147 DISCK Discovery, Inc. (Series C) reports Communication Services Broadcasting New York, New York 2014-08-07 0001437107 1985
148 DISH Dish Network reports Communication Services Cable & Satellite Meridian, Colorado 2017-03-13 0001001082 1980
149 DG Dollar General reports Consumer Discretionary General Merchandise Stores Goodlettsville, Tennessee 2012-12-03 0000029534 1939
150 DLTR Dollar Tree reports Consumer Discretionary General Merchandise Stores Chesapeake, Virginia 2011-12-19 0000935703 1986
151 D Dominion Energy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Richmond, Virginia 0000715957 1983
152 DPZ Domino's Pizza reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Ann Arbor, Michigan 2020-05-12 0001286681 1960
153 DOV Dover Corporation reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Downers Grove, Illinois 1985-10-31 0000029905 1955
154 DOW Dow Inc. reports Materials Commodity Chemicals Midland, Michigan 2019-04-01 0001751788 2019
155 DTE DTE Energy Co. reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Detroit, Michigan 1957-03-04 0000936340 1995
156 DUK Duke Energy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Charlotte, North Carolina 1976-06-30 0001326160 1904
157 DRE Duke Realty Corp reports Real Estate Industrial REITs Indianapolis, Indiana 2017-07-26 0000783280 1972
158 DD DuPont de Nemours Inc reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Wilmington, Delaware 2019-04-02 0001666700 2017
159 DXC DXC Technology reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Tysons Corner, Virginia 2017-04-04 0001688568 2017
160 EMN Eastman Chemical reports Materials Diversified Chemicals Kingsport, Tennessee 1994-01-01 0000915389 1920
161 ETN Eaton Corporation reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Dublin, Ireland 0001551182 1911
162 EBAY eBay Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail San Jose, California 2002-07-22 0001065088 1995
163 ECL Ecolab Inc. reports Materials Specialty Chemicals St. Paul, Minnesota 1989-01-31 0000031462 1923
164 EIX Edison Int'l reports Utilities Electric Utilities Rosemead, California 1957-03-04 0000827052 1886
165 EW Edwards Lifesciences reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Irvine, California 2011-04-01 0001099800 1958
166 EA Electronic Arts reports Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment Redwood City, California 2002-07-22 0000712515 1982
167 EMR Emerson Electric Company reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Ferguson, Missouri 1965-03-31 0000032604 1890
168 ENPH Enphase Energy reports Information Technology Semiconductors Fremont, California 2021-01-07 0001463101 2006
169 ETR Entergy Corp. reports Utilities Electric Utilities New Orleans, Louisiana 1957-03-04 0000065984 1913
170 EOG EOG Resources reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 2000-11-02 0000821189 1999
171 EFX Equifax Inc. reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services Atlanta, Georgia 1997-06-19 0000033185 1899
172 EQIX Equinix reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Redwood City, California 2015-03-20 0001101239 1998
173 EQR Equity Residential reports Real Estate Residential REITs Chicago, Illinois 2001-12-03 0000906107 1969
174 ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. reports Real Estate Residential REITs San Mateo, California 2014-04-02 0000920522 1971
175 EL Estée Lauder Companies reports Consumer Staples Personal Products New York, New York 2006-01-05 0001001250 1946
176 ETSY Etsy reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Brooklyn, New York 2020-09-21 0001370637 2005
177 EVRG Evergy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Kansas City, Missouri 2018-06-05 0001711269 1909
178 ES Eversource Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Hartford, Connecticut 0000072741 1966
179 RE Everest Re Group Ltd. reports Financials Reinsurance Hamilton, Bermuda 2017-06-19 0001095073 1973
180 EXC Exelon Corp. reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Chicago, Illinois 1957-03-04 0001109357 2000
181 EXPE Expedia Group reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Seattle, Washington 2007-10-02 0001324424 1996
182 EXPD Expeditors reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Seattle, Washington 2007-10-10 0000746515 1979
183 EXR Extra Space Storage reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Salt Lake City, Utah 2016-01-19 0001289490 1977
184 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. reports Energy Integrated Oil & Gas Irving, Texas 1957-03-04 0000034088 1999
185 FFIV F5 Networks reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Seattle, Washington 2010-12-20 0001048695 1996
186 FB Facebook, Inc. reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services Menlo Park, California 2013-12-23 0001326801 2004
187 FAST Fastenal Co reports Industrials Building Products Winona, Minnesota 2008-09-15 0000815556 1967
188 FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust reports Real Estate Retail REITs Rockville, Maryland 2016-02-01 0000034903 1962
189 FDX FedEx Corporation reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Memphis, Tennessee 1980-12-31 0001048911 1971
190 FIS Fidelity National Information Services reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Jacksonville, Florida 2006-11-10 0001136893 1968
191 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp reports Financials Regional Banks Cincinnati, Ohio 0000035527 1858
192 FE FirstEnergy Corp reports Utilities Electric Utilities Akron, Ohio 0001031296 1997
193 FRC First Republic Bank reports Financials Regional Banks San Francisco, California 2019-01-02 0001132979 1985
194 FISV Fiserv Inc reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Brookfield, Wisconsin 2001-04-02 0000798354 1984
195 FLT FleetCor Technologies Inc reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Norcross, Georgia 2018-06-20 0001175454 2000
196 FLIR FLIR Systems reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Wilsonville, Oregon 2009-01-02 0000354908 1978
197 FLS Flowserve Corporation reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Irving, Texas 2008-10-02 0000030625 1997
198 FMC FMC Corporation reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 2009-08-19 0000037785 1883
199 F Ford Motor Company reports Consumer Discretionary Automobile Manufacturers Dearborn, Michigan 1957-03-04 0000037996 1903
200 FTNT Fortinet reports Information Technology Systems Software Sunnyvale, California 2018-10-11 0001262039 2000
201 FTV Fortive Corp reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Everett, Washington 2016-07-01 0001659166 2016
202 FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security reports Industrials Building Products Deerfield, Illinois 2016-06-22 0001519751 2011 (1969)
203 FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment New York, New York 2013-07-01 0001754301 2019
204 FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment New York, New York 2015-09-18 0001754301 2019
205 BEN Franklin Resources reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks San Mateo, California 0000038777 1947
206 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. reports Materials Copper Phoenix, Arizona 0000831259 1912
207 GPS Gap Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail San Francisco, California 1986-08-31 0000039911 1969
208 GRMN Garmin Ltd. reports Consumer Discretionary Consumer Electronics Schaffhausen, Switzerland 2012-12-12 0001121788 1989
209 IT Gartner Inc reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Stamford, Connecticut 2017-04-05 0000749251 1979
210 GD General Dynamics reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Falls Church, Virginia 1957-03-04 0000040533 1899
211 GE General Electric reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Boston, Massachusetts 0000040545 1892
212 GIS General Mills reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Golden Valley, Minnesota 1969-03-31 0000040704 1856
213 GM General Motors reports Consumer Discretionary Automobile Manufacturers Detroit, Michigan 2013-06-06 0001467858 1908
214 GPC Genuine Parts reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Atlanta, Georgia 1973-12-31 0000040987 1925
215 GILD Gilead Sciences reports Health Care Biotechnology Foster City, California 2004-07-01 0000882095 1987
216 GL Globe Life Inc. reports Financials Life & Health Insurance McKinney, Texas 1989-04-30 0000320335 1900
217 GPN Global Payments Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Atlanta, Georgia 2016-04-25 0001123360 2000
218 GS Goldman Sachs Group reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage New York, New York 2002-07-22 0000886982 1869
219 GWW Grainger (W.W.) Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Lake Forest, Illinois 1981-06-30 0000277135 1927
220 HAL Halliburton Co. reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Houston, Texas 1957-03-04 0000045012 1919
221 HBI Hanesbrands Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Winston-Salem, North Carolina 2015-03-20 0001359841 2000
222 HIG Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Hartford, Connecticut 1957-03-04 0000874766 1810
223 HAS Hasbro Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products Pawtucket, Rhode Island 1984-09-30 0000046080 1923
224 HCA HCA Healthcare reports Health Care Health Care Facilities Nashville, Tennessee 2015-01-27 0000860730 1968
225 PEAK Healthpeak Properties reports Real Estate Health Care REITs Long Beach, California 2008-03-31 0000765880 1985
226 HSIC Henry Schein reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Melville, New York 2015-03-17 0001000228 1932
227 HSY The Hershey Company reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Hershey, Pennsylvania 1957-03-04 0000047111 1894
228 HES Hess Corporation reports Energy Integrated Oil & Gas New York, New York 1984-05-31 0000004447 1919
229 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Houston, Texas 2015-11-02 0001645590 2015
230 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Tysons Corner, Virginia 2017-06-19 0001585689 1919
231 HFC HollyFrontier Corp reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Dallas, Texas 2018-06-18 0000048039 1947
232 HOLX Hologic reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Marlborough, Massachusetts 2016-03-30 0000859737 1985
233 HD Home Depot reports Consumer Discretionary Home Improvement Retail Atlanta, Georgia 1988-03-31 0000354950 1978
234 HON Honeywell Int'l Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Morristown, New Jersey 1964-03-31 0000773840 1906
235 HRL Hormel Foods Corp. reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Austin, Minnesota 2009-03-04 0000048465 1891
236 HST Host Hotels & Resorts reports Real Estate Hotel & Resort REITs Bethesda, Maryland 2007-03-20 0001070750 1993
237 HWM Howmet Aerospace reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1964-03-31 0000004281 2016
238 HPQ HP Inc. reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Palo Alto, California 1974-12-31 0000047217 1939 (2015)
239 HUM Humana Inc. reports Health Care Managed Health Care Louisville, Kentucky 0000049071 1961
240 HBAN Huntington Bancshares reports Financials Regional Banks Columbus, Ohio 0000049196 1866
241 HII Huntington Ingalls Industries reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Newport News, Virginia 2018-01-03 0001501585 2011
242 IEX IDEX Corporation reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Lake Forest, Illinois 2019-08-09 0000832101 1988
243 IDXX Idexx Laboratories reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Westbrook, Maine 2017-01-05 0000874716 1983
244 INFO IHS Markit reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services London, United Kingdom 2017-06-02 0001598014 1959
245 ITW Illinois Tool Works reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Glenview, Illinois 1986-02-28 0000049826 1912
246 ILMN Illumina Inc reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services San Diego, California 2015-11-19 0001110803 1998
247 INCY Incyte reports Health Care Biotechnology Wilmington, Delaware 2017-02-28 0000879169 1991
248 IR Ingersoll Rand reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2020-03-03 0001699150 1859
249 INTC Intel Corp. reports Information Technology Semiconductors Santa Clara, California 1976-12-31 0000050863 1968
250 ICE Intercontinental Exchange reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data Atlanta, Georgia 2007-09-26 0001571949 2000
251 IBM International Business Machines reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Armonk, New York 1957-03-04 0000051143 1911
252 IP International Paper reports Materials Paper Packaging Memphis, Tennessee 1957-03-04 0000051434 1898
253 IPG Interpublic Group reports Communication Services Advertising New York, New York 1992-10-01 0000051644 1961 (1930)
254 IFF International Flavors & Fragrances reports Materials Specialty Chemicals New York, New York 1976-03-31 0000051253 1958 (1889)
255 INTU Intuit Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software Mountain View, California 2000-12-05 0000896878 1983
256 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Sunnyvale, California 2008-06-02 0001035267 1995
257 IVZ Invesco Ltd. reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Atlanta, Georgia 2008-08-21 0000914208 1935
258 IPGP IPG Photonics Corp. reports Information Technology Electronic Manufacturing Services Oxford, Massachusetts 2018-03-07 0001111928 1990
259 IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Durham, North Carolina 2017-08-29 0001478242 1982
260 IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Boston, Massachusetts 2009-01-06 0001020569 1951
261 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Monett, Missouri 2018-11-13 0000779152 1976
262 J Jacobs Engineering Group reports Industrials Construction & Engineering Dallas, Texas 2007-10-26 0000052988 1947
263 JBHT J. B. Hunt Transport Services reports Industrials Trucking Lowell, Arkansas 2015-07-01 0000728535 1961
264 SJM JM Smucker reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Orrville, Ohio 2008-11-06 0000091419 1897
265 JNJ Johnson & Johnson reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals New Brunswick, New Jersey 1973-06-30 0000200406 1886
266 JCI Johnson Controls International reports Industrials Building Products Cork, Ireland 2010-08-27 0000833444 1885
267 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. reports Financials Diversified Banks New York, New York 1975-06-30 0000019617 2000 (1799 / 1871)
268 JNPR Juniper Networks reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Sunnyvale, California 2006-06-02 0001043604 1996
269 KSU Kansas City Southern reports Industrials Railroads Kansas City, Missouri 2013-05-24 0000054480 1887
270 K Kellogg Co. reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Battle Creek, Michigan 0000055067 1906
271 KEY KeyCorp reports Financials Regional Banks Cleveland, Ohio 1994-03-01 0000091576 1825
272 KEYS Keysight Technologies reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Santa Rosa, California 2018-11-06 0001601046 2014
273 KMB Kimberly-Clark reports Consumer Staples Household Products Irving, Texas 1957-03-04 0000055785 1872
274 KIM Kimco Realty reports Real Estate Retail REITs New Hyde Park, New York 2006-04-04 0000879101 1958
275 KMI Kinder Morgan reports Energy Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Houston, Texas 2012-05-25 0001506307 1997
276 KLAC KLA Corporation reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment Milpitas, California 0000319201 1975/1977 (1997)
277 KHC Kraft Heinz Co reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Chicago, Illinois; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 2015-07-06 0001637459 2015 (1869)
278 KR Kroger Co. reports Consumer Staples Food Retail Cincinnati, Ohio 1957-03-04 0000056873 1883
279 LB L Brands Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail Columbus, Ohio 1983-09-30 0000701985 1963
280 LHX L3Harris Technologies reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Melbourne, Florida 2008-09-22 0000202058 2019 (1895)
281 LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holding reports Health Care Health Care Services Burlington, North Carolina 2004-11-01 0000920148 1978
282 LRCX Lam Research reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment Fremont, California 2012-06-29 0000707549 1980
283 LW Lamb Weston Holdings Inc reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Eagle, Idaho 2018-12-03 0001679273 2016 (1950)
284 LVS Las Vegas Sands reports Consumer Discretionary Casinos & Gaming Las Vegas, Nevada 2019-10-03 0001300514 1988
285 LEG Leggett & Platt reports Consumer Discretionary Home Furnishings Carthage, Missouri 0000058492 1883
286 LDOS Leidos Holdings reports Industrials Diversified Support Services Reston, Virginia 2019-08-09 0001336920 1969
287 LEN Lennar Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Miami, Florida 2005-10-04 0000920760 1954
288 LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Indianapolis, Indiana 1970-12-31 0000059478 1876
289 LNC Lincoln National reports Financials Multi-line Insurance Radnor, Pennsylvania 1976-06-30 0000059558 1905
290 LIN Linde plc reports Materials Industrial Gases Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom 1992-07-01 0001707925 1879
291 LYV Live Nation Entertainment reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment Beverly Hills, California 2019-12-23 0001335258 2010
292 LKQ LKQ Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Distributors Chicago, Illinois 2016-05-23 0001065696 1998
293 LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Bethesda, Maryland 1984-07-31 0000936468 1995
294 L Loews Corp. reports Financials Multi-line Insurance New York, New York 0000060086 1959
295 LOW Lowe's Cos. reports Consumer Discretionary Home Improvement Retail Mooresville, North Carolina 1984-02-29 0000060667 1904/1946/1959
296 LUMN Lumen Technologies reports Communication Services Alternative Carriers Monroe, Louisiana 1999-03-25 0000018926 1983 (1877)
297 LYB LyondellBasell reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Rotterdam, Netherlands 2012-09-05 0001489393 2007
298 MTB M&T Bank reports Financials Regional Banks Buffalo, New York 2004-02-23 0000036270 1856
299 MRO Marathon Oil Corp. reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1991-05-01 0000101778 1887
300 MPC Marathon Petroleum reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Findlay, Ohio 2011-07-01 0001510295 2009 (1887)
301 MKTX MarketAxess reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 2019-07-01 0001278021 2000
302 MAR Marriott International reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Bethesda, Maryland 0001048286 1927
303 MMC Marsh & McLennan reports Financials Insurance Brokers New York, New York 1987-08-31 0000062709 1905
304 MLM Martin Marietta Materials reports Materials Construction Materials Raleigh, North Carolina 2014-07-02 0000916076 1993
305 MAS Masco Corp. reports Industrials Building Products Livonia, Michigan 1981-06-30 0000062996 1929
306 MA Mastercard Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Harrison, New York 2008-07-18 0001141391 1966
307 MKC McCormick & Co. reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Hunt Valley, Maryland 0000063754 1889
308 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Jose, California 2018-12-03 0000743316 1983
309 MCD McDonald's Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Chicago, Illinois 1970-06-30 0000063908 1940
310 MCK McKesson Corp. reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Irving, Texas 0000927653 1833
311 MDT Medtronic plc reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Dublin, Ireland 1986-10-31 0001613103 1949
312 MRK Merck & Co. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Kenilworth, New Jersey 1957-03-04 0000310158 1891
313 MET MetLife Inc. reports Financials Life & Health Insurance New York, New York 0001099219 1868
314 MTD Mettler Toledo reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Columbus, Ohio 2016-09-06 0001037646 1945
315 MGM MGM Resorts International reports Consumer Discretionary Casinos & Gaming Paradise, Nevada 2017-07-26 0000789570 1986
316 MCHP Microchip Technology reports Information Technology Semiconductors Chandler, Arizona 2007-09-07 0000827054 1989
317 MU Micron Technology reports Information Technology Semiconductors Boise, Idaho 1994-09-27 0000723125 1978
318 MSFT Microsoft Corp. reports Information Technology Systems Software Redmond, Washington 1994-06-01 0000789019 1975
319 MAA Mid-America Apartments reports Real Estate Residential REITs Memphis, Tennessee 2016-12-02 0000912595 1977
320 MHK Mohawk Industries reports Consumer Discretionary Home Furnishings Calhoun, Georgia 2013-12-23 0000851968 1878
321 TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company reports Consumer Staples Brewers Denver, Colorado 1976-06-30 0000024545 2005 (Molson 1786, Coors 1873)
322 MDLZ Mondelez International reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Chicago, Illinois 2012-10-02 0001103982 2012
323 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems reports Information Technology Semiconductors Kirkland, Washington 2021-02-12 0001280452 1997
324 MNST Monster Beverage reports Consumer Staples Soft Drinks Corona, California 2012-06-28 0000865752 2012 (1935)
325 MCO Moody's Corp reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 0001059556 1909
326 MS Morgan Stanley reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage New York, New York 0000895421 1935
327 MOS The Mosaic Company reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Tampa, Florida 2011-09-26 0001285785 2004 (1865 / 1909)
328 MSI Motorola Solutions Inc. reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Chicago, Illinois 0000068505 1928 (2011)
329 MSCI MSCI Inc reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 2018-04-04 0001408198 1969
330 NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 2008-10-22 0001120193 1971
331 NTAP NetApp reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Sunnyvale, California 1999-06-25 0001002047 1992
332 NFLX Netflix Inc. reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment Los Gatos, California 2010-12-20 0001065280 1997
333 NWL Newell Brands reports Consumer Discretionary Housewares & Specialties Atlanta, Georgia 1989-04-30 0000814453 1903
334 NEM Newmont Corporation reports Materials Gold Denver, Colorado 1969-06-30 0001164727 1921
335 NWSA News Corp (Class A) reports Communication Services Publishing New York, New York 2013-08-01 0001564708 2013 (1980)
336 NWS News Corp (Class B) reports Communication Services Publishing New York, New York 2015-09-18 0001564708 2013 (1980)
337 NEE NextEra Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Juno Beach, Florida 1976-06-30 0000753308 1984 (1925)
338 NLSN Nielsen Holdings reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services New York, New York 2013-07-09 0001492633 1923
339 NKE Nike, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Washington County, Oregon 1988-11-30 0000320187 1964
340 NI NiSource Inc. reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Merrillville, Indiana 0001111711 1912
341 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. reports Industrials Railroads Norfolk, Virginia 1957-03-04 0000702165 1881/1894 (1980)
342 NTRS Northern Trust Corp. reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Chicago, Illinois 0000073124 1889
343 NOC Northrop Grumman reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense West Falls Church, Virginia 1985-06-30 0001133421 1994 (Northrop 1939, Grumman 1930)
344 NLOK NortonLifeLock reports Information Technology Application Software Tempe, Arizona 2003-03-25 0000849399 1982
345 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Miami, Florida 2017-10-13 0001513761 2011 (1966)
346 NOV NOV Inc. reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Houston, Texas 2005-03-14 0001021860 1841
347 NRG NRG Energy reports Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Princeton, New Jersey 2010-01-29 0001013871 1992
348 NUE Nucor Corp. reports Materials Steel Charlotte, North Carolina 1985-04-30 0000073309 1940
349 NVDA Nvidia Corporation reports Information Technology Semiconductors Santa Clara, California 2001-11-30 0001045810 1993
350 NVR NVR, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Reston, Virginia 2019-09-26 0000906163 1980
351 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Springfield, Missouri 2009-03-27 0000898173 1957
352 OXY Occidental Petroleum reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1982-12-31 0000797468 1920
353 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line reports Industrials Trucking Thomasville, North Carolina 2019-12-09 0000878927 1934
354 OMC Omnicom Group reports Communication Services Advertising New York, New York 0000029989 1986
355 OKE Oneok reports Energy Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Tulsa, Oklahoma 2010-03-15 0001039684 1906
356 ORCL Oracle Corp. reports Information Technology Application Software Austin, Texas 1989-08-31 0001341439 1977
357 OTIS Otis Worldwide reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Farmington, Connecticut 2020-04-03 0001781335 2020 (1853)
358 PCAR Paccar reports Industrials Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Bellevue, Washington 1980-12-31 0000075362 1905
359 PKG Packaging Corporation of America reports Materials Paper Packaging Lake Forest, Illinois 2017-07-26 0000075677 1959
360 PH Parker-Hannifin reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Cleveland, Ohio 1985-11-30 0000076334 1917
361 PAYX Paychex Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Penfield, New York 0000723531 1971
362 PAYC Paycom reports Information Technology Application Software Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 2020-01-28 0001590955 1998
363 PYPL PayPal reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services San Jose, California 2015-07-20 0001633917 1998
364 PNR Pentair plc reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Worsley, UK 2012-10-01 0000077360 1966
365 PBCT People's United Financial reports Financials Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Bridgeport, Connecticut 2008-11-13 0001378946 1842
366 PEP PepsiCo Inc. reports Consumer Staples Soft Drinks Purchase, New York 1957-03-04 0000077476 1898
367 PKI PerkinElmer reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Waltham, Massachusetts 1985-05-31 0000031791 1937
368 PRGO Perrigo reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Dublin, Ireland 2011-12-19 0001585364 2013 (1887)
369 PFE Pfizer Inc. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals New York, New York 1957-03-04 0000078003 1849
370 PM Philip Morris International reports Consumer Staples Tobacco New York, New York 2008-03-31 0001413329 2008 (1847)
371 PSX Phillips 66 reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Houston, Texas 2012-05-01 0001534701 2012 (1917)
372 PNW Pinnacle West Capital reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Phoenix, Arizona 0000764622 1985
373 PXD Pioneer Natural Resources reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Irving, Texas 2008-09-24 0001038357 1997
374 PNC PNC Financial Services reports Financials Regional Banks Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1988-04-30 0000713676 1845
375 POOL Pool Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Distributors Covington, Louisiana 2020-10-07 0000945841 1993
376 PPG PPG Industries reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1957-03-04 0000079879 1883
377 PPL PPL Corp. reports Utilities Electric Utilities Allentown, Pennsylvania 0000922224 1920
378 PFG Principal Financial Group reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Des Moines, Iowa 2002-07-22 0001126328 1879
379 PG Procter & Gamble reports Consumer Staples Personal Products Cincinnati, Ohio 1957-03-04 0000080424 1837
380 PGR Progressive Corp. reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Mayfield Village, Ohio 1997-08-04 0000080661 1937
381 PLD Prologis reports Real Estate Industrial REITs San Francisco, California 2003-07-17 0001045609 1983
382 PRU Prudential Financial reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Newark, New Jersey 2002-07-22 0001137774 1875
383 PEG Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) reports Utilities Electric Utilities Newark, New Jersey 1957-03-04 0000788784 1903
384 PSA Public Storage reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Glendale, California 2005-08-19 0001393311 1972
385 PHM PulteGroup reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Atlanta, Georgia 1984-04-30 0000822416 1956
386 PVH PVH Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods New York, New York 2013-02-15 0000078239 1881
387 QRVO Qorvo reports Information Technology Semiconductors Greensboro, North Carolina 2015-06-11 0001604778 2015
388 PWR Quanta Services Inc. reports Industrials Construction & Engineering Houston, Texas 2009-07-01 0001050915 1997
389 QCOM Qualcomm reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Diego, California 0000804328 1985
390 DGX Quest Diagnostics reports Health Care Health Care Services Secaucus, New Jersey 2002-12-12 0001022079 1967
391 RL Ralph Lauren Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods New York, New York 2007-02-02 0001037038 1967
392 RJF Raymond James Financial reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage St. Petersburg, Florida 2017-03-20 0000720005 1962
393 RTX Raytheon Technologies reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Waltham, Massachusetts 0000101829 1922
394 O Realty Income Corporation reports Real Estate Retail REITs San Diego, California 2015-04-07 0000726728 1969
395 REG Regency Centers Corporation reports Real Estate Retail REITs Jacksonville, Florida 2017-03-02 0000910606 1963
396 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals reports Health Care Biotechnology Tarrytown, New York 2013-05-01 0000872589 1988
397 RF Regions Financial Corp. reports Financials Regional Banks Birmingham, Alabama 1998-08-28 0001281761 1971
398 RSG Republic Services Inc reports Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services Phoenix, Arizona 2008-12-05 0001060391 1998 (1981)
399 RMD ResMed reports Health Care Health Care Equipment San Diego, California 2017-07-26 0000943819 1989
400 RHI Robert Half International reports Industrials Human Resource & Employment Services Menlo Park, California 2000-12-05 0000315213 1948
401 ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Milwaukee, Wisconsin 0001024478 1903
402 ROL Rollins, Inc. reports Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services Atlanta, Georgia 2018-10-01 0000084839 1948
403 ROP Roper Technologies reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Sarasota, Florida 2009-12-23 0000882835 1981
404 ROST Ross Stores reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail Dublin, California 2009-12-21 0000745732 1982
405 RCL Royal Caribbean Group reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Miami, Florida 2014-12-05 0000884887 1997
406 SPGI S&P Global Inc. reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 0000064040 1917
407 CRM Salesforce.com reports Information Technology Application Software San Francisco, California 2008-09-15 0001108524 1999
408 SBAC SBA Communications reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Boca Raton, Florida 2017-09-01 0001034054 1989
409 SLB Schlumberger Ltd. reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Curaçao, Kingdom of the Netherlands 1965-03-31 0000087347 1926
410 STX Seagate Technology reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Dublin, Ireland 2012-07-02 0001137789 1979
411 SEE Sealed Air reports Materials Paper Packaging Charlotte, North Carolina 1957-03-04 0001012100 1960
412 SRE Sempra Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities San Diego, California 0001032208 1998
413 NOW ServiceNow reports Information Technology Systems Software Santa Clara, California 2019-11-21 0001373715 2003
414 SHW Sherwin-Williams reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Cleveland, Ohio 1964-06-30 0000089800 1866
415 SPG Simon Property Group Inc reports Real Estate Retail REITs Indianapolis, Indiana 2002-06-26 0001063761 2003
416 SWKS Skyworks Solutions reports Information Technology Semiconductors Woburn, Massachusetts 2015-03-12 0000004127 2002
417 SLG SL Green Realty reports Real Estate Office REITs New York, New York 2015-03-20 0001040971 1997
418 SNA Snap-on reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Kenosha, Wisconsin 1982-09-30 0000091440 1920
419 SO Southern Company reports Utilities Electric Utilities Atlanta, Georgia 1957-03-04 0000092122 1945
420 LUV Southwest Airlines reports Industrials Airlines Dallas, Texas 1994-07-01 0000092380 1967
421 SWK Stanley Black & Decker reports Industrials Industrial Machinery New Britain, Connecticut 1982-09-30 0000093556 1843
422 SBUX Starbucks Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Seattle, Washington 0000829224 1971
423 STT State Street Corp. reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Boston, Massachusetts 0000093751 1792
424 STE Steris reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Dublin, Ireland 2019-12-23 0001757898 1985
425 SYK Stryker Corp. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Kalamazoo, Michigan 2000-12-12 0000310764 1941
426 SIVB SVB Financial reports Financials Regional Banks Santa Clara, California 2018-03-19 0000719739 1983
427 SYF Synchrony Financial reports Financials Consumer Finance Stamford, Connecticut 2015-11-18 0001601712 2003
428 SNPS Synopsys Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software Mountain View, California 2017-03-16 0000883241 1986
429 SYY Sysco Corp. reports Consumer Staples Food Distributors Houston, Texas 1986-12-31 0000096021 1969
430 TMUS T-Mobile US reports Communication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Bellevue, Washington 2019-07-15 0001283699 1994
431 TROW T. Rowe Price Group reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Baltimore, Maryland 0001113169 1937
432 TTWO Take-Two Interactive reports Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment New York, New York 2018-03-19 0000946581 1993
433 TPR Tapestry, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods New York, New York 0001116132 2017
434 TGT Target Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary General Merchandise Stores Minneapolis, Minnesota 1976-12-31 0000027419 1902
435 TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. reports Information Technology Electronic Manufacturing Services Schaffhausen, Switzerland 2011-10-17 0001385157 2007
436 TDY Teledyne Technologies reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Thousand Oaks, California 2020-06-22 0001094285 1960
437 TFX Teleflex reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Wayne, Pennsylvania 2019-01-18 0000096943 1943
438 TER Teradyne reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment North Reading, Massachusetts 2020-09-21 0000097210 1960
439 TSLA Tesla, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Automobile Manufacturers Palo Alto, California 2020-12-21 0001318605 2003
440 TXN Texas Instruments reports Information Technology Semiconductors Dallas, Texas 0000097476 1930
441 TXT Textron Inc. reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Providence, Rhode Island 1978-12-31 0000217346 1923
442 TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Waltham, Massachusetts 2004-08-03 0000097745 2006 (1902)
443 TJX TJX Companies Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail Framingham, Massachusetts 1985-09-30 0000109198 1987
444 TSCO Tractor Supply Company reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Brentwood, Tennessee 2014-01-24 0000916365 1938
445 TT Trane Technologies plc reports Industrials Building Products Dublin, Ireland 2010-11-17 0001466258 1871
446 TDG TransDigm Group reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Cleveland, Ohio 2016-06-03 0001260221 1993
447 TRV The Travelers Companies reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance New York, New York 2002-08-21 0000086312 1853
448 TRMB Trimble Inc. reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Sunnyvale, California 2021-01-21 0000864749 1978
449 TFC Truist Financial reports Financials Regional Banks Charlotte, North Carolina 1997-12-04 0000092230 1872
450 TWTR Twitter, Inc. reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services San Francisco, California 2018-06-07 0001418091 2006
451 TYL Tyler Technologies reports Information Technology Application Software Plano, Texas 2020-06-22 0000860731 1966
452 TSN Tyson Foods reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Springdale, Arkansas 0000100493 1935
453 UDR UDR, Inc. reports Real Estate Residential REITs Highlands Ranch, Colorado 2016-03-07 0000074208 1972
454 ULTA Ulta Beauty reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Bolingbrook, Illinois 2016-04-18 0001403568 1990
455 USB U.S. Bancorp reports Financials Diversified Banks Minneapolis, Minnesota 0000036104 1968
456 UAA Under Armour (Class A) reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Baltimore, Maryland 2014-05-01 0001336917 1996
457 UA Under Armour (Class C) reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Baltimore, Maryland 2016-04-08 0001336917 1996
458 UNP Union Pacific Corp reports Industrials Railroads Omaha, Nebraska 1957-03-04 0000100885 1862
459 UAL United Airlines Holdings reports Industrials Airlines Chicago, Illinois 2015-09-03 0000100517 1967
460 UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. reports Health Care Managed Health Care Minnetonka, Minnesota 1994-07-01 0000731766 1977
461 UPS United Parcel Service reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Atlanta, Georgia 2002-07-22 0001090727 1907
462 URI United Rentals, Inc. reports Industrials Trading Companies & Distributors Stamford, Connecticut 2014-09-20 0001067701 1997
463 UHS Universal Health Services reports Health Care Health Care Facilities King of Prussia, Pennsylvania 2014-09-20 0000352915 1979
464 UNM Unum Group reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Chattanooga, Tennessee 1994-03-01 0000005513 1999
465 VLO Valero Energy reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing San Antonio, Texas 0001035002 1980
466 VAR Varian Medical Systems reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Palo Alto, California 2007-02-12 0000203527 1948
467 VTR Ventas Inc reports Real Estate Health Care REITs Chicago, Illinois 2009-03-04 0000740260 1998
468 VRSN Verisign Inc. reports Information Technology Internet Services & Infrastructure Dulles, Virginia 2006-02-01 0001014473 1995
469 VRSK Verisk Analytics reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services Jersey City, New Jersey 2015-10-08 0001442145 1971
470 VZ Verizon Communications reports Communication Services Integrated Telecommunication Services New York, New York 1983-11-30 0000732712 1983 (1877)
471 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc reports Health Care Biotechnology Cambridge, Massachusetts 2013-09-23 0000875320 1989
472 VFC VF Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Denver, Colorado 1979-06-30 0000103379 1899
473 VIAC ViacomCBS reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment New York, New York 0000813828 2019 (1952)
474 VTRS Viatris reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 2004-04-23 0001792044 1961
475 V Visa Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services San Francisco, California 2009-12-21 0001403161 1958
476 VNT Vontier reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Raleigh, North Carolina 2020-10-09 0001786842 2019
477 VNO Vornado Realty Trust reports Real Estate Office REITs New York, New York 0000899689 1982
478 VMC Vulcan Materials reports Materials Construction Materials Birmingham, Alabama 1999-06-30 0001396009 1909
479 WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Greenwich, Connecticut 2019-12-05 0000011544 1967
480 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp reports Industrials Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Wilmerding, Pennsylvania 2019-02-27 0000943452 1999 (1869)
481 WMT Walmart reports Consumer Staples Hypermarkets & Super Centers Bentonville, Arkansas 1982-08-31 0000104169 1962
482 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance reports Consumer Staples Drug Retail Deerfield, Illinois 1979-12-31 0001618921 2014
483 DIS The Walt Disney Company reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment Burbank, California 1976-06-30 0001744489 1923
484 WM Waste Management Inc. reports Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services Houston, Texas 0000823768 1968
485 WAT Waters Corporation reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Milford, Massachusetts 0001000697 1958
486 WEC WEC Energy Group reports Utilities Electric Utilities Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2008-10-31 0000783325 1896
487 WFC Wells Fargo reports Financials Diversified Banks San Francisco, California 1976-06-30 0000072971 1852
488 WELL Welltower Inc. reports Real Estate Health Care REITs Toledo, Ohio 2009-01-30 0000766704 1970
489 WST West Pharmaceutical Services reports Health Care Health Care Supplies Exton, Pennsylvania 2020-05-22 0000105770 1923
490 WDC Western Digital reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals San Jose, California 2009-07-01 0000106040 1970
491 WU Western Union Co reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Englewood, Colorado 2006-09-29 0001365135 1851
492 WRK WestRock reports Materials Paper Packaging Atlanta, Georgia 0001732845 2015
493 WY Weyerhaeuser reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Federal Way, Washington 0000106535 1900
494 WHR Whirlpool Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Household Appliances Benton Harbor, Michigan 0000106640 1911
495 WMB Williams Companies reports Energy Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Tulsa, Oklahoma 1975-03-31 0000107263 1908
496 WLTW Willis Towers Watson reports Financials Insurance Brokers London, United Kingdom 2016-01-05 0001140536 2016
497 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd reports Consumer Discretionary Casinos & Gaming Paradise, Nevada 2008-11-14 0001174922 2002
498 XEL Xcel Energy Inc reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Minneapolis, Minnesota 1957-03-04 0000072903 1909
499 XRX Xerox reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Norwalk, Connecticut 0001770450 2017 (1906)
500 XLNX Xilinx reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Jose, California 1999-11-08 0000743988 1984
501 XYL Xylem Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Machinery White Plains, New York 2011-11-01 0001524472 2011
502 YUM Yum! Brands Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Louisville, Kentucky 1997-10-06 0001041061 1997
503 ZBRA Zebra Technologies reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Lincolnshire, Illinois 2019-12-23 0000877212 1969
504 ZBH Zimmer Biomet reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Warsaw, Indiana 2001-08-07 0001136869 1927
505 ZION Zions Bancorp reports Financials Regional Banks Salt Lake City, Utah 2001-06-22 0000109380 1873
506 ZTS Zoetis reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Parsippany, New Jersey 2013-06-21 0001555280 1952

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List of companies in the S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500). The S&P 500 is a
free-float, capitalization-weighted index of the top 500 publicly listed stocks
in the US (top 500 by market cap). The dataset includes a list of all the
stocks contained therein.
## Data
Information on S&P 500 index used to be available on the [official webpage on the Standard and Poor's website][sp-home]
but until they publish it back, Wikipedia is the best up-to-date and open data source.
* Index listing - see <data/constituents.csv> extracted from Wikipedia's [SP500 list of companies][sp-list].
### Sources
Detailed information on the S&P 500 (primarily in XLS format) used to be obtained
from its [official webpage on the Standard and Poor's website][sp-home] - it was
free but registration was required.
* Index listing - see <data/constituents.csv>
* used to be extracted from [source Excel file on S&P website][sp-listing-dec-2014] but this no longer contains a list of constituents. (Note this Excel was actually S&P 500 EPS estimates but on sheet 4 it used to have a list of members - [previous file][sp-listing] was just members but that 404s as of Dec 2014) (Note: <del>but note you have to register and login to access</del> - no longer true as of August 2013)
* Historical performance ([source xls on S&P website][sp-historical])
[sp-home]: http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500
[sp-list]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
[sp-listing-dec-2014]: http://www.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true
[sp-listing]: http://us.spindices.com/idsexport/file.xls?hostIdentifier=48190c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&selectedModule=Constituents&selectedSubModule=ConstituentsFullList&indexId=340
[sp-historical]: http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/spf/docs/indices/SPUSA-500-USDUF--P-US-L--HistoricalData.xls
*Note*: for aggregate information on the S&P (dividends, earnings, etc.) see
[Standard and Poor's 500 Dataset][shiller].
[shiller]: http://data.okfn.org/data/s-and-p-500
### General Financial Notes
Publicly listed US companies are obliged various reports on a regular basis
with the SEC. Of these 2 types are of especial interest to investors and others
interested in their finances and business. These are:
* 10-K = Annual Report
* 10-Q = Quarterly report
## Preparation
You can run the script yourself to update the data and publish them to GitHub : see [scripts README](https://github.com/datasets/s-and-p-500-companies/blob/master/scripts/README.md).
## License
All data is licensed under the [Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and
License][pddl]. All code is licensed under the MIT/BSD license.
Note that while no credit is formally required a link back or credit to [Rufus
Pollock][rp] and the [Open Knowledge Foundation][okfn] is much appreciated.
[pddl]: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/pddl/1.0/
[rp]: http://rufuspollock.com/
[okfn]: http://okfn.org/

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Symbol,Name,Sector
MMM,3M Company,Industrials
AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,Industrials
ABT,Abbott Laboratories,Health Care
ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,Health Care
ABMD,Abiomed,Health Care
ACN,Accenture,Information Technology
ATVI,Activision Blizzard,Communication Services
ADBE,Adobe Inc.,Information Technology
AAP,Advance Auto Parts,Consumer Discretionary
AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,Information Technology
AES,AES Corp,Utilities
AFL,Aflac,Financials
A,Agilent Technologies,Health Care
APD,Air Products & Chemicals,Materials
AKAM,Akamai Technologies,Information Technology
ALK,Alaska Air Group,Industrials
ALB,Albemarle Corporation,Materials
ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,Real Estate
ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
ALGN,Align Technology,Health Care
ALLE,Allegion,Industrials
LNT,Alliant Energy,Utilities
ALL,Allstate Corp,Financials
GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),Communication Services
GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),Communication Services
MO,Altria Group Inc,Consumer Staples
AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
AMCR,Amcor plc,Materials
AEE,Ameren Corp,Utilities
AAL,American Airlines Group,Industrials
AEP,American Electric Power,Utilities
AXP,American Express,Financials
AIG,American International Group,Financials
AMT,American Tower Corp.,Real Estate
AWK,American Water Works,Utilities
AMP,Ameriprise Financial,Financials
ABC,AmerisourceBergen,Health Care
AME,Ametek,Industrials
AMGN,Amgen Inc.,Health Care
APH,Amphenol Corp,Information Technology
ADI,Analog Devices Inc.,Information Technology
ANSS,ANSYS Inc.,Information Technology
ANTM,Anthem,Health Care
AON,Aon plc,Financials
APA,APA Corporation,Energy
AAPL,Apple Inc.,Information Technology
AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,Information Technology
APTV,Aptiv PLC,Consumer Discretionary
ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,Consumer Staples
ANET,Arista Networks,Information Technology
AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,Financials
AIZ,Assurant,Financials
T,AT&T Inc.,Communication Services
ATO,Atmos Energy,Utilities
ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,Information Technology
ADP,Automatic Data Processing,Information Technology
AZO,AutoZone Inc,Consumer Discretionary
AVB,AvalonBay Communities,Real Estate
AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,Materials
BKR,Baker Hughes Co,Energy
BLL,Ball Corp,Materials
BAC,Bank of America Corp,Financials
BAX,Baxter International Inc.,Health Care
BDX,Becton Dickinson,Health Care
BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,Financials
BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,Health Care
BIIB,Biogen Inc.,Health Care
BLK,BlackRock,Financials
BA,Boeing Company,Industrials
BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
BWA,BorgWarner,Consumer Discretionary
BXP,Boston Properties,Real Estate
BSX,Boston Scientific,Health Care
BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Health Care
AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,Information Technology
BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,Information Technology
BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,Consumer Staples
CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,Industrials
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,Energy
CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,Information Technology
CPB,Campbell Soup,Consumer Staples
COF,Capital One Financial,Financials
CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,Health Care
KMX,Carmax Inc,Consumer Discretionary
CCL,Carnival Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
CARR,Carrier Global,Industrials
CTLT,Catalent,Health Care
CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,Industrials
CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,Financials
CBRE,CBRE Group,Real Estate
CDW,CDW,Information Technology
CE,Celanese,Materials
CNC,Centene Corporation,Health Care
CNP,CenterPoint Energy,Utilities
CERN,Cerner,Health Care
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,Materials
SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,Financials
CHTR,Charter Communications,Communication Services
CVX,Chevron Corp.,Energy
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,Consumer Discretionary
CB,Chubb Limited,Financials
CHD,Church & Dwight,Consumer Staples
CI,Cigna,Health Care
CINF,Cincinnati Financial,Financials
CTAS,Cintas Corporation,Industrials
CSCO,Cisco Systems,Information Technology
C,Citigroup Inc.,Financials
CFG,Citizens Financial Group,Financials
CTXS,Citrix Systems,Information Technology
CME,CME Group Inc.,Financials
CMS,CMS Energy,Utilities
KO,Coca-Cola Company,Consumer Staples
CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,Information Technology
CL,Colgate-Palmolive,Consumer Staples
CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,Communication Services
CMA,Comerica Inc.,Financials
CAG,Conagra Brands,Consumer Staples
COP,ConocoPhillips,Energy
ED,Consolidated Edison,Utilities
STZ,Constellation Brands,Consumer Staples
CPRT,Copart Inc,Industrials
GLW,Corning Inc.,Information Technology
CTVA,Corteva,Materials
COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,Consumer Staples
CCI,Crown Castle,Real Estate
CSX,CSX Corp.,Industrials
CMI,Cummins Inc.,Industrials
CVS,CVS Health,Health Care
DHI,D. R. Horton,Consumer Discretionary
DHR,Danaher Corp.,Health Care
DRI,Darden Restaurants,Consumer Discretionary
DVA,DaVita Inc.,Health Care
DE,Deere & Co.,Industrials
DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,Industrials
XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,Health Care
DVN,Devon Energy,Energy
DXCM,DexCom,Health Care
FANG,Diamondback Energy,Energy
DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,Real Estate
DFS,Discover Financial Services,Financials
DISCA,Discovery Inc. (Series A),Communication Services
DISCK,Discovery Inc. (Series C),Communication Services
DISH,Dish Network,Communication Services
DG,Dollar General,Consumer Discretionary
DLTR,Dollar Tree,Consumer Discretionary
D,Dominion Energy,Utilities
DPZ,Domino's Pizza,Consumer Discretionary
DOV,Dover Corporation,Industrials
DOW,Dow Inc.,Materials
DTE,DTE Energy Co.,Utilities
DUK,Duke Energy,Utilities
DRE,Duke Realty Corp,Real Estate
DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,Materials
DXC,DXC Technology,Information Technology
EMN,Eastman Chemical,Materials
ETN,Eaton Corporation,Industrials
EBAY,eBay Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ECL,Ecolab Inc.,Materials
EIX,Edison Int'l,Utilities
EW,Edwards Lifesciences,Health Care
EA,Electronic Arts,Communication Services
EMR,Emerson Electric Company,Industrials
ENPH,Enphase Energy,Information Technology
ETR,Entergy Corp.,Utilities
EOG,EOG Resources,Energy
EFX,Equifax Inc.,Industrials
EQIX,Equinix,Real Estate
EQR,Equity Residential,Real Estate
ESS,Essex Property Trust Inc.,Real Estate
EL,Estée Lauder Companies,Consumer Staples
ETSY,Etsy,Consumer Discretionary
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,Financials
EVRG,Evergy,Utilities
ES,Eversource Energy,Utilities
EXC,Exelon Corp.,Utilities
EXPE,Expedia Group,Consumer Discretionary
EXPD,Expeditors,Industrials
EXR,Extra Space Storage,Real Estate
XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,Energy
FFIV,F5 Networks,Information Technology
FB,Facebook Inc.,Communication Services
FAST,Fastenal Co,Industrials
FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,Real Estate
FDX,FedEx Corporation,Industrials
FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,Information Technology
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,Financials
FRC,First Republic Bank,Financials
FE,FirstEnergy Corp,Utilities
FISV,Fiserv Inc,Information Technology
FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,Information Technology
FLIR,FLIR Systems,Information Technology
FLS,Flowserve Corporation,Industrials
FMC,FMC Corporation,Materials
F,Ford Motor Company,Consumer Discretionary
FTNT,Fortinet,Information Technology
FTV,Fortive Corp,Industrials
FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,Industrials
FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),Communication Services
FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),Communication Services
BEN,Franklin Resources,Financials
FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,Materials
GPS,Gap Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,Consumer Discretionary
IT,Gartner Inc,Information Technology
GD,General Dynamics,Industrials
GE,General Electric,Industrials
GIS,General Mills,Consumer Staples
GM,General Motors,Consumer Discretionary
GPC,Genuine Parts,Consumer Discretionary
GILD,Gilead Sciences,Health Care
GPN,Global Payments Inc.,Information Technology
GL,Globe Life Inc.,Financials
GS,Goldman Sachs Group,Financials
GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,Industrials
HAL,Halliburton Co.,Energy
HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,Financials
HAS,Hasbro Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
HCA,HCA Healthcare,Health Care
PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,Real Estate
HSIC,Henry Schein,Health Care
HES,Hess Corporation,Energy
HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,Information Technology
HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,Energy
HOLX,Hologic,Health Care
HD,Home Depot,Consumer Discretionary
HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,Industrials
HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,Consumer Staples
HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,Real Estate
HWM,Howmet Aerospace,Industrials
HPQ,HP Inc.,Information Technology
HUM,Humana Inc.,Health Care
HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,Financials
HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,Industrials
IEX,IDEX Corporation,Industrials
IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,Health Care
INFO,IHS Markit,Industrials
ITW,Illinois Tool Works,Industrials
ILMN,Illumina Inc,Health Care
INCY,Incyte,Health Care
IR,Ingersoll Rand,Industrials
INTC,Intel Corp.,Information Technology
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,Financials
IBM,International Business Machines,Information Technology
IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,Materials
IP,International Paper,Materials
IPG,Interpublic Group,Communication Services
INTU,Intuit Inc.,Information Technology
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,Health Care
IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,Financials
IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,Information Technology
IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,Health Care
IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,Real Estate
JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,Industrials
JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,Information Technology
J,Jacobs Engineering Group,Industrials
SJM,JM Smucker,Consumer Staples
JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,Health Care
JCI,Johnson Controls International,Industrials
JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Financials
JNPR,Juniper Networks,Information Technology
KSU,Kansas City Southern,Industrials
K,Kellogg Co.,Consumer Staples
KEY,KeyCorp,Financials
KEYS,Keysight Technologies,Information Technology
KMB,Kimberly-Clark,Consumer Staples
KIM,Kimco Realty,Real Estate
KMI,Kinder Morgan,Energy
KLAC,KLA Corporation,Information Technology
KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,Consumer Staples
KR,Kroger Co.,Consumer Staples
LB,L Brands Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
LHX,L3Harris Technologies,Industrials
LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,Health Care
LRCX,Lam Research,Information Technology
LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,Consumer Staples
LVS,Las Vegas Sands,Consumer Discretionary
LEG,Leggett & Platt,Consumer Discretionary
LDOS,Leidos Holdings,Information Technology
LEN,Lennar Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,Health Care
LNC,Lincoln National,Financials
LIN,Linde plc,Materials
LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,Communication Services
LKQ,LKQ Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,Industrials
L,Loews Corp.,Financials
LOW,Lowe's Cos.,Consumer Discretionary
LUMN,Lumen Technologies,Communication Services
LYB,LyondellBasell,Materials
MTB,M&T Bank,Financials
MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,Energy
MPC,Marathon Petroleum,Energy
MKTX,MarketAxess,Financials
MAR,Marriott International,Consumer Discretionary
MMC,Marsh & McLennan,Financials
MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,Materials
MAS,Masco Corp.,Industrials
MA,Mastercard Inc.,Information Technology
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,Information Technology
MKC,McCormick & Co.,Consumer Staples
MCD,McDonald's Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
MCK,McKesson Corp.,Health Care
MDT,Medtronic plc,Health Care
MRK,Merck & Co.,Health Care
MET,MetLife Inc.,Financials
MTD,Mettler Toledo,Health Care
MGM,MGM Resorts International,Consumer Discretionary
MCHP,Microchip Technology,Information Technology
MU,Micron Technology,Information Technology
MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,Information Technology
MAA,Mid-America Apartments,Real Estate
MHK,Mohawk Industries,Consumer Discretionary
TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,Consumer Staples
MDLZ,Mondelez International,Consumer Staples
MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,Information Technology
MNST,Monster Beverage,Consumer Staples
MCO,Moody's Corp,Financials
MS,Morgan Stanley,Financials
MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,Information Technology
MSCI,MSCI Inc,Financials
NDAQ,Nasdaq Inc.,Financials
NTAP,NetApp,Information Technology
NFLX,Netflix Inc.,Communication Services
NWL,Newell Brands,Consumer Discretionary
NEM,Newmont Corporation,Materials
NWSA,News Corp (Class A),Communication Services
NWS,News Corp (Class B),Communication Services
NEE,NextEra Energy,Utilities
NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,Industrials
NKE,Nike Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
NI,NiSource Inc.,Utilities
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,Industrials
NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,Financials
NOC,Northrop Grumman,Industrials
NLOK,NortonLifeLock,Information Technology
NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,Consumer Discretionary
NOV,NOV Inc.,Energy
NRG,NRG Energy,Utilities
NUE,Nucor Corp.,Materials
NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,Information Technology
NVR,NVR Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,Consumer Discretionary
OXY,Occidental Petroleum,Energy
ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,Industrials
OMC,Omnicom Group,Communication Services
OKE,Oneok,Energy
ORCL,Oracle Corp.,Information Technology
OTIS,Otis Worldwide,Industrials
PCAR,Paccar,Industrials
PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,Materials
PH,Parker-Hannifin,Industrials
PAYX,Paychex Inc.,Information Technology
PAYC,Paycom,Information Technology
PYPL,PayPal,Information Technology
PNR,Pentair plc,Industrials
PBCT,People's United Financial,Financials
PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,Consumer Staples
PKI,PerkinElmer,Health Care
PRGO,Perrigo,Health Care
PFE,Pfizer Inc.,Health Care
PM,Philip Morris International,Consumer Staples
PSX,Phillips 66,Energy
PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,Utilities
PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,Energy
PNC,PNC Financial Services,Financials
POOL,Pool Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
PPG,PPG Industries,Materials
PPL,PPL Corp.,Utilities
PFG,Principal Financial Group,Financials
PG,Procter & Gamble,Consumer Staples
PGR,Progressive Corp.,Financials
PLD,Prologis,Real Estate
PRU,Prudential Financial,Financials
PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),Utilities
PSA,Public Storage,Real Estate
PHM,PulteGroup,Consumer Discretionary
PVH,PVH Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
QRVO,Qorvo,Information Technology
QCOM,Qualcomm,Information Technology
PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,Industrials
DGX,Quest Diagnostics,Health Care
RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
RJF,Raymond James Financial,Financials
RTX,Raytheon Technologies,Industrials
O,Realty Income Corporation,Real Estate
REG,Regency Centers Corporation,Real Estate
REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
RF,Regions Financial Corp.,Financials
RSG,Republic Services Inc,Industrials
RMD,ResMed,Health Care
RHI,Robert Half International,Industrials
ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,Industrials
ROL,Rollins Inc.,Industrials
ROP,Roper Technologies,Industrials
ROST,Ross Stores,Consumer Discretionary
RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,Consumer Discretionary
SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,Financials
CRM,Salesforce.com,Information Technology
SBAC,SBA Communications,Real Estate
SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,Energy
STX,Seagate Technology,Information Technology
SEE,Sealed Air,Materials
SRE,Sempra Energy,Utilities
NOW,ServiceNow,Information Technology
SHW,Sherwin-Williams,Materials
SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,Real Estate
SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,Information Technology
SLG,SL Green Realty,Real Estate
SNA,Snap-on,Industrials
SO,Southern Company,Utilities
LUV,Southwest Airlines,Industrials
SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,Industrials
SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
STT,State Street Corp.,Financials
STE,Steris,Health Care
SYK,Stryker Corp.,Health Care
SIVB,SVB Financial,Financials
SYF,Synchrony Financial,Financials
SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,Information Technology
SYY,Sysco Corp.,Consumer Staples
TMUS,T-Mobile US,Communication Services
TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,Financials
TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,Communication Services
TPR,Tapestry Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TGT,Target Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,Information Technology
TDY,Teledyne Technologies,Industrials
TFX,Teleflex,Health Care
TER,Teradyne,Information Technology
TSLA,Tesla Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TXN,Texas Instruments,Information Technology
TXT,Textron Inc.,Industrials
BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,Financials
CLX,The Clorox Company,Consumer Staples
COO,The Cooper Companies,Health Care
HSY,The Hershey Company,Consumer Staples
MOS,The Mosaic Company,Materials
TRV,The Travelers Companies,Financials
DIS,The Walt Disney Company,Communication Services
TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,Health Care
TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,Consumer Discretionary
TT,Trane Technologies plc,Industrials
TDG,TransDigm Group,Industrials
TRMB,Trimble Inc.,Information Technology
TFC,Truist Financial,Financials
TWTR,Twitter Inc.,Communication Services
TYL,Tyler Technologies,Information Technology
TSN,Tyson Foods,Consumer Staples
USB,U.S. Bancorp,Financials
UDR,UDR Inc.,Real Estate
ULTA,Ulta Beauty,Consumer Discretionary
UAA,Under Armour (Class A),Consumer Discretionary
UA,Under Armour (Class C),Consumer Discretionary
UNP,Union Pacific Corp,Industrials
UAL,United Airlines Holdings,Industrials
UPS,United Parcel Service,Industrials
URI,United Rentals Inc.,Industrials
UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,Health Care
UHS,Universal Health Services,Health Care
UNM,Unum Group,Financials
VLO,Valero Energy,Energy
VAR,Varian Medical Systems,Health Care
VTR,Ventas Inc,Real Estate
VRSN,Verisign Inc.,Information Technology
VRSK,Verisk Analytics,Industrials
VZ,Verizon Communications,Communication Services
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,Health Care
VFC,VF Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
VIAC,ViacomCBS,Communication Services
VTRS,Viatris,Health Care
V,Visa Inc.,Information Technology
VNT,Vontier,Information Technology
VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,Real Estate
VMC,Vulcan Materials,Materials
WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,Financials
WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,Consumer Staples
WMT,Walmart,Consumer Staples
WM,Waste Management Inc.,Industrials
WAT,Waters Corporation,Health Care
WEC,WEC Energy Group,Utilities
WFC,Wells Fargo,Financials
WELL,Welltower Inc.,Real Estate
WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,Health Care
WDC,Western Digital,Information Technology
WU,Western Union Co,Information Technology
WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,Industrials
WRK,WestRock,Materials
WY,Weyerhaeuser,Real Estate
WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
WMB,Williams Companies,Energy
WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,Financials
WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,Consumer Discretionary
XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,Utilities
XRX,Xerox,Information Technology
XLNX,Xilinx,Information Technology
XYL,Xylem Inc.,Industrials
YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,Information Technology
ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,Health Care
ZION,Zions Bancorp,Financials
ZTS,Zoetis,Health Care
1 Symbol Name Sector
2 MMM 3M Company Industrials
3 AOS A.O. Smith Corp Industrials
4 ABT Abbott Laboratories Health Care
5 ABBV AbbVie Inc. Health Care
6 ABMD Abiomed Health Care
7 ACN Accenture Information Technology
8 ATVI Activision Blizzard Communication Services
9 ADBE Adobe Inc. Information Technology
10 AAP Advance Auto Parts Consumer Discretionary
11 AMD Advanced Micro Devices Information Technology
12 AES AES Corp Utilities
13 AFL Aflac Financials
14 A Agilent Technologies Health Care
15 APD Air Products & Chemicals Materials
16 AKAM Akamai Technologies Information Technology
17 ALK Alaska Air Group Industrials
18 ALB Albemarle Corporation Materials
19 ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities Real Estate
20 ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals Health Care
21 ALGN Align Technology Health Care
22 ALLE Allegion Industrials
23 LNT Alliant Energy Utilities
24 ALL Allstate Corp Financials
25 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) Communication Services
26 GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Communication Services
27 MO Altria Group Inc Consumer Staples
28 AMZN Amazon.com Inc. Consumer Discretionary
29 AMCR Amcor plc Materials
30 AEE Ameren Corp Utilities
31 AAL American Airlines Group Industrials
32 AEP American Electric Power Utilities
33 AXP American Express Financials
34 AIG American International Group Financials
35 AMT American Tower Corp. Real Estate
36 AWK American Water Works Utilities
37 AMP Ameriprise Financial Financials
38 ABC AmerisourceBergen Health Care
39 AME Ametek Industrials
40 AMGN Amgen Inc. Health Care
41 APH Amphenol Corp Information Technology
42 ADI Analog Devices Inc. Information Technology
43 ANSS ANSYS Inc. Information Technology
44 ANTM Anthem Health Care
45 AON Aon plc Financials
46 APA APA Corporation Energy
47 AAPL Apple Inc. Information Technology
48 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. Information Technology
49 APTV Aptiv PLC Consumer Discretionary
50 ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Consumer Staples
51 ANET Arista Networks Information Technology
52 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financials
53 AIZ Assurant Financials
54 T AT&T Inc. Communication Services
55 ATO Atmos Energy Utilities
56 ADSK Autodesk Inc. Information Technology
57 ADP Automatic Data Processing Information Technology
58 AZO AutoZone Inc Consumer Discretionary
59 AVB AvalonBay Communities Real Estate
60 AVY Avery Dennison Corp Materials
61 BKR Baker Hughes Co Energy
62 BLL Ball Corp Materials
63 BAC Bank of America Corp Financials
64 BAX Baxter International Inc. Health Care
65 BDX Becton Dickinson Health Care
66 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Financials
67 BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Consumer Discretionary
68 BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories Health Care
69 BIIB Biogen Inc. Health Care
70 BLK BlackRock Financials
71 BA Boeing Company Industrials
72 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
73 BWA BorgWarner Consumer Discretionary
74 BXP Boston Properties Real Estate
75 BSX Boston Scientific Health Care
76 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Health Care
77 AVGO Broadcom Inc. Information Technology
78 BR Broadridge Financial Solutions Information Technology
79 BF.B Brown-Forman Corp. Consumer Staples
80 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide Industrials
81 COG Cabot Oil & Gas Energy
82 CDNS Cadence Design Systems Information Technology
83 CPB Campbell Soup Consumer Staples
84 COF Capital One Financial Financials
85 CAH Cardinal Health Inc. Health Care
86 KMX Carmax Inc Consumer Discretionary
87 CCL Carnival Corp. Consumer Discretionary
88 CARR Carrier Global Industrials
89 CTLT Catalent Health Care
90 CAT Caterpillar Inc. Industrials
91 CBOE Cboe Global Markets Financials
92 CBRE CBRE Group Real Estate
93 CDW CDW Information Technology
94 CE Celanese Materials
95 CNC Centene Corporation Health Care
96 CNP CenterPoint Energy Utilities
97 CERN Cerner Health Care
98 CF CF Industries Holdings Inc Materials
99 SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation Financials
100 CHTR Charter Communications Communication Services
101 CVX Chevron Corp. Energy
102 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Consumer Discretionary
103 CB Chubb Limited Financials
104 CHD Church & Dwight Consumer Staples
105 CI Cigna Health Care
106 CINF Cincinnati Financial Financials
107 CTAS Cintas Corporation Industrials
108 CSCO Cisco Systems Information Technology
109 C Citigroup Inc. Financials
110 CFG Citizens Financial Group Financials
111 CTXS Citrix Systems Information Technology
112 CME CME Group Inc. Financials
113 CMS CMS Energy Utilities
114 KO Coca-Cola Company Consumer Staples
115 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Information Technology
116 CL Colgate-Palmolive Consumer Staples
117 CMCSA Comcast Corp. Communication Services
118 CMA Comerica Inc. Financials
119 CAG Conagra Brands Consumer Staples
120 COP ConocoPhillips Energy
121 ED Consolidated Edison Utilities
122 STZ Constellation Brands Consumer Staples
123 CPRT Copart Inc Industrials
124 GLW Corning Inc. Information Technology
125 CTVA Corteva Materials
126 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. Consumer Staples
127 CCI Crown Castle Real Estate
128 CSX CSX Corp. Industrials
129 CMI Cummins Inc. Industrials
130 CVS CVS Health Health Care
131 DHI D. R. Horton Consumer Discretionary
132 DHR Danaher Corp. Health Care
133 DRI Darden Restaurants Consumer Discretionary
134 DVA DaVita Inc. Health Care
135 DE Deere & Co. Industrials
136 DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Industrials
137 XRAY Dentsply Sirona Health Care
138 DVN Devon Energy Energy
139 DXCM DexCom Health Care
140 FANG Diamondback Energy Energy
141 DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc Real Estate
142 DFS Discover Financial Services Financials
143 DISCA Discovery Inc. (Series A) Communication Services
144 DISCK Discovery Inc. (Series C) Communication Services
145 DISH Dish Network Communication Services
146 DG Dollar General Consumer Discretionary
147 DLTR Dollar Tree Consumer Discretionary
148 D Dominion Energy Utilities
149 DPZ Domino's Pizza Consumer Discretionary
150 DOV Dover Corporation Industrials
151 DOW Dow Inc. Materials
152 DTE DTE Energy Co. Utilities
153 DUK Duke Energy Utilities
154 DRE Duke Realty Corp Real Estate
155 DD DuPont de Nemours Inc Materials
156 DXC DXC Technology Information Technology
157 EMN Eastman Chemical Materials
158 ETN Eaton Corporation Industrials
159 EBAY eBay Inc. Consumer Discretionary
160 ECL Ecolab Inc. Materials
161 EIX Edison Int'l Utilities
162 EW Edwards Lifesciences Health Care
163 EA Electronic Arts Communication Services
164 EMR Emerson Electric Company Industrials
165 ENPH Enphase Energy Information Technology
166 ETR Entergy Corp. Utilities
167 EOG EOG Resources Energy
168 EFX Equifax Inc. Industrials
169 EQIX Equinix Real Estate
170 EQR Equity Residential Real Estate
171 ESS Essex Property Trust Inc. Real Estate
172 EL Estée Lauder Companies Consumer Staples
173 ETSY Etsy Consumer Discretionary
174 RE Everest Re Group Ltd. Financials
175 EVRG Evergy Utilities
176 ES Eversource Energy Utilities
177 EXC Exelon Corp. Utilities
178 EXPE Expedia Group Consumer Discretionary
179 EXPD Expeditors Industrials
180 EXR Extra Space Storage Real Estate
181 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. Energy
182 FFIV F5 Networks Information Technology
183 FB Facebook Inc. Communication Services
184 FAST Fastenal Co Industrials
185 FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust Real Estate
186 FDX FedEx Corporation Industrials
187 FIS Fidelity National Information Services Information Technology
188 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Financials
189 FRC First Republic Bank Financials
190 FE FirstEnergy Corp Utilities
191 FISV Fiserv Inc Information Technology
192 FLT FleetCor Technologies Inc Information Technology
193 FLIR FLIR Systems Information Technology
194 FLS Flowserve Corporation Industrials
195 FMC FMC Corporation Materials
196 F Ford Motor Company Consumer Discretionary
197 FTNT Fortinet Information Technology
198 FTV Fortive Corp Industrials
199 FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security Industrials
200 FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) Communication Services
201 FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) Communication Services
202 BEN Franklin Resources Financials
203 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Materials
204 GPS Gap Inc. Consumer Discretionary
205 GRMN Garmin Ltd. Consumer Discretionary
206 IT Gartner Inc Information Technology
207 GD General Dynamics Industrials
208 GE General Electric Industrials
209 GIS General Mills Consumer Staples
210 GM General Motors Consumer Discretionary
211 GPC Genuine Parts Consumer Discretionary
212 GILD Gilead Sciences Health Care
213 GPN Global Payments Inc. Information Technology
214 GL Globe Life Inc. Financials
215 GS Goldman Sachs Group Financials
216 GWW Grainger (W.W.) Inc. Industrials
217 HAL Halliburton Co. Energy
218 HBI Hanesbrands Inc Consumer Discretionary
219 HIG Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. Financials
220 HAS Hasbro Inc. Consumer Discretionary
221 HCA HCA Healthcare Health Care
222 PEAK Healthpeak Properties Real Estate
223 HSIC Henry Schein Health Care
224 HES Hess Corporation Energy
225 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Information Technology
226 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
227 HFC HollyFrontier Corp Energy
228 HOLX Hologic Health Care
229 HD Home Depot Consumer Discretionary
230 HON Honeywell Int'l Inc. Industrials
231 HRL Hormel Foods Corp. Consumer Staples
232 HST Host Hotels & Resorts Real Estate
233 HWM Howmet Aerospace Industrials
234 HPQ HP Inc. Information Technology
235 HUM Humana Inc. Health Care
236 HBAN Huntington Bancshares Financials
237 HII Huntington Ingalls Industries Industrials
238 IEX IDEX Corporation Industrials
239 IDXX Idexx Laboratories Health Care
240 INFO IHS Markit Industrials
241 ITW Illinois Tool Works Industrials
242 ILMN Illumina Inc Health Care
243 INCY Incyte Health Care
244 IR Ingersoll Rand Industrials
245 INTC Intel Corp. Information Technology
246 ICE Intercontinental Exchange Financials
247 IBM International Business Machines Information Technology
248 IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Materials
249 IP International Paper Materials
250 IPG Interpublic Group Communication Services
251 INTU Intuit Inc. Information Technology
252 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. Health Care
253 IVZ Invesco Ltd. Financials
254 IPGP IPG Photonics Corp. Information Technology
255 IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. Health Care
256 IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated Real Estate
257 JBHT J. B. Hunt Transport Services Industrials
258 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates Information Technology
259 J Jacobs Engineering Group Industrials
260 SJM JM Smucker Consumer Staples
261 JNJ Johnson & Johnson Health Care
262 JCI Johnson Controls International Industrials
263 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financials
264 JNPR Juniper Networks Information Technology
265 KSU Kansas City Southern Industrials
266 K Kellogg Co. Consumer Staples
267 KEY KeyCorp Financials
268 KEYS Keysight Technologies Information Technology
269 KMB Kimberly-Clark Consumer Staples
270 KIM Kimco Realty Real Estate
271 KMI Kinder Morgan Energy
272 KLAC KLA Corporation Information Technology
273 KHC Kraft Heinz Co Consumer Staples
274 KR Kroger Co. Consumer Staples
275 LB L Brands Inc. Consumer Discretionary
276 LHX L3Harris Technologies Industrials
277 LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holding Health Care
278 LRCX Lam Research Information Technology
279 LW Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Consumer Staples
280 LVS Las Vegas Sands Consumer Discretionary
281 LEG Leggett & Platt Consumer Discretionary
282 LDOS Leidos Holdings Information Technology
283 LEN Lennar Corp. Consumer Discretionary
284 LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. Health Care
285 LNC Lincoln National Financials
286 LIN Linde plc Materials
287 LYV Live Nation Entertainment Communication Services
288 LKQ LKQ Corporation Consumer Discretionary
289 LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. Industrials
290 L Loews Corp. Financials
291 LOW Lowe's Cos. Consumer Discretionary
292 LUMN Lumen Technologies Communication Services
293 LYB LyondellBasell Materials
294 MTB M&T Bank Financials
295 MRO Marathon Oil Corp. Energy
296 MPC Marathon Petroleum Energy
297 MKTX MarketAxess Financials
298 MAR Marriott International Consumer Discretionary
299 MMC Marsh & McLennan Financials
300 MLM Martin Marietta Materials Materials
301 MAS Masco Corp. Industrials
302 MA Mastercard Inc. Information Technology
303 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Information Technology
304 MKC McCormick & Co. Consumer Staples
305 MCD McDonald's Corp. Consumer Discretionary
306 MCK McKesson Corp. Health Care
307 MDT Medtronic plc Health Care
308 MRK Merck & Co. Health Care
309 MET MetLife Inc. Financials
310 MTD Mettler Toledo Health Care
311 MGM MGM Resorts International Consumer Discretionary
312 MCHP Microchip Technology Information Technology
313 MU Micron Technology Information Technology
314 MSFT Microsoft Corp. Information Technology
315 MAA Mid-America Apartments Real Estate
316 MHK Mohawk Industries Consumer Discretionary
317 TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company Consumer Staples
318 MDLZ Mondelez International Consumer Staples
319 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Information Technology
320 MNST Monster Beverage Consumer Staples
321 MCO Moody's Corp Financials
322 MS Morgan Stanley Financials
323 MSI Motorola Solutions Inc. Information Technology
324 MSCI MSCI Inc Financials
325 NDAQ Nasdaq Inc. Financials
326 NTAP NetApp Information Technology
327 NFLX Netflix Inc. Communication Services
328 NWL Newell Brands Consumer Discretionary
329 NEM Newmont Corporation Materials
330 NWSA News Corp (Class A) Communication Services
331 NWS News Corp (Class B) Communication Services
332 NEE NextEra Energy Utilities
333 NLSN Nielsen Holdings Industrials
334 NKE Nike Inc. Consumer Discretionary
335 NI NiSource Inc. Utilities
336 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. Industrials
337 NTRS Northern Trust Corp. Financials
338 NOC Northrop Grumman Industrials
339 NLOK NortonLifeLock Information Technology
340 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Consumer Discretionary
341 NOV NOV Inc. Energy
342 NRG NRG Energy Utilities
343 NUE Nucor Corp. Materials
344 NVDA Nvidia Corporation Information Technology
345 NVR NVR Inc. Consumer Discretionary
346 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Consumer Discretionary
347 OXY Occidental Petroleum Energy
348 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Industrials
349 OMC Omnicom Group Communication Services
350 OKE Oneok Energy
351 ORCL Oracle Corp. Information Technology
352 OTIS Otis Worldwide Industrials
353 PCAR Paccar Industrials
354 PKG Packaging Corporation of America Materials
355 PH Parker-Hannifin Industrials
356 PAYX Paychex Inc. Information Technology
357 PAYC Paycom Information Technology
358 PYPL PayPal Information Technology
359 PNR Pentair plc Industrials
360 PBCT People's United Financial Financials
361 PEP PepsiCo Inc. Consumer Staples
362 PKI PerkinElmer Health Care
363 PRGO Perrigo Health Care
364 PFE Pfizer Inc. Health Care
365 PM Philip Morris International Consumer Staples
366 PSX Phillips 66 Energy
367 PNW Pinnacle West Capital Utilities
368 PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Energy
369 PNC PNC Financial Services Financials
370 POOL Pool Corporation Consumer Discretionary
371 PPG PPG Industries Materials
372 PPL PPL Corp. Utilities
373 PFG Principal Financial Group Financials
374 PG Procter & Gamble Consumer Staples
375 PGR Progressive Corp. Financials
376 PLD Prologis Real Estate
377 PRU Prudential Financial Financials
378 PEG Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Utilities
379 PSA Public Storage Real Estate
380 PHM PulteGroup Consumer Discretionary
381 PVH PVH Corp. Consumer Discretionary
382 QRVO Qorvo Information Technology
383 QCOM Qualcomm Information Technology
384 PWR Quanta Services Inc. Industrials
385 DGX Quest Diagnostics Health Care
386 RL Ralph Lauren Corporation Consumer Discretionary
387 RJF Raymond James Financial Financials
388 RTX Raytheon Technologies Industrials
389 O Realty Income Corporation Real Estate
390 REG Regency Centers Corporation Real Estate
391 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Health Care
392 RF Regions Financial Corp. Financials
393 RSG Republic Services Inc Industrials
394 RMD ResMed Health Care
395 RHI Robert Half International Industrials
396 ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials
397 ROL Rollins Inc. Industrials
398 ROP Roper Technologies Industrials
399 ROST Ross Stores Consumer Discretionary
400 RCL Royal Caribbean Group Consumer Discretionary
401 SPGI S&P Global Inc. Financials
402 CRM Salesforce.com Information Technology
403 SBAC SBA Communications Real Estate
404 SLB Schlumberger Ltd. Energy
405 STX Seagate Technology Information Technology
406 SEE Sealed Air Materials
407 SRE Sempra Energy Utilities
408 NOW ServiceNow Information Technology
409 SHW Sherwin-Williams Materials
410 SPG Simon Property Group Inc Real Estate
411 SWKS Skyworks Solutions Information Technology
412 SLG SL Green Realty Real Estate
413 SNA Snap-on Industrials
414 SO Southern Company Utilities
415 LUV Southwest Airlines Industrials
416 SWK Stanley Black & Decker Industrials
417 SBUX Starbucks Corp. Consumer Discretionary
418 STT State Street Corp. Financials
419 STE Steris Health Care
420 SYK Stryker Corp. Health Care
421 SIVB SVB Financial Financials
422 SYF Synchrony Financial Financials
423 SNPS Synopsys Inc. Information Technology
424 SYY Sysco Corp. Consumer Staples
425 TMUS T-Mobile US Communication Services
426 TROW T. Rowe Price Group Financials
427 TTWO Take-Two Interactive Communication Services
428 TPR Tapestry Inc. Consumer Discretionary
429 TGT Target Corp. Consumer Discretionary
430 TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Information Technology
431 TDY Teledyne Technologies Industrials
432 TFX Teleflex Health Care
433 TER Teradyne Information Technology
434 TSLA Tesla Inc. Consumer Discretionary
435 TXN Texas Instruments Information Technology
436 TXT Textron Inc. Industrials
437 BK The Bank of New York Mellon Financials
438 CLX The Clorox Company Consumer Staples
439 COO The Cooper Companies Health Care
440 HSY The Hershey Company Consumer Staples
441 MOS The Mosaic Company Materials
442 TRV The Travelers Companies Financials
443 DIS The Walt Disney Company Communication Services
444 TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Health Care
445 TJX TJX Companies Inc. Consumer Discretionary
446 TSCO Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary
447 TT Trane Technologies plc Industrials
448 TDG TransDigm Group Industrials
449 TRMB Trimble Inc. Information Technology
450 TFC Truist Financial Financials
451 TWTR Twitter Inc. Communication Services
452 TYL Tyler Technologies Information Technology
453 TSN Tyson Foods Consumer Staples
454 USB U.S. Bancorp Financials
455 UDR UDR Inc. Real Estate
456 ULTA Ulta Beauty Consumer Discretionary
457 UAA Under Armour (Class A) Consumer Discretionary
458 UA Under Armour (Class C) Consumer Discretionary
459 UNP Union Pacific Corp Industrials
460 UAL United Airlines Holdings Industrials
461 UPS United Parcel Service Industrials
462 URI United Rentals Inc. Industrials
463 UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. Health Care
464 UHS Universal Health Services Health Care
465 UNM Unum Group Financials
466 VLO Valero Energy Energy
467 VAR Varian Medical Systems Health Care
468 VTR Ventas Inc Real Estate
469 VRSN Verisign Inc. Information Technology
470 VRSK Verisk Analytics Industrials
471 VZ Verizon Communications Communication Services
472 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Health Care
473 VFC VF Corporation Consumer Discretionary
474 VIAC ViacomCBS Communication Services
475 VTRS Viatris Health Care
476 V Visa Inc. Information Technology
477 VNT Vontier Information Technology
478 VNO Vornado Realty Trust Real Estate
479 VMC Vulcan Materials Materials
480 WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation Financials
481 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Consumer Staples
482 WMT Walmart Consumer Staples
483 WM Waste Management Inc. Industrials
484 WAT Waters Corporation Health Care
485 WEC WEC Energy Group Utilities
486 WFC Wells Fargo Financials
487 WELL Welltower Inc. Real Estate
488 WST West Pharmaceutical Services Health Care
489 WDC Western Digital Information Technology
490 WU Western Union Co Information Technology
491 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp Industrials
492 WRK WestRock Materials
493 WY Weyerhaeuser Real Estate
494 WHR Whirlpool Corp. Consumer Discretionary
495 WMB Williams Companies Energy
496 WLTW Willis Towers Watson Financials
497 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd Consumer Discretionary
498 XEL Xcel Energy Inc Utilities
499 XRX Xerox Information Technology
500 XLNX Xilinx Information Technology
501 XYL Xylem Inc. Industrials
502 YUM Yum! Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary
503 ZBRA Zebra Technologies Information Technology
504 ZBH Zimmer Biomet Health Care
505 ZION Zions Bancorp Financials
506 ZTS Zoetis Health Care

506
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@ -1,506 +0,0 @@
Symbol,Name,Sector
MMM,3M Company,Industrials
AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,Industrials
ABT,Abbott Laboratories,Health Care
ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,Health Care
ABMD,Abiomed,Health Care
ACN,Accenture,Information Technology
ATVI,Activision Blizzard,Communication Services
ADBE,Adobe Inc.,Information Technology
AAP,Advance Auto Parts,Consumer Discretionary
AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,Information Technology
AES,AES Corp,Utilities
AFL,Aflac,Financials
A,Agilent Technologies,Health Care
APD,Air Products & Chemicals,Materials
AKAM,Akamai Technologies,Information Technology
ALK,Alaska Air Group,Industrials
ALB,Albemarle Corporation,Materials
ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,Real Estate
ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
ALGN,Align Technology,Health Care
ALLE,Allegion,Industrials
LNT,Alliant Energy,Utilities
ALL,Allstate Corp,Financials
GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),Communication Services
GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),Communication Services
MO,Altria Group Inc,Consumer Staples
AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
AMCR,Amcor plc,Materials
AEE,Ameren Corp,Utilities
AAL,American Airlines Group,Industrials
AEP,American Electric Power,Utilities
AXP,American Express,Financials
AIG,American International Group,Financials
AMT,American Tower Corp.,Real Estate
AWK,American Water Works,Utilities
AMP,Ameriprise Financial,Financials
ABC,AmerisourceBergen,Health Care
AME,Ametek,Industrials
AMGN,Amgen Inc.,Health Care
APH,Amphenol Corp,Information Technology
ADI,Analog Devices Inc.,Information Technology
ANSS,ANSYS Inc.,Information Technology
ANTM,Anthem,Health Care
AON,Aon plc,Financials
APA,APA Corporation,Energy
AAPL,Apple Inc.,Information Technology
AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,Information Technology
APTV,Aptiv PLC,Consumer Discretionary
ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,Consumer Staples
ANET,Arista Networks,Information Technology
AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,Financials
AIZ,Assurant,Financials
T,AT&T Inc.,Communication Services
ATO,Atmos Energy,Utilities
ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,Information Technology
ADP,Automatic Data Processing,Information Technology
AZO,AutoZone Inc,Consumer Discretionary
AVB,AvalonBay Communities,Real Estate
AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,Materials
BKR,Baker Hughes Co,Energy
BLL,Ball Corp,Materials
BAC,Bank of America Corp,Financials
BAX,Baxter International Inc.,Health Care
BDX,Becton Dickinson,Health Care
BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,Financials
BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,Health Care
BIIB,Biogen Inc.,Health Care
BLK,BlackRock,Financials
BA,Boeing Company,Industrials
BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
BWA,BorgWarner,Consumer Discretionary
BXP,Boston Properties,Real Estate
BSX,Boston Scientific,Health Care
BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Health Care
AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,Information Technology
BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,Information Technology
BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,Consumer Staples
CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,Industrials
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,Energy
CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,Information Technology
CPB,Campbell Soup,Consumer Staples
COF,Capital One Financial,Financials
CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,Health Care
KMX,Carmax Inc,Consumer Discretionary
CCL,Carnival Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
CARR,Carrier Global,Industrials
CTLT,Catalent,Health Care
CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,Industrials
CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,Financials
CBRE,CBRE Group,Real Estate
CDW,CDW,Information Technology
CE,Celanese,Materials
CNC,Centene Corporation,Health Care
CNP,CenterPoint Energy,Utilities
CERN,Cerner,Health Care
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,Materials
SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,Financials
CHTR,Charter Communications,Communication Services
CVX,Chevron Corp.,Energy
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,Consumer Discretionary
CB,Chubb Limited,Financials
CHD,Church & Dwight,Consumer Staples
CI,Cigna,Health Care
CINF,Cincinnati Financial,Financials
CTAS,Cintas Corporation,Industrials
CSCO,Cisco Systems,Information Technology
C,Citigroup Inc.,Financials
CFG,Citizens Financial Group,Financials
CTXS,Citrix Systems,Information Technology
CME,CME Group Inc.,Financials
CMS,CMS Energy,Utilities
KO,Coca-Cola Company,Consumer Staples
CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,Information Technology
CL,Colgate-Palmolive,Consumer Staples
CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,Communication Services
CMA,Comerica Inc.,Financials
CAG,Conagra Brands,Consumer Staples
COP,ConocoPhillips,Energy
ED,Consolidated Edison,Utilities
STZ,Constellation Brands,Consumer Staples
CPRT,Copart Inc,Industrials
GLW,Corning Inc.,Information Technology
CTVA,Corteva,Materials
COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,Consumer Staples
CCI,Crown Castle,Real Estate
CSX,CSX Corp.,Industrials
CMI,Cummins Inc.,Industrials
CVS,CVS Health,Health Care
DHI,D. R. Horton,Consumer Discretionary
DHR,Danaher Corp.,Health Care
DRI,Darden Restaurants,Consumer Discretionary
DVA,DaVita Inc.,Health Care
DE,Deere & Co.,Industrials
DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,Industrials
XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,Health Care
DVN,Devon Energy,Energy
DXCM,DexCom,Health Care
FANG,Diamondback Energy,Energy
DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,Real Estate
DFS,Discover Financial Services,Financials
DISCA,Discovery Inc. (Series A),Communication Services
DISCK,Discovery Inc. (Series C),Communication Services
DISH,Dish Network,Communication Services
DG,Dollar General,Consumer Discretionary
DLTR,Dollar Tree,Consumer Discretionary
D,Dominion Energy,Utilities
DPZ,Domino's Pizza,Consumer Discretionary
DOV,Dover Corporation,Industrials
DOW,Dow Inc.,Materials
DTE,DTE Energy Co.,Utilities
DUK,Duke Energy,Utilities
DRE,Duke Realty Corp,Real Estate
DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,Materials
DXC,DXC Technology,Information Technology
EMN,Eastman Chemical,Materials
ETN,Eaton Corporation,Industrials
EBAY,eBay Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ECL,Ecolab Inc.,Materials
EIX,Edison Int'l,Utilities
EW,Edwards Lifesciences,Health Care
EA,Electronic Arts,Communication Services
EMR,Emerson Electric Company,Industrials
ENPH,Enphase Energy,Information Technology
ETR,Entergy Corp.,Utilities
EOG,EOG Resources,Energy
EFX,Equifax Inc.,Industrials
EQIX,Equinix,Real Estate
EQR,Equity Residential,Real Estate
ESS,Essex Property Trust Inc.,Real Estate
EL,Estée Lauder Companies,Consumer Staples
ETSY,Etsy,Consumer Discretionary
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,Financials
EVRG,Evergy,Utilities
ES,Eversource Energy,Utilities
EXC,Exelon Corp.,Utilities
EXPE,Expedia Group,Consumer Discretionary
EXPD,Expeditors,Industrials
EXR,Extra Space Storage,Real Estate
XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,Energy
FFIV,F5 Networks,Information Technology
FB,Facebook Inc.,Communication Services
FAST,Fastenal Co,Industrials
FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,Real Estate
FDX,FedEx Corporation,Industrials
FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,Information Technology
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,Financials
FRC,First Republic Bank,Financials
FE,FirstEnergy Corp,Utilities
FISV,Fiserv Inc,Information Technology
FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,Information Technology
FLIR,FLIR Systems,Information Technology
FLS,Flowserve Corporation,Industrials
FMC,FMC Corporation,Materials
F,Ford Motor Company,Consumer Discretionary
FTNT,Fortinet,Information Technology
FTV,Fortive Corp,Industrials
FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,Industrials
FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),Communication Services
FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),Communication Services
BEN,Franklin Resources,Financials
FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,Materials
GPS,Gap Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,Consumer Discretionary
IT,Gartner Inc,Information Technology
GD,General Dynamics,Industrials
GE,General Electric,Industrials
GIS,General Mills,Consumer Staples
GM,General Motors,Consumer Discretionary
GPC,Genuine Parts,Consumer Discretionary
GILD,Gilead Sciences,Health Care
GPN,Global Payments Inc.,Information Technology
GL,Globe Life Inc.,Financials
GS,Goldman Sachs Group,Financials
GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,Industrials
HAL,Halliburton Co.,Energy
HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,Financials
HAS,Hasbro Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
HCA,HCA Healthcare,Health Care
PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,Real Estate
HSIC,Henry Schein,Health Care
HES,Hess Corporation,Energy
HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,Information Technology
HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,Energy
HOLX,Hologic,Health Care
HD,Home Depot,Consumer Discretionary
HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,Industrials
HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,Consumer Staples
HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,Real Estate
HWM,Howmet Aerospace,Industrials
HPQ,HP Inc.,Information Technology
HUM,Humana Inc.,Health Care
HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,Financials
HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,Industrials
IEX,IDEX Corporation,Industrials
IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,Health Care
INFO,IHS Markit,Industrials
ITW,Illinois Tool Works,Industrials
ILMN,Illumina Inc,Health Care
INCY,Incyte,Health Care
IR,Ingersoll Rand,Industrials
INTC,Intel Corp.,Information Technology
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,Financials
IBM,International Business Machines,Information Technology
IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,Materials
IP,International Paper,Materials
IPG,Interpublic Group,Communication Services
INTU,Intuit Inc.,Information Technology
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,Health Care
IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,Financials
IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,Information Technology
IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,Health Care
IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,Real Estate
JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,Industrials
JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,Information Technology
J,Jacobs Engineering Group,Industrials
SJM,JM Smucker,Consumer Staples
JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,Health Care
JCI,Johnson Controls International,Industrials
JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Financials
JNPR,Juniper Networks,Information Technology
KSU,Kansas City Southern,Industrials
K,Kellogg Co.,Consumer Staples
KEY,KeyCorp,Financials
KEYS,Keysight Technologies,Information Technology
KMB,Kimberly-Clark,Consumer Staples
KIM,Kimco Realty,Real Estate
KMI,Kinder Morgan,Energy
KLAC,KLA Corporation,Information Technology
KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,Consumer Staples
KR,Kroger Co.,Consumer Staples
LB,L Brands Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
LHX,L3Harris Technologies,Industrials
LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,Health Care
LRCX,Lam Research,Information Technology
LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,Consumer Staples
LVS,Las Vegas Sands,Consumer Discretionary
LEG,Leggett & Platt,Consumer Discretionary
LDOS,Leidos Holdings,Information Technology
LEN,Lennar Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,Health Care
LNC,Lincoln National,Financials
LIN,Linde plc,Materials
LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,Communication Services
LKQ,LKQ Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,Industrials
L,Loews Corp.,Financials
LOW,Lowe's Cos.,Consumer Discretionary
LUMN,Lumen Technologies,Communication Services
LYB,LyondellBasell,Materials
MTB,M&T Bank,Financials
MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,Energy
MPC,Marathon Petroleum,Energy
MKTX,MarketAxess,Financials
MAR,Marriott International,Consumer Discretionary
MMC,Marsh & McLennan,Financials
MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,Materials
MAS,Masco Corp.,Industrials
MA,Mastercard Inc.,Information Technology
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,Information Technology
MKC,McCormick & Co.,Consumer Staples
MCD,McDonald's Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
MCK,McKesson Corp.,Health Care
MDT,Medtronic plc,Health Care
MRK,Merck & Co.,Health Care
MET,MetLife Inc.,Financials
MTD,Mettler Toledo,Health Care
MGM,MGM Resorts International,Consumer Discretionary
MCHP,Microchip Technology,Information Technology
MU,Micron Technology,Information Technology
MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,Information Technology
MAA,Mid-America Apartments,Real Estate
MHK,Mohawk Industries,Consumer Discretionary
TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,Consumer Staples
MDLZ,Mondelez International,Consumer Staples
MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,Information Technology
MNST,Monster Beverage,Consumer Staples
MCO,Moody's Corp,Financials
MS,Morgan Stanley,Financials
MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,Information Technology
MSCI,MSCI Inc,Financials
NDAQ,Nasdaq Inc.,Financials
NTAP,NetApp,Information Technology
NFLX,Netflix Inc.,Communication Services
NWL,Newell Brands,Consumer Discretionary
NEM,Newmont Corporation,Materials
NWSA,News Corp (Class A),Communication Services
NWS,News Corp (Class B),Communication Services
NEE,NextEra Energy,Utilities
NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,Industrials
NKE,Nike Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
NI,NiSource Inc.,Utilities
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,Industrials
NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,Financials
NOC,Northrop Grumman,Industrials
NLOK,NortonLifeLock,Information Technology
NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,Consumer Discretionary
NOV,NOV Inc.,Energy
NRG,NRG Energy,Utilities
NUE,Nucor Corp.,Materials
NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,Information Technology
NVR,NVR Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,Consumer Discretionary
OXY,Occidental Petroleum,Energy
ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,Industrials
OMC,Omnicom Group,Communication Services
OKE,Oneok,Energy
ORCL,Oracle Corp.,Information Technology
OTIS,Otis Worldwide,Industrials
PCAR,Paccar,Industrials
PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,Materials
PH,Parker-Hannifin,Industrials
PAYX,Paychex Inc.,Information Technology
PAYC,Paycom,Information Technology
PYPL,PayPal,Information Technology
PNR,Pentair plc,Industrials
PBCT,People's United Financial,Financials
PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,Consumer Staples
PKI,PerkinElmer,Health Care
PRGO,Perrigo,Health Care
PFE,Pfizer Inc.,Health Care
PM,Philip Morris International,Consumer Staples
PSX,Phillips 66,Energy
PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,Utilities
PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,Energy
PNC,PNC Financial Services,Financials
POOL,Pool Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
PPG,PPG Industries,Materials
PPL,PPL Corp.,Utilities
PFG,Principal Financial Group,Financials
PG,Procter & Gamble,Consumer Staples
PGR,Progressive Corp.,Financials
PLD,Prologis,Real Estate
PRU,Prudential Financial,Financials
PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),Utilities
PSA,Public Storage,Real Estate
PHM,PulteGroup,Consumer Discretionary
PVH,PVH Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
QRVO,Qorvo,Information Technology
QCOM,Qualcomm,Information Technology
PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,Industrials
DGX,Quest Diagnostics,Health Care
RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
RJF,Raymond James Financial,Financials
RTX,Raytheon Technologies,Industrials
O,Realty Income Corporation,Real Estate
REG,Regency Centers Corporation,Real Estate
REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
RF,Regions Financial Corp.,Financials
RSG,Republic Services Inc,Industrials
RMD,ResMed,Health Care
RHI,Robert Half International,Industrials
ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,Industrials
ROL,Rollins Inc.,Industrials
ROP,Roper Technologies,Industrials
ROST,Ross Stores,Consumer Discretionary
RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,Consumer Discretionary
SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,Financials
CRM,Salesforce.com,Information Technology
SBAC,SBA Communications,Real Estate
SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,Energy
STX,Seagate Technology,Information Technology
SEE,Sealed Air,Materials
SRE,Sempra Energy,Utilities
NOW,ServiceNow,Information Technology
SHW,Sherwin-Williams,Materials
SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,Real Estate
SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,Information Technology
SLG,SL Green Realty,Real Estate
SNA,Snap-on,Industrials
SO,Southern Company,Utilities
LUV,Southwest Airlines,Industrials
SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,Industrials
SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
STT,State Street Corp.,Financials
STE,Steris,Health Care
SYK,Stryker Corp.,Health Care
SIVB,SVB Financial,Financials
SYF,Synchrony Financial,Financials
SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,Information Technology
SYY,Sysco Corp.,Consumer Staples
TMUS,T-Mobile US,Communication Services
TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,Financials
TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,Communication Services
TPR,Tapestry Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TGT,Target Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,Information Technology
TDY,Teledyne Technologies,Industrials
TFX,Teleflex,Health Care
TER,Teradyne,Information Technology
TSLA,Tesla Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TXN,Texas Instruments,Information Technology
TXT,Textron Inc.,Industrials
BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,Financials
CLX,The Clorox Company,Consumer Staples
COO,The Cooper Companies,Health Care
HSY,The Hershey Company,Consumer Staples
MOS,The Mosaic Company,Materials
TRV,The Travelers Companies,Financials
DIS,The Walt Disney Company,Communication Services
TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,Health Care
TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,Consumer Discretionary
TT,Trane Technologies plc,Industrials
TDG,TransDigm Group,Industrials
TRMB,Trimble Inc.,Information Technology
TFC,Truist Financial,Financials
TWTR,Twitter Inc.,Communication Services
TYL,Tyler Technologies,Information Technology
TSN,Tyson Foods,Consumer Staples
USB,U.S. Bancorp,Financials
UDR,UDR Inc.,Real Estate
ULTA,Ulta Beauty,Consumer Discretionary
UAA,Under Armour (Class A),Consumer Discretionary
UA,Under Armour (Class C),Consumer Discretionary
UNP,Union Pacific Corp,Industrials
UAL,United Airlines Holdings,Industrials
UPS,United Parcel Service,Industrials
URI,United Rentals Inc.,Industrials
UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,Health Care
UHS,Universal Health Services,Health Care
UNM,Unum Group,Financials
VLO,Valero Energy,Energy
VAR,Varian Medical Systems,Health Care
VTR,Ventas Inc,Real Estate
VRSN,Verisign Inc.,Information Technology
VRSK,Verisk Analytics,Industrials
VZ,Verizon Communications,Communication Services
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,Health Care
VFC,VF Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
VIAC,ViacomCBS,Communication Services
VTRS,Viatris,Health Care
V,Visa Inc.,Information Technology
VNT,Vontier,Information Technology
VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,Real Estate
VMC,Vulcan Materials,Materials
WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,Financials
WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,Consumer Staples
WMT,Walmart,Consumer Staples
WM,Waste Management Inc.,Industrials
WAT,Waters Corporation,Health Care
WEC,WEC Energy Group,Utilities
WFC,Wells Fargo,Financials
WELL,Welltower Inc.,Real Estate
WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,Health Care
WDC,Western Digital,Information Technology
WU,Western Union Co,Information Technology
WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,Industrials
WRK,WestRock,Materials
WY,Weyerhaeuser,Real Estate
WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
WMB,Williams Companies,Energy
WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,Financials
WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,Consumer Discretionary
XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,Utilities
XRX,Xerox,Information Technology
XLNX,Xilinx,Information Technology
XYL,Xylem Inc.,Industrials
YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,Information Technology
ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,Health Care
ZION,Zions Bancorp,Financials
ZTS,Zoetis,Health Care
1 Symbol Name Sector
2 MMM 3M Company Industrials
3 AOS A.O. Smith Corp Industrials
4 ABT Abbott Laboratories Health Care
5 ABBV AbbVie Inc. Health Care
6 ABMD Abiomed Health Care
7 ACN Accenture Information Technology
8 ATVI Activision Blizzard Communication Services
9 ADBE Adobe Inc. Information Technology
10 AAP Advance Auto Parts Consumer Discretionary
11 AMD Advanced Micro Devices Information Technology
12 AES AES Corp Utilities
13 AFL Aflac Financials
14 A Agilent Technologies Health Care
15 APD Air Products & Chemicals Materials
16 AKAM Akamai Technologies Information Technology
17 ALK Alaska Air Group Industrials
18 ALB Albemarle Corporation Materials
19 ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities Real Estate
20 ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals Health Care
21 ALGN Align Technology Health Care
22 ALLE Allegion Industrials
23 LNT Alliant Energy Utilities
24 ALL Allstate Corp Financials
25 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) Communication Services
26 GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Communication Services
27 MO Altria Group Inc Consumer Staples
28 AMZN Amazon.com Inc. Consumer Discretionary
29 AMCR Amcor plc Materials
30 AEE Ameren Corp Utilities
31 AAL American Airlines Group Industrials
32 AEP American Electric Power Utilities
33 AXP American Express Financials
34 AIG American International Group Financials
35 AMT American Tower Corp. Real Estate
36 AWK American Water Works Utilities
37 AMP Ameriprise Financial Financials
38 ABC AmerisourceBergen Health Care
39 AME Ametek Industrials
40 AMGN Amgen Inc. Health Care
41 APH Amphenol Corp Information Technology
42 ADI Analog Devices Inc. Information Technology
43 ANSS ANSYS Inc. Information Technology
44 ANTM Anthem Health Care
45 AON Aon plc Financials
46 APA APA Corporation Energy
47 AAPL Apple Inc. Information Technology
48 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. Information Technology
49 APTV Aptiv PLC Consumer Discretionary
50 ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Consumer Staples
51 ANET Arista Networks Information Technology
52 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financials
53 AIZ Assurant Financials
54 T AT&T Inc. Communication Services
55 ATO Atmos Energy Utilities
56 ADSK Autodesk Inc. Information Technology
57 ADP Automatic Data Processing Information Technology
58 AZO AutoZone Inc Consumer Discretionary
59 AVB AvalonBay Communities Real Estate
60 AVY Avery Dennison Corp Materials
61 BKR Baker Hughes Co Energy
62 BLL Ball Corp Materials
63 BAC Bank of America Corp Financials
64 BAX Baxter International Inc. Health Care
65 BDX Becton Dickinson Health Care
66 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Financials
67 BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Consumer Discretionary
68 BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories Health Care
69 BIIB Biogen Inc. Health Care
70 BLK BlackRock Financials
71 BA Boeing Company Industrials
72 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
73 BWA BorgWarner Consumer Discretionary
74 BXP Boston Properties Real Estate
75 BSX Boston Scientific Health Care
76 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Health Care
77 AVGO Broadcom Inc. Information Technology
78 BR Broadridge Financial Solutions Information Technology
79 BF.B Brown-Forman Corp. Consumer Staples
80 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide Industrials
81 COG Cabot Oil & Gas Energy
82 CDNS Cadence Design Systems Information Technology
83 CPB Campbell Soup Consumer Staples
84 COF Capital One Financial Financials
85 CAH Cardinal Health Inc. Health Care
86 KMX Carmax Inc Consumer Discretionary
87 CCL Carnival Corp. Consumer Discretionary
88 CARR Carrier Global Industrials
89 CTLT Catalent Health Care
90 CAT Caterpillar Inc. Industrials
91 CBOE Cboe Global Markets Financials
92 CBRE CBRE Group Real Estate
93 CDW CDW Information Technology
94 CE Celanese Materials
95 CNC Centene Corporation Health Care
96 CNP CenterPoint Energy Utilities
97 CERN Cerner Health Care
98 CF CF Industries Holdings Inc Materials
99 SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation Financials
100 CHTR Charter Communications Communication Services
101 CVX Chevron Corp. Energy
102 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Consumer Discretionary
103 CB Chubb Limited Financials
104 CHD Church & Dwight Consumer Staples
105 CI Cigna Health Care
106 CINF Cincinnati Financial Financials
107 CTAS Cintas Corporation Industrials
108 CSCO Cisco Systems Information Technology
109 C Citigroup Inc. Financials
110 CFG Citizens Financial Group Financials
111 CTXS Citrix Systems Information Technology
112 CME CME Group Inc. Financials
113 CMS CMS Energy Utilities
114 KO Coca-Cola Company Consumer Staples
115 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Information Technology
116 CL Colgate-Palmolive Consumer Staples
117 CMCSA Comcast Corp. Communication Services
118 CMA Comerica Inc. Financials
119 CAG Conagra Brands Consumer Staples
120 COP ConocoPhillips Energy
121 ED Consolidated Edison Utilities
122 STZ Constellation Brands Consumer Staples
123 CPRT Copart Inc Industrials
124 GLW Corning Inc. Information Technology
125 CTVA Corteva Materials
126 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. Consumer Staples
127 CCI Crown Castle Real Estate
128 CSX CSX Corp. Industrials
129 CMI Cummins Inc. Industrials
130 CVS CVS Health Health Care
131 DHI D. R. Horton Consumer Discretionary
132 DHR Danaher Corp. Health Care
133 DRI Darden Restaurants Consumer Discretionary
134 DVA DaVita Inc. Health Care
135 DE Deere & Co. Industrials
136 DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Industrials
137 XRAY Dentsply Sirona Health Care
138 DVN Devon Energy Energy
139 DXCM DexCom Health Care
140 FANG Diamondback Energy Energy
141 DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc Real Estate
142 DFS Discover Financial Services Financials
143 DISCA Discovery Inc. (Series A) Communication Services
144 DISCK Discovery Inc. (Series C) Communication Services
145 DISH Dish Network Communication Services
146 DG Dollar General Consumer Discretionary
147 DLTR Dollar Tree Consumer Discretionary
148 D Dominion Energy Utilities
149 DPZ Domino's Pizza Consumer Discretionary
150 DOV Dover Corporation Industrials
151 DOW Dow Inc. Materials
152 DTE DTE Energy Co. Utilities
153 DUK Duke Energy Utilities
154 DRE Duke Realty Corp Real Estate
155 DD DuPont de Nemours Inc Materials
156 DXC DXC Technology Information Technology
157 EMN Eastman Chemical Materials
158 ETN Eaton Corporation Industrials
159 EBAY eBay Inc. Consumer Discretionary
160 ECL Ecolab Inc. Materials
161 EIX Edison Int'l Utilities
162 EW Edwards Lifesciences Health Care
163 EA Electronic Arts Communication Services
164 EMR Emerson Electric Company Industrials
165 ENPH Enphase Energy Information Technology
166 ETR Entergy Corp. Utilities
167 EOG EOG Resources Energy
168 EFX Equifax Inc. Industrials
169 EQIX Equinix Real Estate
170 EQR Equity Residential Real Estate
171 ESS Essex Property Trust Inc. Real Estate
172 EL Estée Lauder Companies Consumer Staples
173 ETSY Etsy Consumer Discretionary
174 RE Everest Re Group Ltd. Financials
175 EVRG Evergy Utilities
176 ES Eversource Energy Utilities
177 EXC Exelon Corp. Utilities
178 EXPE Expedia Group Consumer Discretionary
179 EXPD Expeditors Industrials
180 EXR Extra Space Storage Real Estate
181 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. Energy
182 FFIV F5 Networks Information Technology
183 FB Facebook Inc. Communication Services
184 FAST Fastenal Co Industrials
185 FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust Real Estate
186 FDX FedEx Corporation Industrials
187 FIS Fidelity National Information Services Information Technology
188 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Financials
189 FRC First Republic Bank Financials
190 FE FirstEnergy Corp Utilities
191 FISV Fiserv Inc Information Technology
192 FLT FleetCor Technologies Inc Information Technology
193 FLIR FLIR Systems Information Technology
194 FLS Flowserve Corporation Industrials
195 FMC FMC Corporation Materials
196 F Ford Motor Company Consumer Discretionary
197 FTNT Fortinet Information Technology
198 FTV Fortive Corp Industrials
199 FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security Industrials
200 FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) Communication Services
201 FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) Communication Services
202 BEN Franklin Resources Financials
203 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Materials
204 GPS Gap Inc. Consumer Discretionary
205 GRMN Garmin Ltd. Consumer Discretionary
206 IT Gartner Inc Information Technology
207 GD General Dynamics Industrials
208 GE General Electric Industrials
209 GIS General Mills Consumer Staples
210 GM General Motors Consumer Discretionary
211 GPC Genuine Parts Consumer Discretionary
212 GILD Gilead Sciences Health Care
213 GPN Global Payments Inc. Information Technology
214 GL Globe Life Inc. Financials
215 GS Goldman Sachs Group Financials
216 GWW Grainger (W.W.) Inc. Industrials
217 HAL Halliburton Co. Energy
218 HBI Hanesbrands Inc Consumer Discretionary
219 HIG Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. Financials
220 HAS Hasbro Inc. Consumer Discretionary
221 HCA HCA Healthcare Health Care
222 PEAK Healthpeak Properties Real Estate
223 HSIC Henry Schein Health Care
224 HES Hess Corporation Energy
225 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Information Technology
226 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
227 HFC HollyFrontier Corp Energy
228 HOLX Hologic Health Care
229 HD Home Depot Consumer Discretionary
230 HON Honeywell Int'l Inc. Industrials
231 HRL Hormel Foods Corp. Consumer Staples
232 HST Host Hotels & Resorts Real Estate
233 HWM Howmet Aerospace Industrials
234 HPQ HP Inc. Information Technology
235 HUM Humana Inc. Health Care
236 HBAN Huntington Bancshares Financials
237 HII Huntington Ingalls Industries Industrials
238 IEX IDEX Corporation Industrials
239 IDXX Idexx Laboratories Health Care
240 INFO IHS Markit Industrials
241 ITW Illinois Tool Works Industrials
242 ILMN Illumina Inc Health Care
243 INCY Incyte Health Care
244 IR Ingersoll Rand Industrials
245 INTC Intel Corp. Information Technology
246 ICE Intercontinental Exchange Financials
247 IBM International Business Machines Information Technology
248 IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Materials
249 IP International Paper Materials
250 IPG Interpublic Group Communication Services
251 INTU Intuit Inc. Information Technology
252 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. Health Care
253 IVZ Invesco Ltd. Financials
254 IPGP IPG Photonics Corp. Information Technology
255 IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. Health Care
256 IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated Real Estate
257 JBHT J. B. Hunt Transport Services Industrials
258 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates Information Technology
259 J Jacobs Engineering Group Industrials
260 SJM JM Smucker Consumer Staples
261 JNJ Johnson & Johnson Health Care
262 JCI Johnson Controls International Industrials
263 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financials
264 JNPR Juniper Networks Information Technology
265 KSU Kansas City Southern Industrials
266 K Kellogg Co. Consumer Staples
267 KEY KeyCorp Financials
268 KEYS Keysight Technologies Information Technology
269 KMB Kimberly-Clark Consumer Staples
270 KIM Kimco Realty Real Estate
271 KMI Kinder Morgan Energy
272 KLAC KLA Corporation Information Technology
273 KHC Kraft Heinz Co Consumer Staples
274 KR Kroger Co. Consumer Staples
275 LB L Brands Inc. Consumer Discretionary
276 LHX L3Harris Technologies Industrials
277 LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holding Health Care
278 LRCX Lam Research Information Technology
279 LW Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Consumer Staples
280 LVS Las Vegas Sands Consumer Discretionary
281 LEG Leggett & Platt Consumer Discretionary
282 LDOS Leidos Holdings Information Technology
283 LEN Lennar Corp. Consumer Discretionary
284 LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. Health Care
285 LNC Lincoln National Financials
286 LIN Linde plc Materials
287 LYV Live Nation Entertainment Communication Services
288 LKQ LKQ Corporation Consumer Discretionary
289 LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. Industrials
290 L Loews Corp. Financials
291 LOW Lowe's Cos. Consumer Discretionary
292 LUMN Lumen Technologies Communication Services
293 LYB LyondellBasell Materials
294 MTB M&T Bank Financials
295 MRO Marathon Oil Corp. Energy
296 MPC Marathon Petroleum Energy
297 MKTX MarketAxess Financials
298 MAR Marriott International Consumer Discretionary
299 MMC Marsh & McLennan Financials
300 MLM Martin Marietta Materials Materials
301 MAS Masco Corp. Industrials
302 MA Mastercard Inc. Information Technology
303 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Information Technology
304 MKC McCormick & Co. Consumer Staples
305 MCD McDonald's Corp. Consumer Discretionary
306 MCK McKesson Corp. Health Care
307 MDT Medtronic plc Health Care
308 MRK Merck & Co. Health Care
309 MET MetLife Inc. Financials
310 MTD Mettler Toledo Health Care
311 MGM MGM Resorts International Consumer Discretionary
312 MCHP Microchip Technology Information Technology
313 MU Micron Technology Information Technology
314 MSFT Microsoft Corp. Information Technology
315 MAA Mid-America Apartments Real Estate
316 MHK Mohawk Industries Consumer Discretionary
317 TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company Consumer Staples
318 MDLZ Mondelez International Consumer Staples
319 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Information Technology
320 MNST Monster Beverage Consumer Staples
321 MCO Moody's Corp Financials
322 MS Morgan Stanley Financials
323 MSI Motorola Solutions Inc. Information Technology
324 MSCI MSCI Inc Financials
325 NDAQ Nasdaq Inc. Financials
326 NTAP NetApp Information Technology
327 NFLX Netflix Inc. Communication Services
328 NWL Newell Brands Consumer Discretionary
329 NEM Newmont Corporation Materials
330 NWSA News Corp (Class A) Communication Services
331 NWS News Corp (Class B) Communication Services
332 NEE NextEra Energy Utilities
333 NLSN Nielsen Holdings Industrials
334 NKE Nike Inc. Consumer Discretionary
335 NI NiSource Inc. Utilities
336 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. Industrials
337 NTRS Northern Trust Corp. Financials
338 NOC Northrop Grumman Industrials
339 NLOK NortonLifeLock Information Technology
340 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Consumer Discretionary
341 NOV NOV Inc. Energy
342 NRG NRG Energy Utilities
343 NUE Nucor Corp. Materials
344 NVDA Nvidia Corporation Information Technology
345 NVR NVR Inc. Consumer Discretionary
346 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Consumer Discretionary
347 OXY Occidental Petroleum Energy
348 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Industrials
349 OMC Omnicom Group Communication Services
350 OKE Oneok Energy
351 ORCL Oracle Corp. Information Technology
352 OTIS Otis Worldwide Industrials
353 PCAR Paccar Industrials
354 PKG Packaging Corporation of America Materials
355 PH Parker-Hannifin Industrials
356 PAYX Paychex Inc. Information Technology
357 PAYC Paycom Information Technology
358 PYPL PayPal Information Technology
359 PNR Pentair plc Industrials
360 PBCT People's United Financial Financials
361 PEP PepsiCo Inc. Consumer Staples
362 PKI PerkinElmer Health Care
363 PRGO Perrigo Health Care
364 PFE Pfizer Inc. Health Care
365 PM Philip Morris International Consumer Staples
366 PSX Phillips 66 Energy
367 PNW Pinnacle West Capital Utilities
368 PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Energy
369 PNC PNC Financial Services Financials
370 POOL Pool Corporation Consumer Discretionary
371 PPG PPG Industries Materials
372 PPL PPL Corp. Utilities
373 PFG Principal Financial Group Financials
374 PG Procter & Gamble Consumer Staples
375 PGR Progressive Corp. Financials
376 PLD Prologis Real Estate
377 PRU Prudential Financial Financials
378 PEG Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Utilities
379 PSA Public Storage Real Estate
380 PHM PulteGroup Consumer Discretionary
381 PVH PVH Corp. Consumer Discretionary
382 QRVO Qorvo Information Technology
383 QCOM Qualcomm Information Technology
384 PWR Quanta Services Inc. Industrials
385 DGX Quest Diagnostics Health Care
386 RL Ralph Lauren Corporation Consumer Discretionary
387 RJF Raymond James Financial Financials
388 RTX Raytheon Technologies Industrials
389 O Realty Income Corporation Real Estate
390 REG Regency Centers Corporation Real Estate
391 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Health Care
392 RF Regions Financial Corp. Financials
393 RSG Republic Services Inc Industrials
394 RMD ResMed Health Care
395 RHI Robert Half International Industrials
396 ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials
397 ROL Rollins Inc. Industrials
398 ROP Roper Technologies Industrials
399 ROST Ross Stores Consumer Discretionary
400 RCL Royal Caribbean Group Consumer Discretionary
401 SPGI S&P Global Inc. Financials
402 CRM Salesforce.com Information Technology
403 SBAC SBA Communications Real Estate
404 SLB Schlumberger Ltd. Energy
405 STX Seagate Technology Information Technology
406 SEE Sealed Air Materials
407 SRE Sempra Energy Utilities
408 NOW ServiceNow Information Technology
409 SHW Sherwin-Williams Materials
410 SPG Simon Property Group Inc Real Estate
411 SWKS Skyworks Solutions Information Technology
412 SLG SL Green Realty Real Estate
413 SNA Snap-on Industrials
414 SO Southern Company Utilities
415 LUV Southwest Airlines Industrials
416 SWK Stanley Black & Decker Industrials
417 SBUX Starbucks Corp. Consumer Discretionary
418 STT State Street Corp. Financials
419 STE Steris Health Care
420 SYK Stryker Corp. Health Care
421 SIVB SVB Financial Financials
422 SYF Synchrony Financial Financials
423 SNPS Synopsys Inc. Information Technology
424 SYY Sysco Corp. Consumer Staples
425 TMUS T-Mobile US Communication Services
426 TROW T. Rowe Price Group Financials
427 TTWO Take-Two Interactive Communication Services
428 TPR Tapestry Inc. Consumer Discretionary
429 TGT Target Corp. Consumer Discretionary
430 TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Information Technology
431 TDY Teledyne Technologies Industrials
432 TFX Teleflex Health Care
433 TER Teradyne Information Technology
434 TSLA Tesla Inc. Consumer Discretionary
435 TXN Texas Instruments Information Technology
436 TXT Textron Inc. Industrials
437 BK The Bank of New York Mellon Financials
438 CLX The Clorox Company Consumer Staples
439 COO The Cooper Companies Health Care
440 HSY The Hershey Company Consumer Staples
441 MOS The Mosaic Company Materials
442 TRV The Travelers Companies Financials
443 DIS The Walt Disney Company Communication Services
444 TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Health Care
445 TJX TJX Companies Inc. Consumer Discretionary
446 TSCO Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary
447 TT Trane Technologies plc Industrials
448 TDG TransDigm Group Industrials
449 TRMB Trimble Inc. Information Technology
450 TFC Truist Financial Financials
451 TWTR Twitter Inc. Communication Services
452 TYL Tyler Technologies Information Technology
453 TSN Tyson Foods Consumer Staples
454 USB U.S. Bancorp Financials
455 UDR UDR Inc. Real Estate
456 ULTA Ulta Beauty Consumer Discretionary
457 UAA Under Armour (Class A) Consumer Discretionary
458 UA Under Armour (Class C) Consumer Discretionary
459 UNP Union Pacific Corp Industrials
460 UAL United Airlines Holdings Industrials
461 UPS United Parcel Service Industrials
462 URI United Rentals Inc. Industrials
463 UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. Health Care
464 UHS Universal Health Services Health Care
465 UNM Unum Group Financials
466 VLO Valero Energy Energy
467 VAR Varian Medical Systems Health Care
468 VTR Ventas Inc Real Estate
469 VRSN Verisign Inc. Information Technology
470 VRSK Verisk Analytics Industrials
471 VZ Verizon Communications Communication Services
472 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Health Care
473 VFC VF Corporation Consumer Discretionary
474 VIAC ViacomCBS Communication Services
475 VTRS Viatris Health Care
476 V Visa Inc. Information Technology
477 VNT Vontier Information Technology
478 VNO Vornado Realty Trust Real Estate
479 VMC Vulcan Materials Materials
480 WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation Financials
481 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Consumer Staples
482 WMT Walmart Consumer Staples
483 WM Waste Management Inc. Industrials
484 WAT Waters Corporation Health Care
485 WEC WEC Energy Group Utilities
486 WFC Wells Fargo Financials
487 WELL Welltower Inc. Real Estate
488 WST West Pharmaceutical Services Health Care
489 WDC Western Digital Information Technology
490 WU Western Union Co Information Technology
491 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp Industrials
492 WRK WestRock Materials
493 WY Weyerhaeuser Real Estate
494 WHR Whirlpool Corp. Consumer Discretionary
495 WMB Williams Companies Energy
496 WLTW Willis Towers Watson Financials
497 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd Consumer Discretionary
498 XEL Xcel Energy Inc Utilities
499 XRX Xerox Information Technology
500 XLNX Xilinx Information Technology
501 XYL Xylem Inc. Industrials
502 YUM Yum! Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary
503 ZBRA Zebra Technologies Information Technology
504 ZBH Zimmer Biomet Health Care
505 ZION Zions Bancorp Financials
506 ZTS Zoetis Health Care

1
input/old/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_json.json
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1
input/old/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/validation_report.json
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@ -1 +0,0 @@
[{"time": 0.66, "valid": true, "error-count": 0, "table-count": 1, "tables": [{"time": 0.625, "valid": true, "error-count": 0, "row-count": 506, "source": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/rawstore.datahub.io/1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d.csv", "headers": ["Symbol", "Name", "Sector"], "scheme": "https", "format": "csv", "encoding": "utf-8", "schema": "table-schema", "errors": []}], "warnings": [], "preset": "table", "resource": "constituents"}]

201
input/old/s-and-p-500-companies/old/datapackage.json
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@ -1,201 +0,0 @@
{
"bytes": 78687,
"datahub": {
"created": "2017-11-09T01:06:00.622796",
"findability": "published",
"flowid": "core/s-and-p-500-companies/149",
"modified": "2021-03-17T01:40:06.415706",
"owner": "core",
"ownerid": "core"
},
"hash": "e8b22e1f8c18b4b0cd38f408b5279899",
"id": "core/s-and-p-500-companies",
"licenses": [
{
"name": "ODC-PDDL-1.0",
"path": "http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/pddl/",
"title": "Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and License v1.0"
}
],
"name": "s-and-p-500-companies",
"related": [
{
"formats": [
"CSV",
"JSON"
],
"path": "/core/s-and-p-500",
"publisher": "core",
"title": "S&P 500 Index Data"
},
{
"formats": [
"CSV",
"JSON"
],
"path": "/core/s-and-p-500-companies-financials",
"publisher": "core",
"title": "S&P 500 Companies with Financial Information"
},
{
"formats": [
"CSV",
"JSON"
],
"path": "/core/finance-vix",
"publisher": "core",
"title": "VIX - CBOE Volatility Index"
},
{
"formats": [
"CSV",
"JSON"
],
"path": "/core/nyse-other-listings",
"publisher": "core",
"title": "NYSE and Other Listings"
}
],
"resources": [
{
"bytes": 18532,
"datahub": {
"type": "original"
},
"dpp:streamedFrom": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/rawstore.datahub.io/1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d.csv",
"encoding": "UTF-8",
"format": "csv",
"mediatype": "text/csv",
"name": "constituents_original",
"path": "archive/constituents.csv",
"pathType": "local",
"profile": "data-resource",
"schema": {
"fields": [
{
"description": "",
"name": "Symbol",
"type": "string"
},
{
"description": "",
"name": "Name",
"type": "string"
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}
]
}
},
{
"bytes": 443,
"datahub": {
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},
"description": "Validation report for tabular data",
"dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmpcfyetuna/core/s-and-p-500-companies/validation_report/data/f1bdbd2a66a2fc5ef52b333758457e0d/validation_report.json",
"format": "json",
"hash": "f1bdbd2a66a2fc5ef52b333758457e0d",
"name": "validation_report",
"path": "data/validation_report.json",
"profile": "data-resource"
},
{
"bytes": 19038,
"datahub": {
"derivedFrom": [
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],
"type": "derived/csv"
},
"dialect": {
"delimiter": ",",
"doubleQuote": true,
"lineTerminator": "\r\n",
"quoteChar": "\"",
"skipInitialSpace": false
},
"dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmpcfyetuna/core/s-and-p-500-companies/constituents_csv/data/1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d/constituents_csv.csv",
"encoding": "utf-8",
"format": "csv",
"hash": "1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d",
"mediatype": "text/csv",
"name": "constituents_csv",
"path": "data/constituents_csv.csv",
"pathType": "local",
"profile": "data-resource",
"rowcount": 505,
"schema": {
"fields": [
{
"description": "",
"name": "Symbol",
"type": "string"
},
{
"description": "",
"name": "Name",
"type": "string"
},
{
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"name": "Sector",
"type": "string"
}
]
},
"signed": true
},
{
"bytes": 37708,
"datahub": {
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],
"type": "derived/json"
},
"dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmpcfyetuna/core/s-and-p-500-companies/constituents_json/data/f8fb673fdae858aa28510157836b65c2/constituents_json.json",
"encoding": "utf-8",
"format": "json",
"hash": "f8fb673fdae858aa28510157836b65c2",
"mediatype": "text/csv",
"name": "constituents_json",
"path": "data/constituents_json.json",
"pathType": "local",
"profile": "data-resource",
"rowcount": 505,
"schema": {
"fields": [
{
"description": "",
"name": "Symbol",
"type": "string"
},
{
"description": "",
"name": "Name",
"type": "string"
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{
"description": "",
"name": "Sector",
"type": "string"
}
]
},
"signed": true
},
{
"bytes": 2966,
"dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmp167f5ya8/README.md",
"format": "md",
"name": "readme",
"path": "README.md"
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],
"title": "S&P 500 Companies with Financial Information",
"version": "1.0"
}

2072
input/old/xrisk-question-old1s.json
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8
input/privatekeys_example.json
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@ -1,8 +0,0 @@
{
"csetforetell": "_cset_prod_fof_session=xxx; landing_url=https://www.cset-foretell.com/; randomization_seed=xxx; remember_user_token=xxx; ",
"goodjudmentopen": "__cfduid=xxx; _gj_prod_flyover_forecasts_session=xxx; randomization_seed=xxx; referring_url=https://www.gjopen.com/; remember_user_token=xxx;",
"hypermind": "lumAuth=xxxx:yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy",
"mongodb": "mongodb+srv://<username>:<password>@<mongodbclusterurl>/?retryWrites=true&w=majority&useNewUrlParser=true&useUnifiedTopology=true",
"netlify": "https://api.netlify.com/build_hooks/<netlifysecretnumber>?trigger_title=<some_title>",
"algolia": "6ofolyptm956j9uuev3q4v81vjbqrkp2--not an actual key"
}

3
src/backend/frontpage.ts
View File

@ -1,8 +1,5 @@
import { pgRead, readWritePool } from './database/pg-wrapper';
// TODO - move to global `constants.ts` config
const location = "/Users/berekuk/coding/quri/metaforecast-backend/data";
export async function getFrontpageRaw() {
const client = await readWritePool.connect();
const res = await client.query(

1
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/coupcast-fetch.js
View File

@ -159,7 +159,6 @@ async function processArray(countryArray) {
}
/* Body */
let filePath = "./data/coupcast-raw-download.csv"; // not used right now.
export async function coupcast() {
let csvContent = await axios

1
src/backend/platforms/deprecated/elicit-fetch.js
View File

@ -104,7 +104,6 @@ async function awaitdownloadconfirmation(message, callback) {
}
/* Body */
let filePath = "./data/elicit-binary_export.csv";
export async function elicit() {
let csvContent = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint).then((query) => query.data);

3
src/backend/platforms/givewellopenphil-fetch.js
View File

@ -4,9 +4,6 @@ import fs from "fs";
import { databaseUpsert } from "../database/database-wrapper.js";
import { calculateStars } from "../utils/stars.js";
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "./data/";
/* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(url) {
let response = await axios({